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Page 1: CONTENTS · 2 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012 CONTENTS Letter from the President - Page 3 Editor’s Note - Page 4 Heikin-Ashi by Gunjan Duaa - Page 5
Page 2: CONTENTS · 2 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012 CONTENTS Letter from the President - Page 3 Editor’s Note - Page 4 Heikin-Ashi by Gunjan Duaa - Page 5

2 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012

CONTENTS

Letter from the President - Page 3

Editor’s Note - Page 4

Heikin-Ashi by Gunjan Duaa - Page 5

Technical Research At Fidelity: Behind The Scenes summarized by Meghana V Malkan - Page 8

The Camarilla Trading System – Part 2 by Dr. Bhooshan Shanbhag - Page 12

Testy Bytes by Kora Reddy - Page 16

Spread Trading-III by Andy Jordan - Page 25

Book Review – The Mind of Wall Street by Somnath M - Page 30

Forthcoming Events - Page 33

Past Events’ Update - Page 34

This newsletter is produced by the Association of Technical Market Analysts. All comments and editorial material do not necessarily reflect the organization's

opinion nor does it constitute an endorsement by the Association of Technical Market Analysts or any of its officers, of any products or services mentioned.

Sources are believed to be reliable at time of publication, but not guaranteed. The Association of Technical Market Analysts and its officers, assume no

responsibility for errors or omissions.

Page 3: CONTENTS · 2 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012 CONTENTS Letter from the President - Page 3 Editor’s Note - Page 4 Heikin-Ashi by Gunjan Duaa - Page 5

OCTOBER 2012 ATMASPHERE | 3

LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT

Dear Colleagues,

Last month has been the month at the ATMA. Firstly, we turned two years old on 29th September 2012. We received Mr. David Keller,

CMT – President of the Market Technicians Association, Inc. to be a key speaker on 6th October 2012 in partnership with the BSE

Brokers’ Forum at the BSE International Convention Hall. Shri Ramesh Abhishek, IAS – Chairman Forward Markets Commission

inaugurated the new office of the ATMA situated on the first floor of the BSE Rotunda Building, right next to what was earlier the BSE Trading Hall and now the

BSE International Convention Hall. Shri Abhishek inaugurated the world’s first E-library, the R N Elliott ATMA E-library of Technical Analysis. We had the good

fortune of Mr. Robert Prechter, Jr. deliver a memorial address on this occasion. Shri Vibhav Kapoor, Group Chief Investment Officer, IL&FS delivered a

remarkable Keynote Address. The chain of actions produced some structural strengths of the ATMA. Our Executive Team, lead by Namrata Thakur has

installed a certain degree of conviction in my faith that ATMA is on its course to become the world’s largest, most credible and dependable organization of its

kind. We discovered twenty six new student members, who are students of the BSE Training Institute undertaking an MBA in Financial Markets who became

the proverbial vertebral column supporting the spine that the ATMA Executive Team has come to be for the organization.

We did formally announce at this event the availability of ATMA services across Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka too. Given our regional presence now, a re-

design of our logo is on the cards, amongst many things. Some significant impact special initiatives for women and students are underway. We will announce

those shortly.

Finally, for now, let me share my immense excitement at the opportunity I have to speak for the first time in two years at a Mumbai Monthly Educational

Meeting. I look forward to meeting as many of our members on the 24th November 2012.

Sincerely,

Sushil Kedia

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4 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012

EDITOR’S NOTE

This month’s issue contains a summary of the seminar held on 6th October, 2012 where the Association of Technical Market Analysts

jointly with the BSE Brokers’ Forum and the Market Technicians Association, Inc hosted the MTA President Mr. David Keller at the BSE

Convention Hall. The event also marked the inauguration of new premises of ATMA at the BSE Building and the much awaited

inauguration of the world’s first E-Library of Technical Analysis at the hands of Shri Ramesh Abhishek, IAS – Chairman, Forward Markets

Commission, India.

Further in the issue -

Gunjan Duaa, CMT describes the Heikin-Ashi – a Japanese Technique based on the candlestick theory. He elaborates on this with the help of calculations and

its usage in trading.

The Camarilla Trading System was introduced by Dr. Bhooshan Shanbhag in the August issue. He explains this system with additional inputs.

In continuing the thread on Spread Trading from the previous issues, Andy Jordan further explains the method of finding the right trades using Futures Spread

Trading.

Kora Reddy back-tests Gap Trading strategies further in ‘Testy Bytes’

Somnath M reviews ‘The Mind of Wall Street’ by Leon Levy and Eugene Linden.

Please let us know what you are doing and allow us to share your application of the tools of technical analysis to the readers of ATMASphere by sending an

email to [email protected]. You can subscribe to ATMASphere completely free by clicking here.

Sincerely,

Meghana V Malkan

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OCTOBER 2012 ATMASPHERE | 5

HEIKIN-ASHI: THE TRENDING CANDLE

BY GUNJAN DUAA

The most widely used Quote in the financial markets all around the world is

“Trend is My Friend”. This Quote is very much true but to find the trend is I

think is the most difficult of all. So, we can add that “Trend is my friend, If It

can be found”

Most profits (and losses) are generated when markets are trending.

Japanese Candlestick Technique is widely used by many traders to help them

locate trend amid erratic market volatility. Heikin-Ashi is a Japanese

Technique based on the candle stick theory but taking it to a higher level for

trend determination, so in a way we can call it a Better Candlestick.

The Heikin-Ashi technique means the “Average Bar” in Japanese used in

conjunction with candlestick charts to improve the isolation of trends and to

predict future prices.

Heiken means average and ashi means pace, taken together Heikin ashi

represents the average pace of prices. Heikin-Ashi candlesticks are not used

like normal candlesticks. Instead of finding reversals on a single or a

confluence basis we use them for identifying trending periods, potential

reversal points and classic technical analysis patterns.

Calculation of Modified Bars.

Normal candlestick charts are composed of a series of open-high-low-close

(OHLC) bars set apart by a time series. The Heikin-Ashi technique uses a

modified formula:

1. The Heikin-Ashi Close is simply an average of the open, high, low and close

for the current period.

HA-Close = (Open(0) + High(0) + Low(0) + Close(0)) / 4

2. The Heikin-Ashi Open is the average of the prior Heikin-Ashi candlestick

open plus the close of the prior Heikin-Ashi candlestick.

HA-Open = (HA-Open(-1) + HA-Close(-1)) / 2

3. The Heikin-Ashi High is the maximum of three data points: the current

period's high, the current Heikin-Ashi candlestick open or the current Heikin-

Ashi candlestick close.

HA-High = Maximum of the High(0), HA-Open(0) or HA-Close(0)

4. The Heikin-Ashi low is the minimum of three data points: the current

period's low, the current Heikin-Ashi candlestick open or the current Heikin-

Ashi candlestick close.

HA-Low = Minimum of the Low(0), HA-Open(0) or HA-Close(0)

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6 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012

Signals

Green Candle with no lower shadow indicates Uptrend: hold Long Positions

When the candles are green one can add long positions and should not go

short.

A candle with upper and lower shadows, the one which looks like a doji

indicates a trend change. Aggressive traders can take a trade opposite to the

trend while others can wait till the change of trend

Red Colored candles indicate a downtrend

When the candle is colored one can go short and add positions

Red Colored candles which have no higher shadows indicate a strong

downtrend

The Chart Attached above shows the Difference between Heikin-Ashi (Upper

Chart) and the normal Candlestick (Lower Chart). In the Heikin-Ashi, we see

that the candle with no shadows have a strong trend. The candles with no

upper shadows have strong downtrend and the candles with no lower

shadows have a good uptrend.

Heikin-Ashi as explained is the average candle so we can see a big red candle

and a hanging man gives a Doji candle, which is the right candle because

after a big red day and then a hanging man really means that the sellers and

buyers are not sure.

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OCTOBER 2012 ATMASPHERE | 7

How to use Heikin-Ashi chart in your trades?

