EnergyEnergy

EU ENERGY POLICY Context and ChallengesFor Nuclear Energy

MARC DEFFRENNES

DG ENER – UNIT D2

EnergyEnergy

EU energy challenges1. Sustainability (GHG, safety, waste,…)

2. Security of energy supply (ia stability and reliability of elect)

3. Competitiveness (Affordability)

To tackle these challenges, EU needs:• proper mix of a wide range of low carbon energy

sources + large investments• ambitious energy efficiency measures

NOTE: Nuclear provides today around 30% base-load electricity (contributing to reliability and stability of supply)

EnergyEnergy

Energy policy for Europe• Integrated energy and climate policy

Objective: 80 to 95 % GHG reduction in 2050

• Year 2020 targets (2007): 3x20% AND SET Plan – 80 Billion Euros over 10 y – incl Nuclear Fission

• 2nd Strategic Energy Review (2008)CO2 free electricity in 2050

• Energy Strategy 2020 (2010): 5 priorities (EE, Market Operation and Infrastructures, Innovation SET Plan, Safety and Security, International Cooperation)

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Energy Strategy 2020 and MFF: nuclear• Continuously improve safety and security

Safeguards and Decomm Funds: 700 MEuros for MFF

• Keep EU leadership in safe nuclear energyH2020 EC Proposal: Euratom IA 350M + DA 720M + FU 700M + ITER 2,7 B + Structural Funds + Euratom Loans ? H2020 EC Proposal: TEU Energy nearly 6B Euros (+ EERP and NER300 to be spent over same period) + other tools (structural funds, RSFF,…)

• Contribute to its responsible use worldwide by promoting legally binding standards (INSCDevco 600M)

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Energy Roadmap 2050

• Adopted by the Commission in December 2011; Council conclusions in May 2012

• An exploration of possible futuresfor the EU energy system: 7 scenarios

• Diverse Long-term perspectives for nuclear• Discussion with Member States and

stakeholders• A basis for policy action = regulatory

framework and financing/investment policy

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6

Basis of scenarios 80% domestic GHG reduction in 2050

Efficient pathway:-25% in 2020-40% in 2030-60% in 2040

Context: Low-Carbon Economy Roadmap (Mar 2011)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Current policyPower Sector

Residential & Tertiary

Non CO2 Other Sectors

Industry

Transport

Non CO2 Agriculture

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Energy Roadmap 2050 - scenarios

1 Business as usual (Common Reference Scenario)

1bis Current Policy Initiatives scenario

2 High Energy Efficiency

3 Diversified supply technologies

4 High Renewables

5 Delayed CCS

6 Low Nuclear

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EU-27 resultsReference scenario: GDP, energy consumption and CO2 emissions 40 years back and ahead (1990 = 100)

0

50

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GDP

Gross energyconsumption

CO2emissions

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ResultsCurrent Policy initiatives scenario: Primary energy demand, savings from REF and carbon intensity

0

200

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1.000

1.200

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2.000

1990 2010 2030 20500

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100savingsfrom REF

RES

nuclear

gas

solids

oil

carb. int.(REF)

Mtoe Carbon intensity

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Results Gross energy consumption: range in current trends and decarbonisation scenarios (in Mtoe)

1000

1100

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1300

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

REF/CPI: effects of additional policies and updated assumptions

Decarbonisation cases: effects from different policy focus / technology availability

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ResultsShare of electricity in final energy demand under current trends and with decarbonisation (in %)

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Range for current trends scenarios:

Range regarding decarbonisation scenarios

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ResultsImport dependency under current trends and decarbonisation in (%)

30

35

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45

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55

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CPI

low Nuclear

Energy Efficiency

Div. Supply Techn.

delayed CCS

RES

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ResultsRatio of energy system costs* to GDP under current trends and decarbonisation (average over 2011-2050)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Reference CPI EnergyEfficiency

Div. SupplyTechn.

RES delayedCCS

low Nuclear

* Without auction payments and estimates for disutility

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Decarbonisation of the energy system: Some conclusions• Decarbonisation under global climate action is feasible; several pathways are possible

and costs do not differ substantially from current trends

• Reduction of energy consumption through energy efficiency improvements

• All decarbonisation options can contribute: EE, RES, nuclear, CCS

• But Renewables increases in all cases: - at least 55% of gross final energy consumption- at least 60% of electricity generation

Electricity will play a greater role in energy supplies (20% of final energy demand today, almost 40% by 2050) also in areas such as transport and heating = 4800 TWh per year in 2050

• Power generation almost carbon free by 2050

• Electricity prices increase up to 2030 and slightly decline afterwards (besides the High RES scenario where electricity is 25% more expensive)

• Transition from high fuel / operational expenditure to high capital expenditure

• Reduced import dependency and external fuel bill

• Massive investments in generation capacity and grids to ensure stable and reliable energy supply

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Nuclear in Energy Roadmap 2050

• Reference scenario (pre-Fukushima) - shares of nuclear• 14.3% in 2030 and 16.7% in 2050 in primary energy (around 14% today)• 26.4 % in 2050 in power generation (around 28% today)

