contents page preface i foreword minister of plantation industries and commodities malaysia viii ......

CONTENTS Page

Preface I

Foreword Minister of Plantation Industries and Commodities Malaysia viii Director General of the Malaysian Cocoa Board IX

Conference Chairman x

Conference Committee xi

Conference Programme xii

Keynote Lecture : Commodities in a Global Vision For Agriculture Towards 2100 2

Robert Habib, Dominique Nicolas, Jean-Charles Jacquemard, Hubert Omont, ClRAD

Plenary Paper

COCOA Everyone is Loco for Malaysian Cocoa: Malaysian Cocoa Board 1 OO-Year 22 Vision

Dato Azhar Ismail, Rosmin Kasrdn and Douglas Furtek, Malaysian Cocoa Board

33 )4

'I'IMBER The Development of the Timber lndustry and its Future Direction Y.Bhg Dato' Mohd Nazuri Hashim Shah, Director General , MTlB

/

011 PALM Palm Oil: Nature's Gift to Malaysia and Malaysia's Gift to the World 35 Dato' Dr Mohd Basri Wahid and Dr Chan Kook Weng, Malaysian Palm Oil Board

PEPPER Pepper - The Way Forward Mr. Grunsin Ayom, Malaysian Pepper Board

RllBBER Biotechnology in Ru bber Research and Development 39 Siti Arija Mad Arif and Zairossani Mohd Nor, Malaysian ~ubber Board

Oral Presentation

OP01 Potential use of rriicrobes as biological control against the cocoa pod borer, 41 conopomorpha cramerella,

Mass Production of Jrichogrammatoidea Cojuangcoi for Cocoa Pod Borer 42 Management

Meriam M.Y and A. Alias, Malaysian Cocoa Board

Handling of Cocoa Black Ants as a Biological Control Agent Against Cocoa 48 @, b

Pod Borer in Monococoa Ecosystem g % Saripah, B. and 1. Azhar, Malaysian Cocoa Board 2

k OP04 Correlation of cocoa flavour with the concentration of vicilin (7s)-class 55 globulin

Khairul Bariah S., Malaysian Cocoa Board

v @ OP05 ACACIA Hybrid: An Alternative species for Future Industrial Plantation k

59 Ahmad Zuhaidi Yahya, Hashim Md. Noor, Rosdi Koter, Forest Research

IF lnstitute Malaysia T AlagendranQAlan, Golden Hope Plantation

OP06 The Importance of Stand Density Control in Small Scale Forest Plantation 67 Management in Malaysia

Hashim Md Noor 8 Ahmad Zuhaidi Yahya ,Forest Research lnstitute Malaysia

OP07 R 8 D Inputs in Addressing Issues Related to Shortage of Timber Supply Within 72 the Country

Shamsuddin Ibrahim and Salleh Mat, Forest Research lnstitute Malaysia

OP08 Oil Palm: GM Drives Value 73 Kushairi, A and Parveez, G. K. A, Malaysian Palm Oil Board

OP09 From Oil Palm to Oil Pharm: Adding Glitter to the Golden Crop Ravigadevi Sambanthamurthi, Malaysian Palm Oil Board

OP01 0 Transgenic Oil Palm Synthesizing biodegrada ble plastics '7 93 Parveez, GKA, Masani, AMY, Ravigadevi Sambanthamurthi and Kushairi, A. Malaysian Palm Oil Board

OP1 1 Oil Pa- Hypermarket of the Future 1 03 Mohd Din, A., Ooi, S. E., Ong-Abdullah, M and Kushairi, A., Malaysian Palm Oil Board

OP12 Designer Oils for Health and Functional Uses 1 1 1 Siew Wai Lin and Mohd Basri Wahid, Malaysian Palm Oil Board

i i i

OP13 Bioenergy - Fuel of the Future Rusnani Abd Majid, Malaysian Palm Oil Board

OP1 4 Beyond Biomas Astimar Abdul Aziz, Mohd Basri Wahid and Lim Weng Soon, Malaysian Palm'Oil Board

OP1 5 Responsible Governance of Bioenergy: European Perspectives on the Case of Palm Oil.

Katrin Bienge and Dipl., M.SC. Justus von Geibler - Wuppertal Institute, Germa ny

OP16 Safety and Health Performance of Edible Oil Factory Workers in Bintulu Seca Gandaseca and Voon Chun Wei, U niversiti Putra Malaysia

OP 1 7 Developmen t of Superior Genotypes and Cuit ural Practices for lmproving Productivity of Pepper in Sarawak, Malaysia: Progress, Achievements and Research Needs

Paulus A. D., Department of Agriculture, Sarawak

OP18 Varietal lmprovement of Pepper (Piper nigrm L.)in Malaysia S.L.Sim ,Universiti Malaysia Sarawak

OP19 Contributions of R & D on diseuses and pests to the development of the pepper industry in Sarawak, Malaysia

Lily Eng and Megir Gumbek, Department of Agriculture,Sarawak

OP20 ldentifiication of Leaf fall Diseases Affecting Hevea Brasiliensis Using a Ha nd held Spectroradiometer

Hj. Kamaruzaman Jusoff,Universiti Putra Malaysia

Hj. Malek Mohd Yusoff, Universiti Teknologi MARA

OP21 Development of Genomic Resources in the RRlM Chow Keng See, Rubber Research lnstitute of Malaysia

OP22 A Moleculor and In Silico Characterisotion by H ~ V b4, a Glycosylated Latex Allergen

Sunderasan Elumalai, Malaysian Rubber Board

OP23 Disease Screening of Family PB 5/51 x IAN 873 with Race 1 and Race 2 of Corynespora cassiicola

Safiah Atan, Malaysian Rubber Board

OP24 Managing the Ecosystem Engineers in Industrial and Commodities Agroecosystems

Faszly R., Sajap, A. S. , Idris A. B. and Norman K. ,Universiti Putra Malaysia

OP25 Converging new engineering and biological auspicies towards sustainable 208 agr-icult ure: Issues of diversification, specialization and integration.

Ma hmad Nor Bin Jaafar, Universiti Malaysia Perlis

Poster Presentation

Methodology of Estimating the Wet Weight Loss on Selected Cocoa Clone 214 Albert Ling Sheng Chang, Malaysian Cocoa Board

lmplementation Of Cocoa Pod Sleeving In Controlling Cocoa Pod Borer 22 1 Infestation

Saripah, B., 1. Azhar, Roslan, S. and Abdul Shukor, M, Malaysian Cocoa Board

Performance Of Cocoa Progeny And Clonal Trial Of The International Cocoa 228 Project

Francis, L.Kelvin, M.J.Ahmad Kamil, S.Shari Fuddin and L.Albert., Malaysian Cocoa Board

Screening for Cocoa Pod Borer Resistance Based Morphological Descriptors 229

Haya Ramba, Navies Maisin, Kelvin Lamin, Albert Ling, Alias Awang and Nuraziawati Mat Yazik, Malaysian Cocoa Board

Management Of Cocoa Pod Borer Using Sex Pheromone - An Up Date 239 Navies Maisin, Malaysian Cocoa Board

Efficacy of lime application in cocoa seedlings growth in the nursery 243 Rozita Osman, Nik Aziz Nik Mat and Kelvin Lamin., Malaysian Cocoa Board

Stem Injection With Selected Systemic Chemicals To Control Vascular 244 Disease of Cocoa

Azmi Che Ahmad and Osman Yusof, Malaysian Cocoa Board

Anti-inflammatory and Anti-cancer civ vit^ q f Theobroma cacao 249 Zainal B., Mohd Razip A.,Nurul Huda M., & Mohd Shahrin S., Malaysian Cocoa Board and University of Malaysia Sarawak

A Proteomic Approach For ldentifying Cocoa Pod Borer (Conopomorpha 253 cramerella) Resistant Genesin Cocoa (Theobroma cacao) Pods

