Consumption and Sustainability: A Quantitative Approach

Based on T21 China

Weishuang Qu, Ph.D.Director of Modeling and Analysis

Millennium InstituteJanuary, 2013

You cannot solve the problem with the same

thinking that created the problem Albert Einstein

Growth during 1990 – 2008

• Population: 16%

• Real GDP: 438% (9.8% pa)

• GHG emissions: 2.5 B Ton to 7.2 B Ton

• Export and consumption driven

Consumption growth 1990 – 2008• Vehicles: 5 M to 50 M (2012: 109 M)• Per capita living space: 13.7 M2 to 29.5

M2

• Soybean import: 0 to over 30 M Tons (2012: 57 M)

• Oil consumption: 120 MT to 400 MT• What do they mean?

Vehicle:

• Average iron/steel: 2 tons

• Infrastructure (Parking space and paved roads)

• Fuel consumption

Living space, each square meter:• 300 - 400 kg of cement

• 70 – 100 kg of steel

• Heating, AC, lighting

• Expansion of urban land

Soybean imports of 30 MT:

• At yield of 2 tons per hectare (actual yield: 1.4 – 1.9)

• 15 M Ha extra land needed• 12.5% of China’s crop land (and

irrigation water)• (Domestic soybean production: 15 M

Tons)

Oil consumption of 400 MT/Year:• 8 M Barrels/day

• Half was imported

• Fast growing

• Domestic production: 200 MT/Year

Where will China be in 2030?

• Depends on policy, tech, awareness, others

• Need a consistent, quantitative tool

• T21 jointly developed by MI and ISTIC in 2009

Features of T21:

• Integrated (economy, social, and environment) and long term

• Interactive, transparent, easy to operate

• Client owned and maintained

• What if analysis with alternative scenarios

• 20 years of R&D

Selected screens from T21 China: Overview

Selected screens from T21 China: Causal diagram to involve stakeholders

Selected screens from T21 China:Comparison with data to validate model

Selected screens from T21 China:Policy screen

Selected screens from T21 China:Policy change to gov expenditures

Scenarios:

• Business As Usual (BAU)

• High consumption-low technology

• Low consumption-high technology

Policies/Assumptions for LowConsumpHighTech• Higher oil prices

• Higher gas mileage

• More renewable power generation

• Faster technology advance in manufacturing and agriculture

• Smaller living areas

• Slower water demand growth

Scenario output: oil demand

Scenario summary for 2030Low Consump High Consump

Unit Baseline High Tech Low Tech

real GDP RMB2000/Yr 6.67E+13 5.64E+13 7.23E+13

per capita real GDP RMB2000/Yr 46,829 39,745 47,580

unemployment rate % of workforce 6.12% 18.67% 0.00%

total electricity demand

Bn KWH/Yr 8,191 7,124 8,949

total petroleum demand

MT/Yr 1,059 791 1,294

fossil fuel CO2 emission

Ton/Yr 1.16E+10 8.87E+09 1.40E+10

Agriculture Land Ha 1.15E+08 1.19E+08 1.08E+08

total water demand Ton/Yr 6.07E+11 4.61E+11 7.93E+11

Scenario analysis for LowConsumptionHighTech• GDP 15% lower, but still 300% of 2008

• Energy and fossil fuel emissions much improved (energy security)

• Land (esp. crop land) and water much improved, indicating better food security

• Unemployment could be a big issue for this scenario. Other policies needed, such as organic agriculture to absorb more rural labor

Summary

• Consumption patterns affect sustainability

• A quantitative tool to help policy analysis

• Identify potential benefits and costs

• Model and script download:

www.millennium-institute.org

Thanks!Thanks!

Questions and comments?Questions and comments?

www.millennium-institute.orgwq@millennium-institute.org