corvelle drives concepts to completion. the future of the internet arma calgary february 10, 2010 2

Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion

Corvelle Drives Concepts to CompletionCorvelle Drives Concepts to Completion


The Futureof the Internet

ARMA CalgaryFebruary 10, 2010

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Yogi SchulzBiography

Partner in Corvelle Consulting Information technology related management

consulting Microsoft Canada columnist & CBC Radio host PPDM Association board member Industry presenter:

– Project World - 5 years– CIPS Informatics - 7 years– PMI - Information Systems SIG - 2 years– Convergence - 4 years– PPDM Association - several years

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The Future of the Internetat various points in the past

Secure communication system for US political and military leaders during nuclear war

System to conduct business Cheap, fast, shared communication system

for everyone A whole new media channel System to improve social life Basis for warfare

Estonia urged NATO to develop a unified strategyagainst "cyber-terrorists" today after suspectedRussian hackers launched a third wave of attackson leading government, banking andmedia websites this week.19 May 2007 4


Cyber War:Sabotaging the System

• Brazilian disruption of electrical power networks initiated by hackers

• China Expands Cyberspying in U.S.

• The New E-spionage Threat

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Close toHome

“Great news, Mrs. Janoski!We put a video of your tummy-tuck surgery

on YouTube,And it’s currently ranked second!”6


Evolution from Web 1.0to Web 2.0

Internet

Mostly text content

End-user generated content

Web 1.0

Web 2.0

End-user input

Multi-media content7


Increasing Online Sales

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Over 72 million active sites

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World Wide Web map

Number of Web Siteson the Web


The Future of the Internet Outline

Social computing will expand to business Internet access will be ubiquitous The Web will become faster The Web will become smarter Security will improve IT products will morph into services Recommendations Questions & Answers

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Social ComputingSurvey

created a personal profile onFacebook, MySpace, Second Life?

played FarmVille? written personal blog entries? written a review at Amazon? posted pictures at Flickr? posted video at YouTube? produced content for the Web?

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Daily Weblog Postings

1.4 million posts per day

Daily Weblog Postings

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New Hobbieson the Internet

How did anyonesurvive before the

Internet?

Isn’t it truly amazinghow a day after Matthew

takes off his shirt, wecan all enjoy it?

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The future of Social Networks

Companies:– operate FaceBook groups & YouTube channels– offer chat to customers– host discussion forums

Individuals:– stay in touch with family & friends– promote causes– participate in political action

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Internet AccessSurvey

abandoned phones for VOIP? used wireless access at Starbucks? found Internet access in remote

corners of the world? mooched Internet access from

an open WiFi access point? surfed the Web using a phone?

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InternetEverywhere

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T-Mobile HotSpot @Home

+ $ 20.00 per month In a Wi-Fi wireless

Internet hot spot,all your calls are free

Phone hands offyour calls fromWi-Fi network to cell networkseamlessly and automatically

Includes a wireless router for your home

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Novatel MiFi


PCs vs. Cell PhonesProjected Shipments

Over 700 million phones

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Internet-CapableCell Phones

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Chinese InformationHighway


Revenge of the PCs?

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Netbook


The Future of Internet Access

Internet 2 Cable/ADSL Rural Internet Satellite services Municipal WiFi Device convergence

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Faster Web Survey

waited and waited for web pages to load? noticed significant variability when loading

the same web page? rented movies because the download time

takes hours? abandoned an online purchase because the

hour glass stayed on forever?

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Internet speed by country

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The Future of Internet Speed

Internet 2 Faster web browsers Higher speed Cable/ADSL Higher speed cell phone network Higher speed in-home network

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Smarter Web Survey

not found what you were searching for? failed to re-find a page you’ve seen before? become tired of typing the same personal

information over and over and over? received unexpected/embarrassing pages in

the results set? found exactly what you were looking for; only

it’s in Chicago?

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Mobile agents RosettaNet ebXML UDDI WS-<alphabet

soup>

Web Services willconnect organizations

}WS-Trust

WS-SecurityWeb Services Interoperability

WS-MetadataExchangeWS-Addressing

WS-EventingWS-ServiceGroup

WS-BaseFaults

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Web characteristic Today FutureSearch evaluation String

matchingContextual understanding

Content importance PageRank End-user taggingAutomated ranking

Personal profiles Limited,Sporadic

RicherMore consistent

Spatial awareness Limited Integrated GPS

Multi-application integration

Non-existent

Noticeable through XML

The Future Semantic Web


SecuritySurvey

actually produced a disaster recovery plan after deferring the work for many years?

been hesitant about creating a profile? a paper shredder in use at home? their social security number with them? their password written on a sticky note? a firewall, anti-virus and anti-spyware

installed at home?

