cop 21 paris journalist seminar - european external action...
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Climate Action
COP 21 Paris journalist seminar
23-24 June 2015
Climate Action
EU's leadership in the international climate negotiations and
developments of domestic policies
Artur Runge-Metzger
Director, International & Climate Strategy
Directorate-General for Climate Action
European Commission
23 June 2015
Climate Action
EU leading by example (1): 2008 – 2020 / 2030 framework / 2050 roadmap
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80%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Current policy
Power Sector
Residential & Tertiary
Non CO2 Other Sectors
Industry
Transport
Non CO2 Agriculture
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4.200
4.400
4.600
4.800
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5.200
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5.800
KP
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EU-28 +IS historic emissions EU-28 projections With Existing Measures
estimated overachievement compared to target 2013-20 Target for the 1st commitment period (2008–2012)
Target for the 2nd commitment period (2013–2020)
CP1 Kyoto Mechanisms
CP1 C.sinks
4.3 GtCO2 eq
1.5 GtCO2 eq
5.8 GtCO2 eq
Overachievement CP1:
Potential Overachievement CP2:
Total :
Climate Action
EU leading by example (2): Growing the economy, reducing energy dependence,
reducing emissions
Source: EC Impact assessment, A policy framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 up to 2030 (SWD/2014/015 final)
Climate Action
EU leading by example (3): Spearheading low-carbon innovation
Between 1995 and 2010 the average consumption of new cars in the EU decreased by 27%
New dwellings built today consume on average 40% less than dwellings built 20 years ago
The share of refrigerators meeting the highest energy efficiency labelling classes (A and above) increased from less than 5% in 1995 to more than 90% 15 years later
EU industry improved its energy intensity by almost 19% between 2001 and 2011, compared with 9% in the US
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EU cannot do it alone (1): Origin of global CO2 emissions
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EU cannot do it alone (2): Global trends since 1990
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EU cannot do it alone (3): Opportunities for global emission reductions
Global mitigation scenario in line with staying below 2°C,
compatible with robust economic growth Source: EC-JRC POLES model, GECO2015
Climate Action
EU cannot do it alone (4): Broadening global climate action well beyond Kyoto
• Global agreement on staying below
2°Celsius (Copenhagen/Cancun)
• Around 100 countries responsible for >
80% of global GHG emissions made
concrete emission pledges
(Copenhagen/Cancun), including all
major economies, until 2020
• Growing global action, but fragmented
and diverse
• Growing action outside the UNFCCC, e.g.
cities, business, plurilateral cooperative
initiatives
• Durban mandate – applicable to all 9
Climate Action
EU cannot do it alone (5): Efficient cars are spreading
Climate Action
EU cannot do it alone (6): Staying below 2°C requires ambitious global action 2020–30
Source: Climate Action Tracker, December 2014
Warming projected by 2100 Baselines 4.1- 4.8 °C Current policy projections 3.6 – 4.2 ° C With EU, US, CN pledges 2.9 – 3.1 ° C Below 2 C: 1.5 – 1.7 ° C Below 1.5 C: 1.3 – 1.5 ° C
Climate Action
Thank you! http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/brief/eu/
Climate Action
2030 presentation and process of international contributions (INDC) and questions of adequacy of global efforts
Tom van Ierland
Deputy Head of Unit, Strategy and Economic Assessment
Directorate-General for Climate Action
European Commission
23 June 2015
Climate Action
INDC of the EU and its Member States
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Parties EU and its Member States acting jointly
Type Absolute reductions from base year emissions.
Coverage Economy wide absolute reduction from base year
emissions.
Scope All GHG not controlled by the Montreal Protocol:
CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3.
Base year
1990
Period 1 January 2021 – 31 December 2030.
Climate Action
INDC of the EU and its Member States
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Parties EU and its Member States acting jointly
Reduction level At least 40% domestic emission reduction in
GHG emissions by 2030.
% emissions
covered 100%
Agriculture
forestry and
other land uses
Policy on how to include LULUCF into the
2030 GHG mitigation framework will be
established as soon as technical conditions
allow and in any case before 2020.
Net contribution
of international
market-based
mechanisms
No contribution from international credits.
Climate Action
Next steps – Developing legislation for implementation as of 2021.
• ETS: 2030 target: -43% compared to 2005
Market Stability Reserve agreed
ETS review: draft legislation, mid-2015
• Non ETS: 2030 target: -30% compared to 2005
On-going public Consultations
Draft legislation, 2016
LULUCF to be integrated. Building on KP rules, ensuring no backsliding.
• New governance system
Climate Action
Intended nationally determined contributions.
