consumptive needs technical workgroup - dnr...2017/11/14 · flood risk management flood plain...
TRANSCRIPT
Consumptive Needs Technical Workgroup
Kickoff and Workshop
November 14, 2017, 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m.
Missouri Water Resources Plan
Welcome!
Jennifer Hoggatt
Director
Water Resources Center
Sherri Stoner
Chief of Planning
Water Resources Center
Agenda Overview F
irst
Ho
ur
Introduction and Meeting Format
Missouri Department of Natural Resources Project Vision and Schedule
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Importance and Participation
Organization Chart
Scope and Core Elements of the Water Plan
Critical Success Factors
Sec
on
d H
ou
r
Water Resources Center Liaison Introductions
Participant Introductions
Communications
Missouri Department of Natural Resources Water Plan website
Break
Th
ird
Ho
ur
Technical Workgroup Roles
Technical Workgroup Meetings
Consumptive Needs Methodology Overview
Next Steps
Public Comments
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Missouri Water Resources Plan Vision
Statutory Responsibility (640.415 RSMo):
“The department shall develop, maintain and periodically update a state water plan for a long-range, comprehensive statewide program for the use of surface water and groundwater resources of the state, including existing and future need for drinking water supplies, agriculture, industry, recreation, environmental protection and related needs.”
Project Vision (MoDNR)
• Provide an understanding of water resource needs
• Ensure the quantity of water resources meet future water demands
• Identify future water supply shortfalls
• Explore options to address water needs
The Missouri Water
Resources Plan is a long range, comprehensive
strategy to:
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Missouri Water Resources Plan Update: Goals
Gather public and stakeholder input to help identify needs and priority areas of water resource development.
Establish key stakeholder advisory and technical groups to help guide water plan development.
Develop an updated evaluation of current groundwater and surface water availability and develop projected water supply needs.
Produce an in-depth analysis of current and future consumptive, non-consumptive and agricultural water needs, and identify gaps in water availability based on water demand projections.
Identify water and wastewater infrastructure needs, and evaluate funding and financing opportunities.
Recognize water quality and assess how this affects water supply uses.
Understand areas where developing new and more sustainable water sources, better infrastructure, and more integrated water supplies can help to sustain water delivery.
To better understand regionally where future water gaps may exist, as studies have revealed in parts of southwest and northern Missouri.
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Missouri Water Resources Plan – Schedule
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USACE Partnership – Planning Assistance to States
Authority and Scope
• Section 22 of the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) of 1974, as amended, provides authority for the Corps of Engineers to assist the states, local governments, Native American Tribes and other non-federal entities, in the preparation of comprehensive plans for the development and conservation of water and related land resources.
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USACE Partnership (continued)
Planning Assistance to States Principles
• Typical studies are undertaken only at the planning level of detail
• They do not include detailed design for project construction
• Broad coverage – “water and related resource” planning
• Cost shared 50/50 with state, Tribal or local government
• In-kind services can be used to meet 100 percent of non-federal contribution
• Program annual ceiling is $30 million nationally, and $5 million per state
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PAS – Types of Studies
Water Supply and Demand
Water Quality Studies
Environmental Conservation/Restoration
Wetlands Evaluation
Dam Safety/Failure
Flood Risk Management
Flood Plain Management
Eau Galle River nutrient study for water quality 10
Missouri Water Resources Plan Organization Chart
Consumptive Infrastructure Non-
Consumptive Agricultural Water Quality
Contractors: CDM Smith
University of Missouri
Advisory Group: Interagency Task Force
Technical Work Group Needs
Stakeholders / Public Outreach
Project Managers: Sherri Stoner, MoDNR Kaely Megaro, USACE
Jaysson Funkhouser, USACE
USACE MoDNR
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Organization Roles and Responsibilities
USACE MoDNR CDM Smith
University of Missouri
Technical Workgroup Liaisons/Spokesperson
Technical Workgroup Members
Stakeholders
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Water Resources Plan – Core Elements
Demands
Supply
Infrastructure
Water Quality
Public and Stakeholder Involvement
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Water Resources Plan – Elements Schedule
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Water Resources Plan – Elements Schedule
Evaluate Demographics, Economics and Trends
• Evaluate current and projected population and other key demographic factors
• Evaluate the role of water in major economic sectors
• Analyze the social setting surrounding water management
Quantify Consumptive and Characterizing Non-Consumptive Demand
• Analyze demand studies and population estimates
• Estimate water resources sustainability and reliability
