Context Context State DemographicsState Demographics

November 3, 2008November 3, 2008SBCTC Policy Research TeamSBCTC Policy Research Team

22

OutlineOutline

Implications of population growth to Implications of population growth to 20282028

Education status for Washington Education status for Washington adults – implications for CTC futureadults – implications for CTC future

Identify gaps – groups/locations with Identify gaps – groups/locations with greater need for education and greater need for education and groups/locations participating less groups/locations participating less than othersthan others

Importance of Population Growth Importance of Population Growth Trends on CTC FutureTrends on CTC Future

Historically enrollments trend up Historically enrollments trend up and down with growth or decline and down with growth or decline for key age groups for key age groups Economically driven enrollment changes Economically driven enrollment changes

do not alter this longer term historical do not alter this longer term historical patternpattern

Historically participation by age key Historically participation by age key age group has increased over time - age group has increased over time - resulting in enrollment growth in resulting in enrollment growth in excess of the population growth excess of the population growth

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Current and Future CTC FTE Current and Future CTC FTE Enrollment to Keep Pace with Enrollment to Keep Pace with

Population Growth Population Growth

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Education Status in WashingtonEducation Status in Washington

Educational attainment Educational attainment A well educated state, but …A well educated state, but … Those born in Washington:Those born in Washington:

More high school only & some collegeMore high school only & some college Less associate degree or higherLess associate degree or higher Less no high school diplomaLess no high school diploma

Compared to other countries Compared to other countries Washington lags in education for Washington lags in education for younger peopleyounger people

55

Washington State Has More Well Washington State Has More Well Educated Adults than the US Average Educated Adults than the US Average - - % at Each % at Each Educational Attainment Level -Age 25-64, 2005Educational Attainment Level -Age 25-64, 2005

slide slide 66

13

29

20

38

10

24 24

42

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Less than High School High School Some College Associate Degree or Higher

% o

f peo

ple

ag

e 25

-64

U.S. Washington

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

Washington Adults Are More Likely to Washington Adults Are More Likely to have an Associate Degree or Higher have an Associate Degree or Higher

Than Adults Elsewhere in the US – age Than Adults Elsewhere in the US – age 25-65, 200625-65, 2006

slide 7slide 7

42

37

25

49

0

10

20

30

40

50

Massa

chu

setts

Con

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Colora

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Haw

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New

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North D

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ash

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Island

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Illinois

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Dakota

Califo

rniaIo

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Ore

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Wisco

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tates

Maine

Delaw

areP

ennsylva

niaF

lorida

North C

aro

lina

Michig

an

Geo

rgia

Ala

skaA

rizona

New

Me

xicoId

aho

Wyo

min

gM

issouri

Ohio

Sou

th C

arolina

Texas

Indian

aO

klahom

aA

laba

ma

Ten

nessee

Ken

tucky

Nevad

aM

ississippi

Lou

isiana

Arkan

sas

We

st Virginia

% o

f ad

ult

popu

lation

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS

Adults in Washington Come Primarily Adults in Washington Come Primarily from Elsewhere - 2007 from Elsewhere - 2007

Education Education levels are levels are different for different for adults born in adults born in Washington Washington

US average is US average is 16% other 16% other countries, half countries, half in state and in state and 1/3 other 1/3 other statesstates

88Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 ACS

The 36% of Adults Born in Washington The 36% of Adults Born in Washington Are Less Likely to have an Associate Are Less Likely to have an Associate Degree or Higher Degree or Higher - - Population Age 25 -64, 2007Population Age 25 -64, 2007

slide slide 99

% of Adults by Where They Were Born & Educational Attainment - ages 25-64

12

23 23

42

8

3027

35

Less than High School High School Only Some College Associate Degree or Higher

Born ElsewhereBorn in Washington

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 ACS

Many Countries Beat Washington’s Many Countries Beat Washington’s Rate of Younger Working Age Adults Rate of Younger Working Age Adults

with Associate Degree or Higher with Associate Degree or Higher Age 25-34 – 2006 Age 25-34 – 2006

slide slide 1010

55 54

42 42 42 41 40

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Canada Japan Ireland Belgium Norway France Washington

