consumer pulse 2013 between challenges ... - vietnam … d… · fmcg in vietnam is slowing down...
TRANSCRIPT
© Kantar Worldpanel
CONSUMER PULSE 2013
BETWEEN CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES
Urban 4 Key Cities and Rural Vietnam
CONSUMERS’ REACT
HOW ARE VIETNAMESE CONSUMERS COPING
WITH THE CURRENT ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN?
Prepared for M2 – ITV Asia event, HCMC 11th February 2015
This slideshow is from a presentation at the M2 Marketing & Media events in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam organized by ITV-Asia.com and VietnamBusiness.TV
To see videos from the events, interviews with speakers andto get information on upcoming M2 - Marketing & Media Network events
Please visit VietnamBusiness.TV
2
© Kantar Worldpanel
27.0
10.9
6.6 5.5 4.9
3.9 3.6
3.4 2.6
1.2 0.9
29.4
FMCG AND FRESH FOOD CONTINUE TO ACCOUNT FOR NEARLY 1/3 OF
VIETNAMESE CONSUMERS’ SHARE OF WALLET. SAVINGS OVERCAME
EDUCATION TO BECOME THE NUMBER 2 ITEM IN THIS YEAR!
How much money do you estimate to spend for your household on the following household functions in a typical month?
Source: Expenditure Survey 2014 – % Spending per month in Urban 4 Key Cities and Rural Vietnam
Fresh Food & FMCG
Savings
Education
Eating/Drinking
Utilities
Transportation
Communications
Housing
Travel/Holiday
Healthcare
Investment
Entertainment
Others URBAN 2014
29.3
11.7
11.1 10.5
6.6
6.1
4.2
3.9
3.9
3.5 2.3
2.2 4.7
Investment
+
Farming cost
(fertilizer, seeds,
animals,
materials…)
+
Others
RURAL 2014
6
© Kantar Worldpanel
Urban Rural
FMCG – 12 WEEKLY YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE (%)
Avg. Price paid* Value Volume**% change
*: To calculate FMCG price paid change, we calculate how much price contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions
and relate to value YA
**: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions
and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel – Households Panel – Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam - Total FMCG excluding Gift
-10
0
10
20
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
12 w
/e P
12'1
4 -10
0
10
20
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4'1
3
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
12 w
/e P
12'1
4
4.2%
10.5%
FMCG IN VIETNAM IS SLOWING DOWN FROM 2-DIGIT-NUMBER GROWTH
RATE IN THE PAST YEARS TO 1-DIGIT-NUMBER IN 2014 (averagely +6% in
Vietnam in 2014)
8
© Kantar Worldpanel
In the 2nd year of continuous
slowdown in FMCG, how do
consumers respond?
6 NOTICEABLE TRENDS IN FMCG CONSUMPTION IN URBAN
CONSUMERS PRIORITIZE TOWARDS NECESSITY BUT THERE’S
ROOM FOR SOME NICE-TO-HAVE ITEMS TO SHINE 1
2 STABILIZED SHOPPING CAPACITY
BIGGER PACKS 3
CONSUMERS SEEK FOR PROMOTION 4
DOWNTRADING ESP. AMONG LOWER INCOME GROUPS 5
MODERN TRADE IS LOSING GROUND TO PROVISION STORE 6
CONSUMERS PRIORITIZE TOWARDS NECESSITY…
THE MATURE CATEGORIES SEEM TO BE LESS IMPACTED BY THE MARKET SLOW-
DOWN. MEANWHILE, SOME NICE-TO-HAVE ARE SUFFERING THE DECLINE AND
SOME ARE STILL SHINING
Source: Kantar Worldpanel – Households Panel – Urban Vietnam 4 key cities – Total FMCG excluding Gift – YTD Q3’14 vs. YTD Q3’13
1
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Incre
me
nta
l P
en
etr
ation Y
TD
Q3
’14
vs Y
A
Penetration YTD Q3’14 (%)
… BUT THERE’S ROOM FOR SOME NICE-TO-HAVE ITEMS TO SHINE
SPEED & CONVENIENCE Yet, it should be communicated together with
other value such as HEALTH/HYGIENE
HAVING FUN & SHARING This is especially important for categories
targeting teenagers / youth
BRAND LED It can be offering new brands / variants
or communicating new news.
