core network corridors putting work plans into practice w. shade

Seite 1 © Fraunhofer ISI

P r o j e c t s u m m a r y f o r t h e T E N - T d a y s , R i g a , J u n e 2 2 n d 2 0 1 5

C O S T O F N O N - C O M P L E T I O N O F T H E T E N - T

Dr. Wolfgang SchadeM-Five GmbH, Mobility, Futures, Innovation, EconomicsKarlsruhe, [email protected]

Dr. Michael KrailFraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research(ISI), Karlsruhe, [email protected]

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Quantitative assessment of impacts if TEN-T would not be implemented as defined by TEN-T guidelines and CEF (EU Regulations 1315/2013 and 1316/2013).

Assessment of 2 test cases and 3 scenarios: 2 corridors (test cases), nine CNCs and full core network, cross-border projects and innovative technologies.

Focus on wider economic effects, in particular GDP and employment.

Detailed qualitative and quantitative analysis of jobs created by the TEN-T (e.g. quality of jobs).

Pro jec t ob jec t i ves


Pro jec t s teps

Work plans of 9 corridor studies

(CNC)

ASTRA model5 CNC scenariosGDP, employment

transport, etc.

Annual investments by category (e.g. networks,

tunnels, terminals, innovations, etc.)

Travel time changes by NUTS-I zone due to

accumulated effects by CNC

Travel time adjustments for

zones with overlapping CNC

Employmentby sector, by country

25 sectorsNACE-CLIO

Innovation analysisTypes of invested

technologies

BAC corridor study

(network model)

Employment changeby skill levels

Employment changeby occupations

EU LFS

WIOD

EU skillspanorama

TENtecCore Networks

2030

PTV-Validate(network model)

IMPACTHandbook

External Cost

Transport performance

By mode

Emissions &External Cost

By mode

HBEFACHandbook

Emission Fact.

Inputdatabases

Models and major project inputs

Intermediate stepsand project results

Legend:

Source: Fraunhofer ISI


T E N - T I m p a c t s l i n k e d t o A S T R A E c o n o m y M o d e l

Transport

Consumption

GDP

Trade

Transport

Disposable Income

Investment

Final Demand

Government Household

EmploymentTotal Factor Productivity

Capital Stock

Input-Output Table

Gross Value Added

Population

Potential Output

Population

Demand

Supply

Input- Output

Labour productivity

Transport Cost

TEN-T Investment

TEN-T Funding

Transport Time

TEN-T Implementation

Transport Time/Cost

Source: Fraunhofer ISI, M-Five


I nves tment p ro f i l e in No CNC scenar io

Source: EC/Fraunhofer-ISI

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

[Bn

Eu

ro 2

005 p

er

Year]

Annual TEN-T Investments per Corridor

Scandinavian-Med

Rhine-Danube

Rhine-Alpine

Orient/East Med

North Sea-Med

North Sea-Baltic

Mediterranean

Baltic-Adriatic

Atlantic


I n p u t s o f t r a n s p o r t t i m e c h a n g e s b y N U T S - I z o n e : p a s s e n g e r – i n t e r n a t i o n a l ( n a t i o n a l / r e g i o n a l s e p a r a t e )

International Transport%-travel time increase in case of non-completion - range

of all NUTS-I zones affected by a CNC

Passenger travel time changes in 2030 Rail Car Bus Air

BAC Baltic-Adriatic 1%-31% 1%-14% 1%-9% 1%-5%

NSB Northsea-Baltic 3%-40% 2%-20% 1%-15% 2%-5%

MED Mediterranean 1%-20% 1%-3% 1%-3% 1%-3%

OEM Orient-East-Med 2%-20% 2%-20% 2%-20% n.a.

SCM Scandinavian-Med 10%-68% 3%-68% 3%-68% 5%-10%

RHA Rhine-Alpine 20%-45% 3% 3% 5%

ATL Atlantic 1%-12% 2%-6% 2%-6% 2%

NSM Northsea-Med 1%-22% 1%-3.5% 1%-3.5% 1%-5%

RHD Rhine-Danube 6%-33% 2%-11% 1%-11% 1%-5%Source: Fraunhofer ISI / PTV, BAC from corridor study


Economic impac t o f non-comple t ion o f TEN-T core ne twork cor r idors

Source: Fraunhofer ISI/M-Five


Economic impac t o f TEN-T core ne twork

Scenario Investment not made in EU28

GDP loss 2030

GDP loss

Accumulated 2015-2030

Jobs 2030 not created

Job-years not created

Accumulated 2015-2030

Billion € Billion € Billion € Persons Persons

No_CNC -457 -294 -2,570 -733,000 -8,900,000

No_CNC_Cross_Border -43.2 -86 -725 -189,000 -1,920,000

No_CNC_Innovation -40.8 -89 -723 -206,000 -1,900,000

Non completion core TEN-T network -623 -2,940 –

‑3,380 -10,400,000 – ‑11,900,000



Economic mu l t ip l ie rs o f the scenar ios



Without the TEN-T core network corridors Europe would loose 1.8% of GDP in 2030

About 10 million jobs would be generated by the core TEN-T network from 2015 to 2030

Cross-border projects and innovative technologies are key elements of the TEN-T

Key f ind ings

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Thank you fo r your k ind a t ten t ion !

