cosecivi'15 - predicting the winner in two player starcraft games

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Predicting the Winner in Two Player StarCraft Games Antonio A. Sánchez-Ruiz Complutense University of Madrid CoSECiVi-2015, Barcelona

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Page 1: CoSECiVi'15 - Predicting the winner in two player StarCraft games

Predicting the Winner in Two Player StarCraft Games

Antonio A. Sánchez-Ruiz Complutense University of Madrid

CoSECiVi-2015, Barcelona

Page 2: CoSECiVi'15 - Predicting the winner in two player StarCraft games

   CoSECiVi 2015

StarCraft: Brood War

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StarCra&®:  Brood  War®  ©1998  Blizzard  Entertainment,  Inc.  All  rights  reserveda  

Page 3: CoSECiVi'15 - Predicting the winner in two player StarCraft games

   CoSECiVi 2015 3

StarCraft: Brood War

Page 4: CoSECiVi'15 - Predicting the winner in two player StarCraft games

   CoSECiVi 2015

StarCraft: Brood War

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Page 5: CoSECiVi'15 - Predicting the winner in two player StarCraft games

   CoSECiVi 2015

StarCraft: Brood War

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   CoSECiVi 2015

StarCraft: Brood War

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StarCra':  Brood  War  

CoSECiVi 2015

BWAPI

 BW

API  

Bot  

game  state  

commands  

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Page 8: CoSECiVi'15 - Predicting the winner in two player StarCraft games

   CoSECiVi 2015

RTS as testbeds for AI

q  RTS games are popular testbeds for AI researchers

q  Complex environments

q Macro vs. micro

q Adversarial

q Incomplete information

q  Controlled, reproducible

q  International competitions

q Different AIs against each other

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Page 9: CoSECiVi'15 - Predicting the winner in two player StarCraft games

   CoSECiVi 2015

Experiment Games

q  2 game AI Terran players

q  Expansion Terran Campaign Insane

q  Very balanced games

q  1 BWAPI observant player without units

q  100 games

q  1 map

q  Each player won 50% of the games

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StarCra':  Brood  War  

 BW

API  

Game  AI  1  

Game  AI  2  

Page 10: CoSECiVi'15 - Predicting the winner in two player StarCraft games

   CoSECiVi 2015

Game Duration

10

0

2

4

6

30 60 90 120time (min)

num

ber o

f gam

esDuration of games

q  Average game duration: 60.83 minutes

Page 11: CoSECiVi'15 - Predicting the winner in two player StarCraft games

   CoSECiVi 2015

Resources vs. Time

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1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

0 25 50 75 100time (%)

resources gas minerals

Page 12: CoSECiVi'15 - Predicting the winner in two player StarCraft games

   

0

20

40

60

0 25 50 75 100time (%)

units troops buildings

CoSECiVi 2015

Units vs. Time

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Page 13: CoSECiVi'15 - Predicting the winner in two player StarCraft games

   CoSECiVi 2015

Feature Selection

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game   frame   gas1   minerals1   svc1   marine1   …   gas2   minerals2   svn2   marine2   … winner  

1   9360   2936   2491   18   23   …   2984   2259   20   26   … 1  

1   9450   2952   2531   18   20   …   3000   2315   20   20   … 1  

1   9540   2968   2571   18   14   …   3024   2371   20   14   … 1  

1   9630   2892   2435   18   12   …   2940   2219   20   7   … 1  

q  1 sample each 5 seconds: 730 samples per game

q  56 features

q  Game and time

q  Resources, troops and buildings of each player

q Winner of that game

Page 14: CoSECiVi'15 - Predicting the winner in two player StarCraft games

   CoSECiVi 2015

AI Classification Algorithms

q  Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA)

q  Linear combination of features to separate clases. Gaussian distribution with class specific mean and common covariance matrix.

q  Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA)

q  Similar to LDA but with class specific covariance matrix.

q  Support Vector Machines (SVM)

q  Kernels to map inputs to high dimensional spaces.

q  k-Nearest Neighbour (KNN)

q  Instance based learning. Majority vote among the k nearest training samples.

q  Weighted K-Nearest Neighbor (KKNN) [12]

q  Kernels to weight neighbours according to their distances.

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Page 15: CoSECiVi'15 - Predicting the winner in two player StarCraft games

   CoSECiVi 2015

Parameter Selection and Global Accuracy

q  Parameter selection

q  10 fold cross validation on 30% of the samples

q  Global accuracy

q  80% training, 20% test

q Mean accuracy value of 16 executions

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Classifier   Accuracy   Parameters  

Base   0.5228  

LDA   0.6957  

QDA   0.7164  

SVM   0.6950   kernel  =  polynomial,  degree  =  3,  scale  =  0.1,  C  =  1  

k-­‐NN   0.6906   k  =  5  

kk-­‐NN   0.6908   kernel  =  opPmal,  kmax  =  9,  distance  =  2  

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0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0 25 50 75 100time (%)

accu

racy

classifier

lda

qda

svm

knn

kknn

CoSECiVi 2015

Accuracy vs. Time

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   CoSECiVi 2015

Accuracy vs. Training Set Size

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0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0 20 40 60 80number of games

accu

racy

classifier

lda

qda

svm

knn

kknn

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   CoSECiVi 2015

Stability vs. Time

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0

1

2

3

0 25 50 75time (%)

num

ber o

f sta

ble

gam

es

classifier

lda

qda

svm

knn

kknn

Page 19: CoSECiVi'15 - Predicting the winner in two player StarCraft games

   CoSECiVi 2015

Aggregated Stability vs. Time

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0

5

10

15

20

0 25 50 75time (%)

num

ber o

f sta

ble

gam

es

classifier

lda

qda

svm

knn

kknn

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   CoSECiVi 2015 20

Conclusions and Future Work

q  Academic AI and videogames

q  AI to improve game development or game experience

q  Games to improve or better understand AI techniques

q  More elaborate data representation

q  Spatial: influence maps

q  Time: game progression vs. snapshots

q  More realistic experiments

q  Different maps

q  Real games with human players

q  More useful predictions

q  Attacks and type of units, base expansions, player strategies …

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   CoSECiVi 2015

Thank you

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Predicting the Winner in Two Player StarCraft Games