Aman Awang, Rafia h Hj. Karim, and Douglas Furtek, Malaysian Cocoa Board

Analysis Of Volatile Compounds Of Cocoa Pulp By Headspace Solid-Phase 254 Microextraction

Suzannah Sharif and Aznie Aida Ahmad,Malaysian Cocoa Board

P 1 1 A translational genomics approach to pod specific promoter isolation in 260 Theobroma cacao

Tan Chia Lock, Malaysian Cocoa Board

P l 2 Cloning Of Mads Regulatory Gene From Jheobroma cacao Seeds 26 1 Roslina M.S , Rosmin K and D.B. Furtek, Malaysian Cocoa Board

P l 3 Antifungal Activity Of Bacillus Subtilis LKM 2 Endophyte Against,Cocoa 266 Pathogenic Fungi

lshak Zubir, Russman Nizam Abd. Haris, Anika Flora Bulangau, Douglas Bruce Furtek, Emie Eileen Rizlan Ross and Mohd Khan Ayob, Malaysia Cocoa Board, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia

P 14 Healthy chocolate 270 Rosmawati M.S., Sharida F., Amin I., Fauziah O., Hairuszah 1. and Si i i Aviena 1. Malaysia Cocoa Board and Universiti Putra Malaysia

P 15 C hocolate for energy Wan Aida h W.1, Malaysian Cocoa Board

P l 6 Acceptability of Cocoa Tannin Gel Toothpaste Azïla A.K. and Nur Azilah A.Malaysian Cocoa Board

l

P l 7 Critical Success Factor for Development of Cocoa Farmen Clusters in 277 Malaysia

Ramle Kasin, Malaysian Cocoa Board

Pl8 Palm-based Octyl Dihydroxystearate for Cosmetic Products 284 Chua, S. K., Salmiah, A., Hazimah, A. H., Roila, A., Salleh, A. B., Ariff, A. & Rigano, L, Malaysian Palm Oil Board and Universiti Putra Malaysia

P l 9 Development of Simple Sequence of Simple Sequence Repeat Markers for 287 Oil Palm And Their Application In Genetic Mapping And Fingerprinting Of Tissue Culture Clones

Rajinder Singh; Jayanthi Nagappan, Ra himah Abdul Ra hman,Soon- Guan, Tan Jothi Malar Panandam &Suan-Choo, Cheah, Malaysian Palm Oil Board and Universiti Putra Malaysia

PX) Two Dimensional Electrophoresis Application for Ganoderma study in Oil 294 Palm

Syahanim Shahwan, Malaysian Palm Oil Board

P21 Reg ulation of Oil Palm (Elaeis guineensis) ~eaianthin epoxidase in 301 Developing Mesocarp Tissues Determined by Real-Time PCR

O A Rasid, A Nor Hanin, S S Masura, Malaysian Palm Oil Board C L Ho, N Suhaimi and R Sambanthamurthi. Univeniti Putra Malaysia

AFLP fragments linked to fruit skin colour in the oil palm (Elaeis guineensis 309 Jacq.)

Sena Tzer Ying 1, Faridah Qamaruz Zaman 1.2, Ho Chai Ling3, Maizura Ithnin4, Vengeta Rao 5

lnstitute of Bioscience, University Putra Malaysia Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, University Putra Malaysia

3 Faculty of Biotechnology and Biomolecular Sciences, Universi.1.i Putra Malaysia 4 Malaysian Palm Oil Board

BOH Plantations Sdn. Bhd.

Analysis of the OIL PALM PALMITOYL-ACYL CARRIER PROTEIN THIOESTERASE 31 4 GEIVE expression in the transgenic Arabidopsis thaliana plants

Nurhafizah, R., Abrizah, O., Mohamad Arif, A.M., and Zaini, A, Malaysian Palm Oil Board

Gene Expression Studies in Oil Palm Tissue Culture: An approach towards 32 1 biomarker discovery

Ooi, S.E. and Ong-Abdullah, M., Malaysian Palm Oil Board

Managing The Ganoderma Basal Stem Rot in Oil Palm Plantqtion Through 322 Sanitation and Fungicidal Treat ment

Idris A.S, Malaysian Palm Oil Board

Biotransformation Of Palm Oil lnto Sophorolipid Biosurfactant Abdul Rashid Yatim, Malaysian Palm Oil Board

Optimization of roasting process on cocoa flavour development using 336 response surface methodology

Saria h G., Nazaruddin R., Suzanna h S, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia and Malaysian Cocoa Board

Enzymatic synt hesis of structured lipid through interesterification of 344 Rambutan Stearin, Palm Mid Fraction, and Palm Olein Blends: Optimization by Response Surface Design (RSM)

Loh Y.F, Nazaruddin R, Nor Aini 1, Jumat S, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia and Malaysian Palm Oil Board

Physiochemical and Sensory Evaluation of Sugar-free Dark Chocolate with 350 Coconut Filling

Aw W.C1, Nazaruddin R.'', Nor Aini 12

IU riiversiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 2Malaysian Palm Oil Board

Transcriptional changes in response to mycorrhizal inoculation and 360 Ganoderma infection of oil palm root (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.)

Sue-Sean Tee, Chai-Ling Ho, Faridah Abdullah & Meilina Ong Abdullah, University Putra Malaysia and Malaysian Palm Oil Board

P31 The Abundance of Bagworm Species and its Mortality Factor at Oil Palm 36 1 Plantation in Hutan Melintang, Southern Perak

Y.L. Cheong, A.S. Sajap, M.N. Hafidzi and M.F. Chai, Universiti Putra Malaysia

P32 Tapioca Starch Based Biodegradable Film: A Preliminary Study 366 Roshafima Rasit Ali, Wan Aizan Wan Abdul Rahman, Universiti Teknologi ~a laysia

P33 Conformation of activity of Oil Palm Stearoyl-acyl Carrier Protein (ACP) 367 Desaturase by Complementation Study in Arabidopsis thaliana

Safiza, M.', Abrizah, O.',, Mohamad Arif, A. M.], Khairul Anuar, R.' and Ma hadzir, Ma laysian Palm Oil Board Siti Nor Akmar, A, Universiti Putra Malaysia

viii

2007 CONFERENCE ON PLANTATION COMMODITIES "Visionary Agriculture: Malaysian Commodity Crops in 100 years"

COMIIODITI ES IN A GLOBAL VISION FOR AGRlCU LTURE TOWARDS 2 1 00

Robert Hablb, Domlnlque Nlcolas, Jean-Charles Jacquemard, Hubert Omont CIRAD, Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (French

Agricultural Research Centre for lnternational Development) TA B-DIR / 09, Avenue Agropolis, 34398 Montpellier Cedex 5, France

Corresponding author: [email protected]

Abstract - It is impossible to see a hundred years into the future. So, how a n we imagine what will become of commodity crops in Malaysia by 2 1 OO? Yet, worldwide, these commodity crops provide a living for hundreds of millions of people: how they evolve will have considerable economic, social and environmental consequenms for many countries. I t is therefore worth trying to steer that future rather than submitting to it. We adopted a three-stage approach to launch our deliberations on possible futures: an historical approach, an analysis of the current context, and hypotheses on possible developments. The historical approach draws lessons from a study of commodity crops up to the 20th century, taking the example of the Cotton and palm oil sectors. The analysis of the current context brings out variables that are important for understanding the current situation and whose evolution could play a decisive role in future changes. Lastly, we propose imagining the future from three angles: the first, a trend hypothesis, prolongs the current major trends, with progressive and constructed changes; the second, a disaster hypothesis, describes certain key variables that are subject to sudden and imposed disruptions, and which could have serious repercussions for commodity crops; the third hypothesis is a positive fiction scenario applied to the palm oil sector, with severe but controlled and constructed breaks with trends. The conclusion draws lessons and identifies the limitations of the exercise, and proposes avenues for further deliberation. In order to construct the desired changes and keep abreast of foreseeable developments, it is essential beforehand to carry out a fine analysis of the variables of the context, their interrelations, and mechanisms for monitoring what becomes of them. Such an analysis requires the active participation of stakeholders in the sectors and players in the global context, some of whom have already undertaken foresight exercises: initially, it would be worth bringing together their results with a view to a true international foresight study.

