copyright © 2003 primavera systems, inc. 2003 primavera user conference real world outage planning...
TRANSCRIPT
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
2003 Primavera User Conference
Real World OutagePlanning and Control
presented by
Mike Stone w/ Professional Project Management Services
Copyright © 2002 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Session Rules
• Ask questions when confused.
• Only one person can talk at a time.
• Everyone participates.
• No such thing as a dumb question.
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Here’s What We’re Going to Tell You!
Define your work in detail
Estimate resources and durations
Assign work to individuals not groups
Track hours and cost
Work every minute that is available
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Your Job is Not Simple!
1st you’re going to plan how you’re going to develop your plan
Then, you have to plan the outage
Manage and control the work
Report the status to your boss
Most importantly, you have to manage peoples expectations
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Defining Phase Objectives / Goals
You have to know the real objectives for this season’s outage. Absolute shortest time?
Absolute lowest cost?
Maximum production?
Best economic advantage to the plant?
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Outage Economics 101
Every system has an economic value.
Every project can be accelerated.
Nominally, the marginal daily profit of a system is the maximum acceleration cost you should be willing to expend for a day of acceleration.
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Maximize Benefits
Time vs. money
Faster projects increase cost of work.
Faster projects decreases lost production revenues.
You must find the equilibrium between the speed and the additional cost.
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Construction Cost vs. Time
Project Cost
All jobs have a point where the lowest possible cost has a time
associated with that cost.$
Time
Cos
t
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Cost Benefit Analysis
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Th
ou
san
ds
Days
Long Outages Cost More
Total Cost of Long Duration
Goal is to work in this area!!!
Out of Pocket Costs
Opportunity Costs
Lowest Cost
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Real Life Example
13,734
4,578
2,671
1,7171,259
954 736 572 483 412 354 305 264 229 206 186 168 153 133 120 109 110 110 110 110 110 110 111 111 111
-$3,000,000
-$2,000,000
-$1,000,000
$0
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Time
Val
ue
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
No.
Men
Cummulative Labor Cost
Opportunity Cost
Number of People
Real Cost of Outage
Break Even Point
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Shorten Outage by Eliminating Work
There are three work phases to every outage: Work that can be done pre-outage Work that can only be done during the outage And work that can be done post-outage
Eliminating any work that can be done in a non-outage situation is critical.
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Simplify Scope Definition w/ Excel
WBS for Construction of a Small Building OBS / Responsibility1 Foundations
1.1 Clear Site
1.2 Excavate for Foundations
1.3 Pour Concrete
1.3.1 Piers1.31.1 Survey locations for piers A-1 Surveying
1.3.1.2 Drill piers - place steel - pour Real Deep Drilling Co.
1.3.1.3 Tie steel cages for piers Bob's Re-Bar Service
1.3.2 Footings
1.3.3 Slab
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Estimating
For every task-identified estimate: Resources required Equipment Materials
For every task, estimate the duration
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Duration = Work / Productivity
You can not estimate durations without making assumptions about which resources will be available and their productivity – period!
Work To Be Performed
Productivity Rate= Duration
Productivity per Man x No. of Men = Productivity Rate
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Estimating
Develop a worksheet for each activity identified
No exceptions
Task : Remove Brick From Kiln 4/18/2002 Task No. 001
Scope : Quantity : 2,187.0 SFProductivity : 550.0 SF / Day
Duration : 4.0 DaysWork Day : 10.0 Hours
LABORQty Description Days Hours Rate Total Unit Cost
1 Foreman 4 40.00 28.75 1,150.00 0.53Machinist 4 22.50Welder 4 26.00
6 Laborers 4 240.00 16.00 3,840.00 1.764444
7 Totals………. 280.00 17.82 4,990.00 2.28
LABOR BURDEN Total Labor $$ Burden Rate Total Unit Cost
Burden = Taxes, Fringes, Insurance, HOOH, etc. 4,990.00 43.50% 2,170.65 0.99
EQUIPMENTQty Description Days Hours Rate / Price Total Unit Cost0.5 Forklift 4 20.00 45.00 900.00 0.411 Air Compressor 4 40.00 45.00 1,800.00 0.82
0.2 Front-end loader 4 8.00 45.00 360.00 0.161 Dump Truck 4 40.00 45.00 1,800.00 0.82
4 45.00
2.7 Totals………. 108.00 45.00 4,860.00 2.22
MATERIALSQty Description Rate Qty Unit Price Total Unit Cost
Totals……….
TOOLS / SUPPLIESQty Description Rate Qty Unit Price Total Unit Cost
1 Cutting torch 40 40.00 8.00 320.00 0.15
1 Totals………. 40.00 8.00 320.00 0.15
SUBCONTRACTORS Qty Description Days Hours / Qty Rate Total Unit Cost
44444
Totals……….