• Evaluate raw water providers production, wastewater treatment outfalls, reuse, conservation and efficiency, wholesale water contracts and direct flow storage
• Evaluate non-consumptive demands such as thermoelectric, navigation and water-based outdoor recreation
Estimate Agricultural Demands
• Identify/evaluate irrigated acreage, crop type, and livestock
• Utilize methods for estimating consumptive use, gross diversions, return flows, losses and non-beneficial consumptive use
Evaluate Water Quality
• Analyze water quality and the impact on consumptive water supply
• Evaluate water quality for wastewater improvements
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Water Resources Plan – Elements Schedule
Analyze Surface and Groundwater Hydrology and Availability
• Analyze river basin hydrology and reasonable variations in hydrology
• Track and account water transfers between uses and between watersheds
• Estimate aquifer capacity, yield, sustainability and suitability for aquifer storage/recharge
Evaluate Infrastructure
• Analyze infrastructure, conservation, system efficiencies, conjunctive use, transfers and development of new supplies
• Analyze options to meet identified management objectives
• Estimate capital, Operations and Maintenance, and periodic costs
• Evaluate alternative rates and fee structures, cost-benefit analysis and non-traditional innovative funding strategies
Adaptive Management
• Identify major uncertainties related to the future of water in the State of Missouri
• Evaluate multiple planning scenarios and identify decision points
Stakeholder and Public Involvement
• Implement technical workgroups
• Facilitate stakeholder involvement meetings
• Gather public input
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Missouri Water Resources Plan Update:
Define Water Supply Objectives
Sustainably meet municipal and
industrial needs
Sustainably meet agricultural needs
Provide operational flexibility
Protect the environment
Promote cost effectiveness
Identify water quality impacts on water supply uses
Educate and engage residents, businesses and other
stakeholders in water planning to 2060
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Missouri Water Resources Plan Update: Project Quality Process
Step back from specific project details and look at the big picture
• What is the project going to accomplish?
• Why is it important?
• What do we need to ensure success?
• What might hamper our success and how do we deal with it?
Process is a team approach
• Active participation
• Develop a thorough understanding of the project
• Team commitment to project success
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Critical Success Factors
Stakeholders
Project Management
Communication
Technical
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Critical Success Factors
Stakeholder Collaboration and coordination across sectors, disciplines, groups, and project team
members to develop a holistic plan. Representation for stakeholders across technical workgroups
Leverage existing outreach efforts, optimize capacity of state water resources plan and best utilize information from each one
Documentation and information sharing is public, open and easily accessible Establish mechanism for unsolicited outside public input Evaluate engagement beyond attendance; clearly incorporating feedback into final
products Equitable representation of stakeholder groups and opportunity for feedback and
buy-in on planning and methodology processes for analysis Design stakeholder engagement for "beyond the plan" to establish actual
implementation of results Policy, programs and project recommendations generated by stakeholders, vetted
and prioritized by MoDNR, incorporated into the water plan with implementation path forward
Identify controversial and conflicting issues and establish facilitation for productive outcome of feedback
Stakeholders
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Critical Success Factors (continued)
Project Management
Communication through CDM Smith, MoDNR and USACE to disseminate throughout the groups and keep all team members informed and involved
Understanding the established timeline and managing the expectations and needs to meet that schedule
Project Management
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Critical Success Factors (continued)
Communication Communication needs to be specific or tailored to the audience in question; we
must know the audience and their issues and points of view
Participants in the technical workgroups and the Interagency Task Force, stakeholders and the public need to finish the study with the feeling that their voices have been heard and that they contributed to the plan in a meaningful or material way
We must find the right way to communicate with the appropriate web-based tools, in order to maximize our outreach and effectiveness in engagement of the widest membership of the water resources community
We need consistent messaging coming from all water resources plan team members
The water resources plan should result in raising the awareness of the value of water resources to the State now and in the future
Communication
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Critical Success Factors (continued)
Technical
Developing sound methodology and making sure this is clear to the stakeholders and readers of the report
Have thorough quality assurance and quality control reviews in place
Use best available data and determine where there is insufficient information
Quantification of costs
Sustainability
Priorities and components of high, medium and low projections (wet/dry, conservation, etc.)