1 - INTRODUCTION

Predicting the future of commodity crops in Malaysia by the end of the 21a century is an eminently difficult task, since it is impossible to see 100 years into the future. Forecasters rarely venture into such distant time scales and even specialists in foresight exercises - whereby possible futures are imagined, backed up by solid hypotheses on the evolution of numerous key variables - usually consider the exercise to be impossible beyond 20 to 25 years. Our approach is therefore risky, since it lies outside the strict framework of scientific rigour, but if we have the wherewithal to start constructing those deliberations, it is worth examining their limitations and weaknesses, and proposing ways of enhancing them.

Considering the prospects for commodity crops by 21 00 first means asking

whether there will st i l l be any commodity crops by that date. I f the answer is yes, let us try to imagine what they will be: what uses and externalities will they have to face? To answer those questions, we adopted a three- stage approach: an historical approach, an analysis of the current context, and hypotheses on possible developments.

We have chosen to begin in the past. What does the history of commodity crops in the 2 0 ~ century tel l us? Could the current status of commodity sciences and economics in 2007 be foreseen in 1907? A brief look at .the history of co,tton and oil palm is the first step in Our study.

We then go on to analyse aspects of the current context because history shows that, whilst certain breaks with trends are totally unexpected, others are changes in

2007 CONFERENCE ON PLANTATION COMMODITIES 'Visionary Agriculture: Malaysian Commodity Crops in 100 years"

relation to a given context. To illustrate that, we have taken some variables that are felt to be important, bearing in mind that it is impossible to consider or study al1 the variables that might play a decisive role.

Lastly, based on prospective methods, though without claiming to be conducting a true foresight exercise, we propose to imagine the future from three different angles. The first is a trend hypothesis and consists in prolonging the current major trends, with' gradua1 or constructed developments. Through it, we attempt to imagine the position of commodity crops. Then, in the second hypothesis, we examine strong, sudden and imposed disruptions that mlght have disastrous consequences on a world scale and serious repercussions for commodity crops. Lastly, in the third hypothesis, we describe a positive fiction scenarlo, with strong but controlled and constructed breaks with trends, which we have applied to the palm oil supply chain.

Our conclusion focuses on the lessons that can be drawn from this analysis as a whole. We also discuss its limitations and also

- and In what form can we envisage a more

QRcWer to that question is important, as the

George Orwell wrote "He who controls the psst controls the future". It is in that spirit that

" two. An historical analysis of those contrasts

pa rs ahead for a commodity crop is

2.1- Eigfit thousand years of history for the cotton sector

Eighty countries grow cotton on 36 million hectares and produce 26 million tonnes of fibres, for an estimated value of 30 billion dollars. Textile use of cotton goes back to the earliest civilizations: cotton fibres 7,200 years old have been found in Mexico, and 8,000 years old in the Indus valley. The expansion of cotton has been closely linked to technological progress over the centuries, and the current global cotton map has been drawn by geopolitical circumstances.

Flrst, flbre processlng

1 8" and 1 P centuries, major techndogical events

Since ancient times, lndia has had the world monopoly on cotton production and processing: Greeks, Romans, Arabs, then Europeans imported its luxurious cotton goods. However, in the 1 am century, English induitrialists succeeded in mechanizing lndian processing technologies: it brought an end to lndian supremacy and Europe started importing raw fibre.

Nevertheless, post-harvest processing continued to hold back an expansion in production: ginning, i.e. separation of fibres from the seed, was manual. One person ginned fewer than 3 kilos of fibre per day. But, in 1793, the American Eli Whitney invented the saw gin, a machine which then ginned. 12 kilos of fibre per hour! That technical revolution contributed to the boom in modern Cotton growing in the USA. In 1861, the USA produced 973,000 tonnes of fibre, Le. 82% of world production at the time. England, the main purchaser of American cotton, then monopolized the textile industry.

A t the end of the 19h century, in Europe, the invention of ring spinning and the automatic loom led to a large gain in productivity. Consequently, the British textile industry lost its supremacy and shared cotton


processing with the other European countries and the USA.

20* century, rivalry then complementarity of artificial fibres

In the 1 950s -1 960s, cellulose and synthetic fibres fiooded onto the market, and the share of cotton fibre fell substantially, arriving today at 48% of textile fibres consumed worldwide. That share is stabilizing: artificial fibres are now combined with cotton to create new textiles.

Then, agronomy

20" century, agrommic progress rnakes its mark

In 191 2, the world area planted to coaon was 24.1 million hectares with a fibre yield of 242 kgha. It took until the 1970s to reach 400 kgha. Between 1996 and 2006, yield rose from 575 to 742 kg/ha and, by 2006, the world cotton area amounted to 36 million hectares. Initially, irrigation was a major factor - today, more than 47% of cotton areas are irrigated. Then, pesticides enabled a leap forward, along with fertilization. Lastly, the rise over the last decade was partly due to the boom in genetically modified cotton plants, which now occupy 45% of the areas.

Harvesting machines have also provided considerable progress, making it possible to maintain or develop production in some countries, such as the USA, Brazil, Australia and Uzbekistan.

End of the 2@ century, varietal selection' takes up the challenge of fibre qudity

In recent years, varietal selection has helped to improve the technological characteristics of fibre, which are expressed al1 the better when production factors are effectively mastered, and has also helped to adapt those characteristics to processors' requirements. For instance, the development of open end cotton mills since 1990, which spin twice as fast as ring spinning, has led to a search for stronger fibres. Quality aspects are taking on

increasing importance and generalization of the automatic classification of fibre batches in the USA as early as 1991 is the most tangible illfistration of that. The other countries are following suit, with Australia and Brazil taking the lead, and the measures achieved in that way are increasingly becoming a reference.

Oil and by-products: other added-values

Much use is made of the oil obtained from cottonseed crushing. With 5 million tonnes produced per year, it ranks fifth in the world oils league. There is little cottonseed oil on the international market because there is strong local demand. Although used as an edible oil in the USA and the other producing countries, it also has multiple applications in the agrifood, soap making and, more recently, biofuel sectors. The by-products of cottonseed crushing are also used: presscakes for livestock feed, linter for papermaking and chemistry, and the husk for energy production.

A geographically mobile sector

Wars, factors of geographical distribution

From 1 861 to 1 865, the War of Secession temporarily paralysed American production and the European industrialized nations took advantage of that to start growing cotton in their colonial empires. However, that did not prevent the revival of American cotton and the world fibre price then depended on the quantities of cotton harvested in the USA. Then, World War I led to a break between suppliers and buyers of raw fibre, thread and fabric. Some countries then equipped themselves with a' textile industry, others embarked upon cotton growing. World War Il, then the independence of many producing countries further accelerated that expansion.

Over 80 producing countries, but an M a n textile industry

Despite the vast distribution of cotton growing in more than 80 countries, 90% of production is now concentrated in ten


countries. The leading four produce 68% of world fibre: China, USA, India, and Pakistan. Brazll comes in fifth position, followed by Uzbekistan, then French-speaking Africa, and lastly Turkey, Australia and Creece. China, the leading producer for more than 20 years, is also the leading importer and the leading processot-, using up 40% of world cotton. The USA, the second leading producer, but maln exporter, retains its dominant position. Although French-speaking Africa is the world's sixth leading producer, it is neverthelm the world's second exporter, with small family farms producing good quality cotton. Among the big four, China, lndia and Paklstan are importers and are also the three leadlng textile countries. Thus, after two centuries of Western supremacy, the begtnning of the 2 1 s t century is characterized by the relocation of the textile industry to Asla, the birthplace of cotton processing a thousand years ago.

