correlation of cyclical perspective

8/11/2019 Correlation of Cyclical Perspective

1/9

Economics

Cor r el at i on of Cy c l i c a l Per s pec t i ve

Copyr i ght Mar t i n A. Ar mst r ong A l l Ri ght s Re s er v ed August 21,2009

. Comment s Wel come: Ar mst r ongEconogi t cs@GMai l . COM ( I nt e r nat i ona l l y )
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


2/9

For mer Chai r man of P r i nc et on Economi cs I nt e r nat i onal , L t d .and t heFoundat i on For The St udy of Cyc l e s

i nc e t he dawn of t i me , manki nd has t r i e d t o f i gur eout why he e x i s t s , andwhat t heh e l l i s go i ng on. He has devel oped a l l s o r t s of r e l i gi ous i deasaven t her e i samas t er r a c e ofgods l ed by Zeuswho j us t l i k e t o mess wi t hman f o r f un. Pl an began t oobser ve t heheavens andn ot i c e d p at t e r n s t h atr epeat ed. I nh i s p r i mat i v e way, he had di s c o ve r e d t hec yc l es wi t h i nt heun i v er s e . Hi s accur acy became as t oni s hi ng. Bui l d i ng t empl es, andevens t r a n g e monument ssuchas St onehedge, wer e a l l a l i gned t o t he movement of

t h e s t a r s and t hewi n t e r as we l l as t he summer s o l s t i c e. TheP r e c es s i o n o f t heEqui noi s s ai d t ohave been di s c o v er e d i nEur ope by t heGr eek ast r onomer Hi ppar chus who hadpubl i s h ed h i s s t a r c at al o gue i n129BC. He no t i c e d t h at t hep os i t i o nso f t hes t a r swer e s hi f t e d i n a s y s t e ma t i c way f r o m e a r l i e r Baby l oni an measur ement s. I t was i nf act he Babyl oni ans who f unded per haps t heg r eat e f f o r t ever t o c a t a l o gu e e ve r y t h i n g andmost l i k e d gave b i r t h t oa s t r o l ogy . Hi ppar chus s e v e r a l hundr ed yea r s l a t e r , was abl et o r e vi e w t h at r e s ea r c h and c onc l uded i t was t hee ar t h ( pl at f or m) t h at was movi ng, nt he s t a r s . Thi s i s c al l e d t hepr e c es s i o n and i t i s t heno t o r i o us da te of 2012a l s ot he Myan c a l e nd ar . I t c ons i s t s of a c y c l i c wobbl i ng i n t heo r i e n t a t i o nof t he Ear t h'ax i s of r o t a t i o n wi t h a per i od ofal most 26, 000 y ear s . Ev er y t hi ng but ev er y t h i n g, mowi t h a c y c l i c a l f o r c e . We a r ebor n, l i v e , and d i e i nc yc l i c a l har mony.

So f a r i nmy e f f o r t t oe xpl a i n c y cl e sand how they ar e t he key t o movement ofa l l t hi ngs i nc l ud i ngt heener gy wi t h i n as oc i a l - po l i t i c al - ec onomi c system account i ncf o r gr oup b eha vi o r . But ev er y t hi ng I havedi s c us s e d so f a r i s s t i l l a f l a t model o fdes pi t e an 8- di ment i onal c ompl ex i t y , i t i ss t i l l onl y one s l i c e of p er s pe ct i v e.

What we ar e now about t oex pl or e i stmul t i p l e CorrelationofCyclical Perspecti

The EconomicConfidenceModel i s a composiof t hewo r l d . Yes, i t i s per haps vi ewed ast he model t h a t " h o t " money f o l l ows . We cansee 8 d i ment i ons t o t h i s s i ng l e vi ew. Butt hen t h e r e ar emu l t i p l e v i ews . As I s t a t e dear l y on, ev er y t h i ng a l s o has i t sown c yc l

1


3/9

EconomicConfidenceModelCopyr i r f f t f pf t neef enFconom/ ' cI nst i t ut e

The C.Syr Wave breaksdown into 3 individualalternating waves witha time duration o f Z.1San d 1.(075 year perio dsfor 1 Beg. We r e f e r tothese as a " l o n g " ands h o r t " legs

Six Waves: o f8.6 yearscombine Into5J..E yr Wave

When I f i r s t began t o devel op t hemodel , I had a per sonal exper i ence t hatwas qui t e r evea l i ng. Dur i ng t he 1970s, Iwas i n f a l l i b l e . I was on t op of a l l t hef undament al s about i n f l a t i o n and saw t heb i r t h o f t h e f l o a t i n g exchange r a t e a tl eas t c or r ec t l y as a s t eady dec l i ne f o rt he do l l a r . I had at l eas t t r a ve l ed i nEur ope du r i ng t he 1960s f r o m t op t o bot t om and gai ned per sonal exper i ence veryyoung i n f or e i gn exchange.

