coping with analysis in the age of qe coping with analysis in the age of qe michael kahn, cmt...
TRANSCRIPT
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Coping with Coping with Analysis in the Age Analysis in the Age
of QEof QE
Michael Kahn, CMTMichael Kahn, CMTMichael Kahn Research LLC Michael Kahn Research LLC
November 2012November 2012
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Save us Obi Ben Bernanke
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Ben Lightyear.
QE to infinity and beyond!
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Have another shot of Bernanke juice.
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Ben Bernanke as a child
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Who am I?Who am I?
Chartered Market Technician (CMT)Chartered Market Technician (CMT) trained and certified in market trained and certified in market
analysisanalysis late addition – not a numbers or late addition – not a numbers or
systems guysystems guy
Columnist – Barron's OnlineColumnist – Barron's OnlineNewsletter Editor – Quick Takes ProNewsletter Editor – Quick Takes ProFormer charting software designerFormer charting software designerSocial Media Marketing wannabeSocial Media Marketing wannabe
……and beaten up enough by the marketsand beaten up enough by the markets
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What do I do for clients?What do I do for clients?
Help investors assess risk and Help investors assess risk and reward.reward.
no crystal ballno crystal ball
no tea leavesno tea leaves
no chicken entrailsno chicken entrails
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What is Technical Analysis?What is Technical Analysis?
A method of evaluating securities A method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by by analyzing statistics generated by market activity. market activity.
-- from the Market Technicians Association -- from the Market Technicians Association websitewebsite
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What is Fundamental Analysis?What is Fundamental Analysis?
A method of evaluating a security A method of evaluating a security that entails attempting to that entails attempting to measure its intrinsic value by measure its intrinsic value by examining related economic, examining related economic, financial and other qualitative and financial and other qualitative and quantitative factors.quantitative factors.
-- from the CFA Institute website-- from the CFA Institute website
(and Investopedia)(and Investopedia)
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What do they have in common?What do they have in common?
Neither one can handle Neither one can handle conditions that cause the conditions that cause the market to be restricted, market to be restricted, manipulated and otherwise not manipulated and otherwise not free.free.
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Cliché timeCliché time
It is time to:It is time to: Think outside the boxThink outside the box Bend but do not breakBend but do not break See the forest for the treesSee the forest for the trees Go with the flowGo with the flow
-- Are you getting my drift?-- Are you getting my drift?
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Key PointsKey Points
My bias – I use charts and believe My bias – I use charts and believe the market knows more than I the market knows more than I do.do.
No matter what happens, people No matter what happens, people tend to do similar things when tend to do similar things when faced with similar situations. faced with similar situations.
This is not brain surgery This is not brain surgery (with apologies to all the quants out there)(with apologies to all the quants out there)
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PeoplePeople
People’s behavior is the basis for People’s behavior is the basis for chart patterns. chart patterns.
Interpreting those patterns in Interpreting those patterns in 2007 was different than it was in 2007 was different than it was in 1997.1997.
Interpreting those patterns in Interpreting those patterns in 2012 is different than it was in 2012 is different than it was in 20072007
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The Big QuestionThe Big Question
Does market analysis work Does market analysis work anymore? anymore?
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The Big QuestionThe Big Question
Does market analysis work Does market analysis work anymore?anymore?
Yes! (mostly) Yes! (mostly)
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AdaptAdapt
An analogy:An analogy:Walls still hold up a roof.Walls still hold up a roof.Walls are now made of stone, not Walls are now made of stone, not wood.wood.Regular hammers and nails won’t Regular hammers and nails won’t work.work.
…… …….Try masonry nails. Maybe glue..Try masonry nails. Maybe glue.
The concept is the same. The concept is the same.
The implementation is different.The implementation is different.
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What is QE?What is QE?
Quantitative easing Quantitative easing (from Wikipedia)(from Wikipedia)
An unconventional monetary policy used by An unconventional monetary policy used by central banks to stimulate the national central banks to stimulate the national economy…. A central bank implements economy…. A central bank implements quantitative easing by buying financial assets quantitative easing by buying financial assets from commercial banks and other private from commercial banks and other private institutions with newly created money in order institutions with newly created money in order
to injectto inject… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … ZZZZzzzzz……..… … … … ZZZZzzzzz……..
