copyright 2009 john wiley & sons, inc. chapter 2 strategic management and project selection
TRANSCRIPT
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Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Chapter 2
Strategic Management and Project Selection
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Problems With Multiple Projects
1. Delays in one project delays others
2. Inefficient use of resources
3. Bottlenecks in resource availability
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Project Results
30 Percent lateOver half 190 percent over budgetOver half 220 percent late
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Challenges
Making sure projects closely tied to goals and strategy
How to handle growing number of projects
How to make projects successful
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Project Management Maturity
Project management maturity refers to mastery of skills required to manage project competently
Number of ways to measureMost organizations do not do well
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Project Selection and Criteria of Choice
Project selection…– Evaluating– Choosing– Implementing
Same process as other business decisions
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Types of Companies
Companies considering projects fall into two broad categories:
1. Companies whose core business is completing projects
2. Companies whose core business is something else
They can also be broken down as:1. Companies looking at projects to do for others2. Companies looking at projects to do for
themselves
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Project Companies
Must select which projects they will bid on Generally based on…
– Their expertise– Resource they have availability– Their chance of winning bid
Preparing a bid is expensive They do not want to waste that effort on bids
where they are unlikely to be successful
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Non-Project Companies
Must decide which potential projects they will pursue
Available capital is the major constraintProfitability is often the major criteriaMust evaluate approaches when there
is more than one project that can accomplish a goal
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Models
Models are used to select projectsAll models simplify realityThat is, they only look at the key
variables involved in a decisionThe more variables included in a
model, the more complex it becomesSimpler models usually work better
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Types of Models
Stochastic Model– A model that includes the probabilities of events
occurring within the model. In other words, the same inputs might yield different outputs at different runs. Also known as a probabilistic model.
Deterministic Model– A model that does not include probabilities. Given
the same inputs, the outputs will always be the same.
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Criteria For Project Selection Models
Companies only want to undertake successful projects
Projects that fail waste resources and hurt profitability and competitiveness
Projects that succeed improve profitability and competitiveness
It is not possible to know ahead of time if a project will succeed or fail
In fact, there is a continuum of possible results from total success through absolute failure
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Criteria (Continued)
Companies need a way of weeding out the bad projects while keeping the good ones
No model can predict with absolute certainty No model could predict
– The Exxon Valdez wreck– The explosion of the Challenger
What we want is a model with a “good batting average”
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Model Criteria
RealismCapabilityFlexibilityEasy to use InexpensiveEasy to implement
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Realism
Needs to include all objectives of the firm Needs to include the firms expertise as well
as its limitations Needs to report results in a fashion that
allows different projects to be compared, e.g. how do we compare a project to lower production cost and one to raise market share
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Capability
Model needs to be sophisticated enough to deal with all projects– Varying resource requirements– Varying time periods– Varying probabilities of success
Needs to be able to select the optimum projects among all contenders
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Flexibility
Needs to be able to work with all projects
Needs to be updated as the firm and its environment evolves
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Easy to Use
Needs to be quick to gather the data and easy to use
Easy to be able to “fit” the project in the model
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Inexpensive
Do not want the model to eat up all the savings that result from using the model
Expenses include the cost of writing and maintaining the model
Also includes the expense of gathering the data needed by the model
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Easy to Implement
This is less of an issue with modern spreadsheets
However, a model to be used to evaluate all the firm’s projects should be centrally maintained
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The Nature of Project Selection Models
Models turn inputs into outputs Managers decide on the values for the inputs
and evaluate the outputs The inputs never fully describe the situation The outputs never fully describe the
expected results Models are tools Managers are the decision makers
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Different Factors Affecting Outcome
Many factors affect the outcome of a project– Some are one-time factors
The cost of an item
– Others are reoccurring Maintenance
Not all factors are equally important Critical factors on one project may be trivial
on another project
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Types of Project Selection Models
Nonnumeric modelsNumeric models
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Nonnumeric Models
Models that do not return a numeric value for a project that can be compared with other projects
These are really not “models” but rather justifications for projects
Just because they are not true models does not make them all “bad”
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Types of Nonnumeric Models
Sacred Cow– A project, often suggested by top management,
that has taken on a life of its own. It continues, not due to any justification, but “just because.”
Operating Necessity– A project that is required in order to protect lives
or property or to keep the company in operation. Competitive Necessity
– A project that is required in order to maintain the company’s position in the marketplace.
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Types of Nonnumeric Models Continued
Product Line Extension– Often, projects to expand a product line are
evaluated on how well the new product meshes with the existing product line rather than on overall benefits.
Comparative Benefit– Projects are subjectively rank ordered based on
their perceived benefit to the company.