TOTAL COSTS …….. $12,340.65 $5.64
Remove brick from kiln; approximately 58' of brick from the burning zone. Diameter = 12' x 3.142857 x 58 = 2187 sf of brick to be demo'd - includes removal through loading wasted bricks into dump trucks for disposal.
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Scope / Productivity = Duration
Task or Activity Name
Date estimate was made
Schedule ID Number
Task : Remove Brick From Kiln 4/18/2002 Task No. 001
Scope : Quantity : 2,187.0 SFProductivity : 550.0 SF / Day
Duration : 4.0 DaysWork Day : 10.0 Hours
Remove brick from kiln; approximately 58' of brick from the burning zone. Diameter = 12' x 3.142857 x 58 = 2187 sf of brick to be demo'd - includes removal through loading wasted bricks into dump trucks for disposal.
Detailed scope information
Qty / Productivity / Duration Basis
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Labor – The Biggest Variable
LABORQty Description Days Hours Rate Total Unit Cost
1 Foreman 4 40.00 28.75 1,150.00 0.53Machinist 4 22.50Welder 4 26.00
6 Laborers 4 240.00 16.00 3,840.00 1.764444
7 Totals………. 280.00 17.82 4,990.00 2.28
LABOR BURDEN Total Labor $$ Burden Rate Total Unit Cost
Burden = Taxes, Fringes, Insurance, HOOH, etc. 4,990.00 43.50% 2,170.65 0.99
Crew make-up Crew costsDays / hours
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Sequence the Activities
Place the activities in the most logical sequence Only consideration is physical constraint Don’t worry about who will do the work Don’t worry about rolling crews, etc.
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
CPM Schedule
If you are not scheduling using a CPM schedule – you’re not scheduling
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Does Anyone Know What This Is?
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Topological Construction Schedule
24 July 1957
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Sequencing
The right sequence is much more important than the planned dates
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
If You Have a Good Sequence!
A schedule with good logic has a very good chance of working properly, even if all of the estimated durations are wrong.
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
If You Have a Bad Sequence!
A schedule with bad logic has virtually no chance of working correctly, no matter the accuracy of duration estimates!
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Some Simple Rules
Every activity (except the first and last) MUST have a predecessor and successor activity – period.
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Keep Activities Small
Activities need to be broken into small enough portions that they can be sequenced in relation to other tasks and areas of the project easily.
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Accountability
Activities need to be broken into small enough pieces so that only one person is responsible for the activity.
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Critical Resources andResource Leveling
Critical resources are not craftsman or equipment.
You can get more with a phone call and money!
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Critical Resources
SUPERVISORS
The most critical resource is the number of responsible people that can be assigned and held accountable to complete tasks
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Assign Every Task to a Responsible Person Accountable for Its Completion
When you run out of names, you’ve reached the limit of what will get done in that day.
On most outages, a lead person or foreman can not oversee more than about three tasks per day.
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Resource Leveling
Reassign activities to uniformly spread the work for each lead person over the outage and eliminate non-work periods and over subscribed periods.
Bob
BobDon’t Stack Activities
Do String Activities
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Band by Person
Band by person
Color by person
Look for blank space or for stacked activities
2001 2002DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY
31 7 14 21 28 4 11 18 25 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6
Mike N. Ooopsie 0181 4,51
MOTOR GROUNDSAND INSPECTIONS
0149 2,57
MOTORGROUNDS
0150 1,57
KILN HOODCAMERA
0151 2,58
KilnThermocouples
Nunzio O. Pokieman 0155 4,59
CALIBRATESWITCH GEAR
0172 1,69
OXYGENANALYZER
Paul Q. Redowork 0154 2,39
WARMUP KILN
0143 0,37
EMPTYFEED TANK
0144 0,37
BURNKILN OUT
Quincy R. Sleepsonthejob
0187 10,71
COAL MILL ROLLSAND INTERNALS
Raul S. Takeabreak 0173 1,66
INSPECTFEED TANK
0185 2,44
DRAGCHAIN
0174 1,66
DUSTELEVATOR
0175 2,66
FEEDSCREW
0171 1,63
DUSTSCREWS
0176 1,63
FEEDTANK D.C.