I c or r ec t l y saw gol d r i s i n g f r o m $35

t o $200 goi ng i nt o 1975. I had a l o t ofEur opean f r i ends and we kept i n t ouch att h a t t i me most l y by t e l ex . Wher e t hey sawgo l d r i s i n g we l l beyond $200 because i twas bei ng l ega l i z ed i n t he US f o r t he f i r -s t t i me s i nce 1933, I d i sagr eed. They sawAmer i cans l i n i n g up t o buy g ol d and hadt aken i t up t o $200 p r i o r t o t he Amer i canl e g a l i z a t i o n . I s ol d t hat hi gh, f o r I d i dnot see Amer i cans c a r i n g a t a l l about t hegol d mar ket . Gol d f e l l i nt o 1976 t o about$100. Ever yone was c a l l i n g me f o r my moment i n t he sun. But t her e was s omet hi ng

s er i ous l y wr ong. The f undament al s I hadhung my hat on t he way up, wer e s t i l lt h e r e , y et g ol d dr opped. St a gf l a t i on hademer ged and t her e was t a l k o f a greatdepr ess i on comi ng. Real es t at e sa l es hadpl ummet ed. I was t r y i ng t o s e l l my homeand move. I t was on t he mar ket f o r 1 yearand nobody even came t o l ook , i t was aver y bad r e a l es t at e de c l i ne .

I had di s co ver ed t he 8. 6 year model

year s bef or e. But I di dn' t us e i t f o r I

d i d not under st and i t . Neve r t he l ess , i t wac l ear , what I t hought I knew f undament al l ywas not any way t o t r ade . I was never wr onbut i t was j us t dumb l uc k. A br oken c l oc k s t i l l cor r ect t wi ce a day.

Th i s l ed me t o use my comput er s k it o c r e a t e s omet hi ng t ha t progr ammer s had bdr eami ng about f o r year s . I c r e at ed a modet h a t was en t i r e l y uni que. I nst ead of wr i t icode and e s t a bl i s hi ng r u l es t hat a programf o l l ows l i k e an addi ng machi ne, I deci ded adopt a da r i ng appr oach. I woul d wr i t e a

program and t each t he comput er how t o anal ywi t h no pr e- det er mi ned r u l es on what t o ana

A f t e r c r e at i ng t he met hod, I t h en gavi t t he means. Ther e wer e no r u l es . I c r eata system t ha t woul d ac t ua l l y l ear n i t s e l f I d i d , r ecor d i t sknowl edge base, and t husi n t he f ut ur e , c o ns u l t wi t h t hat knowl edgebase. The essence o f exper i ence.

I ns t ead of c r eat i ng pr edet er mi ned r ulsuch as s t ocks up when i nt e r e s t r a t e s dec lI assumed I knew not hi ng, and al l owed t he

t o l ea r n on i t s own. As i t woul d compar e epos s i b l e c or r e l a t i on and r e l a t i ons hi p eveni t made no sense t o me, what emer ged was ar e a l shocker . The comput er woul d f i n d c r i tr e l a t i ons hi psar oundt he wor l d. The mor e daI f ed i t , t he mor e ac cur a t e i t became and mor e ast oni shed I was at t he r e s u l t s . Thepr obl em became, how t o i nqui r e . Thi s l ed mdown t he pat h o f vo i ce r ec ogni t i on. At f i rt he i nqui r y was by t yp i ng i n quest i ons. I tt o al s o be t aught l anguage and how t o useWhat was emer gi ng, I c oul d never have dreawas p oss i b l e .


