copyright © 2017 by the boston consulting group, inc. all ... · 1 public wealth equals 2 x gdp....

12
0

Upload: others

Post on 17-Sep-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Copyright © 2017 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All ... · 1 Public Wealth equals 2 x GDP. Professional management could deliver, equal to what advanced economies . collect

00 Copy

righ

t ©

201

7 by

The

Bos

ton

Cons

ulti

ng G

roup

, In

c. A

ll ri

ghts

res

erve

d.

Page 2: Copyright © 2017 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All ... · 1 Public Wealth equals 2 x GDP. Professional management could deliver, equal to what advanced economies . collect

1

Public Wealth equals 2 x GDP

Professional management could deliver, equal to what advanced economies collect in corporate tax in a year

Public Wealth - tool to boost growth and fund infrastructure

Double the funds available for infrastructure investments - without raising taxes

Christine Lagarde, October 2018

Page 3: Copyright © 2017 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All ... · 1 Public Wealth equals 2 x GDP. Professional management could deliver, equal to what advanced economies . collect

2 Copy

righ

t ©

201

7 by

The

Bos

ton

Cons

ulti

ng G

roup

, In

c. A

ll ri

ghts

res

erve

d.

Source: The Public Wealth of Nations, 2015; Note: Commercial assets does not include ‘Policy Assets’ as these require tax funding.

Buildings• Used by public entity• Used by third-party• Unused

Land • Developed land• Undeveloped land

Transportation• Roads (toll/ user charge)• Rail• Airport and Shipping

• Banks• Insurance companies• Mortgage providers

Financial Services

Utilities • Energy• Water

RealOperational

Public Commercial Assets

Page 4: Copyright © 2017 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All ... · 1 Public Wealth equals 2 x GDP. Professional management could deliver, equal to what advanced economies . collect

3 Copy

righ

t ©

201

7 by

The

Bos

ton

Cons

ulti

ng G

roup

, In

c. A

ll ri

ghts

res

erve

d.

Governments are - sitting on a ‘goldmine’

• Assets mainly visible at the national level

• Book value (historic cost) if at all registered

• Local/ regional level often not included

• Real estate often entirely forgotten

• Opportunity cost visible with market value

1

Page 5: Copyright © 2017 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All ... · 1 Public Wealth equals 2 x GDP. Professional management could deliver, equal to what advanced economies . collect

4

Countries with greater Net Worth

Has shown;

• Lower interest expenses

• Lower yields on sovereign debt

• Greater fiscal space to address priority

needs for public spending

• More resilient to economic downturns

• Grow 3x faster after recession

Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor 2018 on Public Wealth

Page 6: Copyright © 2017 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All ... · 1 Public Wealth equals 2 x GDP. Professional management could deliver, equal to what advanced economies . collect

5 Copy

righ

t ©

201

7 by

The

Bos

ton

Cons

ulti

ng G

roup

, In

c. A

ll ri

ghts

res

erve

d.

From opaque and fragmented… …to consolidated and transparent

Lack of transparency and accountability

Undue political interference

Fragmented ownership and unclear objectives

Balance sheet and IFRS accounting

Arms-length distance from short-term politics

Comprehensive business plan with Clear objectives

Governance is key

Introducing professional management

Page 7: Copyright © 2017 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All ... · 1 Public Wealth equals 2 x GDP. Professional management could deliver, equal to what advanced economies . collect

6

Integrating Spending Review with Public Wealth

• Privatising – when strategic, not to avoid increase in debt/ budget deficit

• PPPs – on equal terms/ risk, not to keep debt off the balance sheet

A focus on Net Worth - would enable an increase in debt to

finance an investment, to be matched with an increase in assets

Page 8: Copyright © 2017 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All ... · 1 Public Wealth equals 2 x GDP. Professional management could deliver, equal to what advanced economies . collect

7 Copy

righ

t ©

201

7 by

The

Bos

ton

Cons

ulti

ng G

roup

, In

c. A

ll ri

ghts

res

erve

d.

