COP21Presentation 3The Goals of CountriesFord & Eric

Caps and How They Are Set

Governments are slowly submitting their post 2020 targets

Dubbed “Intended Nationally Determined Contributions” Or INDC’s

These targets will form the basis of any agreement that may come out of Paris

Comparing Ambitions

• Brazil and EU taken on strongest targets

• India, Russia, and China on the weaker end of spectrum

• Lets look closer

United States Goals:

-17% reduction by 2020 based on 2005 levels -26% by 2025

Ambitious but possible goals EPA’s Clean Power Plan appears to put US on track Should be able to meet both goals with additional policies

States may independently try to reduce emissions

Uncertainty if next president will carry on Obama’s policies

Held back by congressional deadlock and climate change skepticism

China Predominantly coal powered (68% as of 2013)

Aiming for non-fossil fuel sources to make up 20% installed power by 2030

Driven by improving air pollution

Modest INDCs may be showing that China is progressing forward in its stance on climate change After years of resisting

The EU

Goals -20% reduction by 2020 based on 1990 levels -30% by 2030

Highest overall emissions reduction goals

Should be able to meet 2020 and 2030 goals without much change Well-developed environmental policy already in place Continues to implement renewable energy

Claims that international credits won’t be needed to reach goals This will likely change because the EU has supported the carbon

credit market in the past

India

One of the major sources of global emissions over the coming decades

Developing country Problem of alleviating mass poverty (275 million) Country might be unwilling to commit to an emissions

target that may constrain economic growth

On track for non-fossil fuel sources to make up 58% installed power by 2030

In COP21 will likely call for financial assistance in green development

India’s Forecast

Brazil

Most ambitious INDC submitted

Plans to increase non-fossil energy to 45% of 2030 energy usage Emphasis on

biofuel: looking to make up 18% by 2030

Motivated by effects of climate change, particularly drought

Russia

Goals: -15% reduction by 2020 based on 1990 levels -25% by 2030

Actually allows for 71% emissions growth compared to today 1990 levels apparently refer to entire Soviet Union Emissions have fallen since breakup of the Soviet Union

Unwilling to take on ambitious goals despite international pressure Political funding from oil and gas industries Government hostile to climate change mitigation

Russia’s Forecast

Sources

Bloomberg New Energy Finance

UNFCCC

World Bank

IMF

Questions?