2.2- Palm oil, wodd leader in half a century

Throughout the 20' century, the oil palm conquered new territories and markets and the oil palm industry became a major player In Southeast Asia. A truly explosive expansion took place in the last quarter of the 20' century. In 2006, palm oil headed the oils and fats league, with 38 million tonnes, amounting to 30% of world vegetable oil production.

Up to the tum of the 20" czntury, an African gathering sector

The oil palm originates from the Culf of Culnea in intertropical Africa. Wild oil palm groves were exploited there as part of the gathering economy for local food purposes. In Brazil and the West Indies, the oil palm followed the slave trade routes . in the '16' century. In Southeast Asia, it was reported in the 1 9' century as an ornamental.

It was in the mid-19' century that Europe, notably England, started showing an lnterest in the oil palm in its colonial empires. It began to import palm kernels (oil palm seeds), along with some palm oil derived from

the mesocarp of the fruit. Extraction was stll l of too poor a quality for agrifood use, but it suited industrial uses, such as candle, soap, margarine, glycerine and lubricant making. As the wild oil palm groves were near the Coast, they benefited from the newly created African railway lines. Up to the first quarter of the 20' century, oil palm picking and trade in palm kernels and palm oil virtually only concerned Africa on the Culf of Cuinea and colonizing Europe, with England a t the helm.

Mid-20h centuy-, industrialization and a shift to Asia

A t the same time, right at the beginning of the 20' century, some Europeans launched the first agroindustrial plantations in Sumatra, then in Malaysia. By 1938, 120,000 hectares had already been planted in lndonesia and Malaysia, which was already exporting more than the whole of Africa. It has to be said that the climate in Southeast Asia is ideal! Rainfall, sunlight and temperature conditions there are much more suitable than in the Culf of Cuinea. The soils too: the volcanic soils of Sumatra are incomparably more fertile than most African solls. Exploitation of cultivated oil palm plantations led to a radical change in world production, and there was a gradua1 shift from Africa to Asia.

From the 1960s onwards, estates were planted in several Latin ~merican countries. Nigeria, the world's leading producer and exporter, along with Zaire, virtually no longer exported anything. lvory Coast became a small exporter. Following its independence in 1957, Malaysia started out on its course to become the world's leading producer and exporter through its rubber tree

.diversification policy. A t the same time, socio-poljtical circumstances handicapped Indonesia, but it started catching up in the 1980s and that country is now hard on the heels of Malaysia. Also from the 1980s onwards, other Southeast Asian countries embarked upon industrial production. Today, 40 countries, al1 in the intertropical zone, grow oil palm, but only two countries,


lndonesia and Malaysia, account for 86% of world palm oil production.

From 1940 onwards, agronomy and technology advance together

Up to the turn of the 20h century, industrialists were more interested in palm kernel oil, because the nut from which it was extracted was easier to transport and store than palm oil. The palm oil trade then really took off between the two World Wars, with the development of agroindustrial oil palm estates and considerable improvement in oil extraction technology.

Between 1940 and 1 960, breeding of the dura oil palm, then crosses between tenera and dura palms, then dura and pisifera, resulted in a spectacular increase in the proportion of mesocarp and oil in the fruit. Agronomic progress, notably mineral fertilization with leaf analysis, also greatiy improved yields. For instance, whilst only 300 kg of oil/ha was achieved at the beginning of the 20h century in wild groves, which corresponded to the productivity of annual oil crops, productivity reached 3 tonnes of CPO (Crude Palm Oil) per hectare in cultivated oil palm plantations in 1945 and 4 t/ha in the 1980s.

A t the same time, extraction technologies were adapted with the invention of the screw press. The capacity of oil mills rose from a few hundred kilos of fruits processed per day in 191 1 to more than 6 0 tonnes of FFB per hour today.

Since 1 980, palm and palm kernel oils have dominateci the market

In the 1970s) Malaysia and lndonesia established refineries, to use palm oil for human consumption, in addition to traditional coconut oil whose production was stagnating. Coconut oil was gradually reserved for export to industrialized countries. On the world market, palm kernel oil also compensated for the chronic lack of coconut oil, as the composition of those two oils is very similar.

In 1981, introduction of the pollinating insect Elaeidobius kariierunicus revolutionized production in Southeast Asia: natural pollination by those insects, which greatly increased fruit-set, replaced laborious hand pollination, which was very labour-intensive and not very efficient.

The oil palm, which is incredibly productive, has robbed the American and European continents of their supremacy in oils and fats production based on annual oil crops, which are ten times less productive. In the 1980s) the USA attempted to destabilize palm oil, a major rival of soybean oil, by comparing it to some animal fats. Those arguments were scientifically disparaged by nutritional studies, which showed the great versatility of palm oil use, its high technological stability, and the pointlessness of hydrogenization when used as an ingredient in margarines. Today, palm oil is thus ubiquitous in agrifoods: 80% used for human consumption and 20% for industrial uses.

In the 2 1" century, a stand-off between oils and the environment?

But the oil war is not yet over. I t is shifting to the ecological field: indeed, the expansion of oil palm growing tends to increase the destruction of forests and their biodiversity. But, on the other hand, the limitless development of soybean cultivation appears to be the major culprit in the degradation of natural environments in South America over much wider areas than those newly planted to oil palm.

With the rise in petroleum oil prices, it is technically easy to replace it partially with vegetable oils as biofuels, especially with palm oil, which is the cheapest. Several questions then arise: how can palm oil production be stepped up to meet increasing agrifood, lipid chemistry and now biofuel requirements, whilst sparing biodivenity? How can rivalry be avoided between food and energy demands, which are both strategic?

2007 CONFERENCE ON PLANTATION COMMODITIES "Visionary Agriculture Malaysian Comrnodity Crops in 100 years"

the exercise in which we are involved, by the end of the 21a century, unpredictable breaks in trends can only be dealt with from a

hlstorical analysis shows that no fictional angle. However, it is necessary to study the variables of the current context: what becomes of them is, of course, decisive for the future of agriculture in human activities. An analysis of those evolutions will

going back several thousand years enable us to identify variables whose role might be decisive in major agricultural

phases of fierce competition with other In theory, those variables are many. pmducts of the same type (oil) or a They concern the global and demographic dlfferent type (synthetic fibres). context, the strategies, of the major

stakeholders, international regulations, the lt also shows us that these two sectors dynamics of production and consumption, the

betterment of knowledge and technical progress, and the availability of planetary

a boom in the areas planted, yields and resources. agricultural performance, declslve technological events, notably with We have chosen to outline a brief lmproved varieties, agricultural practices, analysis of variables in the current context, by post-harvest processes, illustrating some of those which we feel to be a major planetary shift in production, important in terms of externalities and uses processing and markets, associated with linked to commodity crops: competition social or economic upheavals, between natural and synthetic production, the importance of quality (fibre technology food supplies, land management, landscape, for cotton, chemical composition for palm forest environments, energy needs, climate

change, and the globalization of trade.

