cosmo general meeting 2011 wg5 parallel session 5 september 2011
DESCRIPTION
Verification results at MeteoSwiss in the year 2011 Francis Schubiger, Vanessa Stauch, Tanja Weusthoff, Pirmin Kaufmann MeteoSwiss. COSMO General Meeting 2011 WG5 Parallel Session 5 September 2011. Content. results of the operational verification in 2011 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
Verification resultsat MeteoSwiss in the year 2011
Francis Schubiger, Vanessa Stauch,Tanja Weusthoff, Pirmin Kaufmann
MeteoSwiss
COSMO General Meeting 2011
WG5 Parallel Session 5 September 2011
2 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
Content
• results of the operational verification in 2011
• separate verification of all eight daily COSMO-2 forecasts
• neighborhood verification (also weather type dependant)
• COSMO-2 03 UTC forecasts up to +48h
• extension of Beth Ebert‘s package: -> „fuzzy in time“
3 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
• Operational (COSMO-2, COSMO-7, COSMO-LEPS [mean], IFS):• Surface (3h-steps SYNOP and 1h-steps SMN [Swiss Met Net])
• psred, ps, T2m, Td2m, 10m-wind, cloud cover, gusts,precipitation (1h, 12h), global radiation
• Upper-air (TEMP)• T, RH, wind,
• Quasi-operational (COSMO-2, COSMO-7, IFS):• precipitation with RADAR (neighborhood/fuzzy verification, Ebert’s
package) also weather-type dependant• Monitoring: SMN (swiss SYNOPs) , RADAR, windprofilers• Ongoing in experimental modus:
• windprofiler over Switzerland• fluxes at Payerne
• New / Next developments:• VAD (locations of swiss radars)
=> All these packages should be replaced by VERSUS 2
Verification of COSMO-2, COSMO-7, COSMO-LEPS and IFS
4 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
T2m: mean diurnal cycle (first 24h forecasts)domain Switzerland (hourly SYNOP‘s)
V. Stauch, P. Kaufmann
OBS
COSMO-7
COSMO-2
Autumn 2010
Winter 2010/2011
Spring 2011
Summer 2011
5 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
T2m: mean diurnal cycle Spring 2011COSMO-7 vs IFSSYNOP‘s over COSMO-7 domain
OBS
COSMO-7
IFS
V. Stauch, P. Kaufmann
6 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
T2m: mean diurnal cycle Spring 2011COSMO-7 vs COSMO-LEPSSYNOP‘s over COSMO-7 domain
V. Stauch, P. Kaufmann
OBS
COSMO-7
COSMO-LEPS
7 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
Global radiation (inclined): Spring 2011COSMO-7 mean diurnal cycleSYNOP‘s over Switzerland
V. Stauch, P. Kaufmann
8 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
Global radiation (horizontal): Spring 2011COSMO-7 mean diurnal cycleSYNOP‘s over Switzerland
V. Stauch, P. Kaufmann
9 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
Precipitation: Spring 2011geographical distribution
precipitation12h sums
frequency bias(1 mm/12h)
Spring 2011
COSMO-7+24 & +48h
V. Stauch, P. Kaufmann
10 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
Precipitation (12h-sums +12 to +24h):Spring 2011 over Switzerland (SYNOP‘s)frequency bias: COSMO-7 & COSMO-2
observed frequency
V. Stauch
11 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
Precipitation (12h-sums +36 to +48h):Spring 2011 over Switzerland (SYNOP‘s)frequency bias: COSMO-7 & IFS
observed frequency
V. Stauch
12 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
Precipitation (12h-sums +12 to +24h):Spring 2011 over Switzerland (SYNOP‘s)COSMO-7 & COSMO-2
V. Stauch
for both models mean over 9 gridpoints foreach station
13 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
Precipitation (12h-sums):Spring 2011 over Switzerland (SYNOP‘s)COSMO-7 & IFS
V. Stauch
14 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
Hourly precipitation: diurnal cycleSwiss SYNOPs (1h acc) CH-radarcomposit (3h acc)
July
201
0
03 09 15 21 00
fcst: +12..+24h fcst: +3..+6hRADAR
COSMO-7
COSMO-2
COSMO-2
COSMO-7
SMN
Au
gu
st 2
010
RADAR
COSMO-7
COSMO-2
COSMO-2
COSMO-7
SMN
03 09 15 21 00
fcst: +12..+24h fcst: +3..+6h
V. Stauch
15 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
• 2m-temperature:
• cold bias in winter and warm bias in summer• positive bias more pronounced during nighttime• COSMO-2 ~0.5 K warmer (higher values) than COSMO-7
