cosmo general meeting 2007 wg5 parallel session 18 september 2007

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss

WG5-Report from Switzerland:Verification of COSMO in the year 2007

Francis Schubiger, Pirmin Kaufmann, Christophe Hug, Emanuele Zala, Guy de Morsier, Daniel Leuenberger

MeteoSwiss

COSMO General Meeting 2007

WG5 Parallel Session 18 September 2007

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WG5-Report from Switzerland: Verification of COSMO in 2007

• Surface over Switzerland (1h-steps, ANETZ)• T2m, Td2m, 10m wind, cloud cover and precipitation

• Surface (3h-steps, SYNOP)• psred, ps, T2m, Td2m, 10m-wind, cloud cover and

precipitation• Upper-air (TEMP)

• T, RH, wind• integrated water vapor content with GPS data• Precipitation with RADAR • weather-type dependant verification with RADAR and TEMP• Fluxes at Payerne• Windprofiler Payerne and Kloten• VAD (locations of swiss radars)

COSMO: Verification packages

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Verification of surface weather parameters WP 5.1.1 and WP 5.1.7

• verification of COSMO surface weather parameters with SYNOP stations (every 3h) and with ANETZ (every 1h)• operational, ongoing as in 2006• extension to compute diurnal cycle in 3h-steps with

SYNOP data• results sent to the COSMO website

2m-temperature: mean error -> exaggerated diurnal amplitude and too high max in Spring 2007

spring 2007 summer 2007

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2m-temperature Spring 2007SYNOP stations

mean error

SYNOP&

COSMO-7

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2m-temperature Spring 2007Switzerland (ANETZ) gridpoints < 800m

increasing biaswith lead time

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Summary / main results in 2007

• 2m-temperature:• in Spring exaggerated amplitude, too high max

• precipitation:• extreme high positive bias at the borders of the

model (N and E) since Autumn 2006

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Dependency of lead-time for COSMO-222.06.07-09.07.07: 8 daily fcst up to +69h

+3 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +69 +3 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +69

standard deviation of errors at SYNOP-locations 2m-temperature 2m-dewpoint

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+3 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +69 +3 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +69


standard deviation of errors at SYNOP-locations pressure msl pressure

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+3 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +69 +3 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +69


standard deviation of errors at SYNOP-locations 10m-wind direction 10m-windspeed

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+3 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +69 +3 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60 +69


standard deviation of errors at SYNOP-locations cloud cover precipitation

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Verification of test chains in 2007:main results

• Runge-Kuttta shows a positive impact on temperature, wind and humidity in the atmosphere and for precipitation (reduction of the overestimation)

• Forecasts with newest BC from IFS (i.e. from 00 UTC instead of 18 UTC) shows some improvements but not as much as expected from an earlier testchain with also a later assmilation cycle with newest BC

• 6.6 km version (0.6 deg instead of 0.625 deg) gives very similar results

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Runge Kutta testchain:verification with SYNOP: pressure

opr

RKoprRK

Period: 10-23.01.2006

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Runge Kutta testchain:verification with SYNOP: precipitation

Period:10-23.01.2006

operational

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Runge Kutta testchain:verification with SYNOP: precipitation

Period:10-23.01.2006

Runge Kutta

reduction of precipitationoverestimation, due tomuch less high amounts(10 mm/12h)

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Runge Kutta testchain:verification with TEMP: temperature

4 periods:10-23.01.200615-28.05.200615-28.11.200602-15.08.2007

Runge Kutta operational

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Runge Kutta testchain:verification with TEMP: windspeed

Runge Kutta operational

4 periods:10-23.01.200615-28.05.200615-28.11.200602-15.08.2007

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Testchain new soil modelverification with TEMP: geopotential

Period: 1-31.12.2005

much better resultsdue to newest BCin assimilation cycleand forecasts ?

new soil model operational

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Testchain newest BC in forecastverification with TEMP: geopotential

period:17-31.03.2007

newest BC operational

newest BC =IFS BC from fcst of00 UTC instead of 18 UTC

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Testchain newest BC in forecastverification with TEMP: geopotential

period:09-23.06.2007

newest BC operational

newest BC =IFS BC from fcst of00 UTC instead of 18 UTC

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Exchange of maps at the COSMO website WP 5.1.6

new in 2007: charts on the common same area

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24h-precipitation 06.09.07 00 UTC: +6..+30hCOSMO-DE [DWD]

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24h-precipitation 06.09.07 00 UTC: +6..+30hCOSMO-7 [MeteoSwiss]

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24h-precipitation 06.09.07 00 UTC: +6..+30hCOSMO-PL [IMGW]

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24h-precipitation 06.09.07 00 UTC: +6..+30hCOSMO-I7 [ARPA-SIM]

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24h-precipitation 06.09.07 00 UTC: +6..+30hCOSMO-ME [CNMCA]

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2m-temperature errors (DMO & kalman) vs obsDavos April 2006 – March 2007

+0 .. +24h

+48 .. +72h

+24 .. +48h

cases with snow in model

COSMO-7blue dots : DMOgreen dots: kalman

Vanessa StauchProject OptiControl

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+0 .. +24h

+48 .. +72h

+24 .. +48h

2m-temperature errors vs obsDavos April 2006 – March 2007

only cases withsnow in model

blue dots : DMOgreen dots: kalman


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Probability density function2m-temperature Davos April 06 – March 07

blue dots : DMOgreen dots: kalman


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Subjective verification of COSMO-7 vs COSMO-2 by the forecasters of the three MeteoSwiss

forecasting centres in Spring 2007Overall Balance (all parameters and regions)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

much better better bit better same as good bit w orse w orse much w orse same as bad

% OverallBalance

cosmo general meeting 2007 wg5 parallel session 18 september 2007

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