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The Future of Security

Biometric identification:

Technical identification:

Less total freedom to be irresponsible:

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Software &Hardware Survey

implemented virtualization technology contracted for on-demand

server computing? used open source software? installed OpenOffice? developed software

through crowdsourcing?

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IT products will morph into servicesSoftware as a Service

Open source software

Pay for software usage by the month

Web-accessible office software

IT infrastructure management

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Qbyteonline

JavaEnterprise

System


IT products will morph into servicesHardware as a Service

Commodity computing Service oriented architecture Cluster Grid

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What will the future of the Internetmean to business?

Enhance distributed collaboration Enhance supply chain performance Improve work/life balance Improve integration of field and

head office business processes Address the potential of

knowledge management

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Conclusions

The future of the Internet will surprise us

We tend to under-estimate the pace of progress in technology

We tend to over-estimate the pace at which people are prepared to adopt technology

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KeepingUp

Don’t languish behind,

The Internet offersmany possibilities!

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Recommendations

Monitor Internet technology developments Experiment using emerging Web services Match technology to business problems and

opportunities Pilot Web services in modest ways Don’t over-commit

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Questions & Answers

Elroy will

explain it

to you

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Future of the Internet

Corvelle Consulting700, 205 - 5 Ave. S. W.Calgary, Alberta T2P 2V7Phone: (403) 249-5255E-mail: [email protected]: www.corvelle.com

Yogi SchulzPartner of Corvelle ConsultingInformation technology related

management consultingMicrosoft Canada columnist

& CBC Radio hostIndustry presenterPPDM Association board member

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Man – ComputerIntegration

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searched for Open Source software components?

contemplated installing the Compiere Open Source ERP software application?

read about the Open Source Website Content Management System?

participated in an Open Source community?

considered an open source application?

SoftwareDevelopment

Survey

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Software development will rely heavily on module re-use

Microsoft modules Java modules Applications built

on tools Reducing what

developers have to code

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Supplemental Slides

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Top 10 Sites

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Mobile Web-surfingGrowth

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Websitesvisited after

Twitter

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Top-10 Malware Sites


Internet speed by country

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Number of WeblogsOver 70 million blogs

Number of Weblogs

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USA HolidayOnline Spending

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2009 Holiday Season vs. 2008 Non-Travel Retail Spending Source: comScore, Inc.

Millions ($)

2008 2009 Percent Change

November 1 – December 24 $25,845 $27,121 5%

Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 26) $288 $318 10%

Black Friday (Nov. 27) $534 $595 11%

Cyber Monday (Nov. 30) $834 $887 5%


Web SearchActivity Share

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Search Entity Share of Searches (%)

October 2009

November 2009

Point Change

Google Sites 65.4% 65.6% 0.2

Yahoo! Sites 18.0% 17.5% -0.5

Microsoft Sites 9.9% 10.3% 0.4

Ask Network 3.9% 3.8% -0.1

AOL Network 2.9% 2.8% -0.1

Total Search 100.0% 100.0% N/A


Future ofelectronic books

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AmazonKindle

Sonyereader

Barnes & NobleNook

MSI Dual screen slate

Apple iPAD


Bibliography - 1

A Brief History of the World Wide Web – www.walthowe.com/navnet/history.html

A Little History of the World Wide Web– www.w3.org/History.html

Biometric Identification– et.wcu.edu/aidc/BioWebPages/Biometrics_Eye.html

Classmate PC by Intel– www.classmatepc.com/index.html

Creative Licensing– Erik Heinrich, EDGE, September 2004, p. 14

Digital dilemmas– The Economist, Jan 23rd, 2003– www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=1534303

Eight business technology trends to watch– http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/High_Tech/Strategy_Analysis/Eight_business_technology_trends_to_wat

ch_2080?gp=1 Electrolux Screenfridge

– www.electrolux.com/screenfridge

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Bibliography - 2

Future of the Internet and Web– www.cs.purdue.edu/homes/bxd/inter/futureineweb.html

Hardware, On Demand Help Drive IBM's Profit – Erin Joyce, January 15, 2004 – www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/3299631

Histories of the Internet– www.isoc.org/internet/history– en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_history– www.let.leidenuniv.nl/history/ivh/frame_theorie.html

Hobbes' Internet Timeline v7.0– www.zakon.org/robert/internet/timeline

How the internet has woven itself into American life– www.pewinternet.org/PPF/r/148/report_display.asp

How big brother and big media can put the Internet genie back in the bottle– John Walker, Revision 4 -- November 4th, 2003– www.fourmilab.ch/documents/digital-imprimatur

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Bibliography - 3 IBM - Capacity on demand

– www-1.ibm.com/servers/eserver/iseries/ondemand/cod/ IBM Makes Social Computing Push For Business