In the Above chart we can see that classical patterns can be used with the

Heikin-Ashi for finding the trades, uptrend and downtrend can be know by

the candles without shadow but when the candles are Doji or have more

shadow space than the body there if we find classical patterns like Triangles,

flags or channels, those can be traded on a price breakout above the highest

or below the lowest point of the pattern. In the chart i have taken Fibonacci

of the price high and low, market respected that and the trend changed from

there.

In the Chart I have market points where the Doji candle has reversed the

trend (Point 1 to Point 6), at each of this point after the trend a Doji has

taken shape, below that i have added Stochastic at the Doji point stochastic

has given a reversal as well, so it is a simple trading system which one can

use for trend determination.

Gunjan Duaa, a graduate in commerce and a CMT, is a

proprietary trader. He develops his own trading systems

combining Technical analysis, Quantitative analysis and

Behavioral Finance techniques.

He writes for many websites and takes active interest in

teaching people about Technical analysis and behavior of crowds at

different market scenarios.

Want to feature in ATMASphere which is

perhaps one of the largest circulated Technical

Analysis Newsletters of its kind, in the whole

world? Here is your chance.

(Demo space for Advertisement)

Size: 18.5 cms (height) x 12.6 cms (width)

Block a similar advertising space for 6 months at 30,000

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obtained for 6 months & 12 months at 60,000 INR and

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Page 8: CONTENTS · 2 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012 CONTENTS Letter from the President - Page 3 Editor’s Note - Page 4 Heikin-Ashi by Gunjan Duaa - Page 5

8 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012

TECHNICAL RESEARCH AT FIDELITY:

BEHIND THE SCENES

SUMMARIZED BY MEGHANA V MALKAN, CMT

The Association of Technical Market Analysts jointly with the BSE Brokers’

Forum and the Market Technicians Association, Inc organised an event on 6th

October, 2012 at the BSE Trading Hall.

This event would be remembered for decades to come, not only in the

history of ATMA but also in that of the Technical Analysis community. Mr.

Ramesh Abhishek, IAS - Chairman, Forward Markets Commission presided

as the Chief Guest at the Event. More than 350 members from the financial

markets community graced the occasion.

Following are the momentous episodes that transpired on this glorious day –

1. The World's First E-library of Technical Analysis – The Association is in

the process of building the world’s first E-library on Technical Analysis

which has been named “The R N Elliott ATMA E-library”. The same was

solemnised through an E-inauguration by Robert Prechter. Mr Prechter

was present live from Chicago to address the gathering, beaming on the

jumbo screens of the BSE Trading Hall. The euphoria amongst the crowd

was evident.

2. Inauguration of the New ATMA Office – The Association, less than two

years young, proudly inaugurated its new office - a bigger, better and

more efficient premises - right at the BSE Building itself, right on the

same floor and right next door to the Trading Hall! It was indeed a

moment of deep gratification.

3. Session by Mr David Keller, President of MTA - David Keller, CMT,

President of MTA spoke the whole day at the event on Technical

Research at Fidelity. Mr. Keller explained the modus operandi of

research at Fidelity, showing across some of the photographs of the

Fidelity chart room. He discussed the kinds of indicators and charts used

by them for analysis and explained different charts in Indian and global

markets. In the concluding part, he spoke on the qualities that go into

making a successful trader.

The seminar then concluded with a highly interactive Question & Answer

session.

The photographs of the event can be viewed by clicking here.

David Keller, CMT, is a Managing Director of Research

for Fidelity Investments in Boston. He manages the

Technical Analysis team at Fidelity Management and

Research, as well as the legendary Fidelity Chart Room.

He is currently serving as President of the Market

Technicians Association and a Director of the MTA

Educational Foundation.

David Keller, CMT was formerly a Technical Analysis Application Specialist

with Bloomberg L.P. in New York, and was a regular contributor to

Bloomberg Markets magazine. He is the editor of the book "Breakthroughs

Page 9: CONTENTS · 2 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012 CONTENTS Letter from the President - Page 3 Editor’s Note - Page 4 Heikin-Ashi by Gunjan Duaa - Page 5

OCTOBER 2012 ATMASPHERE | 9

in Technical Analysis: New Thinking from the World's Top Minds",

published August 2007 by Bloomberg Press.

Meghana V Malkan, a graduate in Law and a CMT, trains

and coaches professional traders. She is the co-founder

of Malkansview (http://www.malkansview.com) - an

Institute which conducts training programmes on

Technical Analysis and Behavioural Finance. She is a proprietary trader

across asset classes.

Page 10: CONTENTS · 2 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012 CONTENTS Letter from the President - Page 3 Editor’s Note - Page 4 Heikin-Ashi by Gunjan Duaa - Page 5

10 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012

The Dream... has come True! Almost!

World's FIRST E-Library of Technical Analysis

; |

, ||

Giving food to a hungry person is indeed a great donation, but the

greatest donation of all is to give a person education. Food gives but a

momentary satisfaction whereas education empowers the person for his

entire life.

Each ATMA Member is at this point going to be able to give as much to each

other as each is going to be receiving in course.

The Dream, that is how I have always called it for myself, the establishment

of an E-Library that contains not just research papers and manuscripts but

commercially published good books on subject areas related to us, is now

within reach. Almost there..! Yes! Books on Technical Analysis, Trading

Strategies, Quantitative Finance, Back-testing, Algorithmic Trading,

Investment Psychology, Hedge Funds, Behavioral Finance & lots more!

Even before succeeding at launching ATMA, I have aspired with my blood,

flesh and soul to be able to bring up this concept. In fact, right at the day of

our launch we inaugurated an E-library that contains many decades of

research papers and journals! But the commercially published books could

not be integrated so far and a true professional self-service e-library has

had to wait. With painstaking work some of us scrounged and searched

endless websites, made endless calls liaisioning and networking with some

of the best publishers across the globe trying impressing upon them India is

a safe country and we are as ethical as any other professional enterprise in

any other corner of the world to be allowed to host a digital library of books

- both e-books as well as audio books.

Endless evaluations of legal structures,

payment formalities, technologies and this

sweat and toil of nearly 20 months is now

fructifying! The world's most reputed,

largest and oldest vendor of E-libraries has

considered positively all our pitching and

discussing and despite the fact that we may

be there smallest customer today agreed to

mail over a contract to us!

This vendor has digitized the top 10000 libraries around the world! And yes,

your very ATMA is going to be now served by this very vendor! Not only are

we going to buy and stock up E-books and audio books we will be in time

able to generate funds to have training videos in this online library.

The work ahead, for all of us..

Make out a list of the top 20 books you wish to see

on this library and if you wish to make the list of top

20 books you have read as a Technical Analyst, trader

or a markets person make that too! Make a list of top

authors if full names of books don’t come to mind

immediately. Make your wish lists! Mail them to

[email protected] & they will

automatically be forwarded to all volunteers working

with me and Gunjan Dua on this DREAM PROJECT.

Write out your lists

Email to TEAM

Let team compile

Team draws map

Evolutionary Goal

Charity begins at

home and do the

now! Let

your opinion, ideas,

desires be known.

The Challenges ahead..!

To build a highly useful collection of e-books that make our money work well for us in

this massive ongoing investment, we have to carefully select every good book

available and yet also avoid frivolous or very esoteric purchases. Building a great

library is an evolutionary goal. Come participate in this path-breaking initiative that

will change the orbit of our Association, forever. Well, there may not be enough

money, enough books, enough types of books, enough of this or enough of that, yet

what you will along with patience over time to live through when there will be

enough of everything, have one thing now which will never come again: be the

architects of the world's first e-library on Technical Analysis.

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OCTOBER 2012 ATMASPHERE | 11

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12 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012

THE CAMARILLA TRADING SYSTEM - PART 2

BY DR. BHOOSHAN SHANBHAG

In the last issue of Atmasphere (August 2012) we have seen the Camarilla

Trading System and its applications. However, the system does not end here.

It is true that the system is basically a pivot-point type system and is mainly

designed for intra-day trades. However, it can also be applied on breakouts.