Missouri Water Resources Plan will document its findings
Technical
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Water Resources Center Liaison Introductions
John Horton Michael Weller Bryan Hopkins Scott Kaden Sherri Stoner
Consumptive Infrastructure Non-
Consumptive Agricultural Water Quality
Technical Workgroups
Others from Contact List?
Introductions: • Name • Who do you work for? • Who are you representing? • What do you hope to get out of the process?
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Project Communications
Roles and expectations
Website
Basecamp IATF
meetings
Public outreach
Project Communications
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Missouri Water Resources Plan – Website
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dnr.mo.gov/mowaterplan/
Missouri Water Resources Plan – Basecamp
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Public Outreach – MoDNR Base Presentation
Delete text and add screenshot
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Public Outreach – Brochure
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Interagency Task Force (IATF) Updates
Next IATF meeting is scheduled for: Date: November 28, 2017
Location: Lewis and Clark State Office Building in Jefferson City, Mo.
Time: 9:00 a.m. to noon
Topics to be discussed: Water Resources Plan Status – CDM Smith
Technical Workgroups Update – Workgroup Spokesperson
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Identify Technical Workgroup Spokesperson
Define the process to nominate and elect a spokesperson for each Technical Workgroup
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Technical Workgroup Role – Define
Define the Technical Workgroups
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Technical Workgroup Role – Rules
Define the Technical Workgroup Rules
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Technical Workgroup Role – First Meetings
November 14-16, 2017, in Roaring River Conference Room, 1730 East Elm Street, Jefferson City
Nov. 14 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Consumptive Needs
1 p.m. to 4 p.m. – Infrastructure Needs
Nov. 15 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Non-Consumptive Needs
1 p.m. to 4 p.m. – Agricultural Needs
Nov. 16 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Water Quality Needs
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Technical Workgroup Role – Future Meetings February 6-8, 2018, in Roaring River Conference Room, 1730 East Elm Street, Jefferson City
Feb. 6 9 a.m.to 12 p.m. – Consumptive 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. – Infrastructure Feb. 7 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Non-Consumptive 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. – Agriculture Feb. 8 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Water Quality
May 15-17, 2018, in LaCharrette Conference Room, Lewis and Clark State Office Building, Jefferson City
May 15 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Consumptive 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. – Infrastructure May 16 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Non-Consumptive 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. – Agriculture May 17 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Water Quality
August 14-16, 2018, in LaCharrette Conference Room, Lewis and Clark State Office Building, Jefferson City
Aug. 14 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Consumptive 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. – Infrastructure Aug. 15 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Non-Consumptive 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. – Agriculture Aug. 16 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. – Water Quality
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Technical Workgroup Role – Meetings
Coordination with other Technical Workgroups
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Technical Workgroup Role – Participation
Ask that members of the Technical Workgroups provide additional suggestions and recommendations to be considered in the process
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Technical Workgroup Meetings
Present current status of the Water Resources Plan – Overall
Present the methodology for each element
Present the status of the tasks as part of each element of the Plan
Identify specific topics for Technical Workgroup input
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Consumptive Needs
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ALL WATER DEMAND SECTORS
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Consumptive Demand Quantified • Municipally-provided public
supply
• Self-supplied nonresidential
• Self-supplied domestic
• Thermoelectric power generation (small portion consumed)
• Livestock
• Agriculture irrigation
Non-Consumptive Demand Characterized Hydroelectric power generation
Commercial navigation
Aquaculture and wetlands
Water-based outdoor recreation
Thermoelectric power generation (small portion consumed)
Consumptive demand refers to water that is withdrawn from the source and consumed in a way that makes its use
all or partially unavailable for other purposes or uses.