4/9


5/9

Our most s e r i ous pr obl em i s t h at t hef e de r a l gover nment i s t oo c or r upt . I t i sbecomi ng obvi ous t o ever yone t hat n ei t he rt he SEC nor t h e J u s t i c eDepar t ment w i l l everi nv es t i ga t e t he l i k e s ofGoldmanSachs. Wehave t he SEC t r y i ng t o r e t r o ac t i v e l y d i s gor ge i nnocent peopl e such as Maynar d J enk i nsof CSK Aut o on t he t heor y t hat as l ong as

anyone i n a c or po r a t i o n l i e s t ha t t hey canp or t r a y as a f r a ud upon t he mar ket , t hent he SEC has t he r i gh t t o"clawback" a l lbonuses pa i d t o empl oyees t h a t t h e y ar guewer e t he f r u i t s of t he f r a ud even i f t heydi dn' t know about i t .

Onl y t heLondonFinancialTimes w i l leven r e p o r t t h e t r ut h about what i s go i ng oni n Amer i can r e gu l a t i o n. The gover nment i scapabl e of such i n t i mi d at i o n of t he pr e s s ,t h a t we no l onger have a r e a l " f r e e pr es s "as even e x i s t s i n Engl and. On August 11th ,

t he FT on page 13 r epor t ed t hat a f avour edhedge f unPequotCapitalManagement had beenr e f e r r e d t o t he SEC "at least 45 times be-tween2005and thisyear" r e po r t e d t h e FT.L i k e Madof f , i f you a r e pa r t of t he e l i t e ,t her e i s no r e gu l a t i o n. Regul at i on i s f o rever yone e l s e .

The FT a l s o r e por t ed i n t ha t same p i ecesomet hi ng I have no t seen r epo r t ed i n any o ft he Amer i can p r e s s .

" Gar y Agui r r e, a f or mer SEC empl oyee

who wor ked on t he f i r s t i n qu i r y , hasc l ai med he was f i r e d f o r pur s i ng power -f u l Wal l S t r eet f i gu r e s . "

I d. / pg 13, Tuesday 8/ 11/ 09

To get Mi c hael Mi l k i n t o pl e ad g ui l t yt o i n s i d e t r adi ng, t hey char ged c r i mi na l l yh i s f a mi l y - s p e c i f i c al l y h i s br ot her . Theyt o l d Mi l k i n i f he went t o t r i a l , he woul dno t on l y get t he maxi mum, but so woul d h i sb r o t h e r . They o f f e r ed t o l e t hi m keep i t hemoney $500 mi l l i o n , and d rop a l l char gesa ga i n s t h i s br o t h er i f he pl e d. The onlynewspaper t o_ r e po r t t he t r ut h about char g i ngh i s f a mi l y t o e x t o r t t he c o nf e s s i o n, was t heLondonFinancialTimes. A l l ot her paper s i nt he US t hat I r e c a l l , r e po r t e d t he gover nment v er s i on.

The SEC, J u s t i c eDepar t ment and t heCommodi t y Fut ur es T r adi ng Commi ss i on w i l lnot i n v es t i g at e any o f t he r e a l causes f o r

our economi c demi se. J us t asLong-TermCapitalManagementwas t he r e s ul t o f pay i nb r i be s t o t heInternationalMonetaryFundt o keep t he l oans f l owi ng t o Russ i a so t he"club" coul d buy t h ei r paper a t i ns ane r a tof i nt e r e s t c ol l a ps e d, t oday i t was t he sascheme u s i n g t he mor t gages ass umi ng t h at tFeds woul d cover t h ei r backs no mat t er wha

The i nc es t uo us c ont r o l t hat t he maj orNew Yor k I nvest ment Banks have over t he whscope of gover nment i sbeyond b e l i e f . TheFeds t h i n k t hey need t he l i k e s ofGoldnanSachs i n or d er t o s e l l t h e i r debt . So i t it he e nt i r e debt c r i s i s t ha t prevents us f rget t i ng t o s o l i d gr ound. I f ear i t i s t r u lhopel ess, f or t he SEC and cohort s w i l l g>a f t e r a l l o t h er s t o put on a good show t h at hey a r e be i ng t ough on whi t e c ol l a r c r i mewhen i n f a c t t h ey ar e a t t a c k i n g ever yonet hos e who have wi ped out so many ar ound th

wo r l d.

The peopl e ge t a l l u nnec es s a r i l y ex c idur i ng p o l i t i c a l e l e c t i o ns . But i n r e al i t yno t h i ng changes. Obama may be go i ng a f t e rc o r p o r a t e bonuses, but h i s peopl e l e tGoldbuy t h e i r way out of TARP j us t so t hey coube f r e e o f any s c r u t i n y .