We have seen in the earlier article (Atmasphere, August 2012) that the

system gives four support and four resistance levels. However, if the

calculations are extended further, then we also get the fifth level on either

side of the stock closing price of yesterday. These levels are above H4 or

Below L5, and decide the breakout level on higher and lower side

respectively. If markets manage to cross the H4 or L4 levels, which are stop

loss levels for short and long positions respectively, then H5 and L5 levels

become active. If these levels are getting crossed, or preferably, if the market

opens outside these levels, then it indicates upside and downside breakout

respectively. That is, if market opens above H5, go long keeping a stop below

H3 or if it opens below L5, then go short keeping a stop above L3 levels. If

market retraces to H4 or L4 levels, positions should be added with Stop Loss

below H3 or above L3 respectively.

Let us see an example. Reliance Industries (August Futures) on 22nd August

had following levels- High = 818.50, Low = 809.10, Close = 811.40. The 10

Camarilla levels that can be calculated at the end of the day are –

Now the next day, i.e. on 23th august, Reliance Industries August Futures

opened just below H3, at 813.75. This indicates going short with stop loss

beyond H4 = 816.57. The stock first reached L3, the profit booking level =

808.80. However, the fall continued beyond L5 (801.06) and the stock made

a low of 791, and closed at 797, which is below L5 indicating breakout on the

lower side (breakdown). On the next day, 24th August the fall continued and

the Camarilla levels for 24th august were-

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OCTOBER 2012 ATMASPHERE | 13

The actual lowest levels for 24th August were 781.85, which was below L4

(784.90) but above L5 (772.50) for the day, warranting profit booking, which

was any way expected as L3 (791.10) was reached for the day.

Minute Chart of Reliance Industries Futures (August 2012)

If we put a glance at the minute chart of RIL (Futures) for the two days, the

intraday movement of the contract becomes clear.

Thrice in the last one month, reliance gave breakout signal, twice on up side

and once on lower side, and each of these positions would have been

profitable. Moreover, on almost all the days, levels L3 as well as H3 were

reached and loss booking was rarely observed. Most of the times, the loss

booking was required only when it was followed by a breakout (crossing L5

or H5 levels) on the same day. This means, the trader would have booked

profit first from H3 to L3 (or vice versa) then taken a counter position, which

would stop out at H4 or L4, still keeping the trader in profits for the day if

both the positions are religiously taken on Camarilla calculations.

In Nifty and Bank Nifty also we get the similar trend on the breakout and if

we check the price moves over the last one month, similar trend is observed.

However, Bank Nifty shows more gap-up-gap down openings and the

positional trades have a lower success rate in Bank Nifty. I have also tried the

system on MCX silver contracts and it works superbly. MCX Gold has shown

relatively lower volatility in the last month and though the system is

applicable successfully to gold as well, the profit levels are relatively low,

mainly due to low volatility in the underlying in this period.

How should one exactly take the positions? On a day calculate the camarilla

levels based on previous day’s high, low and close. Trader can place six

orders in all-

1. Sell at or slightly below H3 – This level would initiate short or book

profit in long.

2. Buy above H4 for stop loss in short positions created below H3.

3. Long above H5 for breakout longs.

4. Buy at or slightly above L3 for book profit in short created at H3. This

level can be used for creating intraday longs as well.

5. Stop loss at L4 should stock fall after creating long at L3

6. Sell below L5 in the event of breakdown.

If a trader can be present near the trading terminal, then only 2,3,4 and 5 can

be placed. Order 2 should be deleted if first 3 is triggered followed by 4.

Similarly order 5 should be deleted if 4 is hit first followed by 3. It was

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14 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012

observed that the positions taken after first 30 minutes of market

stabilisation gave better success rate than those taken immediately on

opening.

Positions contrary to existing trends could be avoided if the trader wishes so

by placing only the orders in the direction of the ongoing trend and placing

book profit orders only after the position is created initially. In my opinion,

the technique is a very good scalping technique and can be practised in

stocks, indices as well as commodities that have good volumes.

Dr. Bhooshan Shanbhag (M.Sc. Ph.D.) has been

associated with financial markets since 1993. Holding a

Ph. D. from the University of Mumbai, he has a strong

research background and has three research papers in

international journals to his credit. He is active in

teaching Technical Analysis and specializes in trading derivatives. He is on

the panel of experts for myiris.com and is also a regular writer for

investment weekly Informed Investor for over three years.

Page 15: CONTENTS · 2 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012 CONTENTS Letter from the President - Page 3 Editor’s Note - Page 4 Heikin-Ashi by Gunjan Duaa - Page 5

OCTOBER 2012 ATMASPHERE | 15

ATMA Social Awards

Winning is so important, for all us,

every day. Yet a winning attitude is

ever more important throughout our

lives. How about a win-win. You win,

your fraternity wins and everyone

can win? Well that’s exactly what is

happening with the ATMA Social

Rewards...

ATMA Social Rewards

This simple idea is in full swing now.

You will notice the Activities in

ATMA Social Rewards information

box on the www.atma-india.net on

almost every page and yes on the

home page itself too. Just click on

the button in there and start

winning. Simple as that. A Reward is

the award and the best thing is you

can choose which one....

Competition is good…

More so when one is competing in

a win win enterprise such as the

ATMA Social Rewards.

You can notice the points earned

by you and others in the

Leaderboard. You can earn points

every day.

Growing Catalogue...

Redeeming of points as per the

catalogue to claim valuable gifts

and prizes is simple. Try it, today.

Wide variety of useful materials to win, any day, any time...

So many good things to win. Ramki Ramkrishnan, an ATMA trustee has kindly

added five copies of his best-seller E-book, the Five Waves to Financial

Freedom recently for all to win. Kora Reddy has promised to the catalogue

five copies of personalized in your name, autographed copies of his book on

Quantitative Trading too. More and more is coming. Polish your social media

skills and do visit the website of an organization you own, daily. Win-Win....

yes you can win.

The MyATMA private network on our website is in full swing too. Have you

been not posting things on the groups you have joined there, have you not

been sharing videos or other content on your Facebook type walls, have you

not been inviting friends and using the Personal Messaging feature there....

oh I see, you don’t see how the points on MyATMA can be encashed....

hmmm... that is going to be coming too soon. Keep polishing your social

networking skills on MyATMA and keep accumulating those points, they will

be usable as a very very private and special MyATMA Rewards also start,

which only our members can participate in. Oh yes, the karma points on the

Discussion Forum too will be encashable in some grand scheme. ATMA is a

winning idea and a win-win with each of its owner the larger design of things

in the pipeline.

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16 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012

TESTY BYTES

BY KORA REDDY Gap Trading Strategies - II

Definitions

1) A “Full Gap Up” is defined as one when the opening price of a day is

higher than the previous day’s high price.

2) A “Gap Up” is one when a day’s opening price is higher than the previous

day’s close, but not higher than the previous day’s high.

3) A “Full Gap Down” is defined as one when the opening price of a day is

lower than the previous day’s low price.

4) A “Gap Down ” is one when a day’s opening price is lower than the

previous day’s close, but not lower than the previous day’s low.

After examining the plain gaps and their strategy performance, in this issue

I’ll consider the prior day’s closing direction to build few trading strategies

and examine how they performed historically.

Strategy 5a: Enter at Open upon a Full Gap Up open and exit at Close, after

the previous day’s close is up

Trading strategy rules

1) Sensex opens with a “Full gap up open”, Open[0]>High[1] &

2) Previous trading day’s close is up , Close[1]>Close[2]

3) Entry at Open price

4) Exit at Close price same day

5) Profitable trading action based on the historical backtest

performance - SHORT

Below is the trading strategy performance summary, since 1st Jan 2000 till

16th Oct 2012.