– Internet News, January 23, 2007– www.internetnews.com/ent-news/article.php/3655391– www-142.ibm.com/software/sw-lotus/products/product3.nsf/wdocs/connections

Inside Reality - Improve collaborative decision making– www.slb.com/content/services/software/virtual

Internet histories– www.isoc.org/internet/history

Internet Society– www.isoc.org

Internet2– www.internet2.edu

IPhone-Free Cellphone News – By David Pogue, New York Times. July 5, 2007– www.nytimes.com/2007/07/05/technology/circuits/05pogue.html?

ex=1186459200&en=45706190e9cee2fb&ei=5070

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Bibliography - 4 Mobile Agents and the Future of the Internet

– www.cs.dartmouth.edu/~dfk/papers/kotz:future2/ NASA Research and Education Network (NREN)

– www.nren.nasa.gov/about/index.html On-Demand Computing

– www.computerworld.com/hardwaretopics/hardware/report/0,11188,06282004,00.html One Laptop per Child (OLPC)

– laptop.org Pattie Maes and Pranav Mistry demo SixthSense

– http://www.ted.com/talks/pattie_maes_demos_the_sixth_sense.html Rich Internet application

– en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rich_Internet_application– www.adobe.com/devnet/ria/– theopensourcery.com/xmlria.htm

Software as a Service: Choosing an Effective Model– www.accelacomm.com/jlp/BellSaas-txtEm2/22/10002557/

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Bibliography - 5 Taming the World Wide Web

– A rising tide of companies are tapping Semantic Web technologies to unearth hard-to-find connections between disparate pieces of online data

– by Rachael King – www.businessweek.com/technology/content/apr2007/tc20070409_248062.htm?chan=search

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Bibliography - 6 Utility Computing

– www.utilitycomputing.com Unveiling the genius of multi-touch interface design

– Jeff Han– www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/65

Voice over IP 101 - Juniper Networks– whitepapers.informationweek.com/detail/RES/1099072997_513.html?src=mu_p_j2e

W3C - One Web: Going Mobile– Steve Bratt, W3C - One Web: Going Mobile– www.w3.org/2006/Talks/1106-sb-OneWeb-Mobile2/#(1)

Web 2.0 Directory : eConsultant World Wide Web Consortium

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The Future of the Internetat various points in the past - 1

Secure communication system for US political and military leaders during nuclear war

Fast communication system for US Department of Defense and its military contractors

Global system of hypertext linkages to cross-reference academic documents across computers

Fast, shared communication system for large corporations

A way to apply computing without sending vast sums of money to Microsoft

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Replacement for Fedexing documents A whole new media channel for:

– Distributing information – Delivering entertainment & education– Collaborating for business or pleasure

System to:– Perform rapid research (with limitations)– Conduct business with consumers – B2C– Improve social life

Get rich quick scheme based on dubious products & services

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A software distribution/update mechanism Cheap, fast, shared communication system for

everyone System to conduct business:

– Among businesses – B2B– With government

A turbo-charged way to:– Defraud the innocent & the naive– Aggravate & disrupt the lives of many– Operate a global casino without spending billions

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Basis for warfare:– Disrupt enemy communication– Disable enemy weapons– Freeze enemy financial assets– Avoid casualties on the evening news

Replacement for:– The telephone system– Video conferencing

A shared infrastructure to enable:– Media convergence– Wireless communication system– On-demand television

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A Brief History of the Internet

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A Brief Historyof the Internet - 1

1957 U. S. government forms Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) as a defense initiative

1968 ARPANET, the precursor of the Internet, is launched to connect Department of Defense (DoD) with military contractors

1970s ARPA and Stanford develop packet switching - TCP/IP 1971 Ray Tomlinson of ARPANET sent the world's first e-mail 1972 Scientist start to use ARPANET for E-mail 1973 The term Internet is first used 1981 ARPANET grows to 213 hosts 1982 first Newsgroups established 1983 TCP/IP becomes the standard protocol 1984 The term cyberspace is coined by author William Gibson 1984 ARPANET grows to 1,000 hosts

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1985 NSFNet begins; takes over Internet 1985, 15 March – first registered domain name was symbolics.com 1989 Tim Berners-Lee wrote the first web client and server 1990 Tim Berners-Lee’s specifications of URIs, HTTP and HTML refined as

