convert the extra point: 3 strategies anyone can use to measure the success beyond the last click by...
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#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
3 Strategies Anyone can use to Measure the Success Beyond The Last Click
Convert The Extra Point
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Meet Mark Irvine • Data Scientist at Wordstream in
Boston, MA
• Researches industry trends in PPC
• Been working Paid Search for 3 Years
• Before PPC Life, worked with NESN, ESPN, & CBS Sports
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
The MLB was dominated by teams with big pockets – who focused strongly on buying players around a small set of metrics. The Oakland Athletics GM, Billy Beane, found himself with a small budget, a gutted team, and a radical idea.
Moneyball – Baseball in 2001
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A Focus on New Metrics
Last Season’s Stats Recruit A Recruit B Recruit C
Age 22 25 31
HR 8 8 4
RBI 18 21 12
BA .313 .291 .222
On Base % .312 .321 .431
3 imaginary recruits
The focus of most MLB General Managers
The focus of the Oakland office
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The 2002 Oakland A’s won as many games as the New York Yankees – with only a third their budget
Oakland A’s take 20 game winning streak
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Small advertisers can’t afford to compete by looking at all the same metrics –
They need to play smarter.
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
New Media Playing With Old Metrics
Metric Shopping Specific Product Keywords
Broader “Top of the Funnel” Keywords
Click Volume 3,293 5,598 8,905
CTR 1.56% 2.96% 1.02%
CPA $92 $101 $233
Conversion Rate 1.86% 3.05% 0.65%
Conversions 61 170 58
Case study SMB Account:
Initial Reaction: Pause /pull back campaign!
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Campaigns Provide Value Beyond CPA § This campaign
produced a lot of traffic – but rarely ever converted.
100
120
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260
2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000
Con
vers
ions
Fro
m A
ll O
ther
Cam
paig
ns
Clicks in Poor Campaign
Original Performance
Original Performance
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Campaigns Provide Value Beyond CPA § Without making
major changes to any other campaign, we saw conversions from other campaigns begin to fall off as a result.
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2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000
Con
vers
ions
Fro
m A
ll O
ther
Cam
paig
ns
Clicks in Poor Campaign
So We Pulled Back on the Campaign
Original Performance
Pulling Back on Poor Performing Campaign
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Campaigns Provide Value Beyond CPA
§ And conversions still fell for a few more weeks.
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2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000
Con
vers
ions
Fro
m A
ll O
ther
Cam
paig
ns
Clicks in Poor Campaign
So We Stopped
Original Performance
Pulling Back on Poor Performing Campaign Following Weeks
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Campaigns Provide Value Beyond CPA § In this case, not only did reducing this “poor converting”
campaign reduce direct conversions. It also:
• Reduced the search interest in other campaigns by 10%. • Reduced the conversion rate in other search campaigns by
26%. • Reduced the conversion rate of all website traffic by 12%.
• Total online sales suffered an 18% drop.
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Token Funnel Slide
These searchers
Become prospects
Become customers*! *But not always in 1 click
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Attribution is Critical
§ 89% Of marketers believe attribution is important.
Source: AdRoll
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But Most Aren’t Thinking With It
§ But 66%
of marketers use a single-touch attribution model
Source: AdRoll
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
We all say we value attribution, but we clearly don’t know how to.
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Attribution Hat Trick Today’s 3 Goals: 1. Full Funnel Insight with Conversion
Paths 2. Choosing the Right Attribution Model 3. Attributing Online Action to Offline
Marketing
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Follow Conversion Paths
#1: Keep your eye on
the ball
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Different Campaigns Need to Play Different Positions
§ Some assist. § They create new
opportunities with new audiences and bring them closer to your goal.
§ Some convert. § They work with your
core audience and bring them directly to your goal.
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
We Need To Use Smarter Metrics
§ Conversion paths available on the Campaign, Ad Group, Keyword, & Search Query levels!
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Different Campaigns Need to Play Different Positions
§ These are your assisted conversions.
§ They create new opportunities with new audiences and bring them closer to your goal.
§ These are your direct conversions (last click).
§ They work with your core audience and bring them directly to your goal.
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Valuing Campaigns For What They’re Worth
§ Assisted conversions can be integrated into your decision metrics:
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Choosing The Right Attribution Model
#2: Play the Right
Game
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Not All Assists Are Worth The Same
Individual assists worth LESS
Individual assists worth MORE
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Not All Assists Are Worth The Same
Individual assists worth LESS
Individual assists worth MORE
Products or services with a short buying cycle or low profit margins on advertising.
Products or services with a long buying cycle or high profit margins on advertising.
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Google Attribution Models Model First Click Middle Clicks Last Click
Last Interaction (Default for Google Analytics)
0% 0% 100%
Last Non-Direct Click 0% 100% (All on the last non-direct click)
0% (If Direct)
Last AdWords Click (Default for AdWords)
0% 100% (All on the last AdWords click)
0% (If not AdWords)
First Interaction 100% 0% 0%
Linear Equal Equal Equal
Time Decay Least More Most
Position Based 40% 20% (Split Evenly) 40%
Data Driven (Available within GA Premium – soon to be rolled out further)
Based on source Based on source Based on source
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Position Based § Position based modeling heavily weights first and last
clicks § Ideal when your campaigns are designed to educate about
your product. § Great for when you’re trying to create a demand for your
niche.
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Time Decay § Time Decay modeling heavily weights most recent clicks § Ideal when your campaigns are designed to differentiate
yourself from competitors. § Great if you have several campaigns targeting the same
users while they’re evaluating their potential purchase.
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Comparing Models
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89 Work Other Channels Into Your Model
#3: Be a Team Player
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We Live in A Multi-Device World
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Offline Media Creates Online Action
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
Shar
e of
typi
cal a
ctiv
e w
ebsi
te u
sers
Time
Website Visitors Following Regional TV Buy
Active Website Visitors
2:29 – 6x active users
1:55 - Ad airs
2:02 – 6x active users
2:23 – Traffic 10% Elevated. Ad airs.
2:46 – Traffic 20% Elevated.
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Think Mobile First
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
Share of ty
pical ac/ve web
site users
Time
Website Visitors Following Regional TV Buy
Mobile Visitors
Tablet Visitors
Desktop Visitors
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We’re Looking At Multiple Screens – At the Same Time!
§ Source: “The New Multi-Screen World Study”,
§ Think With Google, 2012
Mobile users are 3x more likely
to respond to a commercial
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
And Other Channels Have Different Immediate Returns
Channel Reaction Period
TV & Radio Minutes
Social Hours
PPC Days
SEO Months
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Recap 1. Use Conversion Paths & Assisted
Conversion metrics to fully value your campaigns.
2. Find an Attribution Model that aligns with your marketing goals
3. Value other channels for their contribution
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
THANK YOU!
Mark Irvine, Data Scientist Wordstream