corridors of uncertainty submitted
TRANSCRIPT
'Corridors of uncertainty: information, technology and planning for secure and confident travel by public transport’
K. Pangbourne and M. Beecroft, Centre for Transport Research, University of AberdeenPaper for UTSG 2013
http://www.pitchvision.com/how-to-exploit-batting-weaknesses-open-stance
Structure of Paper
• About the project
• Work Package 1
• Conceptualising personal security
• SWOT and STEEPL analysis
• The scenarios
• Expert interviews
• Conclusions
• Next steps
About the project
• Focus: interaction between technology and user needs in supporting personal security in travel on public transport.
• Aim: develop fundamental understandings of this interaction and enable transport technologies to better support personal security
• Approach: five scenario workshops looking at four application areas and the implications of the developed narratives; expert interviews
WP1: provision of public transport traveller information
Journey options (modes, tickets, routes)Getting to and from vehiclesIn transit (next stop, delays) Public information (safety, crime messages)Way-finding (labels, maps, direction signs, sat-nav)
Delivery
Med
ium
Human, Printed, Broadcast, Digital
New technologies/mediaSmart vehiclesIntelligent Transport SystemsSmart ticketingPersonalised information Security (biometrics, CCTV, RDIF)Mobile communicationsGadgets (QR codes, NFC)Social MediaBig data
Providers/sources of informationTransport operatorsTransport authoritiesTicket agenciesTourism and destination promotersInternet innovators (apps, APIs, websites)Word of mouth
Information Type
Technological innovation
Actual Crime/anti-social behaviour and Perceptions based on fear of crime
Crime (1) Fear of Crime (A)
“Encountering anti-social behaviour can be as bad as encountering crime”
“Older people often perceive the risk of crime as being more significant than it is in reality, but it does impact on their confidence in using public transport”
Actual confidence levels and extent and the fear of accidents
Confidence (3) Fear of Accidents (or discomfort) (B)
“From non-users the perception is very negative, but regular PT users have a more realistic view of the situation”“Night services can be daunting to use in some areas”
“Older people, who have a bad experience on public transport, e.g. falling on a bus, will be much less likely to use it in the future. The consequences for them are more severe”
Real safety issues, and perception of risks to safety from crime/anti-social behaviour
Safety (2) Perceived risks to safety (C)
“Falls on buses are a major cause of injuries and undermines travellers confidence - alternative travel options or not at all. Elderly find themselves stranded and isolated unless using private transport”
“Don’t forget multi-storey car parks. One of the worst I saw (several years ago) was that provided for Tyne and Wear metro users – dank, dark, graffiti and an appalling smell in the stairwells!”
Conceptualising personal security
SWOT ANALYSISSt
ren
gth
s High quality, innovative RTI already existsRTI is reassuring Cost-benefit of RTI is being demonstratedEducation and crime prevention initiatives do workSuccessful innovations with social media
A lack of cross-modal RTIAccessibility of RTI and other forms of travel informationGeographic differences in provision and consistency ofRTIComplex fares and networks makes RTI provision moredifficultLack of integration/coordination between sources ofdataResponsive security technology feasible, but fullenforcement is costlyAbility to change perceptions and counter urban mythsAdapting journeys on the move
We
akn
ess
es
Op
po
rtu
nit
ies
Learn from existing good practice and from other sectors,such as tourismThink of the whole journey from the customer perspectiveOpen dataSocial media and crowd-sourcingIntegrate RTI with higher design standards for interchangeand public spacesImprove management and provision of information duringdisruptionEducation about acceptable standards of behaviour on PT.
High tech innovation could threaten continuing provision oflow tech information measures, when many customer groupswill continue to need them.Lack of clarity in payment for and ownership of dataCost of staffing and training for operators to properly adoptsocial mediaIntrusive securitisation of transport as a result of extremeincidentsUnfundable higher expectations of RTIMore expensive PT increases social inequity and reducespersonal securityFailure to address erroneous perceptions of riskImpact of increased disruption
Thre
ats
STEEP(L) AnalysisSocial Technological •Environmental
• Peak car• Demographic trends • Teleworking• Social polarisation
•Pace of change• Ubiquitous, pervasive technos• Internet of things• Security vs Privacy
•CLIMATE CHANGE!•LEVs•Energy demands
Economic Political Legal/Regulatory
• Value of time• Smart payment methods• Alternative energy
economy • Employment patterns
• Acceptability of transport subsidy• Political responses to terrorism and cyber-attack• City-regional devolution and localism
•Passenger led performance monitoring•Integration of regional level systems & services
Individual values Community values
Governance: interdependence
Governance: autonomy
WORLD MARKETSKeywords: Individualism, material wealth, mobility, global markets, international policy, privatisation, minimal government.
GLOBAL RESPONSIBILITYKeywords: Community, environment, active public policy and international co-operation, highly regulated markets.
NATIONAL ENTERPRISEKeywords: Individualism, material wealth, national self-reliance and cultural identity, fragmented world.
LOCAL STEWARDSHIPKeywords: Environment, localism, social regulation of markets, small-scale economies, participative governance.