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Numeric Models
Models that return a numeric value for a project that can be easily compared with other projects
Two major categories:1. Profit/profitability
2. Scoring
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Profit/Profitability Models
Models that look at costs and revenues– Payback period– Discounted cash flow (NPV)– Internal rate of return (IRR)– Profitability index
NPV and IRR are the more common
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Payback Period
The length of time until the original investment has been recouped by the project
A shorter payback period is better
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Payback Period Example
4000,25$
000,100$PeriodPayback
FlowCash Annual
CostProject PeriodPayback
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Payback Period Drawbacks
1. Does not consider time value of money
2. More difficult to use when cash flows change over time
3. Less meaningful over longer periods of time (due to time value of money)
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Discounted Cash Flow
The value of a stream of cash inflows and outflows in today’s dollars
Also know as discounted cash flow or just discounting
Widely used to evaluate projects Includes the time value of money Includes all inflows and outflows, not just the
ones through payback point
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Discounted Cash Flow Continued
Requires a percentage to use to reduce future cash flows– This is known as the discount rate
The discount rate may also be know as a hurdle rate or cutoff rate
There will usually be one overall discount rate for the company
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NPV Formula
n
t tt
k
FA
101
(project) NPV
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NPV Formula Terms
A0 Initial cash investmentFt The cash flow in time period t (negative for
outflows)k The discount rateT The number of years of life
A higher NPV is better The higher the discount rate, the lower the
NPV
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NPV Example
939,1$
03.015.01
000,25$000,100$ (project) NPV
8
1
t
t
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Internal Rate of Return [IRR]
The discount rate (k) that causes the NPV to be equal to zero
The higher the IRR, the better– While it is technically possible for a series to have
multiple IRR’s, this is not a practical issue
Finding the IRR requires a financial calculator or computer
In Excel “=IRR(Series,Guess)”
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Profitability Index
a.k.a. Benefit cost ratioNPV divided by initial cash investmentRatios greater than 1.0 are good
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Advantages of Profitability Models
Easy to use and understandBased on accounting data and
forecastsFamiliar and well understoodGive a go/no-go indicationCan be modified to include risk
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Disadvantages of Profitability Models
Ignore non-monetary factorsSome ignore time value of moneyDiscounting models (NPV, IRR) are
biased to the short-termPayback models ignore cash flow after
payback
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Scoring Models
Unweighted factor modelWeighted factor model
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Unweighted Factor Model
Each factor is weighted the sameLess important factors are weighted the
same as important onesEasy to computeJust total or average the scores
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Unweighted Factor Model Example
Figure 2-2
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Weighted Factor Model
Each factor is weighted relative to its importance– Weighting allows important factors to stand out
A good way to include non-numeric data in the analysis
Factors need to sum to one All weights must be set up so higher values
mean more desirable Small differences in totals are not meaningful
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Weighted Factor Model Example
Figure B
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Analysis Under Uncertainty—The Management of Risk
Everything to do with projects is risky Some projects, like R&D, are more risky than
others, like construction Risks include…
– The timing of the project and its associated cash flow
– Risk regarding the outcome of the project– Risk about the side effects
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Risk and Uncertainty
What the decision maker doesWhat nature does
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Uncertainty
1. Pro forma financial statements
2. Risk analysis
3. Simulation (requires detailed probability information)
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Comments on the Information Base for Selection
1. Accounting data
2. Measurements
3. Uncertain information
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Accounting Data
1. Cost and revenue are linear
2. Cost-revenue data derived using standard cost standardized revenue assumptions
3. Costs may include overhead
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Measurements
1. Subjective versus objective
2. Quantitative versus qualitative
3. Reliable versus unreliable
4. Valid versus invalid
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Uncertain Information
Must estimate inputs for risk analysisThese inputs cannot be known exactly Inputs must be adjusted over time
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Project Portfolio Process (PPP)
Links projects directly to the goals and strategy of the organization
Means for monitoring and controlling projects
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PPP Steps
1. Establish a project council2. Identify project categories and criteria3. Collect project data4. Assess resource availability5. Reduce the project and criteria set6. Prioritize the projects within categories7. Select projects to be funded and held in reserve8. Implement the process
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Step 1: Establish a Project Council
Senior management The project managers of major projects The head of the Project Management Office Particularly relevant general managers Those who can identify key opportunities and
risks facing the organization Anyone who can derail the PPP later on
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Step 2: Identify Project Categories and Criteria
1. Derivate projects
2. Platform projects
3. Breakthrough projects
4. R&D projects
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Step 3: Collect Project Data
Assemble the dataDocument assumptionsScreen out weaker projectsThe fewer projects that need to be
compared and analyzed, the easier the work
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Step 4: Assess Resource Availability
Assess both internal and external resources
Assess labor conservativelyTiming is particularly important
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Step 5: Reduce the Project and Criteria Set
Organization’s goals Have competence Market for offering How risky Potential partner Right resources Good fit
Use strengths Synergistic Dominated by
another Has slipped in
desirability
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Step 6: Prioritize the Projects Within Categories
Apply the scores and criterion weightsConsider in terms of benefits first,
resource costs secondSummarize the returns from the
projects
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Step 7: Select the Projects to be Funded and Held in Reserve
Determine the mix of projects across the categories
Leave some resources free for new opportunities
Allocate the categorized projects in rank order
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Step 8: Implement the Process
Communicate resultsRepeat regularly Improve process
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Project Proposals
The project proposal is essentially a project bid
Putting together a project proposal requires a detailed analysis of the project
Project proposals can take weeks or months to complete
A more detailed analysis may result in not bidding on the project
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Project Proposal Contents
Cover letterExecutive summaryThe technical approachThe implementation planThe plan for logistic support and
administrationPast experience