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Climate Change and Adaptation- an Overview -

Conference on Biodiversity and Climate Change: Links with Poverty and Sustainable Development

Hanoi, 22-23 May 2007

Bernd-Markus Liss

AGEG Consultants eG on behalf of

GTZ Climate Protection Programme (CaPP)

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Climate change Facts Impacts

Adaptation Messages Initiatives Strategies Challenges

Contents of presentation

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Climate change is a fact!

Since 1850 temperature rise of + 0,74°C Sea level rise in 20th century 17 cm Increase of extreme weather events

Key messages of the 4th IPCC Report

Climate change - facts

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Global and regional rise of temperature so far

Climate change - facts

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Projected temperature rise until 2100

Source: 4th IPCC Report

Climate change - facts

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Temperature rise: even with halting emissions now: + 0,6° C until 2100 depending on scenario: + 1.0 to + 6,3 °C until 2100

Sea level rise: 19-58 cm until 2100 (to be continued over many centuries) But: with permanent warming +3°C

melting of Greenland ice + 7 m (time horizon: centuries/millennia)

Extreme weather events: Drought, heat waves, heavy rains increasing Hurricanes and Cyclones increasing

Projections of the 4th IPCC report for the future

Climate change - facts

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Risks caused by cyclones and sea level rise

Climate change - impacts

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Social and ecological impacts

Climate change - impacts

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Climate change is a risk for development

Numbers and damage caused by global natural disasters (storms, floods, heat waves) will increase dramatically

20-30% decrease of water availability, e.g. in southern Africa and Mediterranean with 2° C temperature increase (with 4° C it will be 30 – 40%)

Up to 80 Million people additionally affected by Malaria

Agricultural yields will decrease by 5 – 35%

15 – 40 % of species endangered by extinction

USD 40 Billion p.a. necessary to make international investments „climate proof“

Climate change - impacts

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Adaptation

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4th IPCC Report – Working Group II

Some key messages: Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the

warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive

adaptation than is currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change.

Options for successful adaptation will diminish and costs increase with increasing climate change

Adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effects of climate change

A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change

Adaptation - messages

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4th IPCC Report – Working Group II

Some key messages: Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the presence of

other stresses, e.g. current climate hazards, poverty and unequal access to resources, food insecurity, trends in economic globalisation, conflict, and incidence of disease

Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change, SD Strategies need to include promoting adaptive capacity and increased resilience

Climate change could impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development (MDGs)

Some adaptation is already occurring now, but on a limited basis

Adaptation - messages

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Action and initiatives towards adaptation

Some initiatives: UNFCCC: adaptation a cross-cutting issue

COP 10, 2004: Buenos Aires Programme of Work on Adaptation and Response Measures

COP 12, 2006: Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change

2006-2007 Regional workshops on adaptation in Africa, SIDS, Latin America, Asia Further decisions expected at COP 13, Bali, Indonesia, December 2007

Tools for risk analysis and adaptation (OECD, FAO, G8, UNFCCC, World Bank) see e.g. http://unfccc.int/adaptation or www.linkingclimateadaptation.org

Linking climate change adaptation strategies with biodiversity (CBD) Community Based Adaptation to Climate Change (IUCN, IIED etc.) National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) of LDCs

Adaptation - initiatives

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Adaptation process

Assessment of Impacts

Determining Vulnerability

Identification of Measures

Setting Priorities

Governance implications

Adaptation is not a purely technical process!

Adaptation - strategies

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Options for adaptation to climate change

Adaptation strategies and measures include aspects of

Technology (e.g., dyke construction) Changes in behaviour (e.g., food, recreational choices,

individual transport) Management (e.g. farm practices, forest management) Policies (e.g., planning regulations, incentives for climate

friendly technologies)

IPCC: Most technologies and strategies are known, but there are

environmental, economic, informational, social, attitudinal and behavioural barriers to implementation of adaptation

For developing countries, availability of resources and building adaptive capacity are particularly important

Adaptation - strategies

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Examples for adaptation to climate change

There is no need to re-invent the wheel!

Micro- und meso level: Introduction of drought resistant seed Strengthening of agrobiodiversity, maintenance of gene pools Sustainable forest management and protected area management Watershed management Adaptation of infrastructure to climate change (e.g. coastal protection) Adjustment of settlement and construction planning Disaster preparedness (early warning systems), …

Macro-level: Protected area management according to geographic changes of

biomes (creation of biodiversity corridors) Management of resettlement and migration processes Integration into planning processes of relevant line ministries, Introduction of special insurance products, …

Integrated approaches to reduce vulnerability

Adaptation - strategies

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Studies of World Bank, OECD, GTZ, etc.: many projects will be

affected negatively by climate change

Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change necessary tools project cycle strategies

Adaptation and development cooperation

Adaptation - challenges

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1. Ensure sustainability of all DC-projects in times of climate change: „climate proofing“

2. Adequate, just and cost efficient design of adaptation processes

3. Financing: Who pays how much?

Stern Review, 2006: The poorest countries are most vulnerable to

climate change. It is essential that climate change be fully

integrated into development policy, and that rich countries honour their pledges to increase support through ODA.

Adaptation and development cooperation

- 3 major challenges:

Adaptation - challenges

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www.gtz.de/climate

GTZ Climate Protection Programme