1 Instant Cereal 11 Snack & Nuts
2 Soya Milk 12 Oyster Sauce
3 Tonic Food Drink 13 Drinking Yogurt
4 Liquid Hand Wash 14 Bathroom Cleaner
5 Ready-To-Drink Tea 15 Baby Diaper
6 Chocolate 16 Instant Rice Soup
7 Bottled Water 17 Chilli Sauce
8 Energy Drink 18 CSD
9 Functional DKY 19 Instant Coffee
10 Liquid Detergent 20 Loose Leaf Tea
Source: Kantar Worldpanel – Households Panel – Urban Vietnam 4 key cities – Total FMCG excluding Gift – YTD Q3’14 vs. YTD Q3’13
1
WHAT ARE THE COMMON POINTS OF TOP
RECRUITERS? TOP RECRUITERS YTD P9’14
STABILIZED SHOPPING CAPACITY
CONSUMERS DO NOT FILL-UP THEIR BASKETS AND MAINTAIN THEIR SHOPPING
FREQUENCY INSTEAD OF CONTINUING BULKY BUYING TREND AS IN PREVIOUS
YEARS
2
Source: Kantar Worldpanel – Households Panel – Urban Vietnam 4 key cities – Total FMCG excluding Gift
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Ind
ex –
Ro
lling
24
w/e
cha
ng
e
Shopping Frequency
# of packs per trip
SEM.1 2013 SEM.1 2012 SEM.1 2011 SEM.1 2014 P914
FMCG – Urban Vietnam
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
BIGGER PACKS
THE MAJORITY OF FMCG CATEGORIES ARE STILL SEEING CONSUMERS
UPSIZING BUT WE ALSO DO SEE A DOWNSIZING TREND IN SOME CATEGORIES
Source: Kantar Worldpanel – Households Panel – Urban Vietnam 4 key cities – Total FMCG excluding Gift – YTD Q3’14 vs YA
3 A
vera
ge V
olu
me p
er
Buyer
Change (
%)
Average Pack Size Bought Change (%)
36% categories
18% categories 26% categories
20% categories
Source: Kantar Worldpanel – Households Panel – Urban Vietnam 4 key cities – Total FMCG excluding Gift
BIGGER PACKS
UPSIZING HAPPENS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF FMCG CATEGORIES,
ESPECIALLY IN HOME CARE
DISHWASING LIQUID >1L 40 44
POWDER DETERGENT > 4.5KG 24 31
SHAMPOO 500+ML 55 58
Penetration%
YTD Q3’13
YTD Q3’14
3
3.8 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.3
5.7 5.3
5.9 6.4
Low & MiddleIncome PC
Mid-high Income PC High Income PC
YTD Q3'12
YTD Q3'13
YTD Q3'14
CONSUMERS SEEK FOR PROMOTION CONTRIBUTION OF PROMOTIONAL ITEMS HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS ALL INCOME GROUPS
Source: Kantar Worldpanel – Households Panel – Urban Vietnam 4 key cities – Total FMCG excluding Gift
+3% +13% On items not under
promotion
On items
under promotion
Value spent on FMCG per family
YTD Q3’14 vs. YA
4
% Value Share of
Promotional Items in
Total FMCG Purchase
DOWNTRADING ESP. AMONG LOWER INCOME GROUPS
THE MAJORITY OF CONSUMERS ARE DOWNTRADING, ESP. AMONG LOWER
INCOME GROUPS
Source: Kantar Worldpanel – Households Panel – Urban Vietnam 4 key cities – Total FMCG excluding Gift
5
2.9%
4.3%
-1.4%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
FMCG Price Paid
Food Inflation
Up TradingYTD Q3’14 vs
year ago
FMCG source of change % - all families BY INCOME GROUPS
5.1%
2.0%
3.1%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
FMCG Price Paid
Food Inflation
Up TradingYTD Q3’13 vs
year ago
0.2%
2.4%
3.4%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Low Middle IncomePC
Mid-High Income PC
High Income PCYTD Q3’13 vs
year ago
-1.0%
-1.3%
0.2%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Low Middle IncomePC
Mid-High Income PC
High Income PCYTD Q3’14 vs
year ago
WHICH CATEGORIES ARE DOWNTRADED THE MOST?