0178 0,65
EMERGENCYAIR DAMPERS
Steve T. Unmotivated 0184 3,38
CLINKERBREAKER
0182 2,54
COOLERFANS
0145 1,37
PULLKILN HOOD
0191 1,71
TRIPLEGATE VALVES
0056
#2 COOLERDRAG
0166 6,62
REPLACE BAGS -3 COMPARTMENTS
0152 6,57
REPLACE CHAINAS NEEDED
0153 0,39
CLOSE HOOD &INSTALL BURNER PIPE
0147 3,60
REPAIR HOODSEALS SHROUD
0168 3,64
FLUIDDRIVE
0167 1,69
I.D.FAN
0170 1,69
MULTICONES
0169 1,64
REVERSEAIR FAN
0177 1,64
FEEDBLOWERS
0180 9,39
GRATES AND BEAMS
0183 3,53
COOLERDRIVE
0146 1,37
REPLACE NOSECASTINGS
0148 2,62
KILNREPAIRS
Tommy U. Viaduct 0192 0,89
MOTOR GROUNDSAND INSPECTIONS
0188 4,71
COALMILL FAN
0189 2,71
REPAIR COALMILL CYCLONE
0190 1,71
COAL MILL CYCLONETIPPING GATE
Xenia Y. Lazyone 0157 1,37
TEAR OUTBRICK
0159 2,37
BRICK KILN -contractor
0160 2,37
REFRACTORYPATCHES IN KILN
0158 1,37
CLEANOUT KILN
0164 3,59
BRICKMATERIAL COSTS
0161 1,37
POURNOSE
0163 1,37
REFRACTORYPATCHES IN KILN
0162 2,38
POUR REFRACTORYIN COOLER
Plot Date 18FEB02Data Date 13JAN02Project Start 5JAN02Project Finish26APR02
(c) Primavera Systems, Inc.
A c t i v i t y B a r / E a r l y D a t e sa c t i d r d t f
C r i t i c a l A c t i v i t yP r o g r e s s B a rM i l e s t o n e / F l a g A c t i v i t y
Date ApprovedCheckedRevision
L e a d P e r s o n
Q u i n c y R . S l e e p s o n t h e j o b R a u l S . T a k e a b r e a k
T o m m y U . V i a d u c t M i k e N . O o o p s i e
N u n z i o O . P o k i e m a n P a u l Q . R e d o w o r k
X e n i a Y . L a z y o n e S t e v e T . U n m o t i v a t e d
TL-01 Lead Person on Kiln 2Lone98
Lone Star IndustriesL S 0 3 S h e e t 1 o f 1
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Band by Person (cont.)
Band by person
Color by person
Look for blank space or for stacked activities
BU Boiler UnitBOIL William F. Simon - Boilermaker/Mech Supervisor
OPER Kathleen M. Black - Operations Manager
PIPE Michael S. Reese - Pipefitter Supervisor
WELD John R. Daly - Welder Superintendent
TU Tur bine Gener atorBOIL William F. Simon - Boilermaker/Mech Supervisor
J AN3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4
0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0
Te s t Sa fe ty Va lv e s
Ope n Ins pe c tion Doors
Cha nge Oil in Pre he a te r Be a rings
Sc a ffold Re he a te r Se c tion
Lubric a te Va lv e s a nd Re pa ir Ga s Va lv e s
Lubric a te Air Sha fts
Che c k Burne rs
Re pa c k Va lv e s
Fire Boile r
Conne c t Ac id Piping a nd Ac id Cle a n Boile r
Ins pe c t Air Duc ts
Re pa ir Re he a te r Tube s a nd Pe e phole Ga s k e ts
Re m ov e a nd Cle a n Piping
Ins pe c t Air Pre he a te rs a nd Fa n Be a rings
Re pa ir Blowdown Line
Ere c t Sa ndbla s t Struc ture
Re m ov e La gging
Re m ov e Ex ha us t HDB.
Re m ov e Ex ha us t Hood a nd Inne r She ll Bolting
Re m ov e Inne r She ll
Sa ndbla s t Spindle
Cle a n Bolts a nd She ll J oints
Ma gna flux Spindle
Boiler UnitWilliam F. Simon - Boilermaker/Mech Supervisor
Kathleen M. Black - Operations Manager
Michael S. Reese - Pipefitter Supervisor
John R. Daly - Welder Superintendent
Tur bine Gener atorWilliam F. Simon - Boilermaker/Mech Supervisor
© Primavera Sys tems , Inc .
Start Date 05JAN00 00:00
Finish Date 22JAN00 12:59
Data Date 08JAN00 00:00
Run Date 26FEB02 04:38
Early Bar
Progress Bar
Cri tical Ac tiv i ty
OUTG
Nort heast Ut ilit ies Co.
Demonst rat ion Out age Project
Grouped by Subproj && Responsibilit y
Sheet 1 of 3
Date Rev is ion Checked Approved
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Work All of the Time!
168 hours in a week
Most projects, even accelerated projects, use less than 40% of the available time.
5x8’s 40 hrs 24%
5x10’s 50 hrs 30%
6x12’s 72 hrs 43%
7x12’s 84 hrs 50%
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Night Shift Syndrome
Poor productivity
Caused by least skilled workforce
Caused by poor supervision
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Night Shift Solutions
Solve by assigning more senior supervisors and craftsmen to night shifts
Be prepared to pay a shift differential
Project managers have to work nights, too!