These aspects of the sectors' evolution 3.1 - Natural-synthetic competition: the example need to be taken as variables in a "foresight' of wood and rubber type analysis. The same analysis in other sectors brings out other variables, and makes Wood was long the main raw material for It possible to appreciate their incidence on the energy and the archetype construction scale of a decade or a century. This brief material: its great physical resistance historical vision shows us, however, that one . compared to its density, its easy manual should not limit oneself to a sectorial vision by working, and its abundant natural production supply chain, but that studies should be left no place for any rival. Then, access to opened up to experts from outside the cheap fossil fuels (coal, oil) led to a boom in agricultural sector, such as demographers, an energy-intensive industry for the large-scale doctors, or legal experts. production and processing of materials

rivalling wood, such as metal alloys, concrete 3- CURRENT CONTD(T: KEY VARIABLES and plastics, whose technological FOR 'THE FUTURE charrjcteristics and the ease with which they

adapted to the production of complex shapes, The historical analysis of the cotton and palm pushed wood towards more specific uses. oil sectors brought out breaks in trends, some of which were totally unexpected, whilst For its part, natural rubber others fitted in with changes in context. For experienced the disorganization of its supply

7

3.2- Quality food, a challenge for industrialized and developing nations

circuits by the two World Wars. In the first half of the 20th century, synthetic products, primarily derived from petroleum oils, appeared on the market. However, those products did not destabilize the sector, as they were expensive and technologically not very reliable. In the second half of the 20th century, progress in chemistry led to the elaboration of synthetic products with stable and uniform characteristics, available in a wide range of articles effectively meeting the requirements of industry. They then seriously rivalled natural rubber, a much more heterogeneous biological product, though without replacing it completely: indeed, the industry has never succeeded in identically reproducing some of its specific characteristics at reasonable cost.

For wood, as for natural rubber, competition was fierce, but a balance was finally established. Today, those two products owe their place on the markets to their inherent qualities - which, for example, made natural rubber an essential constituent of truck tyres - and especially to numerous innovations - wood is converted into p lywoods, reconstituted panels, glue-laminated beams, etc.

In addition, as fossil energy is inevitably rising in price, strong renewed interest is currently being shown in wood and natural rubber, due to their production conditions. The rubber tree is the only biological factory functioning on carbon from the atmosphere, capable of producing a polymer with a highly favourable energy balance, since it takes 0.4 tonnes equivalent of petroleum oil to produce one tonne of natural rubber, whereas it takes ten times more to produce one tonne of synthetic rubber. As regards wood, supply and demand are roughly stabilized; the sector has derived fresh vigour from the strongly growing Asian markets and, in other respects, the more environmentalist vision of forest potential and its use for the carbon market.

2007 CONFERENCE ON PLANTATION COMMODITIES 'Visionary Agriculture: Malaysian Commodity Crops in 100 years"

Whilst calorie intake was the strong argument for food security until now, food quality aspects are now being taken into accaunt, particularly the balance in macronutrients and the role of micronutrients in human health.

Emergency plans are being implemented on an international scale to try and alleviate the main deficiencies (iron, zinc, provitamin A) through dietary supplements. But their efficiency seems to be in doubt. Indeed, at the same time, chronic non- transmissible diseases, which are widespread in industrialized countries, are exploding in developing countries: obesity, type B diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, etc. It also happens frequently that the same people - notably at-risk people such as pregnant women - display both iron and vitamin A deficiencies and obesity symptoms. The reasons given would seem to be more the nutritional imbalance than excess food, but the reality is complex. Mention is also made of a deficiency in antioxidant molecules, which are insufficient to counterbalance the excess in so-called free radical molecules, whose metabolic synthesis is linked to numerous factors, such as modern living - a sedentary life style, stress, type of diet, exposure to pollution - but the proof is still lacking. The only known way of limiting these veritable epidemics is the combination of a healthy life, with a physical activity and a balanced, diversified diet rich in micronutrients. No food supplement can replace a healthy diet. It is now acknowledged that fruits and vegetables are foods that contribute most in supplying some essential micronutrients. Below an average consumption of 400 g of fruits and vegetables per day per adult, the risks of non-transmissible chronic diseases could greatly increase. In terms of the availability of agricultural produce, in Africa that quantity may be reached in a few countries of the rainforest zone, but that is no longer the case at al1 in the Sahel region, where the consumption level is from 5 0 to 100 g/day and the situation can be considered highly critical. In Asia, there are many reasons for a lack of fruit and vegetable consumption: production deficit, dietary habits, accessibility,

2007 CONFERENCE ON PLANTATION COMMODITIES "Visionary Agriculture Malaysian Commodity Crops in 100 years"

butlon circuits for highly perishable grow. That creates strong tensions for agricultural land, which are partly to blame for recent socio-political disputes, though the

olnt Initiative by FA0 and WHO control of mining resources also remains a fruits and vegetables was launched major source of conflict. Such land tenure In order to make countries, tensions are amplified, as in certain African

and donors aware of the measures and Latin American countries, when land overcome the serious public health extensions by the richest and State requisition

are permitîed by the unregulated land market. On the other hand, they are calmed when the industrial sector develops and provides work for rural people who have migrated to towns, as in some Asian countries.

y, three major types of land tenure The strategy of access to new, hence atlons are usually found in the world: theoretically fertile, lands, which takes the

form of migratory flows and the establishment bnd tenure situation with severe of forest-agriculture frontiers (cotton and

cocoa in Africa, livestock rearing in Latin America), has always sidelined the strategy of restoring degraded soils, which is more

estates managed with a view to making labour-intensive. I t is only when rural populations have not been able to migrate

a land tenure situation regulated by the land and the population density has exceeded a market (sale, rent), where agriculture is certain threshold, that land restoration mostly family-based (e.g. France). One of techniques have been applied on a significant the alms of the farmer is to maintain or scale. In Africa, that initiative has largely been lmprove the land assets of his farm, due to the efforts of farmers, whereas in Asia a land tenure situation where land is a (mainly India), it has been accompanied . by resource managed by the community (e.g. proactive agricultural policies. Afrlca). When population pressure is moderate, such collective management However today, notably in Africa, makes it possible to distribute the land to family farms are faced with a scarc'ky of everybody (young people, migrants, etc.). quality land, and it is becoming increasingly

difficult to clear fertile forest lands (e.g. for But these collective rules are currently cocoa) or former cleared land (e.g. for yam

evolving towards much more individualistic or cotton). These sectors, and family farms management. Land inequalities are appearing that depend on that, need to find technical between families who founded the village and solutions and no longer count on the natural other less well endowed families. In addition, stock of fertility in certain areas yet to be In those countries, even though the State still cultivated. The need to innovate to intensify clalms the right of ownership as set down in farming systems is therefore a strong priority, the laws, an unofficial agrtcultural land market especially for producing more per unit area. Is appearing in a very active way.

Lastly, especially in the humid Depopulation of the countryside, the Tropics, it is impossible to gloss over the land

underrating of agriculture, and rural exodus status of forest zones, which st i l l remain land are often considered to be strong trends on a reserves suitable for logging initially, then world scale. Whilst effectively characterizing agricultural development. The increase in industrialized countries, that observation petroleum oil prices might channel those cannot be generalized to tropical countries, biomass resources towards the biofuel sector. where rural populations are continuing to That tendency should speed up the

exploitation of forest areas. Yet their land status is complex: it is usually a formal status of State ownership, to which are added local legal practices whose scope is sometimes blurred. Two hypotheses are on the agenda. In the first, States atîribute large concessions for logging which would then be retumed to smallholders. In the second, States could encourage the redistribution of those vast areas already exploited for timber to agroindustrial groups committed to biofuel production. Today, there is no proven fact that suggests a move to one or other of these two hypotheses. Developments will depend both on technical data and on social pressures, such as the rbing cost of hired labour and the ability of local rural populations to have a Say in the choice of land allocations made by States.

3.4- The hndxape, a way of diagncuing agricultural development

The landscape reflects the functioning of a society, and it is claimed either individually or collectively by those who inherit it. The first indications on the perception of the environment come from China in the 2nd century, then from Europe in the 16th century. Today, even though each society develops its own sensitivity, the way in which the landscape is perceived amounts to the visual side of Our relationship with the environment.

New observation tools, such as aerial photographs and satellite images, or computerized geographic systems, have widely contributed to a generalized perception of landscapes as "mosaics" derived from land-use methods. Today, those tools are used by numerous players to considerably broaden their point of view, which used to be limited to what Our eyes alone could see. Landscape analysis has become a tool for understanding and intervening in the environment.