• Government owned investment fund, focused on sustainable value over time

• Global footprint, and portfolio covering all large industries

• Aimed at creating public value

$225 bn in holdings across industries 15% return since inception

Governance - best practice Providing funding for society• Transparency: Singapore Audit Standards• Political insulation:

– Independent Non-executive from private sector– Meddling constitutionally forbidden

• Clear objectives: sustainable value maximization

Source: Company website, annual reports & financial data

Return on Equity (%)

Contributed to Singapore budget

15%

Total shareholder return since 1974

~$3Bnp.a.

76 6

74 6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

The mother of Public Wealth Funds

Ø 6

Page 9: Copyright © 2017 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All ... · 1 Public Wealth equals 2 x GDP. Professional management could deliver, equal to what advanced economies . collect

8 Copy

righ

t ©

201

7 by

The

Bos

ton

Cons

ulti

ng G

roup

, In

c. A

ll ri

ghts

res

erve

d.

• Owned mainly by the city and 5% by the state.• Largest UWF in Europe (1,290 acres)

established in 2007• Develops the waterfront and the landlocked

Örestad-district

Objective to fund metro system ROE averaging 24%

Technically a national fund Payed for housing, universities etc.• Transparency: assets booked at market

value (non-IFRS)• Political insulation: dependent on state

government, with state guarantees• Clear objectives: asset recycling-model,

i.e. selling of land instead of developing the assets in-house

Source: Company website, annual reports & financial data

Return on Equity (%)

Copenhagen real estate pays for the metro

profits used to fund expansion of CPH metro

new work spaces created

100,000

4430

8

27

9

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ø 24

new residential housing units

developed

33,000

Page 10: Copyright © 2017 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All ... · 1 Public Wealth equals 2 x GDP. Professional management could deliver, equal to what advanced economies . collect

9 Copy

righ

t ©

201

7 by

The

Bos

ton

Cons

ulti

ng G

roup

, In

c. A

ll ri

ghts

res

erve

d.

• Company owned by the City established in 1997• Redeveloping harbor district into commercial

and cultural hub • Large investments in cultural, housing,

commercial and educational facilities

A new city-center Healthy returns of 8%

Less clear governance Contributed to vibrant city-core• Clear objectives: Stated goal

of value maximization

1. Showing only 2014-2015 as limited historical data available.Source: Company website, annual reports & financial data.

Return on Equity (%)

Hamburg developed a city-in-a-city

new educational

facilitiesfunded State-of-the-art

concert hallresidential units

7,500

new jobs

45,00012

9

6

2014 2015

Ø 8

Page 11: Copyright © 2017 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All ... · 1 Public Wealth equals 2 x GDP. Professional management could deliver, equal to what advanced economies . collect

10 Copy

righ

t ©

201

7 by

The

Bos

ton

Cons

ulti

ng G

roup

, In

c. A

ll ri

ghts

res

erve

d.

• Company wholly owned by the state• Formed in 2001 through a separation from the

railway operations• $2 billion real estate property portfolio incl.

railway stations, land, freight terminals and office building

Swedish railway property owner Healthy returns

Adheres to best practice Projects with impact on economy• Transparency: IFRS• Political insulation: Professionally elected non-

executive board• Clear objectives: Value maximization

Source: Company website, annual reports & financial data

Return on Equity (%)

Sweden building infrastructure and homes

jobs created near stations

2016

$1.5B

investments in transport

infrastructure

homes fully or partially developed

+2k

daily visitors stations

+500k

12

4

12 107

16 19

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ø 12

~400

Page 12: Copyright © 2017 by The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. All ... · 1 Public Wealth equals 2 x GDP. Professional management could deliver, equal to what advanced economies . collect

11 Copy

righ

t ©

201

7 by

The

Bos

ton

Cons

ulti

ng G

roup

, In

c. A

ll ri

ghts

res

erve

d.

• Manages and develops land for and adjacent to public railway systems

• Leverages private sector for best effect to develop high-speed rail, housing and office space on public land

King’s Cross and Olympic Village Strong returns

Adheres to best practice Projects with impact on economy• Transparency: IFRS accounting• Political insulation: Professionally elected non-

executive board• Clear objectives: Value maximization

1. LCR fiscal year ends 31st MarchSource: Company website, annual reports & financial data

Return on Equity (%)

London slum to innovation center

current high-speed

rail projects

£370m

dividend to Treasury

new homes built

+10k

current developments

137

-1

1

20 17 1559

201612015120141201312012120111

Ø 19