% o

f ad

ult

popu

latio

n

Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008

Focus Today on the 2.6 Million Adults Focus Today on the 2.6 Million Adults with Less than Associate Degreewith Less than Associate Degree

1111

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-64

Adul

ts

Age Group

Washington Population by Age and Educational Attainment - 2007

Associate Degree or Higher

Some College

High School Only

Less than HS

Pipeline

Examine CTC role for those with associate degree or higher in January

Region )Region ) Age )Age ) Male/female )Male/female )

Race/EthnicRace/Ethnic

English English language language ability (ESL)ability (ESL)

SES & family SES & family income income

1212

Key Subsets of State PopulationKey Subsets of State Population

Income is most closely related to college going and attainment

OFM forecast to 2030

Census forecast to 2030

Younger Adults Go to College at Higher Younger Adults Go to College at Higher Rate Attending Any Sectors of Rate Attending Any Sectors of

Education – Education – Washington 2006Washington 2006

1313Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 ACS

1414

Differences in College Going or Differences in College Going or Attainment for Younger Population – Attainment for Younger Population –

Under 25Under 25 Younger students go to college at higher rates, but these Younger students go to college at higher rates, but these

younger adults attained younger adults attained less education less education or attend at or attend at lower rateslower rates:: From lower income families From lower income families MenMen With no high school diplomaWith no high school diploma With need for ESL – speak other language at home and speak With need for ESL – speak other language at home and speak

English less than very wellEnglish less than very well

Family Income & College GoingFamily Income & College Going% of Younger Adults (20-24) in School % of Younger Adults (20-24) in School

or College- or College- Washington 2006 Washington 2006

1515Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS

Distribution of State Population Age Distribution of State Population Age 18-24 by Socio-Economic Status (SES) 18-24 by Socio-Economic Status (SES)

(2000)(2000)

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Lower SES Young People Are Less Lower SES Young People Are Less Represented Among CTC Students Represented Among CTC Students

Than in Population Than in Population Fall 2007 CTC 18-24 Fall 2007 CTC 18-24 Age GroupAge Group

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Low % expected due to many in this group attending universities

Young Men (18-24) Participate in Young Men (18-24) Participate in College at Lower Rate than Women College at Lower Rate than Women – –

Washington 2007Washington 2007

1818Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 ACS

CTC pattern is similar – higher participation for women

English Language AbilityEnglish Language Ability

1 million people in 1 million people in Washington speak a Washington speak a language other than language other than English at homeEnglish at home

56% of that group speak 56% of that group speak English very well – but English very well – but 44% need ESL to 44% need ESL to improve Englishimprove English

The 44% that speaks The 44% that speaks English English less than very less than very wellwell has grown by has grown by 115,000 people since 115,000 people since 2000 (33% growth)2000 (33% growth)

English Ability of the 1,012,000 English Ability of the 1,012,000 in Washington Who Speak in Washington Who Speak

Other Than English at Home Other Than English at Home - - 20072007

1919Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 ACS

ESL/ABE Populations Participate at Low ESL/ABE Populations Participate at Low RatesRates

2020Source: WABERS &U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 ACS

2121

For All Adults -25-64 For All Adults -25-64 LowerLower College Going or Attainment College Going or Attainment

Adults in rural SW and Central Washington – low Adults in rural SW and Central Washington – low education attainmenteducation attainment

Students from Central Washington – low college goingStudents from Central Washington – low college going Hispanic and Native Americans - low education Hispanic and Native Americans - low education

attainmentattainment Students go to college at parity with population or Students go to college at parity with population or

better – but parity may be too low for some groupsbetter – but parity may be too low for some groups

REGIONSREGIONSRural SW & Central Washington Adults Rural SW & Central Washington Adults are Half as Likely to Have a Degree As are Half as Likely to Have a Degree As