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What is QE?What is QE?
I don’t careI don’t care
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What is QE?What is QE?
I don’t care for the dirty I don’t care for the dirty details and logic behind it.details and logic behind it.
All I need to know is that it is All I need to know is that it is a mechanism to provide a ton a mechanism to provide a ton of cash into the market.of cash into the market.
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What is QE?What is QE?
I don’t care for the dirty I don’t care for the dirty details and logic behind it.details and logic behind it.
All I need to know is that it is All I need to know is that it is a mechanism to provide a ton a mechanism to provide a ton of cash into the market.of cash into the market.
And where there is liquidity, And where there is liquidity, there are rising stock prices.there are rising stock prices.
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ProofProof
* Quantitative Easing * Long-Term Refinancing Operation
China stimulus too!
various shenanigans
and jawboning
ECB LTRO announced
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More recent proofMore recent proof
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More recent proofMore recent proof
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More recent proofMore recent proof
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More recent proofMore recent proof
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So, how do we cope?So, how do we cope?
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A little more gutA little more gut
Did not follow through
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AAII survey 70% bears
SentimentSentiment
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Try a little more bottom upTry a little more bottom up
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Try a little more bottom upTry a little more bottom up
Who was in crisis? Financials..
Now suddenly outperforming.
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RatiosRatios
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RatiosRatios
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RatiosRatios
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LeadershipLeadership
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Stuff that doesn’t workStuff that doesn’t work
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Stuff that doesn’t workStuff that doesn’t work
Moving average crossovers
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Stuff that doesn’t workStuff that doesn’t work
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Stuff that doesn’t work Stuff that doesn’t work
Volume
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Stuff that doesn’t work Stuff that doesn’t work
Volume
Well, it works in some applications
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Stuff that doesn’t work Stuff that doesn’t work
Volume
Well, it works in some applications
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Stuff that doesn’t work Stuff that doesn’t work
Well, it works in some applications
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Stuff that doesn’t work Stuff that doesn’t work
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Stuff that doesn’t work Stuff that doesn’t work
Bonds
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Stuff that doesn’t work Stuff that doesn’t work
Bonds VIX
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Case StudyCase Study
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Case StudyCase Study
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Now you are messing with me! Now you are messing with me!
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Opportunities are not cut and dryOpportunities are not cut and dry
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If you don’t see anything, it’s not there.If you don’t see anything, it’s not there.
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Keeping it usefulKeeping it useful
The focus is on action, not The focus is on action, not prediction.prediction.
I’d rather be right than President.I’d rather be right than President.
- Sen. Barry Goldwater- Sen. Barry Goldwater
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SummarySummary
New normal New normal (groan)(groan)
Sentiment plays a bigger Sentiment plays a bigger rolerole
Bernanke Put (trend is Bernanke Put (trend is up)…up)…
……or is it?or is it?
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SummarySummary
Diminishing returns from QEDiminishing returns from QE
We will emerge from this We will emerge from this market-meddling but with market-meddling but with slightly different tools of the slightly different tools of the trade.trade.
Human behavior will not Human behavior will not changechange
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The real reason we do The real reason we do this:this:
To make the buy, sell To make the buy, sell or hold decision.or hold decision.
Not to predict the futureNot to predict the future
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Don’t - Analysis Paralysis Don’t - Analysis Paralysis (groan)(groan)
- Get hung up on - Get hung up on precisionprecision
Do – K.I.S.S.Do – K.I.S.S. – Spirit of the analysis, – Spirit of the analysis, not the letter of the not the letter of the lawlaw (sorry again, quants)(sorry again, quants)
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Technical analysis is a Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal windsock, not a crystal ball.ball. - Carl Swenlin - Carl Swenlin
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Quick Takes ProQuick Takes Prowww.QuickTakesPro.com
Getting TechnicalGetting Technical www.Barrons.com
Trading StrategiesTrading Strategies www.MarketWatch.com
Books (Books (www.QuickTakesPro.com/education.html/education.html))Beginner’s Guide to Charting Financial MarketsBeginner’s Guide to Charting Financial Markets
Technical Analysis: Plain and Simple – 3Technical Analysis: Plain and Simple – 3ndnd edition edition
Real World Technical AnalysisReal World Technical Analysis
……plus my favorites from other authorsplus my favorites from other authors
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