Adapted from Berkhout and Hertin (2002), SPRU Foresight Futures Framework to 2020
Scenarios
World Markets• International & long distance domestic travel ▲
• MNCs dominate journey planning services market
• Car is king!:
• infrastructure, facilities and services for car access to PT
• traveller information for car access to PT
• Information provision ▼ (if no commercial benefit)
• Decreasing confidence + narrower travel horizons for many
• Increasing role for DRT
• Data security and target hardening are major issues
• Limited role for social media and open data
Global Responsibility• Akin to current Scandinavian socio-governmental
model
• Social value of PT recognised and funded by tax
• Disruptive radicals rare, but dangerous due to social trust
• Open data reliance vulnerable to cyber attacks
• Minority groups supported in PT service and information provision increasing use
• Active travel and PT preferred for local trips
• Data heavy, integrated, multi-modal transport networks
• Active social media + supportive technos support PT use
National Enterprise• Fragmented PT & info services - ‘homeland’ security
priority
• Investment in national infrastructure: m’way & rail networks, key interchanges, borders & international gateways.
• IT and related services developed at national level.
• De-regulated service provision affords little protection
• Information critical in society - quality varies by ability to pay
• Mobile ‘travel buddies’ in absence of community spirit
• Surveillance society - ID Card to access/pay for PT
• Little social media & open data - official providers favoured
Local Stewardship
• Mostly local journeys – more active travel
• ▲ cycling & walking infrastructure, info + PT integration
• Range of models of cycle ownership and use
• DRT for mobility-impaired (local PT ▼ as active travel ▲)
• Technology used to support home-working
• longer distance travel▼, but good info:
– Local broadcast media provide RTI in locality
– DAB pushes this to geo-located mobile devices
• Community oriented, local lifestyles crime ▼ but cycle crime▲
Expert Interviews: better assurance from technologies
(Real-time) information as assurance“visitors and infrequent users generally pre-plan what they are trying to do but when
they get to the stop or location, ... that information gives them assurance, confidence that actually it’s working. So that’s the personal security, personal safety, in the fact that we don’t want people ... waiting for a bus at two o’ clock in the morning when it’s never arriving ... that [also] gives an assurance that if they haven’t pre-planned they get to a bus and it’s not working or something is happening, they know what is happening.” (WP1EP4)
Mobile technology: game changer for rural areas through low cost assurance?“we ... don’t [put] in new technology or new information streams for security purposes
but certainly for assurance purposes so [QR codes and NFC] is something we’ve put in for that. You don’t have to be at the stop to use it, once you’ve used it at the stop you store it in your ... As soon as you get it onto the Smartphone ... you can expand – we regularly discuss how we’re going to get fare information on the bus stops and there’s a lot of issues with that ... a fare table is quite complicated and it adds another dimension that your publicity can go out of date and the cost of [updating it] but once it’s electronic …” (WP1EP6)
Expert Interviews: needs as skills change
Internet search literacy
“When we were first developing Transport Direct the notion of portal was very strong in web parlance, it was pre-Google, ... putting everything in one place ... people are now their own integrators, they take a bit from this website, solve that problem, there’s another site that they prefer to solve another problem and they join the bits together.” (WP1EP2)
Travel information literacy
“my [16 yr old] daughter really doesn’t know how to use timetables very well because she looks up train times online ... she specifies when she’s going ... and she gets a tailored response, it is a timetable but it’s a tiny part of a larger timetable ... although there are lots of gains with new technology, there are also some losses” (WP1EP5)
Expert Interviews: inclusiveness
Dangers from rapid innovation
“if you were carrying out any segmentation, age would be really significant and within that, somewhere around thirty-five to sixty age group, there probably is a lot of variation depending on uptake of technology.” (WP1EP5)
Training to increase confidence with particular groups
“There’s lots of travel training schemes out there. But we want to encourage more of those... . How can you give people confidence to travel, how can you build up their travel horizons and so on?” (WP1EP1)
Next Steps
Coping with disruption workshop
• Completed
• Successfully utilised scenario narratives from 1st
workshop
• Developed richer insights focused on disruption
Automation and flexible transport workshops
• 4th/5th February 2013
• Will also utilise scenario narratives from 1st
workshop
• Aim to develop rich insight on automation and flexible transport respectively
Final workshop will bring the original narratives together with the rich pictures of the three specific application areas. Participants will consider unintended consequences of securitisation technologies and discuss the desirability of different aspects of the four narratives. This will be used to identify future research opportunities and policy recommendations.
ConclusionsKey conclusions: now Key drivers: future
• Social change
– Travel demand
– Demographic change
• Technology
– Speed of change and take up
• Economy
– Energy resources
– Budget constraints
• Environment
– Impact of climate change
• Politics and Regulation
– Attitudes to securitisation
– Type and regulation of future PT
• Information is a major source of confidence and reassurance when travelling
• Information provision: where technology and users interact
• Advances in quantity of information
– Open Data
– Mobile platforms
• Issues in quality of information
– Provenance and trust
– Management of data
– Supporting certain user types