Consumptive Demand Approach
Data Availability Review
Identify Driver and Per Unit Use
Quantify Current Water Use and Supply
Project Changes in Per Unit Use and Drivers
Forecast Water Use to 2060
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Consumptive Demand Overview of Demand Forecasting Methodology
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GOAL: identify withdrawals and consumptive use by sector, source and
county to 2060
Consumption Demand Forecast Capturing Uncertainty
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2016 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Baseline High Scenario Low Scenario
Range of future
possible demand
levels
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Consumptive Demand Sources of Supply
Source of supply identified for consumptive demands
Groundwater aquifers
Surface water “Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC)” 8 for analysis, HUC 4 for reporting
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Missouri Hydrologic Units
Alluvial Aquifer
McNairy Aquifer
Ozark Confining Unit
Pennsylvanian Confining Unit
Precambrian Confining Unit
Springfield Plateau/Mississippian Aquifer
St Francois Aquifer
St Francois Confining Unit
Wilcox Aquifer
Ozark/Cambrian-Ordovician Aquifer
Municipally-Provided Public Supply
Definition – Water that is provided by a municipal or public water supply entity to homes, businesses and light industries
Data Sources
MoDNR Major Water User Database
Census of Missouri Public Water Systems
Woods & Poole 2017 Complete Economic and Demographic Data
MoDNR public wells data
Methodology Population Publicly-Supplied times Per Capita Use Rate
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Adjusted for passive conservation impacts from
plumbing codes, ordinances and standards
that improve efficiency
Municipally-Provided Public Supply Water Wholesales
Methodology does account for water purchases and sales, to the extent possible given available data
Water sellers and buyers identified from Census of Missouri Public Water Systems
~200 systems in the municipally-provided public supply sector purchase majority of water from another provider
Majority seller source of water assumed for these systems
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Municipality Seller 1
Municipality Buyer 1
Municipality Buyer 2
aquifer
Self-Supplied Domestic
Definition – Water that is used by homes, sub-divisions or mobile home parks that is supplied by a privately owned and operated well
Data Sources MoDNR Major Water User Database Census of Missouri Public Water Systems U.S. Geological Survey 2010 estimates Woods & Poole 2017 Complete Economic and Demographic Data MoDNR Public Wells Data
Methodology Population Self-Supplied times Per Capita Use Rate
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Adjusted for passive conservation impacts from
plumbing codes, ordinances and standards
that improve efficiency
Self-Supplied Domestic and Municipally-Provided Linkage
Total population in a county is the “control”
Municipally-supplied population is first calculated; smaller systems without readily known information about source of supply are not included
Self-supplied is the remainder Total County Population minus Municipally-Supplied equals Self-Supplied
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Municipally-Supplied Population
Self-Supplied Population
Self-Supplied Nonresidential
Definition – Water used by nonresidential establishments, such as industries, golf courses, nursing homes, hotels, mining and prisons that is supplied by the establishments own source
Data Sources
MoDNR Major Water User Database
Census of Missouri Public Water Systems
Woods & Poole 2017 Complete Economic and Demographic Data
MoDNR Public Wells Data
Methodology
Current Nonresidential Use times Employment Growth
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Data Sources – Water Use Information
Major Water User Database (MoDNR)
Water users pumping or diverting 100,000 (or more) gallons per day must register and report
Key data include withdrawal points, use category, primary county, population served
Census of Missouri Public Water Systems (MoDNR)
Systems serving 25 people or more
Key data include volume, source water type, population served, water sellers and buyers
U.S. Geological Survey Water Use in the United States
Every 5 years, latest is 2010
Estimated of current water use patterns
Used for supplemental information and verification
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Not all water users (especially non-municipal systems) register and report
Methodology designed in a way to mitigate these data gaps, but limitations do still exist
Self-supplied nonresidential use is underestimated because not all users are registered
Per capita use rates for municipal systems are estimated from self-reported data and are adjusted for water sales
Data gaps offer opportunity to identify areas where better data are needed in future
Range of future demands intended to mitigate data gap impact on technical analysis
Data Sources – Limitations
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Non-Consumptive Demand Thermoelectric Power Generation
Definition – Water required for the generation of electricity that is
produced from burning fossil fuels; only a small portion of the water withdrawn is consumed
Both non-consumptive and consumptive withdrawals are estimated
Methodology
Identify major facilities
Estimate existing withdrawals for each facility and source of water
Future projections by facility, accounting for population growth, regional pools and fuel type projections
Estimate consumptive portion
Seasonality description
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Non-Consumptive Demand Thermoelectric Power Generation