• Current Policy Initiatives scenario (post-Fukushima scenario) – change in assumptions

• 12.1% in 2030 and 13.5% in 2050 in primary energy• 20.5% in 2030 and 2050 in power generation

• Share of nuclear in decarbonisation scenarios vary depending on assumptions taken = from 2 to 18% in primary energy – 3 to 19 % in electricity (note: RES between 55% and 75% in final energy – which correspond to 60% to 90% in electricity) – of 4800 TWh

• A Low nuclear scenario and a Delayed CCS scenarios are showing the extreme results for nuclear (no high nuclear scenario was modelled)(EU 27 results mask important differences at MS level)

• Both scenarios with high nuclear share (Delayed CCS and Diversified supply technologies scenarios) show lowest costs; lower electricity prices so diversified supply can keep costs and prices downHigh renewables is 25% more expensive in price of electricity

EnergyEnergy

For info - EURELECTRIC Study 20502010 « PowerChoices » Scenario

Target: EU 75% GHG reduction in 2050 vs 1990 to respect IPPC 4th Assessment: 440 ppm CO2 eq and 2 deg C 50% GHG reduction worldwide and 60 to 80% OECD

Means carbon-free electricity in 2050 in EU = 2nd SER

Lot of energy efficiency and savings – primary energy needs decrease from 1800 Mtoe (2005) to 1400 Mtoe (2050)

Electricity demand increases from 3100 to 4800 TWh

Mainly RES – from 15% to 40 % – mainly wind 2x15 % by Coal and GasNuclear from 950 TWh to 1300 TWh (31 to 28%)

Overall cost of PowerChoices: Investment needed: 2 trillion Euros for 2050 (of 2005)…EC estimation Power Infrastructures 2020 1 trillion Euros= 600B plants + 400B grid – of which 200B priority interconnections (10B from MFF Infrastructures Interconnecting Europe

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Perspectives for nuclear in EU…

Further development is contingent on:• high level of nuclear safety & security - at large

(technology, waste mgnt, emerg mgnt, liability,…)• public acceptance + MS position on nuclear• climate targets maintained + how well are "others" doing• positive investment climate• research and innovation critical – leadership/knowledge• international cooperation and opportunities

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Working together at EU level

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A Nuclear Scenario from Now-2050…- EU Roadmap 2050 – up to 20% Nuclear Electricity- 4800 TWh per year – 140 Gwe (for 7000 hr per year) =

100 Units of 1400 MWe avg- Today 28% Nuclear Electricity = 125 Gwe – 135 Units- Closing DE+BE+UK AGRs = rest 100 Units – LTO- Average age of NPPS today in EU = 30 years- Vision: LTO between 2015 and 2035

New Built between 2025 and 2045 - Investment ? 900 Meuros per Unit for LTO to 60 y

5 Beuros for new Built (EPR) – 7 Years- Jobs ? Base 900 000 + 50 000 LTO + 250 000 New Built- Value added: 70 BEuros/y + 5 Beuros/y + 25 Beuros/y

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Stress tests: Commission mandate

15 March 2011: High Level Conference

24-25 March 2011: European Council:• comprehensive and transparent risk and safety

assessments

• similar stress tests should be carried out in the neighbouring countries and worldwide

• revision of the safety legal and regulatory framework

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Stress tests: features

They go beyond safety evaluations during the licensing process and periodic reviews

The aim: assess whether safety margins are sufficient to cover various unexpected events

Conducted on a voluntary basis in three-steps:• licensees (nuclear operators)

• independent national authorities (regulators)

• peer reviews

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Stress tests: state of play

• All assessments started before 1 June 2011• In August, operators carried out

self-assessments• In September, regulators compiled

national progress reports and submitted them to the Commission

• The Commission prepared an interim reportand presented it to the European Councilin December

EnergyEnergy

Stress tests: state of play

• By end December 2011, regulators prepared final national reports

• Reports provided by:all Member States operating NPPs + LithuaniaSwitzerland and Ukraine

• Peer reviews of final national reports are ongoing and will end in April 2012

• The Commission report will be presentedto the European Council in June 2012

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Peer reviews: features

They guarantee credibility and accountabilityPeer review teams:• experts from Member States and from

the European CommissionBoard supervising the process:• national regulators, non nuclear countries,

Commission; chaired by P. Jamet (ASN, FR)Deliverables:• Topical Summary Reports• Country Reports• Peer Review Summary Report

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Peer reviews: timetable

• Stakeholders Meeting Jan + May 2012

• Horizontal/topical reviews:January-February 2012

• Vertical/country reviews:March-April 2012

• ENSREG “wrap up” meeting:25 April 2012

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Stress tests: security aspects

Security threats are an important part ofstress tests

They are assessed in a separate process:• ad hoc Council working group to address this issue

• the Group reports attached to Commission reports

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Revision of the EU safety framework

Presentation results ST to Council June 2012

3rd quarter 2012: Commission legislative proposals

Main areas for legislative improvements:• technical safety requirements

• nuclear safety governance

• emergency preparedness and response