coordination meeting of drr focal points of technical commissions and programmes geneva,14 -16...
TRANSCRIPT
Coordination Meeting of DRR Focal Points of Technical Commissions and Programmes
Geneva,14 -16 October 2013
Presenters1Johnson Maina and 2Yuri Simonov
Commission for Hydrology (Chy) AWG1Kenya Meteorological Service, Nairobi-KENYA2Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, RUSSIAN FEDERATION
WMOCHy
Name of Technical Commission Focal Point:
Title First name
Last name
Phone number e-mail address
Dr Ann Calver +44 1223 812197
Please provide the following information on who has been consulted to complete your response
Title First name
Last name
Role within Technical Commission
e-mail address
Dr Harry Lins President , Commission for Hydrology
Mr Bruce Stewart Director, Hydrology and Water Resources Department, WMO
Acknowledgement
With support of
Ann’s report to DRR Coordination Meeting
Hydrological Hazards
• Hydrological extremes are plainly crucial – floods and droughts; •Overall hydrological characterisation may also be important in terms of background to other hazardso Landslides/Mudflows/Debris
flows/Land subsidence• Risks are to human wellbeing (health and safety), water and food supply, mobility/transport, power supply, industrial functioning, and environmental quality concerns
•Hydrological disasters have both fast and slow run-in times, and recovery times vary; •Sequences of events can be important
source: Swiss Federal Office for Civil Protection
The Disaster Cycle
The Problem: Hydro-Meteorological Risks
• Hydrological domain is one where intervention is possible to a degree; it has the challenge of being a multi-use and time-varying domain
• Better strategic planning is likely to reduce operational time-of-disaster stress• Risk management in hydrology is often less dependent on other regions/nations
than in the case of atmospheric risks: this has an impact on the degree of need for standardisation of data/approach
The Hydro-meteorological setting – hydrological cycle
source: M Bramley
groundwater
Key drought risk activities
•Monitoring development of conditions•Analysis of
• drought severity• drought frequency estimation• development of drought indices• vulnerabilities• extent
•Forecasting of droughts
drought risk
Key flood risk activities
•Real-time monitoring and detection•Short-term flood forecasting, warning!•Longer term flood frequency estimation•Inundation extent, risk maps•Specific aspects e.g. urban flooding,
groundwater floods•Impacts assessment, X-sectoral!
(economic costs/damage: water supply, infrastructure, agiculture, health, food security, affected population, ..) •Preparedness!!! timely warning, control structures, … •Response plan: relief, evacuation, search and rescue, evacuation centres…•Role play! Cross sectoral
flood risk
Further hydro-meteorological
involvement
•Heavy precipitation: o Storms - rain and snowo tropical cyclone/hurricanes
/typhoonso tornadoso extreme winds/ gustso thunderstormso coastal flooding, storm surgeso landslide / mudslideo rapid melting of glaciers
•Earthquakes and tsunamis•Waterborne hazards – characterisation of hydrology and hydrogeology•Water contamination •Sea water intrusion and salination of fresh waters•Use of flood waters – harvest for irrigation
source: VLWRC
groundwater flow paths
potential contaminant pathways
COMMISSION FOR HYDROLOGY
ACTIVITIES RELATED STANDARDSOF RISK ASSESSMENT
The Commission for Hydrology directs a major part of its work towards risk assessment and/or relevant areas, Capacity Building and Guidelines. Works closely with other bodies: •WMO Technical Commissions; CIMO, CBS, Cyclone Centres, …•Member States, NMHS: routine weather forecasting and warnings, local flood warning systems, drought forecasts/advisories, downscaling of global products, linkages with national & international disaster management agencies, dissemination of warnings/risk information (e.g. media, RANET) •International agencies: UNESCO, ISO, UNDP, IHP, …•Institutions: SMHI, DHI, USGS, UKMO, ICHARM, WMTC•Regional Climate Centres: ICPAC, ACMAD,IRI,UKMO,..•Support agencies
• Flood Forecasting Initiative, FFI• Associated Programme for Flood Management, APFM• Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project
(CIFDP)• Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project
(SWFDP) • World Hydrological Cycle Observation System
(WHYCOS)/ Regional Hydrological Cycle Observation Systems (HYCOS)
oo0oo• WMO Integrated Global Observation System (WIGOS)• WMO Information System (WIS)• Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)• others
COMMISSION FOR HYDROLOGY PROGRAMES/PROJECTS
Commission for Hydrology
The WMO Flood Forecasting Initiative (FFI)
Overall Objective of global/regional activities
Improve the capacity of meteorological and hydrological services to jointly deliver timely and more accurate products and services required in flood forecasting and warning and
in collaborating with disaster managers, active in flood emergency preparedness and response.
