Universität zu Köln

Cool Facts

for a hot Debate

- A Wake-up Talk -

Christoph Buchal

Forschungszentrum Jülich und Universität zu Köln

( Lecture and Books: ENERGY, CLIMATE, ELECTRICTY, MOBILITY … + )

EPS Rome, 24.9.2015

A Look at the Heart of Democracy

In the long run counts

what most people fear, think, hope, ���

say and vote for.

Of very limited influence is

what scientists advise.

This fact will more than anything else determine

the future of energy technologies in Europe.

(10 years of talks and nearly 400 000 books did not reach the politicians)

Blaise Pascal (1623- 1662): Uncertainty and Religion

We do not know the facts

about Religion and God , ���

but we can carefully ���

try a path of Ethics.

Today: ���Climate Change became „Religion“ and „worth a Cruisade“

We are stuck in a Puzzle of Uncertainties …

Climate Change … y

Natural … y Human … y

Are there realistic measures … ?

Consequences: bad or good ?

Relative Global Importance ?

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True

1.  Human Contribution to CO2 in the Atmosphere

2.  Green House Physics

Open

1.  Temperature Predictions

2.  Consequences for farming, living, sea level

3.  Food, Energy & Peace for 10 x 109 people

4.  Public Opinion

5.  Realistic action

The wisdom of the „Frogs“ against the „Iron Dogma“

Weather: unpredictable, 10 days rule

Physics of chaos

Solution: 30 years average

„Climate Periods“

are stable enough for modelling

„Is this DOGMA liberating us from

the power of chaos and nonlinear physics?“

NO! Look at last 500 years of climate history

(20.Century had a super-friendly climate in Europe)

Jetstream, Meander, up to 300 km/h, 10-15 km high

•  Auch „Chaos“ bestimmt über das Wetter (und das Klima) !

Jet creates the Highs and Lows

•  Einfach: thermisches Tief - hier aber Dynamisches Tief

„Dynamic Pressure Systems, Highs and Lows“

Can Climate Science avoid permanent Chaos ?

Climate: 30 years average for

Temp, Wind, Rain, …

Summer(7°) Winter(14°) vs. Full Year(5°)

Region

Global

These data sets show very different trends

More actors: sun, El Nino, NAO, volcanoes

and more chaos ?

Additional Concept

•  Note: The early hypothesis of the bistable earth

Nonlinear physics shows up again: Slow Trends, interrupted by Climate Tipping Points First consequence:

Predictions become unstable Second consequence: Most climate researchers become really afraid and

would like to stop any change Third consequence: Media hype, confused voters and politicians under pressure

0,6°C/100m

trocken: 1 °C/100 m

Falls Ozeantemp. um 1 °C steigt →Verdunstung steigt um 7% (11°C → 100%, Verdoppelung)

Wolken kühlen … oder wärmen…

Regen ist gut für …. Nordafrika, M.East, Antarctica + Überschwemmungen sind unerwünscht…

Clouds + Wind are a real problem for modelling

Bottom Line:

Please do not trust climate predictions

I have followed the never ending litany:

„We need more computing power…“

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Since the Era of Dinosaurs the global temperatures were dropping !

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The Earth keeps going thru very unstable climate conditions …

Super- Chaos- Climate

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I went thru

two Ice Ages

(160 000 years)

Australian Men: 3 Mio Jahre Homo Erectus: 1 Mio Jahre

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Oceans, Currents, CO2, Jetstream,… ��� Cicken - Egg – Problem, Instabilities, Tipping points, …

Universität zu Köln Erdoberfläche im Mittel 15 °C warm (Unser Mond: - 18°C)

SKIN - Temp.: -18°C = 255 K

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Slope unchanged only 2 ppm / year

July 2015: 401,30 ppm

D: 2,5% → global attractive ? or rich man´s sports ?

Thanks to the oceans ! (Tragedy: Riding the tiger)

MPI Meteorologie Hamburg: + 2° ab 1960

Analyse 2015: 10 Gt C/y linear sinkend auf 0 Gt C in 2100 (85 Jahre) verbleibende maximale Menge: 425 Gt C SRU: nur noch 210 Gt

KLIMA S. 163: Die fossilen Vorräte

Gt C Milliarden Tonnen Kohlenstoff

Verbraucht

-------------

Noch in der Erde

Für „2-Grad“ erlaubte Restmenge: 200 – 400 Gt modellabhängig

The future policy - as seen by our officials

SRU: The Official Scientific Advising Committee of the German Government recommends

80% of all accessible coal must remain in the ground

50% of all oil

50% of all natural gas

(Greenpeace: 100% R.E. until 2050 realistic + possible !)