Others Others % of Population Age 25-64 with an % of Population Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2006Associate Degree or Higher, 2006

slide slide 2222

Washington = 42.3%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS

49.1 to 77.040.3 to 49.133.9 to 40.317.1 to 33.9

REGIONSREGIONSAdults in Those Same Regions are 3 Times Adults in Those Same Regions are 3 Times as Likely to Have No High School Diploma as Likely to Have No High School Diploma --

% Population Age 25-64 with no HS Diploma, 2006% Population Age 25-64 with no HS Diploma, 2006

slide slide 2323Washington = 9.7%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS

1.6 to 5.25.2 to 8.68.6 to 11.7

11.7 to 38.7

CTC Service Levels By CTC Service Levels By CountyCounty

2424

Service Levels: State FTE/adult population – Fall 2006

Source: OFM, 2007

Low CTC Service in Central Low CTC Service in Central WashingtonWashington

2525

Service Levels: State FTE/adult population – Fall 2006

Source: OFM, 2007

Hispanic & Native Americans in Hispanic & Native Americans in Washington Less Well EducatedWashington Less Well Educated -% -%

Educational Attainment of Population Age 25-64 -Educational Attainment of Population Age 25-64 -20052005

slide slide 2626

6

24

44

13

1715

55

13

24

29

34

19

33

27

21

42

24

1618

26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Less than High School High School Only Some College Associate or Higher

% f

or e

ach

race

/eth

nic

grou

p

White Asian/Pacific Islander African American Native American Hispanic

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

This difference is greater in WA than many states

High % Native Americans, Hispanics High % Native Americans, Hispanics and African Americans with Less Than and African Americans with Less Than Associate Degree Associate Degree – – Washington, Age 25 to 64 2005Washington, Age 25 to 64 2005

slide slide 2727

% of Washington Adults with Less than Associate Degree

56%

45%

79%82%

66%

White Asian/Pacific Islander African American Native American Hispanic

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

CTC Participation Rates For Students of CTC Participation Rates For Students of Color compared to Population Color compared to Population – Fall – Fall

2007 2007

2828

% of student population versus % in adult population Compare to rate in

population

Hispanics in ABE/ESL 3 times rate in population

African & Asian Americans in ABE/ESL

2 times rate in population

African & Asian Americans in college classes

1.5 times rate in population

Native American in ABE/ESL Same as rate in population – may be too low given educational level

Hispanic & Native Americans in college classes

Same as rate in population – may be too low given education level

No group of color below rate in population

Source: Fall Enrollment and Staffing Report, 2007

Summary:Summary: Education Gaps for Washington Adults Education Gaps for Washington Adults State lags other nationsState lags other nations People born here have lower educational People born here have lower educational

attainment attainment Lower income young people, men and ABE/ESL Lower income young people, men and ABE/ESL

population go to college at lower ratespopulation go to college at lower rates Hispanics & Native Americans in college level Hispanics & Native Americans in college level

instruction at parity, that may be too lowinstruction at parity, that may be too low Rural SW and Central Washington have low Rural SW and Central Washington have low

education attainment and Central Washington education attainment and Central Washington people go to college at lower rates people go to college at lower rates

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To Address Gaps Will Impact Future CTC To Address Gaps Will Impact Future CTC FTEFTE

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2019 Forecast for HECB Plan Assumes: Colleges will maintain current role in % of all bachelors degrees, close the skills gap - that is, meet employers need for middle level jobs, applied baccalaureate degrees will grow Requires : Outreach to populations now underserved & increased student retention – Student Achievement initiative

Can forecast impact of filling gaps to 2028

Summary – Next StepsSummary – Next Steps

Population growth alone may require Population growth alone may require 22,000 more FTE22,000 more FTE

Can forecast FTE needed to fill or Can forecast FTE needed to fill or partially fill gaps - implications for partially fill gaps - implications for mission areasmission areas

Staff will prepare report for next meeting Staff will prepare report for next meeting with FTE forecast with FTE forecast

Next time – role of eLearning, CTC role Next time – role of eLearning, CTC role for those with associate degree or higherfor those with associate degree or higher

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