65.3
27.0
50.2
82.6 86.6 87.7
FMCG PersonalCare
Dairy Beverages PackagedFoods
HomeCare
% Value Share of Uptrading Categories
% Value Share of Downtrading Categories
Source: Kantar Worldpanel – Households Panel – Urban Vietnam 4 key cities – Total FMCG excluding Gift
TOP DOWNTRADED
PACKAGED FOODS
Instant Noodles
Cooking Oil
Ice Cream
HOME CARE
Floor Cleaner
Dishwashing Liquid
Bathroom Cleaner
CONSUMERS OPT FOR CHEAPER PRICE OPTIONS WHEN IT COMES TO
HOME CARE & PACKAGED FOODS
5
PRIVATE LABEL STARTS TO BOUNCE BACK
‘Value’ products option growth experience early signs of bounce-back as modern trade is
gaining back its momentum, esp. in home care & packaged foods
Source: Kantar Worldpanel – Households Panel – Urban Vietnam 4 key cities – Total FMCG excluding Gift
% Value Share of Private Label
5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
12
w/e
201
1/1
2/0
4
12
w/e
201
2/0
1/0
1
12
w/e
201
2/0
1/2
9
12
w/e
201
2/0
2/2
6
12
w/e
201
2/0
3/2
5
12
w/e
201
2/0
4/2
2
12
w/e
201
2/0
5/2
0
12
w/e
201
2/0
6/1
7
12
w/e
201
2/0
7/1
5
12
w/e
201
2/0
8/1
2
12
w/e
201
2/0
9/0
9
12
w/e
201
2/1
0/0
7
12
w/e
201
2/1
1/0
4
12
w/e
201
2/1
2/0
2
12
w/e
201
2/1
2/3
0
12
w/e
201
3/0
1/2
7
12
w/e
201
3/0
2/2
4
12
w/e
201
3/0
3/2
4
12
w/e
201
3/0
4/2
1
12
w/e
201
3/0
5/1
9
12
w/e
201
3/0
6/1
6
12
w/e
201
3/0
7/1
4
12
w/e
201
3/0
8/1
1
12
w/e
201
3/0
9/0
8
12
w/e
201
3/1
0/0
6
12
w/e
201
3/1
1/0
3
12
w/e
201
3/1
2/0
1
12
w/e
201
3/1
2/2
9
12
w/e
201
4/0
1/2
6
12
w/e
201
4/0
2/2
3
12
w/e
201
4/0
3/2
3
12
w/e
201
4/0
4/2
0
12
w/e
201
4/0
5/1
8
12
w/e
201
4/0
6/1
5
12
w/e
201
4/0
7/1
3
12
w/e
201
4/0
8/1
0
12
w/e
201
4/0
9/0
7
FMCG Dairy Beverages
Packaged Foods Personal Care Household Products
MODERN TRADE IS LOSING GROUND (to Provision Store)
H+S IS LOSING GROUND WHILE STREET SHOPS ARE HOLDING STRONG COMPARED
WITH OTHER KEY CHANNELS, ESP. AMONG MID-HIGH INCOME GROUPS
Source: Kantar Worldpanel – Households Panel – Vietnam 4 key urban cities – Total FMCG excluding Gift
6
Street Shops Wet Market Modern Trade Specialty Direct Sales Others
62 12
18
4 2 2
62 11
18
5 2 2
62 11
17
5 2 3
YTD Q3’12 YTD Q3’13 YTD Q3’14
% Value Share
10.8 1.6
7.7
-16.0
88.9 3.2
-0.1 -0.1 -9.2
19.8
-30.0
-10.0
10.0
30.0
Street Shops Wet Market Hyper & Super Cash & Carry Ministore
YTD Q3'13 vs. YA YTD Q3'14 vs. YA
% Value Growth
22
© Kantar Worldpanel
HYPER+SUPER (H&S) IS LOSING GROUND
H+S is now less competitive in consumer mindset especially in quality and price. As
a result, consumers are less willing to shop at these channels.
60
54
50
55
58 57
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
“I think the price in H+S is
higher than in traditional
trade”
PERCEIVED AS HIGHER
PRICE LOWER PERCEPTION OF
PRODUCT QUALITY NOT AS PROMISING AS
IT USED TO BE
“H+S propose higher
quality of products”
65
61
59
56
58
53
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
“In the future I will go to
purchase in Super/Hyper
more often” 59
57
55 54
52
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Kantar Worldpanel – Lifestyle Survey 2014– Urban 4 cities
6
23
© Kantar Worldpanel
Still #1 in rank
PROXIMITY AND QUALITY ARE TOP PRIORITIES
The store is clean
It’s near my home or on my way back home
It has good quality products
85%
79%
78%
Top 3 reasons to choose a store
Jump from
rank #5
in 2013
Source: Kantar Worldpanel – Lifestyle Survey – Urban 4 key cities
% Agree it’s important
Jump from
rank #3
in 2013
1
2
3
6
PROXIMITY IS
KEY BUT
GROWTH OF
H+S IS STILL
EXPECTED IN
THE LONG
RUN
THINK OF
PRODUCT
RELEVANCY &
AFFORDABLE
PACK FOR NICE-
TO HAVE
PRODUCTS
TO BE
COMPETITIVE
IN THIS
CONTEXT, WE
RECOMMEND
BRANDS TO…
COMMUNICATE
VALUE (SAVING
BENEFIT &
PROMOTION)
FOR HOME
CARE AND
NECESSITIES
TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF
SHIFTING
NEEDS WHEN IT
COMES TO
PRICE TIER &
PACK SIZE
PROPOSITION
© Kantar Worldpanel
Thank you!
This slideshow is from a presentation at the M2 Marketing & Media events in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam organized by ITV-Asia.com and VietnamBusiness.TV
To see videos from the events, interviews with speakers andto get information on upcoming M2 - Marketing & Media Network events
Please visit VietnamBusiness.TV