Contact: Dr. Wolfgang Schade Head of Research, CEO M-Five GmbH Mobility, Futures, Innovation,

Economics Frankenstr. 8, 76137 Karlsruhe, Germany [email protected]


Unders tand ing w ider economic benef i t s

Benefits of transport infrastructureCosts of transport infrastructure

Cla

ssi

cal

tran

spo

rt C

BA

TEN-T transportinvestment

Other cost fortransport userse.g. operationcost increases

Benefits for transport usersusually largest

are time savings

Widereconomicbenefits

Net-Benefitsfor

externalities

BC ratio =Benefit side

Cost side

Mac

ro-e

con

om

ic a

nal

ysis

TEN-T transportinvestment

Macro-economic benefits,either GDP or value-added or

disposable income

Net-Benefitsfor

externalitiesEuropean added-value

Macro-economic benefit

Cost sideEconomic Multiplier =


I m p a c t s o f i n f r a s t r u c t u r e i n v e s t m e n t s i n d i f f e r e n t s e c t o r s

Investment e.g.Transport, Energy,Education, IT, etc.

Sector specific split vector to split

investment onto economic sectors

Construction

Machinery

Electronics

Metal products

Etc. sector

Planning services

Sector specificdirect economic

impacts

Transport

Travel cost

Transport time

Accesibility, etc.

Education

Human capital

Labour market, etc.

Energy

Energy cost

Energy tax revenues

Energy imports, etc.

Etc. sector

Funding structure e.g.Transport, Energy,Education, IT, etc.

Government

National

European, etc.

Private

Within sector retained earnings

Domestic investors

Foreign investors (FDI)

PPP

Banks (EIB, KfW, Priv.)

Financial sector

Risk averse investors

Wider economic effects of the sectoral investment: GDP, íncome, employment, trade, etc.

User (e.g. tolls)

Source: Schade/Krail 2015


No CNC – decompos t ion o f impac ts

Source: Fraunhofer-ISI

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030[Del

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Investment and transport time/cost impact on employment in EU27

Impact of avoided TEN-T investment

Impact of travel time and cost

*All monetary values are expressed in real terms in constant € 2005

55%

45%

82%

18%


No CNC Cross-Border

55% of jobs not created based on travel time/cost changes

Sens i t i v i t y scenar ios – inves tment vs . t rave l t ime/cos t impac t

No CNC Innovation

60% of jobs not created based on travel time/cost changes



-240

-220

-200

-180

-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

[Del

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Investment vs. transport time/cost impact on jobs in EU27 - No CNC Innovation


Impact of travel time and cost-240

-220

-200

-180

-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030[Del

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Investment vs. transport time/cost impact on jobs in EU27 - No CNC CrossB


Impact of travel time and cost



Low Skill Level Medium Skill Level

High Skill Level-400,000

-350,000

-300,000

-250,000

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0Delta jobs per skill level

2020 2030

Skill level

[Delt

a jobs c

om

pare

d t

o R

EF]

Low Skill Level Medium Skill Level

High Skill Level-0.40%

-0.35%

-0.30%

-0.25%

-0.20%

-0.15%

-0.10%

-0.05%

0.00%

% jobs reduction per skill level

2020 2030

Skill level

% d

elt

a jobs c

om

pare

d t

o R

EF]

Impac ts on qua l i t y o f emp loyment :3 sk i l l l e ve l s – No CNC scena r i o – 2020 , 2030


Economic impac t o f non-comple t ion o f TEN-T core ne twork cor r idors – 2015 to 2030

= 2,570 bn€

= 8,900,000



I nves tment * by Core Network Cor r idor (CNC)(about 2700 inves tment p ro jec ts un t i l 2030)

Source: Fraunhofer-ISI/EC, based on CNC studies

CNCTotal Investment

[Mio Euro2005]Investment 2015-2030

[Mio Euro2005]

Atlantic 56,136 45,003

Baltic-Adriatic 52,784 37,366

Mediterranean 91,101 76,951

North Sea-Baltic 60,001 46,777

North Sea-Med 73,993 47,923

Orient/East Med 42,739 27,673

Rhine-Alpine 61,203 42,869

Rhine-Danube 55,051 37,524

Scandinavian-Med 130,400 105,503

Total 623,409 467,589

*All monetary values are expressed in real terms in constant € 2005


Growth impac ts o f CNC comple t ion


0,0%

0,2%

0,4%

0,6%

0,8%

1,0%

1,2%

1,4%

1,6%

1,8%

2,0%

2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2040

[Rel

ativ

e ch

ang

e o

f G

DP

to

RE

F]

Economic impact of non-completion of core TEN-T compared with REF

GDP


Jobs ( job-years ) no t c rea ted in EU27 in No CNC scenar io


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2040

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Jobs not created in EU27 due to non-completion of core TEN-T network

FTE-Employment

core network corridors putting work plans into practice w. shade

Government & Nonprofit

t investments

t guidelines

t e international transport

t i o n

t funding transport

employment transport

r y f o r t h e t e

r e g i o n