Contradictions between growth Contradictions between growth and sustainability: and sustainability:

Institutional innovations in the Institutional innovations in the BRICSBRICS

Peter H. MayPeter H. MayConference on De-GrowthConference on De-Growth

ESEE – Paris – 18-19 April 2008ESEE – Paris – 18-19 April 2008

BRICS panel – ISEE2006 DelhiBRICS panel – ISEE2006 Delhi

• Peter H. May (Brazil) – coordinatorPeter H. May (Brazil) – coordinator

• Ademar Romeiro (Brazil)Ademar Romeiro (Brazil)

• Stanislav Shmelev (Russia)Stanislav Shmelev (Russia)

• Jyoti Parikh (India)Jyoti Parikh (India)

• Zhu Dajian (China) Zhu Dajian (China)

• James Blignaut (South Africa)James Blignaut (South Africa)

Economic scale of the BRICSEconomic scale of the BRICS

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

BRICs

G62025: BRICs economies over half as

large as the G6

By 2040: BRICS

overtake the G6

BRICs Have a Larger US$GDP Than the G6 in Less Than 40 Years

GDP (2003 US$bn)

GS BRICs Model Projections.

The Largest Economies in 2050

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

Ch US In Jpn Br Russ UK Ger Fr It

GDP (2003 US$bn)

GS BRICs Model Projections.

Source: Goldman-Sachs

Questions raised by BRICS Questions raised by BRICS panelpanel• How are the BRICS (How are the BRICS (BBrazil, razil, RRussia, ussia, IIndia, ndia, CChina hina

and and SSouth Africa) coping with the paradox outh Africa) coping with the paradox between improvement in material wellbeing and between improvement in material wellbeing and exacerbation of local and global pressures on the exacerbation of local and global pressures on the environment? environment?

• What are the distributive consequences of rapid What are the distributive consequences of rapid economic growth? Are some groups profiting economic growth? Are some groups profiting disproportionately at the expense of overall disproportionately at the expense of overall poverty alleviation? poverty alleviation?

• What can the BRICS countries learn from each What can the BRICS countries learn from each other as they explore alternative energy and other as they explore alternative energy and material consumption pathways? material consumption pathways?

Population (2006)

China20%

Rest ofWorld57%

India17%

SouthAfrica

1%

Brazil3%

Russia2%GDP (2006)

Brazil2%

Russia2% China

6%

South Africa1%

India2%

Rest ofWorld

87%

Land area

Rest ofWorld70%

Russia13%

China7%

SouthAfrica

1%

India2%

Brazil7%

BRICS/WorldBRICS/WorldPopulation 43%Population 43%Land Area – 30%Land Area – 30%

GDP – 13%GDP – 13%

Implications of growth as well Implications of growth as well as stagnation or depressionas stagnation or depression

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Brazil Russia India China SouthAfrica

BRICS World

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

CO2 emissions per unit of GDP

CO2 emissions/ capita

Tools for a “circular economy”Tools for a “circular economy”

Developing Countries

Developed Countries

Public Participation

Market Mechanism

Regulatory Control

Resource Consumption

Economic Growth

But, is there a “turning But, is there a “turning point”?point”?

Deforestation, Brazilian AmazonDeforestation, Brazilian Amazon

What are we up against?What are we up against?

CattleCattleSoybeansSoybeansDeforestationDeforestation

Soybean exportsSoybean exportsto China and the to China and the EC, and role ofEC, and role ofexchange rateexchange rate

Air quality in RussiaAir quality in Russia

Industrial decline of 1991-1999 decreased concentrations of: particulates, SO2, ammonia, phenol, hydrogen fluoride, soot, and carbon bisulphide down 5-49%

Car fleet growth and deterioration have influenced increase in CO and NO2

up 13-15%

Emissions of CO2 in 1999 amounted to 6.1% of the world total (3rd place after USA and China).

The demand for more economic guarantees blocked the ratification of Kyoto Protocol

Mortality and life expectancy in RussiaMortality and life expectancy in Russia

Adult mortality (per 1000), 2002 - adult mortality risk, which is defined as the probability of dying between 15 and 59 years:

Males: 464

Females: 168

It is the highest value of all countries in WHO European Region

Life Expectancy at Birth1958-59, 1961-62, 1963-64, 1965-2002

55

60

65

70

75

Year

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

at B

irth

(yea

rs)

Female

Male

Russia fell 48 places in world life expectancy ranking from 1990 to 2003. (UN Human Development Report, 2003).

Births, Deaths, and Natural Increase in Population: 1960, 1965-2002

-1,000,000

-500,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Year

Popula

tion

Births

Deaths

NaturalIncrease

Extent of Land Degradation in India over the Extent of Land Degradation in India over the Years (million hectares)Years (million hectares)

Area Under 1947 1976 1977 1980-81 1984-85 1994 1997

1) Water erosion2) Wind erosionTotal3) Ravines and Gullies4) Ravine and torrents5) Saline and Alkali soils6) Waterlogging7) Shifting cultivation8) Decline in soil fertilityTotal

----

107.5----

3.61.20.5--

112.8

----

150.0----

7.06.0----

163.0

90.050.0

140.0----

7.0--

3.0--

150.0

----

150.04.02.78.06.04.4--

175.1

------

141.24.02.79.48.54.9--

174.9

148.913.5

162.4----

10.111.6

--3.7

187.8

----

167.0----

11.013.0

92

200

Source: TERI (1998) from various non NRSA sources

Annual Cost of Environmental Degradation Annual Cost of Environmental Degradation in India 1994-1997 (Parikh & Parikh)in India 1994-1997 (Parikh & Parikh)

Resource Range (% of GDP)