Thi s i s t he f o r c e t hat pr ev ent s s oc i et o pr o gr e s s f u r t h er . Thi s i s t he c o r r u pt h a t i s a t t he c or e o f t he po l i c y t o j us tmai n t a i n t he statusquo and t he peopl e w i l

f o r g e t a l l about what happened.

However , t he ener gy s e t i n mot i on i sf a r t oo gr eat even f o rGoldmanSachs t o nos top . They el i mi na t e d much o f t h e i r compett i o n and have emer ged wi t h 100% guar ant eest h a t i f you deal wi t h t hem, you w i l l be baby t he gover nment . So t hey have t r u l y won i n t h i s ba t t l e t o emer ge as t he domi nant fi n our f i n a n c i a l sys t em. But t hat does no tmean they w i l l s ur v i v e.

What we ar e now r eady t o e xpl o r e i s t

Correlation of Cyclical Perspective. Everyt h i ng we have l ooked a t even i n a mu l t i p l iof d i mens i ona l dept h, i s s t i l l but one v i eI t i s an i s o l a t e d s l i c e of compl exi t y t hatf a r mor e i n t e r es t i ng than one mi ght i magi nOnce we see t he s t r uct ur e , we begi n t o undst and t hat t he wor l d we l i v e i n i s dy nami c

r i c h i n c or r e l a t i on and i nt e r r e l a t i ons hi pswe can expl or e of r e a l wor l d wi t h open mi nand eyes. The answer s we have sought f o r sl ong l i e i n t he c ompl ex i t y of i nt e r ac t i on.

4


6/9

EconomicConfidenceModel

2007. 15

StructuralDesign

J us t as a l l l i v i n g ani mal s have t hesame b as i c s t r uc t ur e of pumpi ng b l oo d f r o ma hear t t o p rov i de oxygen t o t he r e s t o f thebody, how ener gy moves i s a l l based upon t hesame b as i c s t r uc t ur e of c y c l i c a l t r a n s f e r -ance. L i ght t r a ve l s i ns i de a b as i c s t r uc t u r eknown as an e l ect r i c - magnet f i e l d t hat ar ebound t oget her at 90 angl es.

The s t r u c t u r a l des i gn o f t heEconomicConfidenceModel conf or ms t o t he same b as i cpr i nc i p l es as l i g h t waves. We have t he mai ncomposi t , t heEconomicConfidenceModelWavet h a t conf or ms t o t he pr i nc i pl es ofPi (i i) ,t h a t i s r u nni ng i ns i de a def i ned f i e l d wi t ha separ at e v o l a t i l i t y wave t hat i s based ont he cor e un i t o f 6 and bui l d s i n magni t udei n t o maj or wave s t r uc t u r e s o f 72 ye ar s . Thi si s t h i s r unni ng wi t h a t h i r d f i e l d based ons e l f - r e f e r r a l of f r a c t a l p a t t e r n r e p l i c at i o n .

Thi s i s t he s t r u c t u r a l des i gn of howt he ener gy c omposi ng t he c y c l i c a l nat ur eof our wor l d moves l i k e l i g h t wi t h i nbound

f i e l d s . Thr oughout a l l syst em, i t i st he same cor e desi gn t hat can be seenno mat t er what we a r e l o ok i ng a t . I f

l ook i ns i de an at om, we see a c lnuc l eus wi t h i t s o bj e ct s movi n

l i k e p l ane t s ar ound t he sThe s ol ar system i s par

o f t heMilky Waywhi ch i s a ga l axy

i n whi ch r o t a t ei n whi ch t hegal ax y i s a l s ot r ave l i ng andwe r et ur n t o same p oi nt oncevery 26, 000 y

Ther e i s abas i c model owhi ch a l l t hi na re des i gned. shoul d not be quest i on t hat can see t h i s scor e des i gn ia l l t hi ngs andt h i s i nc l udescompl ex wor l d i n t e r ac t i on bywhi ch ener gy if a c t s moves i

a c y c l i c a l andc l ea r manner .

We a l l have l egs , wi ngs, f i n s , o r s c a lso t hat l i v i n g c r eat ures can move t o ga i n asourc e of ener gy t hat i s e i t her another p l aof ani mal . The need t o consume ener gy i s t hr o o t model upon whi ch l i f e i f c ons t r u ct e d. i s t he c y c l i c a l nat ur e of a l l t hi ngs t hr ougwhi ch ener gy pass es, and t h i s i swhat we arconcer ned about under st andi ng.