Welt-Emissionen: ca. 36 Gt = 36 000 Mio t CO2equiv. Jährl. Zunahme: 800 Deutschland: 912 Mio. t = 2,5% der glob. Emiss.

„Fehlbetrag“: 160 Mio t - das ist in etwa der Beitrag der Braunkohle

Ziel: - 40% von 1.248

GROWTH of global CO2-Emiss: 10 000 Mio t in 12 years = 800 Mio t per year (2%/y) German National Total: 900

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Tr Tropen:T > +25 °CAntarktis:T < - 30 °C

Klimawandel: global ca. + 0,7 - 0,8 °C

Wo ist dasbesonders spürbar?Gewinner undVerlierer !

Der Mensch ist nur ein Akteur bei vielfältigen Prozessen

Interne Prozesse: Zirkulation (Atmosphäre, Ozean, …), Wechselwirkungen Externe Prozesse/Einflüsse: z.B. Sonne, Vulkane, Mensch

Cubasch/Kasang, 2010

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2015:

7,4 Milliarden

Feeding already more than 6,5 Billion people well

R&D of Fertilizer, Crop Science, Genetic Engineering (D.: No!)

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2100:

> 11 Billion

Africa: 1 → 5.1

Asia: ~ 5

Eur + N.America: < 1

R&D of fertilizer, crop science, genetic engineering, ENERGY

Die letzten 10 000 Jahre

Dombau in Warmperiode

Flächenbedarf dafür: 2000 x 2 km²= 4000 km²= 100 km x 40 km

Jülich - Bitburg - Rhein

Expect enormous fluctuations of wind and solar power Too much: Electrolysis … Hydrogen … Fuels too little: FOSSILE FUELS !

All German Storage ~ 40 GWh = 10% for 5 h

There is no seasonal storage in sight, not at all.

Count on hydrogen.

Use hydrogen smart !

Druckbetankung mit 700 bar (70 MPa)

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Wird das Klima extremer?

Dresden Aug. 2002 Düsseldorf, Aug. 2003

New Orleans, Aug. 2005 Febr. 2003

Motten (Rhön), Okt. 2005

More and more expensive desasters:

Ä More peopleÄ Higher standards of livingÄ Megacities with expensive InfrastructureÄ  Building in dangerous areasÄ  Sensitive, expensive technologyÄ More insurances boughtÄ  Climate Change ???

© 1999 GeoRisikoForschung, Münchener Rück

1926 2000 Florida aus dem All

Sources:http://www.awesomeflorida.com/history.htm���(http://www.esig.ucar.edu/rp_senate) - Wendler Collection; Roger Pielke ���http:\\www. worldweb.com; http://www.napa.ufl.edu/98news/bioland.htmhttp://www.bettertransportation.org/Issues/1999/additional_funding.htm

Einwohner1920: ca. 100.000���1950: ca. 3.000.000���2000: ca. 15.000.000���2025: ca. 25.000.000

Touristen1920: -1970: ca. 5.000.000 1999: ca. 45.000.000 2010: ca. 65.000.000

Florida: Bevölkerungstrends

Sommerhäuser am Atlantik

Uncertainty and Climate Change

We all want to be good –

but

We do not know the facts

about the future of climate, ���

so we only should ���

try a path of Ethics.

Is Climate Change really asking for a „radical Cruisade“ or are we Germans victims of (national) hysteria ?

Errors

Bio- Fuel and Bio – Electric Power

Feeding German cows &pigs with „rain forest“ soja

Running German cars with „Sustainable Palmoil“

Heating German houses with wood pellets from rain forest (Enviva)

Grand scale cheating with emission certificates (Atmosfair)

German general condemnation of nuclear power

of coal power plants

of genetic engineering

General inabilty to follow quantitative arguments���

General „NIMBY“ to power lines, wind turbines etc.

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1. Reconsider the Basics, … R & D … 2. Conserve Energy and resources, where useful

3. The real global challenge:

Food, Energy, Health and Peace for 10 x109 people

Germany: Green Lobby successfully seized Media & Politics

→ Re-education and language regulation

starting in Kindergarten

→ Industry already adapted the moralization of markets

→ expensive, frequently useless „climate laws/projects“

THINK ! Please do not jump on the „Angry Climate Bandwagon!“

…and carely recheck the mighty lobbies!