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LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF
TIMES MODEL
Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems
29th and 30th May, 2017CO2ENERGY &
CLIMATE
New Technologies & Low Carbon Practices
Climate Mitigation/ Adaptation
Consumers Profiles &
Energy Efficiency
Policy Support
Energy Transitions
Integrative Energy City
Planning
Luís Pereira Dias1, Sofia Simões, João Pedro Gouveia, Júlia Seixas
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Agenda
• Context
• InSmart project
Scope
Methods and tools
City energy planning structure
• TIMES_Évora model
Sectors
Geographic representation
Zooming in: buildings (residential)
• “Real World conditions” - Households budget constrains
Results
ConclusionsDias, L. LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF TIMES MODEL. Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems, 29th and 30th May, 2017. Madrid CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017
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Context
more than half of
global population80% of the world’s
GDP in 2013
two-thirds of primary
energy demand
70% of total energy-
related CO2 emissions
The History of Urbanization, 3700 BC - 2000 AD: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKJYXujJ7sU
2050?
2100?
70% in 2050
CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017
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Context
Target:
By 2030, reduce the adverse per capita
environmental impact of cities,
including by paying special attention to
air quality and municipal and other waste
management
Target:
- Integrate climate change measures into
national policies, strategies and planning
Target:
- increase substantially
the share of renewable
energy in the global
energy mix
The challenge is also
address in various SDG
Cities are at the heartof the decarbonisation effort
CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017
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TIMES models• TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) model generator was developed as part of the IEA-ETSAP (Energy Technology
Systems Analysis Program), an international community which uses long term energy scenarios to conduct in-depth energy and
environmental analyses (Loulou et al., 2004).
• The TIMES model generator combines two different, but complementary, systematic approaches to modelling energy: a technical
engineering approach and an economic approach.
• TIMES is a technology rich, bottom-up model generator, which uses linear-programming to produce a least-cost energy system,
optimized according to a number of user constraints, over medium to long-term time horizons. In a nutshell, TIMES is used for, "the
exploration of possible energy futures based on contrasted scenarios" (Loulou et al., 2005).
Global
RegionalNational
Local
ETSAP-TIAM
More information at: http://www.iea-etsap.org/
JRC-EU-TIMES model
TIMES_PT
TIMES_EVORA
28 European states
Available at: http://bookshop.europa.eu/en/the-jrc-eu-times-model-
pbLDNA26292/?CatalogCategoryID=YysKABsty0YAAAEjqJEY4e5L
15 regions
CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017
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Cesena (Italy) Deka Trikala (Greece) Nottingham (U.K.)Évora (Portugal)
European funded project (FP7) [2013-2016]
working in partnership towards a sustainable
energy future.
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Scope
VISION: Cities sustainable energy future are achievable by:
• bringing together cities, scientific and industrial organizations, • considering the integration of the components of the city’s energy system, • selecting cost-effective options from multiple data sources and integrated
tools,• choosing the best social-accepted technologies and measures.
PURPOSE:• Design comprehensive data-driven methods for enhancing the city’s
sustainable planning addressing the current and future city energy needs, • Implement an integrative planning tool to identify the optimum mix of
short, medium and long term measures for a sustainable energy future forthe city,
• Address the efficiency of energy flows across all city sectors taking spatial patterns and economic, environmental and social criteria
• Engage city agents to pave the implementation of priority actions.
CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF TIMES MODEL. Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems, 29th and 30th May, 2017. Madrid
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Methods and tools
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City Energy Planning structure
Integrated City Energy Planning framework and major outcomes
Per typology
Évora model
CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017
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TIMES_Évora: Sectors
• Transport
• Buildings
• Public services
• Energy Supply
• Industry
• Agriculture
Residential
Commercial
Municipality
Water system
Sewage system
Waste system
Public lighting
lighting
Passenger cars
Urban and intercity buses
Light duty trucks
Freight trucks
Trains
Motorcycles
CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF TIMES MODEL. Workshop on Sustainability
Performance of the Energy Systems, 29th and 30th May, 2017. Madrid
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Évora energy flows
CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017 LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF TIMES MODEL. Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems, 29th and 30th May, 2017. Madrid
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Structure of TIMES_Évora
o Geographical representation
Four regions: 3 urban and 1 rural
CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017 LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF TIMES MODEL. Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems, 29th and 30th May, 2017. Madrid
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Structure of TIMES_Évora II
o (Real) Time slices
Based on the quality of information that we had: Big data - 32 000 smart meter
information on residential and avrious sectors electricity consumption at 15 minutes and
also PV powerplants electricity production profiles;
18 timeslices
• Seasons: Summer; Winter
and interseasonal
• Week days and week ends
• Day, night and peak
CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017
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Modelling approach
Refrigerators and freezers
Clothes dryers
Clothes Washing machines
Lighting
Dishwashers
Other electric
equipment
Space heating
Cooking
Space Cooling
Waterheating
10 building
typologies
4 city zones
Per
en
erg
y e
ffic
ien
cy c
lass
es a
nd
typ
e o
f
fuel
LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF TIMES MODEL. Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems, 29th and 30th May, 2017. Madrid CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017
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Modelling approach
10 building
typologies
4 city zones
Equipments and
energy services
Mobility
• By type of fuel• By age (Euro Norm)• By origin-destiny matrice
Based on household level of income
LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF TIMES MODEL. Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems, 29th and 30th May, 2017. Madrid CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017
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Socio-economic scenarios
• The visions underlying each modelledquantitative scenario until 2030 were co-developed with municipal stakeholders ina series of meetings.