The movement of ener gy i s t he essenceof a l l l i f e . Wi t hout such movement , t h er e ino l i f e . Whenwe l ook at a hear d of ani mal sthey w i l l r eact wi t hout see i ng a danger basupon ot her s who mi ght have seen t he danger so r per c ei ved a po s s i b l e t h r e a t . Ot her s w i lpani c and r un f o l l owi ng t he cr owd wi t houtal ways unders t andi ng what i t i s t hey ar e if a c t r unni ng f r om. So t heLawsofMotion sef o r t h byNewton, r equ i r e expans i on when t heo bj e ct i s capabl e o f spont aneous ac t i onbasupon per c ept i o n or obs e r va t i o n.


7/9

The SixthDimention

The Correlation of CyclicalPerspective

J ul y 20, 1998

1998. 55

1989. 95

Oct 19, ' 8 \1987. 8

1985. 65

Feb 26, 2007

2007. 15

1988. 8751991. 025

1994. 25

I n t he May 15t h ed i t i o n of t h i s r e p o r t ,I p r ov i ded a l ook a t t he8Dimensions oft he model i n an o v e r a l l per s pect i ve. Now wear e r eady t o expl or e t heseDimensionsmor ec l o s e l y . The SixthDimension I e xpl a i ne dwas t he c o r r e l a t i o n of gl o ba l mar ket s f o reach and ever y i n d i v i du a l mar ket or economybeat s a l s o t o t he c y c l i c a l beat o f i t s owndrums.

For exampl e, a gr i c ul t u r a l mar ket s w i l li nc or por at e a h i gher c o r r e l a t i o n t o weat herp a t t e r n s wi t h i n nat ur e t han say gol d or t he

i n d u s t r i a l s t o c k s . However , i n t e r e s t r a t e sw i l l have an i nf l uenc e i n t he a g r i c u l t u r a lj u s t a t i t w i l l i n i n d u s t r i a l s t o c k s .

Each i nd i v i du a l mar ket possess i t ownuni que c yc l i c a l f r equency because i t i s acomposi t e of pr i mar y i nf l uenc es t ha t domi nat et h a t pa r t i c ul a r mar ket of economy. I f wel ook a t t h e OPEC nat i ons , i t i s not har d t osee why t her e i s a gr eat er c or r e l a t i o n t oo i l t han you w i l l f i n d i n ot her economi es.

The f i n a n c i a l i n d u s t r i a l compl ex i sa l s o a movi ng s e c t o r . For exampl e, The mai nbanki ng cent er was Veni ce post - Dar k Ages,t h a t was wi ped out by t he Spani sh de f a ul t sa f t e r t he l os s o f t he Spani sh Armada. Spai nt ur ned aga i nst s i t s own peopl e seek i ng t oc onf i s c at e weal t h and began t heSpanishInquisition t o go a f t e r t he J ews and Ar abs.

The J ews f l e d Spai n and went n o r t h t a k i n gt h ei r s k i l l s wi t h t hemThey s et t l e d now i n

Amst er damwhere banki nq r eappear ed and t hey

gave b i r t h t o t he i nsu rance i ndus t r y .

Ap r i l 19, 20

2009. 30

~ v -i . 075 \M

2008. 225

2002. 85

The Engl i s h wer e great c l o t hmaki ngs bei ng t he sour ce of wool .The F l emi s h wer e t he manuf act ur er sand t h i s was t he d i v i s i o n of r e a leconomi c power dur i ng t he 13t h Cen-t u r y . The Fr ench wer e t he f i r s t t osquander t h ei r weal t h under t henot or i ous Ki ng P h i l i p I V who pl under edt he Chur ch and t he Kni ght s Templ ar .

As Spai n r ose t o power 2011. 45

f o r t a k i ng t he r i s k t o t h c n ^ u 2 Q nf unColumbus, t hey r ose t o

such economi c wea l t h, i t wasuni magi nabl e. The shor t age of E ng l i s h c o i ni n Amer i ca l ed t o Spani sh 8 Real s c i r c u l a ti n t he c ol o ni e smuch l i k e do l l a r s wer e opet r a d e d i n Rus s i a.