• 2m-dewpoint:• negative bias (~1 K) in the summer and autumn period
• 10m-windspeed:• negative bias along the coast and on mountains, positive bias inland
• total cloudiness:• mean daily cycle not well represented (mainly overestimation during night
and underestimation during day)• precipitation:
• overestimation (except in Summer ~ no bias) most pronounced in Winter (over COSMO-2 domain: 30-35% ; over Swizerland ~45%)
• higher amounts in COSMO-2 / higher amounts over Alpine area• low amounts (0.1 mm/12h): overestimated in Winter (over the Alps all
seasons)• high amounts (10 mm/12h): underestimated in COSMO-7 (over full domain
by ~30% in summer, 20% in winter)
Verification of surface weather parameters
16 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
TEMPS verification: Windspeed +24hWinter 10/11
COSMO-7
COSMO-2
all TEMPsCOSMO-2domain
17 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
• temperature: cold bias (~ 0.5 K) in winter and warm bias (~ 0.5 K) in summer from ground up to 300 hPa
• windspeed: positive bias in PBL (up to +1 m/s in winter) and slight negative bias above 400 hPa
Verification with vertical profiles: main results
18 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
Separate verification of the eight daily COSMO-2 forecasts• questions of interest:
• which is the best forecast for the afternoon/evening convection ? – is it the latest forecast or perhaps a forecast with a longer „spin up“ time ?
• are there significant differences between the eight forecasts ?
• period:COSMO-2 forecasts from 1 May to 31 July 2011• Verification with hourly obs over Switzerland
19 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
COSMO-2: precipitation diurnal cycleforecasts of 00, 03, 06 and 09 UTC
Vanessa Stauch
20 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
COSMO-2: precipitation diurnal cycleforecasts of 12, 15, 18 and 21 UTC
Vanessa Stauch
21 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
COSMO-2: precipitation diurnal cycleall eight daily forecasts
Vanessa Stauch
22 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
COSMO-2: 2m-temperature diurnal cycleall eight daily forecasts
Vanessa Stauch
23 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
COSMO-2: 2m-temperature biasall eight daily forecasts
Vanessa Stauch
24 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
COSMO-2: 10m-wind speed diurnal cycleall eight daily forecasts
Vanessa Stauch
27 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
results for 20103h accumulated precipitation sumsover the domain of the swiss radar composit
models: COSMO-2 and COSMO-7for all 8 daily forecast runs, precipitation sums from +3 to +6h
observation precipitation estimates of the swiss radar composit
in case of a missing value, the full date will not be evaluated
Neighborhood verification for precipitation
28 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
COSMO-2 COSMO-7 COSMO-2 - COSMO-7
- =
- =
goodbadCOSMO-7 better COSMO-2 better
Neighbourhood Verification, January–December 2010 3h sums (+3 ..+6h) Fractions Skill Score (top) and Upscaling (bottom)
Fractions Skill Score
Upscaling
T. Weusthoff
29 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
FSS, COSMO-2 minus COSMO-7, 2010
Winter Spring
AutumnSummer
numbers = FSS-Score of COSMO-2
colours = differences COSMO-2 minus COSMO-7
COSMO-2 better
COSMO-7 better
• COSMO-2: similar skill in all seasons
• COSMO-2 better than COSMO-7 on almost all scales
• COSMO-2 better than COSMO-7 especially in Winter and Summer
Tanja Weusthoff
32 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
NE
(11x)
N
(18x)
NW
(38x)
SE
(4x)
S
(10x)
SW
(49x)
E
(4x)
W
(56x)
F
(78x)
H
(73x)
L
(25x)
COSMO-7 better COSMO-2 better
differences in Fractions Skill Score for weather-type dependant verif
COSMO-2 minus COSMO-7
YEAR 2010
33 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
Summary neighbourhood Verifikation precipitation in 2010
• COSMO-2 better than COSMO-7 on all scales,differences become less with increasing leadtime
• good forecast of the spatial structure on higher scales