Trading Strategy Performance Summary Report

Total net profit 6017.42 Trading signal as per strategy

SHORT

Gross profit 37,725 Gross loss -31,708

Profit factor 1.19 Outlier adjusted profit factor

1.16

Total number of trades 663 Percept profitable 52

Number of winning trades 344 Number of losing trades

319

Average profit per trade 9.08 Average profit per trade %

0.11

Median trade -2.91 Median trade % -0.04

Average winning trade 109.67 Average losing trade -99.4

Average winning trade % 1.1 Avg losing trade % -0.96

Largest winning trade 918.72 Largest losing trade -804.82

Largest winning trade % 8.04 Largest losing trade % -5.97

Ratio average win/ average loss

1.14 Ratio average win/ average loss %

1.14

Max consecutive winners 11 Max consecutive losers

9

Max drawdown Rs. -

1,12,466 Max drawdown % -16

Initial Account Rs.

10,00,000 Return on Account % 60.17

Number of years analysed 13 Pessimistic Rate of Return %

22.08

Percentage winning years 54% CAGR % 3.76

Luck Factor 7.32 Recovery Factor 5.35

Sharpe Ratio 0.32 T-Test -1.91

copyright http://stocksiq.in

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OCTOBER 2012 ATMASPHERE | 17

PS: gross profit /loss, net profit is calculated on Sensex points based, whereas

max drawdown is calculated on the assumption of buying 100 units of

Sensex.

Conclusion: the strategy doesn’t have a trading edge, as highlighted in bold

by the Outlier adjusted profit factor and other key metrics in a trading

performance summary report.

Strategy 5b: Enter at Open upon a Full Gap Up open and exit at Close, after

the previous day’s close is down

Trading strategy rules

1) Sensex opens with a “Full gap up open”, Open[0]>High[1] &

2) Previous trading day’s close is down , Close[1]<Close[2]

3) Entry at Open price

4) Exit at Close price same day

5) Profitable trading action based on the historical backtest

performance – SHORT

Given on the next page is the trading strategy performance summary, since

1st Jan 2000 till 16th Oct 2012.

Trading Strategy Performance Summary Report

Total net profit 159.42 Trading signal as per strategy

SHORT

Gross profit 6,505 Gross loss -6,345

Profit factor 1.03 Outlier adjusted profit factor

0.95

Total number of trades 88 Percent profitable 51

Number of winning trades 45 Number of losing trades 43

Average profit per trade 1.81 Average profit per trade % 0.09

Median trade -0.65 Median trade % -0.02

Average winning trade 144.54 Average losing trade -

147.56

Average winning trade % 1.39 Average losing trade % -1.27

Largest winning trade 478.11 Largest losing trade -

440.42

Largest winning trade % 5.08 Largest losing trade % -4.24

Ratio average win/ average loss

1.09 Ratio average win/ average loss %

1.09

Max consecutive winners 9 Max consecutive losers 7

Max drawdown Rs. -

1,51,505 Max drawdown % -15.58

Initial Account Rs.

10,00,000 Return on Account % 1.59

Number of years analyzed 13 Pessimistic Rate of Return %

-17.78

Percentage winning years 46% CAGR % 0.12

Luck Factor 3.65 Recovery Factor 0.11

Sharpe Ratio 0.08 T-Test -0.48

Copyright http://stocksiq.in

Conclusion: do not think of fading ( that is taking in the opposite direction of

the open) the full gap up’s posted after a down day , statistically is not

significant as seen by the T-test , over sample size of 88 trades in last 12+

years

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18 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012

Strategy 6a: Enter at Open upon a Full Gap down Open and exit at Close,

after the previous day’s close is up

Trading strategy rules

1) Sensex opens with a “Full gap down open”, Open[0]<Low[1] &

2) Previous trading day’s close is up , Close[1]>Close[2]

3) Entry at Open price

4) Exit at Close price same day

5) Profitable trading action based on the historical backtest

performance - SHORT

Below is the trading strategy performance summary, since 1st Jan 2000 till

16th Oct 2012.

Trading Strategy Performance Summary Report

Total net profit 2267.81 Trading signal as per strategy

SHORT

Gross profit 6,452 Gross loss -4,184

Profit factor 1.54 Outlier adjusted profit factor

1.42

Total number of trades 82 Percept profitable 57

Number of winning trades 47 Number of losing trades 35

Average profit per trade 27.66 Average profit per trade %

0.15

Median trade -15.6 Median trade % -0.31

Average winning trade 137.27 Average losing trade -

119.53

Average winning trade % 1.27 Average losing trade % -1.35

Largest winning trade 517.44 Largest losing trade -

592.43

Largest winning trade % 4.4 Largest losing trade % -4.46

Continued next page…

…Continued from previous page

Ratio average win/ average loss

0.87

Ratio average win/ average loss %

0.94

Max consecutive winners 5 Max consecutive losers 4

Max drawdown Rs. -

87,033 Max drawdown % -7.07

Initial Account Rs.

10,00,000 Return on Account % 22.68

Number of years analysed 13 Pessimistic Rate of Return %

6.2

Percentage winning years 62% CAGR % 1.61

Luck Factor 3.48 Recovery Factor 2.61

Sharpe Ratio 0.28 T-Test -0.8

copyright http://stocksiq.in

Strategy 6b: Enter at Open upon a Full Gap down Open and exit at Close,

after the previous day’s close is down

Trading strategy rules

1) Sensex opens with a “Full gap down open”, Open[0]<Low[1] &

2) Previous trading day’s close is down , Close[1]<Close[2]

3) Entry at Open price

4) Exit at Close price same day

5) Profitable trading action based on the historical backtest

performance – LONG

Below is the trading strategy performance summary, since 1st Jan 2000 till

16th Oct 2012.

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OCTOBER 2012 ATMASPHERE | 19

Trading Strategy Performance Summary Report

Total net profit 400.22 Trading signal as per strategy

LONG

Gross profit 18,634 Gross loss -18,234

Profit factor 1.02 Outlier adjusted profit factor

0.98

Total number of trades 286 Percent profitable 51

Number of winning trades 146 Number of losing trades 140

Average profit per trade 1.4 Average profit per trade %

0.07

Median trade 5.33 Median trade % 0.09

Average winning trade 127.63 Average losing trade -130.24

Average winning trade % 1.38 Average losing trade % -1.29

Largest winning trade 682.25 Largest losing trade -

1314.22

Largest winning trade % 5.83 Largest losing trade % -10.27

Ratio average win/ average loss

0.52 Ratio average win/ average loss %

1.07

Max consecutive winners 11 Max consecutive losers 6

Max drawdown Rs. -

3,02,588 Max drawdown % -25.7

Initial Account Rs.

10,00,000 Return on Account % 4

Number of years analysed 13 Pessimistic Rate of Return %

-26.83

Percentage winning years 46% CAGR % 0.31

Luck Factor 4.23 Recovery Factor 0.13

Sharpe Ratio 0.17 T-Test 0.67

copyright http://stocksiq.in

Conclusion: Full gap down openings along with previous trading day’s

direction of close do not provide any significant trading edge either to go

long or to short as shown by the above performance summary reports.

Strategy 7a: Enter at Open upon a Gap Up and exit at Close after the

previous day’s close is up

Trading strategy rules

1) Sensex opens with a “gap up open”

Open[0]>Close[1]&Open[0]<High[1]

2) Previous trading day’s close is up , Close[1]>Close[2]

3) Entry at Open price

4) Exit at Close price same day

5) Profitable trading action based on the historical backtest

performance – SHORT

Below is the trading strategy performance summary, since 1st Jan 2006 till

21st Sep 2012.

Trading Strategy Performance Summary Report

Total net profit 1525.61 Trading signal as per strategy

SHORT

Gross profit 20,251 Gross loss -

18,725

Profit factor 1.08 Outlier adjusted profit factor

1.04

Total number of trades 290 Percent profitable 50

Number of winning trades

145 Number of losing trades 145

Average profit per trade 5.26 Average profit per trade %

0.03

Median trade -0.05 Median trade % 0

Average winning trade 139.66 Average losing trade -

129.14

Average winning trade %

0.91 Average losing trade % -0.85

Continued next page…

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20 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012

…Continued from previous page

Largest winning trade 699.24 Largest losing trade -

507.15

Largest winning trade % 3.9 Largest losing trade % -5.13

Ratio average win/ average loss

1.38 Ratio average win/ average loss %

1.06

Max consecutive winners

9 Max consecutive losers 7

Max drawdown Rs. -

1,04,451 Max drawdown % -22.01

Initial Account Rs.