Data Communication
Forecast &Warning
DecisionSupport
Notification Coordination Actions
Hydrological Observations
Data transmission Flood Forecasting
Decisions Appropriate
Individuals&
Groups
Preparedness,Response and
Decisions
Evacuation andRescue operations
a Critical Chain of Events and Actions
Commission for Hydrology
Flood forecasting, warning and Flood forecasting, warning and response system response system
Commission for Hydrology COMPONENTS OF THE WMO – FFI
OVERVIEW
STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN
ACTIVITY PLAN IN SUPPOERT OF THE SAP
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED PROGRAM ON FLOOD MANAGEMENT
PUBLICATIONS
PROJECTS
INTERNATIONAL FLOOD INITIATIVE
DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS
Commission for Hydrology Publications• Technical Regulations, volume III: Hydrology 2006
• Manuals
• [ International Glossary of Hydrology – with UNESCO ]
• Guidelines / guidance material especially the Guide to Hydrological Practices 2008
• Technical documents
Commission for Hydrology documents - continued
Commission for Hydrology documents - continuedVarious technical reports
Various reports from operational hydrology series•CHy XIII Annex 1 to resolution 1: A quality management framework in hydrology• Technical material for water resources assessment•Climate and information requirements for water management
LINK TO WMO PUBLICATIONS - DETAILS
Examples of how in practice hydrology assesses disaster risk and the data and
techniques involved ... ...
© RAF Benson
Real-time river flood ensemble forecasting
source: UK Met Office & NERC
based on precipitation data and forecasts, with catchment hydrological models
calibrated based on past river flow data record
precipitation river flows
Flood inundation extents/ maps
based on long river flow records, statistical analyses, hydraulic
modelling
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07
Flo
w (
Ml/d
)
Excep High Note High Above norm Norm Below norm Note low Excep low Actual
120%
% of AverageRainfall
100%
80%60%
Projecting river flow for drought development awareness
source: Environment Agency, England
based on river flow records, catchment precipitation, catchment hydrological modelling, calibrated on past records
Long-term drought frequencies
source: European Environment Agency
Relative change in minimum river flow with
return period of 20 years compared with
1961-1990
Some key cross-cutting issues
• Hydrological modelling and forecastingo Sparsity/ availability
and quality in large areas of Hydrological and Meteorological data
o Uncertainty / robustness /error evaluation/ scales
o Non-stationarity
• Quality management/standards
• Capacity Building: o education, o technology transfer, o Information transfer/
dissemination
source: DHI
CONCLUDING REMARKS
•Level to which hydrological risks are currently managed
varies greatly world-wide and with the specific risk – this
is in part a function of assessment abilities;
•Hydrological risks are closely linked to climate
variability and change; hydrometeorology!
•Anthropogenic influences significant: land-use and
land-cover changes
•Both standard and non-standard data and methods are
used in hydrological risk assessment: suites of
hydrological standards may be more appropriate than
single standards;
•Realistic aim: a world-wide hydrological risk awareness
by practitioners o on linkages to climate variability, human activities –
settlements, cultural and economico on the range of available hydrological techniques
/solutions at different levels, o on use of hydrological information to reduce disaster
risk
further information: [email protected]
Thank youfor
yourattention
CHy