The Spani sh def aul t s r uni ned I t a l y ant he r i s k was exposed as so manyt r ea s ur ys hi ps s i nk i ng i n s to rms . Thi s gave r i s e t oi nsur ance t hat enabl e At l a n t i c t r ade t o t hexpand. Thi s i s why t heDutch o r i g i n a l l yowned even New Yor k t ha t was f i r s t c a l l e d

New Amst er dam.

The po i nt of t h i s exer c i s e i s p l a i n .The Wealthof aNation i s a l s o f l u i d andi s s ubj ec t t o c y c l i c a l changes, some ares el f - i nduc ed s uch as t heSpanish Inquisitii n at t ac k i ng i t s own p eopl e, l ed t o c ap i t ami gr a t i o n. TheDutchbecame t he banki ngcent e r and t hen t hey l o s t i t t oEngland,and i n t ur n, England l o s t i t t o t heUnitedStates t hanks t o t wo Wor l d War s. The US i smaki ng t he same mi st ake asSpain.


8/9

E c o n o m i c Confidence 'Mode!

1981. 352015. 75 2024. 35 2032. 95

Ther e i s not h i ng t h at i s f i x ed. Not hi ngt h a t i s c ons t a nt except t i me i t s e l f . Eachand ever y t h i ng we l ook a t i smovi ng j us t ast he e ar t h i s r o t a t i ng, i t t hen t r a ve l s i n an

o r b i t ar ound t he sun, whi ch i s i t s e l f i n ao r b i t wi t h i n t he Mi l k y Way t h at i s a l s o i nan o r b i t . Thi s i s no d i f f e r e nt when we l ookat our economy. Everything i s i n a s t a t e ofconstant c yc l i c a l movement .

Each s o c i e t y i s bor n, f or ms a gover nment , t hat e ve nt ual l y becomes c o r r u pt , andi t t y pi c al l y t ur ns a ga i n s t i t s own peopl et o s us t a i n i t s e l f l i k e any l i v i n g or gani sm.I t w i l l event ua l l y d i e , i t s pr i mar y r e a lcompar at i ve advant age i nRicardo t er ms i sl o s t , and wi t h i t t heWealthof the Nation.

The Correlationof Cyc lical Perspectivei s no di f f e r e nt t han t he P r ecess i on o f t heEqui nox t h at t a ke s 26, 000 year s f o r one suchr e vo l ut i on. Her e we a r e not dea l i ng wi t h t h i sl e ve l o f t i me , but t he same p r i n c i p l e t h a tt he concentrationof capital d r i v e s t he va s tcompl ex wor l d we l i v e i n f r o m t he s o c i a l -pol i t i c al - ec onomi c per s p ec t i v e. I t w i l l movef r o m n at i o n t o n at i o n on a r e l a t i v e l y s h o r tt e r m bas i s , c r ea t i ngbooms and b us t s . But i ti s a l s o movi ng a t a s teady pace such as t heNort h Po l es moves eve ry yea r .

TheEconomicConfidenceModel i s a s l i c eo f pe r s p ec t i v e when we l o ok a t t h at i n s t a n t .However , we must r es pec t i t i s dynami c nots t a t i c . I t i s a r e f l e c t i o n o f t h e combi nedc or r e l a t i on o f e ve r y t h i n g i n t he wo r l d a ta macr o l e v el .

The maj or wave o f 51. 6 year s bu i l ds up

i n 6 waves o f 8. 5 yea r s . Thi s no t on l y c r eat es

We can see t ha t t he r e a lbat t l e i s between gover nmentand t he peopl e. Thi s has beengoi ng on f or t housands o f y ea r s .I n moder n t i mes , i t has been even

j u s t i f i e d by t he per sonal j ea l ousyo f K a r l Mar x, who has cause t he deat hsof mi l l i ons of peopl e who r e l i e d uponhi s t wi s t e d t h eo r i e s t o t r y t o s t op t heconcent r a t i on o f weal t h wi t hout ever f u l l y

under s t andi ng what causes i t , why i t t akesp l a c e , and how i t t r a ns c ends a l l l e v e l s , noj us t i ndi v i dual s . Obama i s f i x at e d wi t h thebonuses pa i d t o empl oyee, ye t i gno res t hec oun t l e s s b i l l i o n s l ac ed i nt o spendi ng t omai t e as i e r t o get r e l e c t e d.