• “Demand Scenarios” that were at a laterstage combined with “Policy scenarios”reflecting the goals of the municipality;
• Narratives evolved into the following two main visions for Évora: Smart and Reference
LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF TIMES MODEL. Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems, 29th and 30th May, 2017. Madrid CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017
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Visions for Évora
• Reference (REF) vision
• population decreases from 56 595 inhabitants in 2011 to 48 960 inhabitants in 2030 following the
expected trends from Statistics Portugal for the whole of the country;
• no changes on energy consumption profiles for the different consumers, and mobility patterns;
• new commercial mall;
• Smart Évora (Smart) vision
• Resident population stable till 2030;
• relocation of the municipality technical services
• new district hospital, new roads, and the expansion of the industrial park
LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF TIMES MODEL. Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems, 29th and 30th May, 2017. Madrid
CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017
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Policy scenarios
Generate Sustainable Future (2030) Energy (realistic) pathways
Expand individual mobility soft-modes
Energy efficiency measures in 70% of
households (double glazing, insulation, shading
devices)
Reduce 30-50% of energy
consumption
Demo on Zero Energy
Building Public lighting with 100% of LEDs
Expand the use of electric
vehicles (5-10% of
vehicles)
Restrict cars in cities’ historical centers
50% of households equipped
with solar energy (PV and
thermal)
Smart-biomass heating
systems (60% of fireplaces)
Reduce 30% waste generation
Improve energy
efficiency in waste
water treatment plants
LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF TIMES MODEL. Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems, 29th and 30th May, 2017. Madrid CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017
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Using the TIMES_Évora Generate Sustainable Future (2030) Energy (realistic) pathways
• Scenario: Évora mitigate – CO2 emission target in 2030: 30%reducting
comparing with 2013 values
• Scenario: Reality check - Constrains on available family budget for technology
investments:
Based on national information on family savings rate in Portugal (8.3% in 2013 (INE, 2016)) and
the levels of income per family and building typology (based on InSmart buildings surveys)
Reference scenario for population forecast rate (-4% for every 5 years: -15% in 2030 vs 2011)
LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF TIMES MODEL. Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems, 29th and 30th May, 2017. Madrid CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017
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ResultsÉvora municipality CO2 emission (Gg CO2)
-11%
-30%
Final energy consumption
• High level of electricity inclusion in transport sector (Évora mitigate) vs GSL and LPG
based vehicles (Reality check)
[Justification- low distances travelled in the city, emission factor of electricity]
• Reduction consumption of diesel for SH in residential sector (Évora mitigate) vs higher
consumption of natural gas and LPG – reduction of electricity high efficiency techs;
• Reduction on the adoption of refurbishment and insulation technologies.
• Restriction of investment does limit the adoption of specific high efficient technologies: ex:
refrigerators (Reality check has only A+ refrigerators vs Évora mitigate with above A+);
CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017
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ResultsÉvora municipality CO2 emission (Gg CO2)
Final energy consumption
43%
• High level of electricity inclusion in transport sector (Évora mitigate) vs GSL and
LPG based vehicles (Reality check)
[Justification- low distances travelled in the city, emission factor of
electricity]
• Reduction consumption of diesel for SH in residential sector (Évora mitigate) vs
higher consumption of natural gas and LPG – reduction of electricity high efficiency
techs;
• Reduction on the adoption of refurbishment and insulation technologies.
• Restriction of investment does limit the adoption of specific high efficient
technologies: ex: refrigerators (Reality check has only A+ refrigerators vs Évora
mitigate with above A+);
0%20%
-59%
32%
+23%
-30%
+23%+29%
CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017
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Results
LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF TIMES MODEL. Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems, 29th and 30th May, 2017. Madrid CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017
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• Challenge on passing the ideia of “optimization scenarios” to municipalities teams.
More concern to test ideas of specific measures, contrary to the support to define policy.
• TIMES_Évora provides the possibility to define ‘realistic’ action plans to support city
Sustainable Energy Action Plans (SEAP);
• Combine integrated long term strategic planning of the whole city energy system;
• Assessment of the more cost-effective configurations of the city energy system and the
necessary measures.
• Analysis of the role of the local energy demand side, considering real life constrains to
long term sustainable energy goals.
• In terms of environment components the model doesn’t included important aspects:
external impacts on land and resources consumption: solar pv
Conclusion
This tool supports city decision makers on the cost-optimal spatial and
sectoral specific portfolio of measures to assist the transition to a city
decarbonized energy system
LOCAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS - THE ROLE OF TIMES MODEL. Workshop on Sustainability Performance of the Energy Systems, 29th and 30th May, 2017. Madrid CENSE, NOVA-FCT, 2017
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http://cense.fct.unl.pt
https://www.facebook.com/
https://twitter.com/CENSE_FCT_UNL
https://www.linkedin.com/groups/CENSE-6694329
Luís Dias
http://www.insmartenergy.com/