Large-scale farming has a considerable impact on landscapes, particularly in the humid Tropics. Vast areas of natural forests have been converted to planted areas, often


into monotonous monocultures, in managed systems leaving little room for variation and heterogeneity. By rationalizing production processes, agricultural intensification increases their productivity, but it amplifies negative ecological impacts, such as a reduction in biodiversity, soi1 and water pollution, a reduction in the variety of crops. It homogenizes human skills and erases multiple perception capacities. Lastly, it reduces the possibilities of complementarity and consensus between different agricultural options.

In that agricultural development context, landscape analysis is the basis for al1 environmental, economic or social diagnosis, whatever the sale. It is the main tool in landscape ecology. That disciplinary field, which has emerged in the last 25 years, makes it possible to understand how the positioning of elements in a landscape interacts with ecological processes, in both time and space. The joint involvement of ecologists, agronomists and geographers then becomes necessary to foresee the most suitable land-use modes for future requirements and constraints. For their part, historians, sociologists and economists are involved in the way society will perceive and appreciate those layouts, in order to integrate them within an environment that best corresponds to their aspirations. It is therefore a highly integrative approach that landscape ecology proposes for making the artificialization of territories viable and sustainable.

During the 21" century, the landscape is thus set to take front stage. The technological tools needed to visualize, describe and analyse it, along with the accompanying concepts, are booming. They will help to greatly improve the perception of Our environment and more widely share the sustainable development approach.

3.5- Tropical forest envimnments: essential for ecological and economic @lance

Forese and natural environments currently account for almost half of the land areas in the tropical regions. Those environments

gP " j

the major share of terrestrial diversity the development of carbon markets, in jllPltly contrlbute to biological carbon r$k terms of "avoided deforestation" and stored ,

@& whllst a b playing a major social and carbon. k role for numerous human societies.

p In this context, forest environments : Some tropical countries have a high need to evolve towards an organization in OIa ~f forest cover, such as Brazil, Gabon, four major sectors:

&&y to 10 million hectares per year (1 % biomass production,

ice tor agricultural purposes, tor etc.), nd burn agriculture or '- ---%ries that do not the establishment of protected areas,

J~stainable forest exceeding 20°h of the natural environments involved, intended to conserve and manage the construction of

aa part of national biodiversity with the help of novel reward

d m e n t . mechanisms, sustainable management of semi-natural

@*7 @ The evolution of tropical forests is forests for the production of high added-

rtannlned hv nurnerous factors, the most value wood and non-wood resources. ire as follows: I ecological consequences Such modifications result in substantial

& or cllmate change, notably in terms of changes in landscapes and players. Landscapes bbdlverslty and productivity, but also in evolve towards very pronounced forest- Wms of new "carbon" markets, agriculture mosaics. Companies, farmers and the prlorities given to natural ecosystem non-governmental organizations play a greater protection, on national and international role, and States and international scales, by politicians and civil society, organizations focus on their legislative and woclated with changes in the stakeholders regulatory functions.

wlll lead to further deforestation, despite World consumption of primary energy (oil, the expected increases in productivity, natural gas, coal, nuclear, renewable energies) the search for high added-value molecules has increased by 25% since the 1970s for medicine and green chemistry, virtually linearly. In the global energy balance,

lignocellulosic the share of each of them has varied litîle

for construction over recent years: the share of oil has risen

productioh, and from 35 to 40%, gas from 15 to 20 %,

reei inuustry to replace whilst the share of coal and biomass have remained stable, at 25% for coal and a little

llgnocelluloslc Dlomass convertea inu, because it is virtually the sole source of energy blofuels, accessible to populations in developing

countries.

11


In terms of renewable energies, will be possible to find solutions for pyrolysis cultivated and natural biomass holds an and gasification of the whole plant, the important position. The production of heat current obstacle being the production of a and motive force from wood matter covers quality gas to achieve efficient fuels. In the 95% of the 10% of biomass-based energy medium term, cellulose extraction needs to be currentiy consumed and it offers considerable developed for its hydrolysis and conversion potential. In other respects, hydrocarbons into fuel. dedicated to transport only amount to 15% of total fossil fuel consumption: that is why In the 21" century, under the dual the entire bioenergy approach should not be threat of fossil fuel shortages and climatic geared towards the production of fuels upheaval, it is essential for human society to intended to replace petroleum products. step up technological and social innovations Using biomass to produce heat then motive towards new energy pathways and a les force converted into mechanical work or energy-consuming world. electrical energy offers a much better energy balance than most o f the biofuel production 3.7- Globl warming: worryir~g pra~peas pathways. However, this type of sector can be

1 penalized by the distance between the The climate détermines the functioning of $ 1 resource harvesting site and the energy natural and cultivated ecosystems, the growth

' 1 consumption site. The location of the of cultivated species and the potential I I processing and production site then becomes Ill productivity of those species. On a global

1 ' strategic and that spatial factor becomes a scale, forecasting the net temperature increase

\ l: principal feasibility factor. is just one of the aspects of climate change. Rainfall intensity and distribution are also

i i The production of biofuels from going to play a decisive role in tropical l

, I dedicated crops has now been launched. This agricultures where it is oken water that involves sugar or starch bearing plants that

' 1 determines agricultural rhythms. 1 , provide ethanol (petrol substitute) or oil 1 1 l bearing plants (diesel substitute). The The increase in temperature has

1 1 1 1 ~ ; fundamental question arises in terrns of different consequences depending on whether 1 I I 1 1 energy efficiency, i.e. the ratio between the a tropical or temperate region is considered.

I energy produced and the energy consumed. In a tropical region, the increase in

1 , I Most energy crops envisaged in industrialized temperature r ~ u l t s in shorter development countries have low energy efficiency, phases, which reduces the amount of energy sometimes even negative, whilst it is excellent intercepted by the plant cover and can for tropical crops such as sugarcane or oil therefore reduce productivity. Whereas palm. However, al1 these crops will not satisfy temperate regions could benefit from a longer demand as it stands at the moment. I f current season propitious to plant development, as palm oil production were to be totally used as the temperature in those regions is a limiting fuel, it would only cover 1.6% of current factor today; tropical regions will have to petroleum oil consumption and that of cope with the negative effects of higher sugarcane would approach 2%! Nevertheless, maximum temperatures. energy crops will play an essential role in rural economic development, particularly in I f the biology of plant and animal emerging countries, and will be a tool for the species is disturbed, the dynamics of those perpetuation of agriculture in industrialized species, their balances and, ultimately, their countries. geographic distributions are likely to change.

Such modifications will affect wild species, Lignocellulosic biomass offers much cultivated or domesticated species, but also

greater potential. This pathway calls for a their associated pests and diseases. Natural further research effort to achieve industrial ecosystems, subjected to a change in balances technological solutions. In the short term, it between species, with increased competition

12

2007 CONFERENCE ON PLANTATION COMMODITIES "Visionaq Agriculture: Malaysian Commodity Crops in 100 years"

that cooperation will be established between previously rival countries in order to take up this formidable challenge. On the other hand, food products with a high cultural and ethnic content will be distributed on local markets, for which farming systems and marketing chains will have environmental impacts that are kept to a minimum. In that global context, the concept of competing agricultural exporting countries or blocks will disappear.

3.9- Conclusion: different viewpoints about the future

We have just briefly described aspects of the commodity crop development context: competition between natural and synthetic production, food, land management, the landscape, forest environments, energy requirements, climate change, and trade globalization. Of course, this brief analysis is not exhaustive and does not indicate orders of importance. It proposes food for thought based on key variables, notably for agriculture in the regions of the South, which could, depending on developments, lead to radically different futures. It is those variants that we go on to examine in the following section, organizing the evolution hypotheses according to three points of view: trend, disaster and optimistic fiction.

