Cool change? How various Australian

cities can engage with climate issues

Phil McManusThe University of Sydney

Four Degrees or More: Australia in a Hot WorldMelbourne, July 2011

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Situating Australian Cities

Climate change is a big challenge for Australian cities, but this is situated within the bigger issue of sustainability.

Anthropogenic climate change is primarily the result of unsustainable practices which also lead to other significant environmental issues, including resource depletion environmental degradation loss of biodiversity.

Australian cities should be leading the world in mitigation and adaptation, and leading the world in the environmental management of other important issues.

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Australia contributes less than 1.5 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Our rate of emissions per capita is among the highest in the world.

Australia is part of fossil fuel networks but avoids attribution of emissions from the burning of coal exported to other countries.

The atmosphere does not recognise this accounting mechanism.

Mt. Arthur Coal Mine, Hunter ValleySource:http://archive.lee.greens.org.au/index.php/content/view/1350/65/

Pasha Bulker aground in Newcastle, 2007Source:http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/06/28/pasha_main_wideweb__470x296,0.jpg

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Source: http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2007/07/12/cargo_wideweb__470x282,0.jpg

Vessel queue: 23 ships at midnight on 15 June, 2011. Source Hunter Valley Coal Chain Coordinator - http://www.hvccc.com.au/Pages/welcome.aspx

The Port of Newcastle handles more than 1000 coal vessels per year.

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At the global scale Australians are wealthy consumers looking for cheaper products.

This is particularly the case in our largest cities. Climate change is predicted to significantly

impact Australian cities Temperature water availability sea level rise extreme events

We are a wealthy country with resources to address climate change issues.

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Low Elevation Coastal Zone

McGranahan et al (2007) identified the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) as the contiguous area along the coast that is less than 10 metres above sea level.

This zone covers 2 per cent of the world's land area and contains 10 per cent of the world's total population and 13 per cent of the world's urban population.

McGranahan et al (2007, 19) note that between 1994 and 2004, “half of the 120,000 people killed, and 98 per cent of the 2 million people affected by flood disasters were in Asia”.

Indian and Bangladeshi cities are vulnerable to climate change impacts, and have not been responsible for major amounts of greenhouse gas emissions.

Country % of Population in the LECZ

Total Population in the LECZ

India 6% 63 million people

Bangladesh 46% 62.5 million people

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Source- http://www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/news/2007/story03-29-07.php

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The Little Ice Age

The Little Ice Age in Europe between roughly 1300 and 1850AD has been linked to suffering in what was mainly a rural society.

The impacts certainly were felt in cities.

Source: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_d2loZqBoOgU/S1zy7xElZKI/AAAAAAAAA0c/1kMllPZYIKY/s320/The+Little+Ice+Age.jpg

Winter severity in Europe, 1000 - 1900. Based on Lamb, 1969 / Schneider and Mass, 1975.1

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Projected Impacts on Australian Cities

Cities in northern Australia, such as Cairns, are likely to experience more intense tropical cyclones, with wind speeds likely to increase in the future. A 10% increase in storm

intensity could result in a doubling of the area of flood inundation in the event of a 1 in 100 year storm.

Source- http://www.signaturestaff.com.au/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Cairns.jpg

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Between 26 000 and 33 000 kilometres of road, between 1200 and 1500 kilometres of rail infrastructure, and up to 8 600 commercial buildings and up to 6 200 industrial buildings, are at risk of erosion or inundation assuming sea level rise of 1.1 metres by 2100.

Source: http://c.photoshelter.com/img-get/I0000WMFBStqg4_I/s/750/750/NEWCASTLE-COAL-0584.jpg

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Mitigation in Australian Cities

We need to reduce the consumption of products where their manufacture and transportation generate significant greenhouse gas emissions.

This means moving towards local production where possible, and working to make it more sustainable.

It means carbon-neutral houses and buildings, and designing and operating urban transport systems with a view to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Examples are isolated and much more needs to be done.

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Sustainable House Day 2010 http://www.sustainablehouseday.com/

Commercially viable 4 storey office buildingMaximise the reuse of materials.Annual savings compared to a conventional building

• energy - 65% • CO2 emissions - 100%• water - 90%

http://www.acfonline.org.au/default.asp?section_id=138

60L Green Building, 60-66 Leicester St., Carlton

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Conceptualising Australians

These changes will not happen if people think of themselves only as consumers with a relationship to an emissions trading scheme, or with a personal interest in lowering their taxation payments.

Another framework is required, not to replace those frameworks, but to sit alongside them.

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Alternative Conceptual Frameworks

The International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) contributed significantly to meaningful climate change action through their Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) program that aimed to empower local authorities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

This valuable program involved approximately 250 local councils in Australia until it concluded in June 2009, which highlights both its success in garnering participation, but also the problem of fragmentation in Australian cities and the lack of effective metropolitan governance.

The latest generation of ICLEI CCP-IA (Integrated Action) is, understandably, still focused at the local government scale.

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In 2010 the Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF) produced their Sustainable Cities Index.

A comparative index of Climate Change Vulnerability, Mitigation and Adaptation (CC-VMA) in Australia’s 20 most populous cities would focus attention onto urban areas, and the actions of citizens.

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The CC-VMA Index

Vulnerability criteria could include temperature changes, rainfall changes, sea level rise, urban-bush interface, risk of flooding, and other relevant matters.

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Mitigation criteria could include the existence of an effective climate

change reduction working group in most councils in a city,

extent of actions on ICLEI’s CCP-IA, reductions in electricity generated from

coal fired power stations, and reductions in vehicle kilometres

travelled by private motorized vehicles.

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Adaptation criteria include urban forestry (also a form of mitigation), the percentage of buildings and infrastructure

that has been re-sited away from areas of high vulnerability,

proportion of food derived from local agriculture,

extent of water sensitive urban design (WSUD) to make better use of likely reduced available water supplies.

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Further research and great care is needed to ensure that the criteria are appropriate, do not duplicate or omit important concerns, and have rigorous and defensible means for measurement.

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Conclusion

In a world where four degrees of warming, or more, is a realistic scenario, the later we delay any meaningful responses, the worse the problem is likely to become.

History and vulnerability analysis suggests that cities are likely to be particularly hard hit by climate change impacts.

Due to the concentrations of people in cities who have become reliant on the resource and absorptive capacities of environments beyond their immediate purview, the negative impacts are likely to be experienced by more people than at any time in the history of the planet.

Unfortunately, in many parts of the world, these will be the poorest people who have contributed little, if anything, to the problem.

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Australia is a wealthy country with the capacity to mitigate and to adapt.

We will do neither, with grave consequences, unless we make it happen in our largest cities.

One feasible approach to facilitating action at the urban scale is a media salient Climate Change Vulnerability, Mitigation and Adaptation Index.