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Anticipate Productivity Loss
Only 75% productivity 1st week of 7x12’s
Only 70% productivity 2nd week of 7x12’s
Only 65% productivity 3rd week of 7x12’s
7x12’s will produce less than hours of productive work by week 6
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Anticipate Non-Work Periods
Don’t plan outages that will go through major holidays
If you must, anticipate loss in productivity or a loss in attendance
Also high probability of non-delivery by suppliers
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Plan on multiple shifts
Increase critical resources
Means more supervision – Assistant project managers Superintendents Foreman Lead craftsmen
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Bag and Tag
Pre-package nuts/bolts/gaskets for particular tasks – minimize time looking for parts Palletize parts Use bins Piles as a last resort
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Organize Laydown Areas by Task
B2
B4
B6
B8
B10
B1
B3
B5
B7
B9
A2
A4
A6
A8
A10
A1
A3
A5
A7
A9
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Organize Laydown Area by Foremanor by Equipment / System
Crusher
PH Twr
Clinker Dome
Silo’s
Conveyors
Kiln
Cooler
Pan Conv
Finish Mill
Raw Mill
Bob
David
Frank
Hank
Jack
Andy
Charles
Ed
George
Inez
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Walkdowns
Prior to finalizing schedule and duration estimates, have each responsible person walk down their list of items.
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Negotiations with Lead People
After walkdowns have been completed, get 100% buy-in from each person.
“I can depend upon you to complete your tasks in the assigned time—correct?”
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Negotiations with Lead People (cont.)
If there is any hesitation, negotiate to supply more resources, lengthen the duration, or make other changes – before you finalize the plan.
Do not go into the outage without 100% buy-in from every lead person for his/her portion of the work.
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Resource and Cost Loading
Only two resources are necessary to measure status and progress Cash value Hours
Everything else is just extra – keep it simple.
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Earned Value
If you’re not measuring progress and performance using earned value – you’re not measuring progress or performance.
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Earned Value (cont.)
Cash allows earned value measurements on the dollar values Can be skewed by major equipment deliveries Can be skewed by materials / erection equipment Project managers often don’t have control over the
price of materials, etc.
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Earned Value (cont.)
Hours allows earned value measurements on the actual effort plus provides a basis for job population counts.
Project managers have control over Labor Amount of labor available Application of labor
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Performance Measurement and Reporting
If it seems to complicated, simplify it to fit your projects.
Remember, during an outage updates and progress reporting must be done daily or even with every shift change.
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Earned Value
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Days
Ma
nh
ou
rs
BCWSBCWPACWP
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Hours – Daily amd Cumulative
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Days
Daily
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Cu
mm
ula
tive
Daily Plan
Cumm Act
Daily Act
Cumm Plan
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
One Page Status Summaries
Consider multiple small graphs all using the same time scale
Allows reviewer to get the big picture quickly
Competitor Cement - MichiganDay 8 of 17
Annual Maintenance Outage Status Summary - Spring 2002
Number of Men
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23Days
Men
Planned
Actual
Raw Manhours Planned vs Expended
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23Days
Dai
ly
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Cum
mul
ativ
e
Planned
Act. Daily
Cumm. Plan
Act. Cumm.
Completed Work Orders
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23Days
Dai
ly
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Cum
mul
ativ
e
Daily Plan
Daily Act.
Cumm. Plan
Cumm. Act.
WORK ORDERS ARE TAKEN TO STATUS 90 AND HELD TO FACILITATE ANY ADDITIONAL PARTS TO BE ORDERED!!!!!!!!!!!NO MEASUREMENT!!!!!!
Schedule Tasks Completed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23Days
Dai
ly
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Cum
mul
ativ
e
Daily Plan
Daily Act.
Cumm. Plan
Cumm. Act.
Earned Value - Manhours
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17
Th
ou
san
ds
Days
Man
ho
urs
BCWSBCWPACWP
Performance Indices
0.0000
0.2500
0.5000
0.7500
1.0000
1.2500
1.5000
1.7500
2.0000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Days
CPI
SPI
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Here’s What We Told You!
Define the work
Plan your work
Assign every task to someone
Perform walkdowns in advance
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Here’s What We Told You! (cont.)
Negotiate for 100% buy-in
Measure – report by person
Organize parts / materials logically
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Two Most Important Points
Most critical resource is supervision
Work all of the time that is available
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Questions?
Copyright © 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Contact Us!
Mike Stone Professional Project Management ServicesP.O. Box 546 Richmond, TX 77406
281 / 343-0712 [email protected]