Air 0.4

Forests 1.1 – 1.6

Soil 0.30 – 0.80

Water 1.70 – 2.1

Total 3.5 – 4.9

Target of SD of China in terms of three Target of SD of China in terms of three pillarspillars

China’s China’s developing developing phasephase

Economic Economic growthgrowth

Social Social developmentdevelopment

Environment Environment impactimpact

General General well-offwell-off

1978-20001978-2000 $800 per $800 per capitacapita

Human Human development development index 0.7index 0.7

Low resource Low resource consumption consumption and and Environmental Environmental ImpactImpact

EntireEntire

Well-offWell-off

2001-20202001-2020 $3000$3000

per capitaper capita

Human Human development development index 0.8index 0.8

high increase of high increase of Environmental Environmental ImpactImpact

General General modernizamoderniza-tion-tion

2021-20502021-2050 $10000$10000

Per capitaPer capita

Human Human development development index 0.9index 0.9

Negative Negative increase of increase of Environmental Environmental ImpactImpactSource: Zhu Dajian

A “circular economy” model for China?A “circular economy” model for China?

• traditional approachtraditional approach （（ high economic growth high economic growth and low environmental performanceand low environmental performance ））– The resource and environment in China are not The resource and environment in China are not

available to provide a growing population with higher available to provide a growing population with higher standards in a Western lifestyle of consumption. standards in a Western lifestyle of consumption.

• alternative approach alternative approach ( high economic growth and ( high economic growth and high environmental performance high environmental performance ））– The challenge for China is to create an alternative to The challenge for China is to create an alternative to

Western development modes which would meet the Western development modes which would meet the needs for development while maintaining and even needs for development while maintaining and even improving the health of ecosystem.improving the health of ecosystem.

South Africa’s “big 5”South Africa’s “big 5”

•Disease (HIV/Aids, cholera, TB, malaria)

•Poverty & food insecurity (vulnerability)

•Energy, & water security

•Loss of self-esteem (dependency)

•Environmental degradation

1.4%!

Turpie et al. 2004

Estimated impact(R millions per year)

Forest&savana biomes Commercial harvests -4Subsistence use of resources -1 924 to -2 616

Fynbos Commercial harvests – wildflowers, thatch, etc

Down to -28

Estuaries Estuarine recreational and subsistence fisheries

Down to -151

Marine Inshore commercial, recreational and subsistence fisheries

-441

All rangelands Livestock production +292 to +1 344Cattle herd value -164

All habitats and biodiversity

Existence value to South Africans -2 630

All habitats and biodiversity

Tourism value -4 000 to –26 000

Croplands Various grains -270 to -1 880Plantation forests Plantation forests -362 to -724Infrastructure Property damage > -100Human health Malaria -12 077 to -18 766TOTAL -20 630 to -52 484% GDP 2.4% to 6.0%

Source Activity/Type of value

Climate change’s impact on SA economyClimate change’s impact on SA economy

A program for Ecological A program for Ecological Economics in emerging Economics in emerging countriescountries• To what extent will consumption patterns To what extent will consumption patterns

respond to resource scarcity? respond to resource scarcity? • If consumption is exosomatic, can institutions If consumption is exosomatic, can institutions

alter cultural pressures to consume?alter cultural pressures to consume?• Can institutional innovation or consumption Can institutional innovation or consumption

patterns be induced by shifts in relative patterns be induced by shifts in relative prices? prices?

• Are institutions for sustainability in place but Are institutions for sustainability in place but unrecognized (cooperation, collective unrecognized (cooperation, collective property and action…)?property and action…)?

• What are the policy choices and technology What are the policy choices and technology transfer options inherent in the EKC “tunnel”?transfer options inherent in the EKC “tunnel”?

Innovations toward sustainable Innovations toward sustainable development in the BRICSdevelopment in the BRICS

• ““Transversal” planning (Brazil, S. Africa)Transversal” planning (Brazil, S. Africa)

• Public-private partnerships (everyone?)Public-private partnerships (everyone?)

• Decentralized rural industrialization (China, Decentralized rural industrialization (China, India)India)

• Socio-environmental certification of agricultural Socio-environmental certification of agricultural and bioenergy production (Brazil)and bioenergy production (Brazil)

• Co-managing critical natural capital (Indian Co-managing critical natural capital (Indian forests, S. African brushland, Brazilian fisheries)forests, S. African brushland, Brazilian fisheries)

• Negative deforestation rates (all except Brazil…Negative deforestation rates (all except Brazil…but REDD may turn this around?)but REDD may turn this around?)

• Tracking progress toward sustainabilityTracking progress toward sustainability

But most innovations require But most innovations require global cooperationglobal cooperation

• Global competition and market restrictionsGlobal competition and market restrictions– Policy failures in trade negotiationsPolicy failures in trade negotiations

• Natural resource control as scarcities growNatural resource control as scarcities grow– Transition from hydrocarbons to bioenergyTransition from hydrocarbons to bioenergy– Water supply securityWater supply security– Endogenous knowledge and germplasm Endogenous knowledge and germplasm

patrimonypatrimony

• Climate mitigation and adaptation Climate mitigation and adaptation – Technology transfer of free information goodsTechnology transfer of free information goods

• South-South cooperation opportunitiesSouth-South cooperation opportunities

Thanks for your attention!Thanks for your attention!

Peter May – Peter May – president@ecoeco.orgpresident@ecoeco.org

ISEE – ISEE – http://www.ecoeco.orghttp://www.ecoeco.org

Help us plan ISEE2008 in Nairobi!Help us plan ISEE2008 in Nairobi!

www.ecoeco.org/conference08www.ecoeco.org/conference08