10,00,000 Return on Account % 15.26

Number of years analysed

7 Pessimistic Rate of Return %

-17.11

Percentage winning years

71% CAGR % 2.11

Luck Factor 4.3 Recovery Factor 1.46

Sharpe Ratio 0.16 T-Test -0.39

copyright http://stocksiq.in

Strategy 7b: Enter at Open upon a Gap Up and exit at Close after the

previous day’s close is down

Trading strategy rules

1) Sensex opens with a “gap up open”

Open[0]>Close[1]&Open[0]<High[1]

2) Previous trading day’s close is down , Close[1]<Close[2]

3) Entry at Open price

4) Exit at Close price same day

5) Profitable trading action based on the historical backtest

performance – SHORT

Below is the trading strategy performance summary, since 1st Jan 2006 till

21st Sep 2012.

Trading Strategy Performance Summary Report

Total net profit 7448.58 Trading signal as per strategy

SHORT

Gross profit 39,652 Gross loss -

32,204

Profit factor 1.23 Outlier adjusted profit factor

1.21

Total number of trades 423 Percent profitable 51

Number of winning trades 216 Number of losing trades 207

Average profit per trade 17.61 Average profit per trade %

0.09

Median trade -6.07 Median trade % -0.04

Average winning trade 183.57 Average losing trade -

155.57

Average winning trade % 1.19 Average losing trade % -1.06

Largest winning trade 829.07 Largest losing trade -

857.66

Largest winning trade % 7.32 Largest losing trade % -4.9

Ratio average win/ average loss

0.97 Ratio average win/ average loss %

1.12

Max consecutive winners 7 Max consecutive losers 9

Max drawdown Rs. -

1,72,841 Max drawdown % -35.91

Initial Account Rs.

10,00,000 Return on Account % 74.49

Number of years analysed 7 Pessimistic Rate of Return %

25.12

Percentage winning years 71% CAGR % 8.55

Luck Factor 6.13 Recovery Factor 4.31

Sharpe Ratio 0.23 T-Test -1.22

copyright http://stocksiq.in

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OCTOBER 2012 ATMASPHERE | 21

Conclusion: Plain Gap up openings even after considering the previous

trading day’s direction of close do not provide any significant trading edge

either to go long or to short at open.

Strategy 8a: Enter at Open upon a Gap down and exit at Close after the

previous day’s close is up

Trading strategy rules

1) Sensex opens with a “gap down open”

Open[0]<Close[1]&Open[0]>Low[1]

2) Previous trading day’s close is up , Close[1]>Close[2]

3) Entry at Open price

4) Exit at Close price same day

5) Profitable trading action based on the historical backtest

performance – SHORT

Given in the next page is the trading strategy performance summary, since 1st

Jan 2006 till 21st Sep 2012.

Trading Strategy Performance Summary Report

Total net profit 5766.04 Trading signal as per strategy

SHORT

Gross profit 17,494 Gross loss -

11,728

Profit factor 1.49 Outlier adjusted profit factor

1.43

Total number of trades 202 Percent profitable 55

Number of winning trades

110 Number of losing trades 92

Average profit per trade 28.54 Average profit per trade %

0.19

Median trade -18.36 Median trade % -0.11

Average winning trade 159.03 Average losing trade -

127.48

Average winning trade %

1.07 Average losing trade % -0.88

Largest winning trade 772.55 Largest losing trade -

574.08

Largest winning trade % 6.35 Largest losing trade % -4.44

Ratio average win/ average loss

1.35 Ratio average win/ average loss %

1.22

Max consecutive winners

9 Max consecutive losers 5

Max drawdown Rs. -

96,099 Max drawdown % -9.47

Initial Account Rs.

10,00,000 Return on Account % 57.66

Number of years analysed

7 Pessimistic Rate of Return %

28.75

Percentage winning years

0% CAGR % 6.94

Luck Factor 5.92 Recovery Factor 6

Sharpe Ratio 0.89 T-Test -1.91

copyright http://stocksiq.in

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22 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012

Strategy 8b: Enter at Open upon a Gap down and exit at Close after the

previous day’s close is down

Trading strategy rules

1) Sensex opens with a “gap up open”

Open[0]<Close[1]&Open[0]>Low[1]

2) Previous trading day’s close is down , Close[1]<Close[2]

3) Entry at Open price

4) Exit at Close price same day

5) Profitable trading action based on the historical backtest

performance – SHORT

Below is the trading strategy performance summary, since 1st Jan 2006 till

21st Sep 2012.

Trading Strategy Performance Summary Report

Total net profit 2484.75 Trading signal as per strategy

SHORT

Gross profit 15,315 Gross loss -

12,831

Profit factor 1.19 Outlier adjusted profit factor

1.13

Total number of trades 151 Percent profitable 58

Number of winning trades

87 Number of losing trades 64

Average profit per trade 16.46 Average profit per trade %

0.08

Median trade -44.42 Median trade % -0.23

Average winning trade 176.04 Average losing trade -

200.48

Continued on next page…

…Continued from previous page

Average winning trade %

1.19 Average losing trade % -1.43

Largest winning trade 796.43 Largest losing trade -878

Largest winning trade % 4.57 Largest losing trade % -5.82

Ratio average win/ average loss

0.91 Ratio average win/ average loss %

0.83

Max consecutive winners

9 Max consecutive losers 4

Max drawdown Rs. -

1,70,741 Max drawdown % -19.8

Initial Account Rs.

10,00,000 Return on Account % 24.85

Number of years analysed

7 Pessimistic Rate of Return %

-7.61

Percentage winning years

29% CAGR % 3.37

Luck Factor 3.86 Recovery Factor 1.46

Sharpe Ratio 0.21 T-Test -0.53

copyright http://stocksiq.in

Conclusion: strategy 8a, that is going short at open and covering at close of

the trading day, after gap down opening when the previous trading day’s

close is up looks better off all the gap trading strategies tested so far, albeit

the profit expectation is a mere 0.2, which can cover the impact costs and

the brokerage costs. Let me present few tweaks by slicing the data with the

aid of moving averages in my next article.

You can also reach me at [email protected] with your queries on the trading

strategies presented and for any clarifications that you have.

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OCTOBER 2012 ATMASPHERE | 23

Kora Reddy is the author of the recently released

book High Profit Trading Patterns published by

Vision Books and is currently co-founder of a

quantitative trading portal (http://stocksiq.in) for

analyzing and back testing of listed stocks on the

Indian Stock Market.

Membership Renewal The Association of Technical Market Analysts always strives to evolve

its member services at all times. We look forward to continuing our

initiatives in the years to come and to serve you as members and

working with you as volunteers. We believe memberships of many of

our members would be due for a renewal.

To renew your membership, you can call the ATMA Office at +91-22-

2272 2862 and renew over the telephone with any of the ATMA Staff

members.

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24 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012

Free ATMA Twitter Hour Seminars are Back! Learning never stops! We do hear the duet "The Best Things in Life Are Free" between singers Luther Vandross and Janet Jackson! So

here it is, a totally unique learning experience that requires no registrations, no payments. Just get a Twitter identity for yourself,

follow @ATMAIndia on twitter and start tweeting your chart-links, our analysis, your recommendations for good readings, your

questions and your answers with the #MyATMA hash-tag. To find the contributions of other participants just search for tweets with

#MyATMA tag as well!

You are invited to the absolutely Free & fabulous learning experience at the Wednesday Evenings @ATMAIndia Twitter hours from 4.30 p.m. to 6.30 p.m.

Come by to discuss with the ATMA Members, expert ideas! No hassles for Registering, No forms to fill up! All you need is a

Twitter Account and just follow @ATMAIndia! That's all! Still don't have a twitter account? It takes you two minutes. Just go

to www.twitter.com and get one!