• The skill of the models varies for different weather types and the differences between COSMO-2 and COSMO-7 varies also:- best skill: Autumn and Spring, south to northwest weather types- greatest difference COSMO-2 minus COSMO-7: Summer and Winter, north- and east types, convective cases
Tanja Weusthoff
34 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
COSMO-2 03 UTC up to +48h:Comparison COSMO-2 to COSMO-7• period (full year): 1 June 2010 – 31 May 2011• Main interest:
• advance of COSMO-2 as compared to COSMO-7• question: “are the COSMO-2 forecasts at +48h
still better than those of COSMO-7” ?• Verification with:
• SYNOP over Switzerland (hourly):comparison +0 to +24h vs +24 to +48h
• Swiss RadarComposit: neighborhood Verifikation for four 12h-Summen (0..+12, +12..+24, +24..+36, +36..+48h)
• TEMPs for +21h and +45h
35 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
Verification SYNOP-CH: 2m-temperatureCOSMO-2 vs COSMO-7
COSMO-2COSMO-7
advance of COSMO-2 also in the second day
BIAS
MAE
VAL
STDE
V. Stauch
36 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
Verification SYNOP-CH: precipitation COSMO-2 vs COSMO-7 [+0 to +24h]
Frequency bias (mm/h)
COSMO-2COSMO-7
0.1 mm/h
10 mm/h
1.0 mm/h
V. Stauch
37 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
COSMO-2COSMO-7
0.1 mm/h
10 mm/h
1.0 mm/h
V. Stauch
Verification SYNOP-CH: precipitation COSMO-2 vs COSMO-7 [+24 to +48h]
Frequency bias (mm/h)
38 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
Verification with swiss radarcomposit
second forecast day
first forecast day+0.. +12h
+24..+36h
+12..+24h
+36..+48h
daytime: 03-15 UTC nighttime: 15-03 UTC
T. Weusthoff
COSMO-2 COSMO-7 COSMO-2 COSMO-7
COSMO-2 COSMO-7 COSMO-2 COSMO-7
39 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
FRACTIONS SKILL SCORE: COSMO-2 – COSMO-7precipitation sums of 12h
+ 0 .. + 12h
+ 24 .. + 36h
+ 12 .. + 24h
+ 36 .. + 48h
T. Weusthoff
COSMO-2 better
COSMO-7 better
40 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
UPSCALING: COSMO-2 – COSMO-7precipitation sums of 12h; score: ETS (equitable threat score)
+ 0 .. + 12h
+ 24 .. + 36h
+ 12 .. + 24h
+ 36 .. + 48h
T. Weusthoff
COSMO-2 better
COSMO-7 better
43 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
3. „Fuzzy in Time“
• Extension of the spatial window with a window in time volume (dx * dy * dt)
• Evaluation of the forecasts in this volume• Time-window ntm = [1h,3h,5h,7h,9h]
dt
dx
dy
T. Weusthoff
44 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
dxdy
dx
dymodel
observation
e.g. FSS
fraction blue pxiels model = 12/75 (dt=3), 5/25 (dt=1)
fraction blue pxiels obs = 12/75 (dt=3), 3/25 (dt=1)
t0
t0-1
t0+1
t0
t0-1
t0+1
T. Weusthoff
45 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1420 21 22 23
00-02
01-03
02-04
03-05
04-06
05-07
…
23-01
22-00
21-23
20-22
hourly accumulated precipitation
Evaluation of 3h accumulations, time window ntm = 5 (t0 +-2h)
00 UTC 03 UTC 06 UTC 08 UTC
22 UTC 02 UTC
01 UTC 05 UTC
3 hourly accumulated precipitation
Evaluation of 3h accumulations, time window ntm = 1
09 UTC00 UTC 03 UTC 06 UTC
23 UTC 01 UTC 02 UTC 04 UTC
T. Weusthoff
46 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
FSS for different time-windowsCOSMO-2, July 2010
T. Weusthoff
47 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011 T. Weusthoff
FSS for different time-windowsCOSMO-7, July 2010
48 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
FSS for different time-windows COSMO-2 minus COSMO-7, July 2010
T. Weusthoff
49 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011
Summary „fuzzy in time“
• FSS increases on all scales with increasing time-window• greatest effect for small spatical scales• lowest effect for high threshods
• Both models show a similar increase• difference COSMO-2 minus COSMO-7 stays equal, resp.
becomes littler for high time-windows
• For Upscaling the influence of a time tolerance is relatively low und restricted on low thresholds ( effect of the avergaing)
Application of time-windows on the gridsclae would make sense; simultaneous application with space tolerance brings no great change
T. Weusthoff
50 Verification results at MeteoSwiss in 2011
COSMO GM / WG5 Parallel Session, 05.09.2011