TheEconomicConfidenceModel i s t hus f r ame of r ef er ence. We can use t h i s t o see na t i o ns r i s e and f a l l and l ook not at t h i s fa one di mens i ona l per spect i ve , but a compl exsystem of i n t e r a c t i o ns t ha t al l ow us t o evenmaj or t r e nds , f o r t hey ar e movi ng a t t h e ann

di mensi on of t i me wi t h i n t he f r a c t a l wor l d l i v e i n .

What we ar e now about t o l ook at i s hows i ngl e mar ket may unf ol d over s ever a l 8. 6 yc yc l es t o r eac h i t si ndi v i dual c y c l i c a l obj ei v es . Thi s i s how t he SixthDimension unf o l di n a wo r l d o f s p e c t a c ul a r i nt er a c t i on. Whenl ook a t t h i sDimension we begi n t o see t he nat ur e of how t hi ngs work.


9/9

2007.15Whenwe l ook a t t he gl oba l economi es

and i nd i v i dua l mar ket s, what we s ee i s t hmany ar e l i n i n g up wi t h mi nor t ur ni

poi nt s ont heEconomicConfiModel and t h

begi n t o f orward uas a f or mai n f o r ma l or bear m

2015.75

Behi nd t heEconomicConfidenceModel st ands a l l t he i nd i v i dua l mar ket s

and nat i ona l economi es. They ar e a l l i n t e r r e l a t e d and haveani mpact upon each o thert o v ar y i ng degr ees.

Seme mar ket s w i l l l i n e upwi t h t heModel p r e c i s e l yons pe c i f i c t ur ni ng poi nt s .These a re t he mar ket s and economi es wher ewe f i n d t he t he "hot money" o r f o r ma l l y putt heconcentrationof capital.

Neve r t hel ess , j us t as t he J apanese yenbot t omed i n 1982, a 7year b u l l mar ket wass et i n mot i on goi ng i nt o t he f i r s t maj orhi gh of 1989. 95 i n t h i s PrivateWave t h a tbegan 1985. 65. T hi s c r e at e d abubl e t o p f o rt he Ni kke i 225 and set i n mot i on t h e r e a f t e ra l ong- t er m economi c i mpl o s i o n. Wehavenow

had a 20year dec l i ne f r o m t he 1989 hi ghdr oppi ng t o 6940 f r o m t he 40, 000 l e v elmaki ng a 82% d ec l i n e. But t h i s maynot yetbe over , and t he f i n a l l ow mayy et l i ne - u pwi t h 2011. 45 t o 2012.

The yen i t s e l f r a l l i e d i nt o a 13yearhi gh i n 1995 f o rmi ng a p er f ec t ^ c y c l e i nan a s t o ni s h i n g r a l l y . We see l ows i n 2000f or t he Euro and t he Swi ss f r a nc , but t hel ow f o r t he pound i s 2001 as wi t h t he hi ghi n t he d o l l a r i ndex .

What wenot see i

Dow i s bubt op as ex ii n debt . Ht he 2007 h

i s no t thehi gh on a lt e r m pe r s p e

The mai n t upoi nt s on t

Modelbecomc or r e l a t i ong l o ba l c a p if l ows a c t i na spr i ngboa

J us t bse we ar e i nmaj or economc l i n e , t h i s dnot prec l udehi ghs i n equ

As weevengt o 2011. 45, wmay s t i l l seeeconomy dr op

t h i s i s somet hi ng t hat has noth i ng t o dot he r i s e i n s t oc ks f o r t h i s i saPrivateWwhere equi t y r i s es a ga i n s t t he d ec l i n e i nc onf i denc e i n government .

The Doww i l l become t he hedge agai nsti n f l a t i o n c r e a t e d byt he d ec l i n e i n t he rpur chas i ng power o f t he c ur r e nc i e s . We ara l s o a t t ha t t i me beapproachi ng t he 31 y

mar k f r o m t he s t a r t of t he e nt i r e wave bai n 1985.

What we ar e d oi ng i s l i v i n g i na wort hat i s ext r emel y dynami c. Ev er y t h i ng i snpl ay i ng o f f ev er y t hi ng el s e . Ther e are t rs et i n mot i on l ong i n advance j us t as t he i n 1994 poi nt s t o a h i gh i n 2015 i nUS s t oUnf or t unat el y , , t h i s i sa dec l i ne i n goverment and they w i l l get nasty t r y i ng t o c l

t o power . We ar e si mpl y i mpl odi ng and wecexpect p ol i t i c i a n s t o even l i s t e n .

correlation of cyclical perspective

Documents