You know so much about Markets, Technical Analysis, Trading, Investing, Risk Management, Psychology, Coding, and

Strategy & yet always have felt the need to discuss it with like-minded folks at your convenience, at your pace without having

to travel and without having to spend a dime. Well Education like all the best things of life can be free and come in packets of

a size you find convenient, when you are willing to give as much as you take. Here’s then, the @ATMAIndia Twitter Hours.

Come on in & give & take!

We urge that all of us discourage spewing out market views. Everyone already has many! Those are best kept reserved for each of us to

trade with on our own. A Bull & Bear inevitably fight and its best to fight it out in the pits, not at an educational event. Discuss ideas,

strategies, concepts, techniques. The Goal is not to achieve a lunch for just today but to share recipes for a lifetime!

Many ATMA members will be sharing their expertise and answering these queries. All you need to do to follow the massive 2 hour long

conversation from so many people is to keep the profile page of @ATMAIndia opened once you are logged into twitter.

Yes, we do look forward to not only your queries but as much sharing of your own wisdom as you will do with fellow

Technicians! Please focus on sharing wisdom & STRICTLY AVOID selling or promoting yourself!

Yes, start following @ATMAIndia on Twitter & add to your and others ever-increasing knowledge repository of Investing,

Trading, Risk Management & of course Technical Analysis, every Wednesday through @ATMAIndia Wednesday Twitter Hour

meetings! Forward this message to any friends, colleagues or associates you feel are like-minded and can contribute as well

as benefit! Surely then, the ATMA look forward to meeting with you on Twitter every Wednesday Evening 4.30 to 6.30 pm!

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OCTOBER 2012 ATMASPHERE | 25

SPREAD TRADING - III

BY ANDY JORDAN

Futures Spread Trading - How do I find the "right" trades?

In approaching spread trading, many traders are overwhelmed by the

numerous possible spread trades available. Not only can a spread trader

trade one market against another, he can also trade different months of the

same commodity against each other, and even use ratios other than 1:1.

Even if he watches only a handful of commodity markets, he can end up with

100 or even more possible spreads to follow, so many beginning spread

traders just don't know where to start. In this article I present several ideas

on how to select the right spread trades.

Let's start with spread selection using fundamental research.

Fundamentals-oriented spread traders often concentrate on a specific group

of markets such as the grains or the meats. They have either more insight

into a specific market because of their own background (farmer or producer),

or they use fundamental research from third parties. While charts are used

mainly for the timing of the entry and exit, analyzing the supply and demand

situation is the main concern for a fundamentals-oriented trader for finding

the "direction" of a trade. A simple method for finding a good spread is by

searching for a market that is supposed to go up, and another related market

that is supposed to go down. But as we discussed in the different causes that

make a spread move (in Part II of this series), inter-market spreads (spreads

with each leg in a different market) are not the only way to find good

tradable spreads.

A technique often used by spread traders is to trade bull or bear spreads.

A bull spread is a spread in which the long side of the spread is the nearby

contract, and the short side is a more deferred month. Long a December

2012 Corn contract, and short a July 2013 Corn contract would be a typical

bull spread.

A bear spread is simply the opposite: going long the more deferred month,

and going short the nearby month.

The terminology of “bull” and “bear” spreads is derived from the bull and

bear market definitions of the underlying (outright) markets. The idea of a

bull spread is that in a rising market the nearby months will move up more

strongly than the deferred months, and therefore the spread is expected to

move to the up-side. In a bear market, a trader would expect the opposite.

The nearby months are expected to fall faster than the deferred months.

Therefore, a bear spread would be the right choice.

Here’s an example: Let's say that, because of fundamental research

indicating that a drought might move Corn prices higher, a trader decides to

go long Corn, but would like to set up the trading idea with spreads. Because

the trader is bullish on corn, he can select several combinations: Corn Dec.

2012 - Corn March 2013, or Corn Dec. 2012 - Corn July 2013. Both are bull

spreads. Because of better liquidity, he would probably choose the Dec. - July

combination. The chart below shows us the Corn Dec. 2012 - Corn July 2013

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26 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012

spread in mid-June of 2012. As we can see on the chart, during the past few

months the spread has been trading mainly sideways.

Above is a chart of the spread. On the same day, December 2012 Corn

outright chart looked as follows:

We notice the possible support at around 510 (gray line on the chart) as well

as at around -28 and -31 on the spread chart. Motivated by the fundamental

research that Corn might move higher, a trader might want to wait for a

breakout to the up-side before entering the trade. A few days later we had

the following picture:

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OCTOBER 2012 ATMASPHERE | 27

Both December 2012 Corn and the spread have broken out to the up-side. It

might be time to enter the trade.

After a couple of months, we see the following charts:

As we can see, both the bull market trade in corn and the bull spread trade

would have worked out just fine. The question then is why would a trader

choose the spread trade over simply going long Corn?

The answer is that a trader might want to take some volatility out of the

trade, which results in greater flexibility with risk. While December 2012

Corn was moving about $1,200 per day during the breakout, the spread

moved only about $200 per day during the same time.

Traders with small accounts would especially prefer the spread over the

outright trade due to the smaller risk. Less risk allows them to trade more

contracts with greater flexibility.

But what if a trader wants "more action"? What if he wants more volatility?

Then he simply selects wider legs for the spread. He might choose the Dec.

2012 Corn - Dec. 2013 Corn to immediately get more volatility. Instead of a

$200 move per day on the Dec. - July combination, he would get $400 on the

Dec. - Dec. combination, thereby increasing volatility.

General speaking, a spread trader is often able to reduce or increase the

volatility of the trades which results in being able to reduce or increase the

risk he wants (or is able to take). He can match the volatility for the trade to

his own risk tolerance.

Bull and Bear spreads are, of course, only one of the ways a fundamental-

oriented trader might want to set up the trades. Depending on the

complexity of their research, they often set up much more complicated

spreads such as:

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28 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012

Long 1 Dec. 2012 Corn, short 2 July 2013 Corn, and long 1 Dec. 2013 Corn.

They often combine the different trading months of a market into one spread

that reflects more of the demand and supply situation they expect in the

future. The ability to do this is just one more reason why a trader may choose

to trade a spread instead of making the trade in the outrights. But there are

even more reasons to choose trading spreads instead of trading the

outrights:

Spreads tend to trend longer than the underlying futures. Spreads

move because of real fundamental information. They are less

affected by the market manipulation traders experience in the

underlying. Spreads often trend when the outright futures move

sideways.

Spreads do not require as much liquidity as a straight trade in the

underlying commodity.

Because of low margins, spreads offer more efficient use of available

capital;

Spreads benefit from correlation and seasonality.

In Part IV of this series, we will talk about how to use "seasonality" in spread

trading. While seasonality in the market comes mainly from the supply and

demand cycles of a trading year, I am not sure if I would put seasonality into

the fundamental corner because it is mainly a technical calculation done by

computers. In my opinion, it is somewhere between fundamental and

technical trading.

Andy Jordan was born in 1965 in Germany, but is

currently living in the Caribbean. He studied

mathematics and business administration in

Regensburg and Hagen, and holds a PhD in

mathematics. Even though Andy has demonstrated in

several trading journals that he is able to day trade

today's markets, spread trading has always been his favorite. In addition to

his spread trading Andy is the Managing Editor of Traders Notebook. He

also conducts an extensive mentoring program for spread traders, and he is

the developer and instructor of the entire mentoring program. You can

reach him at [email protected] & visit his website

http://www.tradingeducators.com

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OCTOBER 2012 ATMASPHERE | 29

Most important priority: Career Development

of ATMA Members

Why are we after all part of this grand

exercise called the ATMA, the Association

of Technical Market Analysts?

To be excellent, to be renowned for our pedigree embellished with great knowledge and ethical conduct, to be sound in our approach at what we do in our profession, to be trusted, to be reliable, to be empowered with an all encompassing feeling of being organized together as a big team?

Yes, perhaps all of this is true! Yet, all of this is aimed at one key goal and all of these goals will be fulfilled ONLY if each and every ATMA’ite is empowered with the abilities, skills and attitudes to succeed at the career each has chosen!