Data Sources U.S. Department of Energy,
Energy Information Administration (923, 860, and Annual Energy Outlook)
U.S. Geological Survey 2010
Major Water Users Database
National Renewable Energy Laboratory – A Review of Operational Water Consumption and Withdrawal Factors for Electricity Generating Technologies
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Data Sources – Demographic Projections
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Projections obtained from Woods & Poole, an independent corporation specializing in long-term county projections
Projections are cohesive and regionally based
Includes both employment and population
Projects employment by basic sectors where output is not consumed locally (i.e., mining, agriculture) and non-basic sectors (retail trade, construction) that depend largely on the growth of the basic sectors with some exceptions for Missouri (e.g., Information and Finance in Kansas City)
Other options explored, State Demographer provided input on best available source
Consumptive Demand Data Gaps
Additional data points for seasonal water use patterns
Information about planned conservation
Better reporting and tracking of wholesale water purchasing and selling
Reports and studies about planned projects that will move systems from one water source to another during the planning horizon
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Supply Availability
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Surface Water Supply
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Surface Water Supply Task Summary
Goals
• Identify and quantify existing and future surface water supply sources
• Assess water supply availability accounting for future demands and hydrologic variability scenarios
• Summarize USACE reservoir allocations
Elements
• Develop and apply tools to support surface water analysis
• Develop water budgets to determine water availability under dry, normal and wet conditions
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Surface Water Methodology Overview S
tep
1
Baseline Analysis - Assess conditions
using historical hydrology
Tool Development Incorporate: - Streamflow - Major withdrawals
and discharges - Major reservoirs
Analysis Framework - Develop basin
schematic
Data Analysis - Streamflow gap filling and
record extension
Data Collection and Review - Streamflow - Major withdrawals and
discharges - Interbasin transfers - Reservoir Operations - Climate
Ste
p 2
Assess Future Conditions - 2060 demands and
scenarios
Tool Selection
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Surface Water Supply Data Sources
Missouri State Water Plan Series, Volume I: Surface Water Resources of Missouri (WR45)
Missouri Drought Plan (WR69, 2002)
MoDNR Water Supply Study (2011)
USGS Stream Gage Data
MoDNR Major Water Users Database
MoDNR GIS Catalog
U.S. EPA DWINSA
Safe Drinking Water Intended Use Plan (IUP)
SDWIS - MoDNR Public Water Systems 2013 ASCE Report Card for Missouri's Infrastructure
MoDNR Census of Public Water Systems
University of Missouri Center for Applied Research and Environmental Systems (CARES)
Southwest Missouri Water Resource Study Phases I and II (2012, 2014)
Northwest Missouri Regional Water Supply Phases I through IV
Howard County Regional Water Commission
Caldwell County Commission, Little Otter Creek Reservoir
Clarence Cannon Wholesale Water Commission, Mark Twain Lake
North Central Missouri Regional Water Commission, East Locust Creek Reservoir
Atchison County Wholesale Water Commission
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Surface water supply analysis will focus on the nine sub-regional Hydrologic Units (HUC-4 level)
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Groundwater Supply
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Overview of Groundwater Approach
• Identify sources and limitations of groundwater in Missouri
• Project the most likely future conditions and availability of groundwater
• Integrate groundwater analysis into the broader supply analysis
Goals:
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Groundwater in Missouri
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Groundwater in Missouri (continued)
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Groundwater Data Sources
Groundwater Withdrawals for Consumptive and Non-consumptive Demands
Municipal supplies
Industrial supplies
Thermoelectric
Aquaculture and wetland habitat
Groundwater-Level Observation Well Network
Regional Groundwater Studies
USGS Numerical Groundwater Models, such as:
Ozark Plateaus Aquifer System in the vicinity of Greene County, Missouri
Ozark Plateaus aquifer system, northwestern Arkansas, southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri and northeastern Oklahoma
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Groundwater-Level Observation Well Network Maintained by the Missouri
Geological Survey’s Water Resources Center
Network was started in 1956 and includes 150 wells
Network includes precipitation gages at 41 sites
Wells range in depth from 11 to 1,825 feet
The network does NOT collect water quality data
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Groundwater Supply – Current and Future
Under the demand forecasting task, develop future demand projections
These will be assessed two ways:
Quantitatively using USGS Numerical groundwater
models; updating groundwater withdrawals per demand
projections for planning period
Qualitatively using regional groundwater studies, water
level information and projected groundwater demands for
planning horizon
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Next Steps
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Public Comments
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Thank You
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