4- EvoIution hypotheses: trend, disaster, optimistic fiction

What will be the role of agriculture in the planetary evolution scenarios towards the end of the 21' century? What major challenges will have to be faced, to ensure farmer prosperity, the sustainability of cultivated areas, and the satisfaction of food requirements, and also to contribute to the world's energy needs? These are the questions that guided Our analysis of the evolution hypotheses for a few major determinants of the possible future of commodity crops.

4.1 - Trend hypotheses

Wodd context

The global population grows up to the middle of the 21 * century, then peaks at 9 billion people. The major pandemics so feared at the beginning of the century have not had any notorious effect on global demography, even though they severely affected certain populations randomly. Despite the demographic transition, the demand for agricultural products continues to increase, particularly as a large share of the world population still lives below the threshold of basic needs.

Pressure on agricultural product prices keeps them low. Consequently, farmer incomes depend, not only on production but also on the creation of added-value and making use of externalities. One of the consequences of these developments is a drop in the number of farmers. That drop, associated with agricultural intensification, helps to improve the living standards of the farmers in place. This scenario, experienced by Europe in the 20th century, nonetheless remains hypothetical for countries with a large population such as lndia and China.

The drop in the number of farmers increases migrant flows from countries with a large agricultural population. Those flows move from the countryside to the towns, but also go increasiqly further, between South and North, and between regions of the South. Those migrants rarely find jobs in the agricultural sector: education plays a major role in their integration in other sectors of activity.

Fossil energy resources severely diminish. Other resources take over and, among them, those derived from forest and agricultural biomass. Competition between food and energy production becomes fiercyr. Agriculture alone cannot cope with the energy demand, particularly as it consumes energy itself.

The disruption of natural phenomena linked to cycles of the major elements- carbon, nitrogen and water-has contrasting


depending on the regions. In the International regufations

New types of regulation emerge, be it for the organization of international trade or

y depend on water availability-such is international agreements on the climate, e, for example, with oil palm and biodiversity, marine resources, or governance

and management of health risks. Those on sunlight and rainfall regulations extend to social aspects.

Product standardization and the International political relations are procedures launched in the 20th century by

States are subject to the growing influence of they are being established in a private macro-players, who impose their

of globalization or regionalization. economic power on that level. However, the Ing depends on the nature and degree major areas yet to be tackled, such as social, enslons experienced by the agricultural environmental and ethicai standards, are

. However, one certainty is the negotiated by States or groups of States. derant political clout of emerging International companies closely monitor those es with strong agricultural potential. negotiations as they are highly concerned by

the economic fallout. of the major stakeholders

Capital transfers, mostly between the In the 20h century, intemational negotiations North and the South in the 20th century, were the preserve of States. New become substantial between the regions of the macrp-players now enter the game. South. New geopolitical rivalries are taking Multinational companies intervene without shape. hdsltatlon in areas other than the economy, and even as donors, via foundations. That Production dynamics trend lncreases but is counterbalanced by the gmwlng influence of professional organizations Urbanization-agriculture rivalry increases, and non-governmental organizations. The leading to higher land prices and speculation major global challenges are therefore debated on agricultural land. Tensions over agricultural In very diversified forums. areas with high production potential also

increase. Political regionalization gradually

llmlts the role of each nation on the Two systems are possible: International stage. In fact, block strategies specialization and integration. Specialization cake over from national strategies. On a world responds to economic criteria and market scale, Common Agricultural Policies, be they reglonal or continental, become negotiating earmarked for high added-value production, Instruments in the sector. notably food products, zones with less

. . potential are used for energy production and In terms of information exchanges, high ecology value zones become reserves.

the information asymmetry known in the However, specialization gives rise to many 20th century has been greatly reducèdby the negative extemalities. As for integration, in growing influence of non-governmental addition ' to economic agricultural organizations and professional organizations, expectations, it also takes into account social whlch rely on the development of new and political expectations. It results in information technologies. numerous types of enterprises with multiple

functions, no longer just agricultural.

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2007 CONFERENCE ON PLANTATION COMMODITIES "Visionary Agriculîure: Malaysian Commodity Crops in 100 years"

The recovery of abandoned land is a the case in the 20th century for certain priority. Some soils reputed to be pharmaceutical molecules. uncultivated land or even soils naturally without vegetation start to be used by a new Consurnption dynarnics agriculture, where the necessary water and nutrients are provided. The loss of agricultural The quantitative demand for agricultural food land due to rising water (lagoons, estuaries, products increases steadily during the 21S polders, etc.) is compensated for in some century to meet calorie needs. In quality regions by the creation of farms for marine terms, the 21S century began with a very species or alga cultivation. strong emergence of health problems linked

to inadequate consumption of fruits and Animal production methods evolve, vegetables, whose prices were prohibitive,

especially since fishing stocks are rapidly moreover. There is therefore a dual exhausted. Production with low energy challenge: produce more and provide efficiency (e.g. red mat) is replaced by less consumers with cheaper products. The energy-consuming production (poultry, etc.). specialized high added-value production of

periurban crops is therefore re-thought, to the Whilst, in the 20h century, the benefit of other,' more distant supply circuits,

agricultural sector was balanced between which offer farmers a capacity for smallholdings and large agroindustrial diversification that has a positive effect on complexes, that balance changes in the 21a their incomes. century. The increasing cost of hired labour steps up the rise in small-sale agriculture with Consumers are increasingly sensitive

I I more diversified activities. On the other hand, to food safety. Stqtes set in place highly l the processing of agricultural primary elaborated standardization. In that context,

products into finished products remains highly organic agriculture play an increasing role by dependent upon firms, which procure the improving its productivity to meet that

l added-value. Processing increasingly growing demand. approaches production, leading to a scarcity of primary products on the markets, Knowiedge and technologies especially the international markets. In order

l to meet local and regional demand, or highly Technological progress follows in the wake of diversified world demand, processed products major discoveries. Human societies consider are numerous and specialized. However, that science and the resulting innovations can

1 I l l international trade is reduced, due to the help to solve numerous problems. Yet, at the

I l1 ~ prohibitive costs of transport. Countries and same time, they wish to include an ethical 111 ' regions increasingly consume what they dimension, and checks by civil society on the

I II produce. use made of those innovations. The 111

I 11' investment allocated to research is increasing Crowth in the use of biotechnologies steadily, given the new extent of problems

profoundly modifies the production sector. affecting the agricultural sector. The key Conventional breeding of plant species and words "sustainable development" are more the creation of genetically modified varieties, than a fad, as their relevance has been combined with better knowledge of genome confirmed over the years. Research objectives functioning, also lead to a greater are therefore staked out in the long term by specialization of cultivated plants. New species this challenge of the utmost importance. are also created, notably for producing high added-value molecules for green chemistry. Conventional targeted research Nonetheless, the culture of microorganisms themes are maintained, even though new derived from genetic modification compete modes of social and economic coordination, with those cultivated plants, as was already linked to information technologies, are

appearing, and even though new technological

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2007 CONFERENCE ON PLANTATION COMMODITIES "Visionary Agriculture Malaysian Commodity Crops in 100 years"

bfwkthroughs are occurring in breeding, and non-tariff barriers are established, added- pmislon agriculture, IPM, product value remains in the hands of stakeholders in ptiocessing, etc. lncreasing importance is being a dominant position, who hold back #van to increasingiy integrative complexity information, thereby preventing economic ~proaches, from the genome to economics, systems inherited from the past from capable of taking into account problems evolving. rsbted to changes of scale.