Right at the inception this vision was incorporated into the design of our

website. A powerful JOBS-BOARD exists where not only our members can

build their fully visible CVs they can also build additional CVs with

anonymous values in key fields such as name of current employer etc. etc.

All of us must TORTURE TEST this tool, now and as many problems or

errors or deficiencies are found must be noted and written to

[email protected]. Have patience while you critique the

deficiencies! Don’t stop at just pointing out what is lacking, but have the

tenacity to stretch your thinking into proposing a solution. Difference

between criticism and leadership is that leaders identify what is missing

and figure out how to fix it! Own ATMA now! Some few of us at the fight

are getting bored of being its solitary owners.

Now, the more important point:

Those amongst the ATMA membership who have a vision, a strategic string

of thoughts in place, who have had their brush with changing several jobs

and who would know how the inner world of HRM might be working, please

polish your shoes and step forward your best foot!

I have to build on an EMERGENCY basis a POWERFUL, INDEPENDENT &

FUNCTIONAL Career Development Committee

Why can’t we host some webinars inviting Social Media Gurus who can teach

ATMA members how to promote themselves in a dignified way on Twitter,

Facebook, LinkedIn, Klout, Google Plus? Why can’t we bring in some Partner of

a global recruitment firm to teach our younger ATMA members how to write

good CVs and cover letters and how to network to be on the frontline for

discovering the best jobs?

Go take a look at the Career Development Centre on the website of our parent organization the http://www.mta.org

I need a team of strong-willed, independent minded mad men and women who have a solitary goal: beat Sushil Kedia & his early team & create an admirable Career Development Centre which is at least at par with the MTA and perhaps way more!!

Get going ATMA! Long way to go and yes the world must yield the place to us

the Technical Analysts that we deserve!

Does ATMA belong to you? If not, who does it belong to?!

Then within the Job-board is a feature for incorporating the profiles of your

companies with a nice write up and logo you can make yourself a featured

employer on this powerful tool that this mad 43 year old man could envision

even at inception when he had no ideas of how a website is built. If I can

stretch my brain and body so far, what stops you mightier younger, energetic

smarter folks to beat me blue and black?

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30 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012

THE MIND OF WALL STREET - BOOK

REVIEW

REVIEWED BY SOMNATH M

A legendary financier on the perils of greed

and the mysteries of the market

By LEON LEVY with EUGENE LINDEN

Behaviour is patterned. Beginning with this

premise, a veteran of over fifty years on Wall

Street, Leon Levy has pioneered many of the

innovations and investment instruments that

are familiar parts of today’s financial world.

The description of events, start of speculative

frenzy firms, their explosive growth and corrosive slump gives good insights

of the Wall Street players, their mind and psychology. In many ways the

1906s were a dress rehearsal for the late 1990s. The explanation of the

events that Leon traversed four decades from 1960s featured the

devaluation of the dollar, the oil embargo, commodity inflation that flared

the better part of the decade (1960 -1970), the rise and fall of junk bonds,

the great bubble mania of 1990s has made precisely with lively experience.

The book begins with the larger age old theme – Good times breed laxity,

Laxity breeds unreliable numbers and ultimately unreliable numbers bring

about bad times. The psychological factor - an upbeat market that leaves the

public unmindful of bad news, whereas in a down market, no one trusts good

news, has been proved again thru the series of events from 1960s from

1990s.

Behavioural finance is a concept that reasons the market behaviour when it

deviates from fundamentals, technical or economics. Fundamentals are

sometimes no so fundamental after all, has been precisely highlighted thru

the M1 indicator of Fed.

Levy’s thought is that market is not efficient, for he says for an astute

investor, the worst situation is an efficient market rather the factors that

creates opportunities are emotions such as fear, changes that creates

unknowns. He justifies his thought thru the Public Utilities Holding Company

Act of Franklin D Roosevelt, which brings the change in utilities holding

companies.

At one point, Leon explains the caveat of overreachers. Evil doers start out

honestly, but as their companies grew, the markets demanded ever more

growth, and they all discovered one fundamental truth: sustaining

performance over time is very hard. Faced with a choice of disappointing

their shareholders – they cheated. He goes on listing few scale of corruption

in America.

When investing normally an investor look into what to buy and when to buy,

but beyond that there is an importance of understanding the time frame of

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OCTOBER 2012 ATMASPHERE | 31

an investment, Leon crafts with his experience with Milwaukee Road. The

interplay of thoughts and feelings that causes someone to buy or sell at any

particular moment may involve factors far afield from the health of the

company or the state of the market.

When analysts sit down to analyze a stock, sector, or market, however, they

tend to look upon markets as rational and efficient. The dangerous outlook

on economic health based on the rational and efficient market behaviour is

explained thru the short case study – thru the collapse of LCTM (Long Term

Capital Management).

The change in dynamics from old economies to new economies – rather than

heralding the era, the shift in attitude toward risk exposed a neglected but

hugely important attribute of all markets, past, present and future: the role

of psychology. The shift in attitude toward risk exposed has explained thru

the Leveraged Buy Out (LBO), its success and failures thru emotions is a good

highlight in the book.

In the last part of the book Leon shares his experience in trading with Euro

dollar, how he benefited by betting on the economy rather than on the

stocks and a brief on Thailand crisis.

If human nature makes markets inefficient and moody, and the caribou

factor defeats the most exquisite analysis of financiers, it is natural to ask

how anyone might hope to make money in the markets. Leon answers to his

this question as – Why should the market be any more perfect than the very

human emotions and calculations that drive it? Investors overreact, and so

do markets. Investors get swept up in moods, and so do markets. And this

interplay creates investment opportunities.

Leon was neither a fundamental analyst nor a technical analyst, but he

traversed the fifty plus years in Wall Street successfully during which he

spent most of his time as a partner of Oppenhiemer funds, and then with

Odyssey Partners. Thru his experience of ups and downs, he highlights the

vital role of psychology in markets.

Thoughts of Mind (driven by greed and fear) differ from one generation to

other generation. In each generation the role of psychology in understanding

the market will have its own uniqueness and may or may not be repeated in

the next generation. But knowing how the fore-runners were and how they

have benefitted from understanding the of role of psychology during their

times will definitely a good experience of learning, If you too feel so the same

way then this is a book that one must read.

Somnath M is an Affiliate Member of MTA and ATMA.

Having worked earlier with Kotak Mahindra, HDFC and

ICICI, he is currently working as a Technical Analyst with

India Infoline – Premia. He has an experience of 7 years

into the stock market.

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"I am surprised & IMPRESSED that you have

critical mass to hold a women-only meeting! It’s

a wonderful thing if you can pull it off. I’d love

to speak to the group someday"

- Katie Stockton , Vice President, MTA

Soliciting Women

Volunteers:

While a formal new fully

empowered Committee

is being built as “Women

in Technical Analysis”

you are welcome to join

all other Committees

too!

ATMA will fund an extra monthly meeting on any good educational topic

EACH Month for AT LEAST the next 12 months under the Women in Technical

Analysis series where the speaker, the delegates and the volunteers will all be

women. A well appointed 80 seater conference hall with all modern business

amenities in perhaps one of the most secure & safe buildings of Mumbai –

right at a well known Commodity Exchange is being worked out as a

permanent venue!

This would make Mumbai the only city in the world of Technical Analysis

where there would now regularly be TWO monthly meetings, it would also be

a first of its kind anywhere in the world, Educational Monthly Meetings only

for women!

Women in Technical Analysis

A Necessary Initiative:

Are markets a man’s world? Is Technical

Analysis a man’s domain? Answer is clearly no,

since markets as the final masters are the

ultimate level playing field. Yet, for various

legacy reasons markets have continued to be

dominated by men, so far.

Increasingly a larger and larger percentage of women are excelling at markets

and we do know many good Technicians such as Connie Brown, Louise

Yamada, Katie Stockton to just name a few have made their mark on the

globe! It’s time for India to discover its own Ms. Browne, Ms. Yamada & Ms.