Web technology spread 1990 The phrase World Wide Web is coined by Tim Berners-Lee. He is

considered the inventor of the Web 1990 NSF lifts ban on commercial hosts on Internet 1990 Archie, first search engine, developed at McGill University 1991 PSI Net begins as first commercial ISP 1991 Gopher system - improvement on ftp retrieval developed 1992 Network Solutions wins bid to register domain extensions 1992 Internet reaches 1,000,000 hosts 1993 MOSAIC browser developed at University of Illinois under federal

grant

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1993 Internet reaches 2,000,000 hosts 1993 Netscape Communications is founded 1994 The first bank opens online 1994 Pizza Hut offers online pizza order and delivery 1994 first International World Wide Web Conferences held 1994 Yahoo starts as "Jerry's Guide to the World Wide Web" 1994, 7 July – Fraunhofer Society released the first MP3 software 1995 Internet access providers Compuserve, Aol and Prodigy began 1995 PC-to-PC Voice over IP began by hobbyists in Israel 1995, 3 September – eBay launched 1995, 15 December – AltaVista launched as an Internet search engine 1995 Amazon.com launched 1996 Microsoft feels threatened by Internet growth in importance; re-

prioritizes software development

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1996 Yahoo Internet search engine is launched 1997 The one millionth domain name is registered 1997 Net2Phone Direct (Phone-to-Phone Over IP) launched in the USA 1998 More than 300 million web pages exist; growing by 1.5 million

pages per day 1998 VOIP first PC-to-Phone and later Phone-to-Phone connections 1998, 7 September – Google Inc.opens for business 1999 B2C E-commerce, portals and electronic auctions become popular 1999 Consumer high-speed access widely adopted 1999 MySpace.com is launched 1999 wireless technology called 802.11b or Wi-Fi is standardized 2000 B2B E-commerce gains momentum 2000 AOL Time Warner merger announced

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2001 B2B Marketplaces experiment with mixed success 2001 Internet startup frenzy implodes 2001 eBay reaches $10 billion sales; exceeds 35 million users 2001 W3C Publishes Web Services Description Language (WSDL) 2001 Napster litigation forces it to suspend service 2001 The first live distributed musical 2001 SETI@Home launches 2001 European Council finalizes an international cyber-crime treaty 2001 Code Red worm and Sircam virus infiltrate thousands of web

servers and email accounts 2002 Having your own Blog becomes hip 2002 A distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack struck the 13

DNS root servers

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2003 Spam, unsolicited email, becomes a server-clogging menace. It accounts for about half of all emails

2003 The first official Swiss online election takes place in Anières 2003 SQL Slammer worm causes one of the largest and fastest spreading DDoS

attacks 2003 Flash mobs, organized over the Net, start in New York and quickly form in

cities worldwide 2003 first Weblog site launched 2003 Second Life launched 2003 May LinkedIn launched 2003 Taxes make headlines as larger US Internet retailers begin collecting taxes on

all purchases 2003 The Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) sues 261 individuals

for distributing copyright music files 2003 Internet users illegally download about 2.6 billion music files each month

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2003 Apple Computer introduces Apple iTunes Music Store 2003 Last Abilene Internet segment upgraded to 10Gbps 2004 WS-Security 2004 February - Facebook was founded by Mark Zuckerberg 2004 Google IPO 2004 more instances of DNS root servers outside the USA 2004 VeriSign (VNDS) begins updating authoritative name servers

in near real-time 2004 CERNET2 – first backbone IPv6 network in China 2004 Internet Worm, called MyDoom or Novarg, spreads through

Internet servers 2004 Online spending reaches a record high - $117 billion, a 26%

increase over 2003 2004, 9 November – Firefox Internet browser released

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2005 One Laptop Per Child project begins 2005 YouTube.com is launched 2005 News Corporation's Fox Interactive Media

buys MySpace 2006 Estimated 92 – 100 million Web sites online 2006 July Twitter launched publicly 2006, 14 November Microsoft launches Zune 2006 Google acquires YouTube for $1.65 billion

in a stock-for-stock transaction

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2007 February Apple surpasses one billion iTunes downloads

2007 March 1.1 billion people use the Internet according to Internet World Stats

April 2007 Search engine giant Google surpasses Microsoft as "the most valuable global brand," and also is the most visited Web site

2007 – Amazon.com sales exceed $ 3 Billion 2008 - Hulu launches; an online video site for

copyrighted work by major networks, December 2009 Ciplex Builds World's First Multi-Touch

Website Using Silverlight Internet Archive:http://www.archive.org 76


Social Computingin Business

IBM's new social computing platform, Lotus Connections, includes five basic components:

Profiles - Find the people you need Communities - Work with people who

share common interests and expertise Blogs - Present your own ideas and

learn from others Dogear - Save and share bookmarks Activities - Organize your work and

tap your professional network

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Mobile Subscriptionsby Region

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corvelle drives concepts to completion. the future of the internet arma calgary february 10, 2010 2

Documents

completion slide

corvelle drives concepts

web slide

completion close

completion evolution

content web

completion new hobbies

completion cyber war