cork and foran part 2. “a biofuel economy” human population marine fishing energy and greenhouse...
TRANSCRIPT
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Cork and Foran Part 2
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“A Biofuel Economy”
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Human populationMarine fishingEnergy and greenhouseLand and water Urban infrastructure
Biophysical economics
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Biomass
methanol
DME
Thermochemical
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Conventional wisdom
Renewables transition
Electricity Options
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Fuel OptionsShale
CNG
Ethanol
Methanol/DME
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Energy Profit Ratios energy ‘out’/energy ‘in’Methanol from wood
Energy Profit Ratios (Total Out/Total In) for Fossil- and Bio-Methanol Fuels
0
5
10
15
1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
Simulation Period
Rat
io
Domestic Oil90% Meth
90%Meth+ZeroElect
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Forest Wood Productionfor Core 90% Bio-Methanol Scenario
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
Mill
ion
s
Simulation Period
Cu
bic
Met
res
timber out short euc
timber out pine
timber out mallee
timber out euc
Forest Wood Production for the Bio-Methanol with Transport Efficiencies Scenario
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
Mill
ion
s
Simulation Period
Cu
bic
Met
res
timber out short euc
timber out pine
timber out mallee
timber out euc
Bio-methanol Transition
wood production million m3
90% Methanol 90% Methanol + Trans Efficiency
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Land Use Allocation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Crop Pasture Plantation
Land Uses
Mil
lio
n H
ecta
res
BC
90%Meth
90%Meth + T
No Growth
Changes to Land UseRules for each region:
10% crop, 10% pasture 10% rough land
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Base Case
5,000 GL
TAS
QLD
VIC
WA
90% Methanol
12,300 GL
TASNSW
QLD
VICSA
WA
90% Methanol + Trans Efficiency
8,500 GL
TAS
NSW
VIC
QLD
SAWA
Reduction in Continental Runoff at 2051 due to Plantations for
Bio-Methanol
6 million ha 57 million ha 39 million ha
Average Continental Runoff = > 400,000 GL (12% of rain)
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National Headline Indicators accumulated over 45 year scenario period
Base Case, Normal Renewables and Low-Growth Renewables
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
Accum GDP Accum CO2 PhysicalAffluence
CapitalStocks
Future Fund
Headline Indicator
Mil
lio
ns
Base Case
Renewables
Low Growth
Low growth economy
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Base Case, Normal Renewables and Low-Growth Renewables
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
Accum GDP Accum CO2 PhysicalAffluence
CapitalStocks
Future Fund
Headline Indicator
Mil
lio
ns
Base Case
Renewables
Low Growth
still battli
ng
Outcomes?
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http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/fig_tab/461472a_F1.html#figure-title
A Safe Operating Space
for Humanity
Futures
Work ?
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Process of Futures….a bit like marriage
delight of the first engagement optimism and inquiry analysis and creation delivery (of the report) dead silence from policy/action start again ?
Mid career peopleSkill them up, enthuse themSend them back to the real worldRecruit a new team, still optimistic
‘Future Woolscapes’ workshop, North Head, Sydney
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Institutions Commission for the Future Intergenerational reports Climate change and hydrology currently
Skills Wide knowledge, not prone to cynicism/depression Structure and numeracy across sectors Good political skills but not slippery or politicised
Boundaries Whole-economy but depth in ten+ zones Trade off capability across environment-social-economy
Structural Issues
For Futures Work