Stockton!

The goal clearly is also to include any number of women Technical Analysts

you know and who are not yet ATMA members, to bring to the main-stream.

Speak to them, let them know the exceptional work ATMA has been

producing and get them to become members so that there are at least a 100

women members of ATMA in the very near future to take your representation

to at least 20% and hopefully as numbers grow the spiral effect will someday

take you closer to 35% or even more than 50%!

Of the 500+ members of ATMA active at this point, only 24 are women. That's

an abysmal number. The truth is a far bigger percentage of women are

technical analysts than the percentage women members in ATMA! Why? I

don’t have any good answer, but would guess that networking, professional

link building and such other extracurricular activities haven’t been easier for

women.

Here is a special initiative for You - the women Technical Analysts of India,

way more organized, crisper and resourceful than what has been done so far

for the general membership, at large.

We've have instituted a separate committee altogether titled, "Women in

Technical Analysis". If you can think of a better name that may be turned

easily into a good & RESPECTABLE acronym using the first letters of each

We've have instituted a separate committee

altogether titled, "Women in Technical

Analysis". If you can think of a better name that

may be turned easily into a good &

RESPECTABLE acronym using the first letters of

each word, please do suggest.

So here is a special committee to be comprised

ONLY of women, FOR the women and BY the

Women at the ATMA. Your mandate as a

Committee is way larger: To represent, ascertain,

decipher and then achieve the goals for Women in

Technical Analysis.

Oh the Women Technical Analysts of India, write

to us for membership enquiries on:

[email protected] and for

volunteering on [email protected]!

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26th ATMA MUMBAI MEETING

Date: 24th November, 2012

Venue: M. C. Ghia Hall, Mumbai

Timing: 1.45 pm to 6.00 pm

Presenter: Mr. Sushil Kedia (B.Com. Grad. CWA, PGDBM, FRM,

CAIA, CMT) - Founder President of ATMA

Topic of study: Art of War & Technical Analysis

Focus of the Meeting:

War is the highest embodiment of human conflict

Every decision is a resolution of some conflict

Principles of warfare are applied to all business

achievement processes

As Technical Analysts, whether we trade or we invest,

there are meals for a lifetime in studying parallels

between war and our work

Sun Tzu’s Art of War is on the top-10, must read list of

books of Mr. Kedia and he will likely take the gathered

through a delectable journey of numbers, charts,

philosophy, sociology, mathematics, anthropology,

physics and all of it centered around how knowing the

Art of War improves each piece of work we do as

Technical Analysts.

ATMA MUMBAI MEETING

6th ATMA PUNE MEETING

Date: 25th November, 2012

Venue: B.V. Rao Conference Hall at

Deccan Gymkhana Club, Pune, Maharashtra

Timing: 1.45 pm to 5.45 pm

Presenter: Vivek Marne, a qualified Chartered Accountant.

He is passionate about Technical Analysis, and a self taught

Elliott Wave Technician. He currently runs his own firm.

Topic of study: Trading Systems and Money Management

Focus of the Meeting:

Segregating trading and analysis

Trading system & its pre-requisites

Overview of one of the popular Trading System--

Turtle Trading System

Key money management rules

Back-testing data and quantifying risks

ATMA MUMBAI MEETING

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

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34 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012

16th ATMA DELHI MEETING

7th ATMA JAIPUR MEETING

PAST EVENTS’ UPDATE

Date: 29th September, 2012

Held at: India International Centre

(Annexe Building), New Delhi

Attended By: 30 Participants

Topic of study: Learn Long/Short Trading Using Technical

Analysis

Presented by - Mr. Kunal Saraogi, CEO of EquityRush, Fund

Manager and renowned market commentator

Points of study in brief:

Rationale for a long and short strategy

Stock selection mechanisms

Identifying outperformance

Fine tuning strategy

Does timing still have a role?

Role of beta

Date: 29th September, 2012

Held at: Bhagawan Mahaveer Jain College,

Jaipur, Rajasthan

Attended By: 10 Participants

Topic of study: Dow Theory & Its applications on Trend Analysis

Presented by – Mr. Rajat Gupta, a member of MTA and ATMA.

He is pursuing CMT and is an independent market technical

analyst

Points of study in brief:

• How to analyze the Trend in all time frame

Use technical tools in combination with fundamental tools to

determine direction of trend

Use technical tools to spot changes in direction of price

trends

Identify new and existing trends

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OCTOBER 2012 ATMASPHERE | 35

25th ATMA MUMBAI MEETING

2nd ATMA AHMEDABAD MEETING

PAST EVENTS’ UPDATE (CONTD…)

Date: 6th October, 2012

Held at: BSE Convention Hall, Dalal Street, Fort,

Mumbai, Maharashtra

Attended By: 350 Participants

Topic of study: Technical Research at Fidelity: Behind the

Scenes

Presented by - Mr. David Keller, CMT, Managing Director of

Research for Fidelity Investments in Boston. He is currently

serving as President of the Market Technicians Association and a

Director of the MTA Educational Foundation.

Points of study in brief:

Technical Indicators

Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis

Visualization

Date: 13th October, 2012

Held at: AMA Seminar Hall, Ahmedabad

Gujarat

Attended By: 19 Participants

Topic of study: Swing Trading & Elliot Wave

Presented by: Mr. Nimish Bhatt, who holds 20 years’ experience

into stock trading & investing. He handles client portfolio from

past 10 years. He also provides technical support for query

building in Metastock, Amibroker & E-signal Advanced GET.

Points of study in brief:

Self Introduction

Introduction to Elliot wave

Introduction to Swing Trading

Combining Swing Trading with Elliot Wave Patterns

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36 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012

CMT REFRESHER COURSE WEBINARS

8th ATMA BENGALURU MEETING

Date: 25th October, 2012

Held at: Sri Bhagawan Mahavir Jain College,

Bengaluru, Karnataka

Attended by : 40 Participants

Topic of study: Technical Analysis using Candlesticks

Presented By: Mr. Vishal B Malkan, CMT, a Trading Coach and

Founder of ‘Malkansview’ - an Institute that provides training in

Technical Analysis & Behavioral Finance

Points of study in brief:

Rare but powerful Candle Patterns

Candlesticks + ADX – A highly influential combination

Blended Candle and Bull & Bear Traps

Momentum trading with Candlestick Patterns

PAST EVENTS’ UPDATE (CONTD...)

Held on: 16th October, 2012

Attended By:

Level 1 - 42 Candidates

Level 2 - 40 Candidates

Level 3 - 18 Candidates

Presented by – Mr. Vishal B Malkan, CMT, a Trading Coach and

Founder of ‘Malkansview’ - an Institute that provides training in

Technical Analysis & Behavioral Finance

Focus of the Webinars -

1. Review of significant topics from recommended readings.

2. Clarification of doubts about the curriculum.

3. Guidance on writing the exams papers of each level.

4. Discussion of ideas, concerns, prep tips, memory aides and

other valuable tools.

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OCTOBER 2012 ATMASPHERE | 37

5TH ATMA PUNE MEETING

Date: 28th October, 2012

Held at: B.V. Rao Conference Hall,

Deccan Gymkhana Club, Pune, Maharashtra

Attended by : 30 Participants

Topic of study: Trading the markets using Point and Figure

Charts

Presented By: Mr. Prashant Shah, CMT, CFT and a member

of IFTA. Prashant is working as Associate Vice President with

IIFL in Pune.

Points of study in brief:

Introduction of Point and Figure Charting methods

Characteristics and Construction of Point and Figure

charts

Understanding Point and Figure patterns and counts

Practical use of patterns and price projections

Understanding Point and Figure set ups in combination

with line and candlestick charts

Techniques of Developing trading setups using Point and

Figure methods

PAST EVENTS’ UPDATE (CONTD...)

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OCTOBER 2012 ATMASPHERE | 39

Benefits of Membership with the ATMA

Apply for your ATMA Membership Today!

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40 | ATMASPHERE OCTOBER 2012