Education and research find nothing and no New research-development players longer innova te

us seelng the light of day, due to better Human society no longer trusts innovation. VIlnlng for farmers, and increasing access to Fundamentalism in al1 its forms is taking over. information. Participatory research is World evolution is blocked, institutions are becomlng much more efficient. inward-looking, exchanges become sterile and

innovation, which depends on exchanges Research funding is st i l l ensured by between people, is no longer a source of

publk and private investments. The balance bstween the two increasingly depends on the mtegic interest of the field of research Natural resources become scdrce and the cmsldered. The concept of creating public or environment deteriorates private goods through research is tending to There is increasing pressure on the We, wlth both sectors setting up partnerships environrnent, few solutions are found. The bo apply the results of their work together. degradation of essential resources (air, water,

biodiversity, etc.) is often irreversible. 42- Uypotheses of sudden breaks with trends, W~I disastm t m s q u e m s Natural risks affect al1 regions of the worid

Global warming is out of control and Beyond the developrnent of trends just accelerating. Droughts, floods, cyclones and descrlbed, some detenninants, under certain typhoons become intense and frequent. There condltions, might evolve disastrously, casting is considerable agricultural damage. 21" century agriculture into a state of Agricultural yields drop or become absolute crisb. unpredictable.

U m t r d l e d population gmwth Fawil fuels in lnhort supply The world population increases well beyond No viable solution has been found to replace the forecast of a demographic transition in the fossil fuels. The gap between energy mld-2 1 * century, especially in some brge requirements and availability widens, regions. Tensions centring on food, land and particularly because life styles have not energy, and on the use of resources, changed since the 20th century. The rise in culmlnate in major conflicts. Social tensions costs is disastrous for agriculture, product further impoverish the rural world, causing a procesing and availability for consumers. rural exodus and runaway urbanization in the Water shortages and famine become chronic megacities, which are incapable of ensuring in some regions. thelr own supplies. Lastly, the failure of education prevents the rural populations of Tensions worsen in the agricu/tural w d d the poorest countries from climbîng aboard Due to increased competition between the train of technological progres. different ' types of agriculture, the

deterioration of the living standards of the Economic and political gfobalization fails poorest populations worsens. Some of the Global dialogue is in deadlock, there is a rural world a behind in the world return to protectionbm, which is hardly likely integration process. For those farmers, hunger to respond to global challenges. New tariff and poverty have not been beaten and

17


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worsen, increased by land speculation, which speeds up the rural exodus and transfers those tensions to the towns.

Pditical uncertainty and tensions increase

State structures prove incapable of adapting to a world in the throes of change. States act as a brake on change and their capacities for dialogue, regulation and standardization fall apart. Social cohesion, which alone is able to ensure the introduction of structures capable of taking up the challenges, collapses.

4.3- Optimisîic fiction scenario: 2 106, megaprod~~ion o f palm oil

In 2106, the doubly green revolution, precision agriculture, sustainable development and fair trade have become as familiar and essential to humans as the mobile phone in 2007! In thb highly positive context, oil palm growing still holds a preponderant position in Southeast Asian agriculture. The oil palm has become a highly versatile and productive plant, which responds amazingly well to biotechnological and agronomic innovations. Some researchers are even working on creating an annual oil palm species, which could be machine-harvested!

A radical& equiîable world context

Around 40 years earlier, in the 2060s, family agriculture in tropical countries completed its transition from a subsistence system to a commercial agriculture. In its great majority, it has taken into account the requirements of the doubly green revolution, encouraged by the generalization of microcredit and mutual management o f agricultural and industrial commodity prices by FAICP (Fund for the mutualized management of Agricultural and Industrial Commodity Prices, a UN organization created after the depletion of proven fossil energy stocks). Through such mutual management, FAICP has enabled a boom'. in fair trade and done away with commod'ky prices based on outdated factors such as short-term speculation of marginal surplus or deficit effects.

Whilst the forests of Malaysia and lndonesia seemed to be destined to disappear in the 2030s-2040~~ the combination of al1 these technical and socio-economic factors has completely reversed the trend: the forest area in those two countries has increased by around 15 million hectares (500,000 halyear) in the form of agroforests and managed forests, combining short- and long- cycle species. However, the reconstitution of forest areas needs to be continued for 3 0 to 40 years at a sustained rhythm (1 million hectares per year) to stabilize micro- and macro-climatic variations and slow down the water cycle on numerous islands of the archipelago. Civen the rising waters, the former coastal mangroves have recovered their prime functions as biodiversity reserves and buffers between the marine environment and the coast, thereby forming effective barriers in regions affected by cyclones. The reforestation programme is backed by FAICP, following the virtual disappearance of noble hardwoods around the middle of the 21 st

century.

An infinite range of specialized palms

Breeders now have a catalogue of extremely specialized clonal or traditional varieties, which can also be prototyped on request for industrial requirements.

The oil palm has a production cycle of 10 years, starting to bear at 12 months, enabling continual adaptation to market needs. Cenetic production potential reaches 12 to 14 tonnes of CPO (Crude Palm Oil) per hectare per year. In Malaysia and Indonesia, average yields are 9 tonnes, despite the impact of recurring climate problems linked to fluctuations in ocean currents and cyclones.

Molecular biology work has made it possible to master the "distributed programme" managing genome functioning on the level o f the cell, plant and interactions with the environment. For almost 2 0 years, introgression of agronomic traits has been practised right from the embryonlc stage in variety breeding schemes. Varlety creation


place in a field-laboratory-nursery Precision agronomy: microchips in stems and blnatlon over 7 years per cycle rather laser harvesting 30 years at the beginning of the 21%

As agricultural labour has become scarcer in line with the economic development of

Clonlng by in vitro culture has producing countries, estates and producer generalized and has enabled the groups have invested in mechanization and

tlon of high-yielding genotypes. As precision agriculture. For harvesting, an optical ranging remote sensor is used to assess bunch ripeness and directly informs a highly specialized technician who uses a laser beam to cut the bunches and a robot to collect them. The harvesting equipment also records the weight and number of cut bunches.

pressure, governments and Bunches are collected by vehicles propelled on a cushion of air so as not to compact the

Ing groups, have also released their soil, like al1 equipment entering the plantation lnto the public domain. plots.

A close understanding of the major Input consumption, particularly bollc regulation pathways has enabled oil nitrogen, has been considerably reduced by growlng to move into once marginal the creation of palms with a high mineral (degraded savannah, saline soils) with assimilation capacity. Mechanized and

robotized fertilization have virtually done away with mineral losses. The major application takes the form of composts

m)Or endemic diseases (vascular wilt, bud recycling urban sludges, EFB and oil miIl rot, Ganoderma). In addition, a combination sludges. Those applications are carried out on 01 blologlcal IPM and selection methods has request based on messages received from Qgne away with synthetic pesticide use sensors managed by microchips inserted in the Ihroughout agroindustry. Only a few regions stems. Physiological data are transmitted to a where famlly agriculture has yet to complete drone-borne automatic central control unit. kr transition to the doubly green revolution That unit evaluates physiological' parameters rtlll use pesticides, but under very strict (water, sugars and minerals) and determines

daily energy needs.

In order to direct oil uses towards In 2 106, biotechnologies continue to (hsmlstry, the oil composition has been follow avenues that are promising, but still far ttianged to take into account fatty acid from applicable in the field: palms with profiles adapted to lipid chemistry: the chains triggered floral reversion, making it possible to arc shorter, more unsaturated, with envisage the mutation of the currently grown conlugated double bonds, and even hydroxyl perennial species into an annual species uroups that facilitate later grafting. Some capable of producing, along the lines of vairletles are dedicated to the manufacture of pineapple, 40 tonnes of fruits per hectare

with a 35% extraction rate! This new palm would be machine-harvestable. However, some voi& are raised drawing attention to the climatic impact of this innovation. Indeed, it would mean a switch from 7 million hectares of a perennial crop with high plant cover, concentrated in lndonesia and Malaysia, to an annual crop entailing

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contents page preface i foreword minister of plantation industries and commodities malaysia viii ......

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