Source: WRI Paris contribution map, PBL Infographics, 19 June 2015 Submitted INDC cover 30% global emissions. Need a critical mass of clear, ambitious, timely contributions by Paris. UNFCCC Secretariat Synthesis report: November 2015.
Climate Action
Share 2012
GHG emissions
GHG emission reduction target
Switzerl. 0.1% -50% By 2030 Below 1990
EU 9% At least -40% By 2030 Below 1990
Norway 0.1% At least -40% By 2030 Below 1990
Mexico 1.3% -25% (conditional: -40%) By 2030 Below BAU*
US 12% -26% to -28% By 2025 Below 2005
Gabon 0.1% -50% By 2025 Below BAU
Russia 5.3% -25% to -30% By 2030 Below 1990
Canada 1.9% -30% By 2030 Below 2005
Morocco 0.2% -13% (conditional: -32%) By 2030 Below BAU
Ethiopia 0.3% -64% (conditional) By 2030 Below BAU
China** 24% Peaking By 2030 'best efforts to peak early'
Japan*** 2.8% -26% By 2030 Below 2013
Serbia**** 0.1% -9.8% By 2030 Below 1990
Mitigation objectives included or expected in INDC
* Mexican INDC includes Short Lived Climate Pollutants ** US-China joint announcement on Climate Change, Beijing, China, 12 November 2014 *** Announced at G7, to be submitted to UNFCCC in July **** Adopted by PM on 11 June, to be submitted to UNFCCC in June-July
Climate Action
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2015, Special report on Climate Change
Aggregate stock-take of Intended nationally determined contributions.
INDC scenario IEA special
report on climate change
Submitted Expected
Switzerland Japan
EU Korea
Norway China
Mexico India
US Brazil
Gabon
Russia
Climate Action
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2015, Special report on Climate Change
Aggregate stock-take of Intended nationally determined contributions.
Climate Action
All economies need to converge, starting with the major ones
Source: EC-JRC, GECO2015
Climate Action
All economies need to converge, starting with the major ones
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook Special Report 2015: Energy and Climate Change
Source: EC-JRC, GECO2015
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Dynamism - 5 yearly reviews to increase ambition, and stay below 2°C
Climate Action
Thank you! http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/brief/eu/
Climate Action
EU's climate diplomacy
Stephan Auer
Director of Multilateral Relations and Global Issues
European External Action Service (EEAS)
23 June 2015
Climate Action
Renewables, Energy Efficiency, 2030
Marie Donnelly
Director for Renewables, Research and Innovation, Energy Efficiency
Directorate-General for Energy
European Commission
23 June 2015
Climate Action
EU climate policy and the Emissions Trading System (ETS)
Damien Meadows
Adviser, European and International Carbon Markets
Directorate-General for Climate Action
European Commission
23 June 2015
Climate Action
The EU ETS and its role in Energy Union
The ETS is a functioning instrument to decarbonise (since 2005),
applying across 31 countries, and half of EU's CO2 emissions
Binding linear reduction trajectory, with the EU-level price signal
reinforcing internal market and uptake of low carbon technologies
Shift since 2013 to significant auctioning, with Member States'
revenues and dedicated funds supporting low carbon innovation
Harmonised free allocations across EU for industries & heat,
addressing risk of carbon leakage
State-of-the-art and secure single electronic registry, and
allowances fully included in financial market regulations
Climate Action
Backloading and the Market Stability Reserve
Back-loading Persistent surplus Rapid accumulation
Long discussion following recession + influx of JI/CDM drawing to a close
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Continued imbalance would have profoundly affected ability to meet the medium-term target in a cost-effective manner
EU ETS made more resilient to large demand shocks in future
Climate Action
International uptake of ETS
More and more calls for actual carbon pricing
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EU ETS up to 2030 'A well-functioning reformed EU ETS' as main European instrument
Annual 2.2% cap reduction from 2021 to deliver 43% cut
Free allocation to prevent carbon leakage continued
Redistribution of auction revenue: 90% among all 28 Member States / 10% among lower income Member States
Scaled up Innovation funding (400 million allowances)
Modernisation fund + national action to modernise power gen
Climate Action
EU ETS aspects seldom reported
The EU ETS directly funds innovation
Aviation's inclusion in ETS is working
and effective: annual reductions,
>99% compliance including over 100
commercial airlines from outside EU
Major use of EU ETS auction revenues
(€3bn for 2013), Member States' use of
2014 revenues reported in coming months
Climate Action
The challenge of communicating carbon pricing
• - Important role of journalists
• - Progress is generally incremental
• - EU's experience putting carbon pricing into practice
Climate Action
Final words on first day of seminar
Jos Delbeke
Director General
Directorate-General for Climate Action
European Commission
23 June 2015
Climate Action
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