consumer information session information... · • we measure inflation using cpi. • in...
TRANSCRIPT
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Consumer information
session:
The Building Block Model
November 2017
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Outline
Overview of the AER roles in networks
The regulatory process we follow
Building block model Capital base
Return on capital
Return of capital (depreciation)
Capital Expenditure (Capex)
Operating and Maintenance Expenditure (Opex)
Revenue adjustments and incentive scheme payments
Revenue smoothing
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AER Networks Role
• AER has two broad energy network
regulation roles
– approving the amount of revenue that
transmission and distribution network
businesses can recover from customers for
using networks. This is done through the
regulatory determination process
– networks pricing and oversight
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Regulatory process
• Framework and Approach
• Classification of services
• Control mechanism (Revenue caps, Price cap, other)
• Incentive Schemes
• Regulatory proposal (network service provider)
– Building block inputs
– Application of incentive schemes etc.
• AER publishes issues paper and holds public
forum
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Regulatory process
• AER calls for submissions
• AER draft decision
– Revised proposal
– Submissions
• AER final decision
• Appeal
– Previously subject to Judicial review and
Limited merits review
– Judicial review only from 30 October 2017 5
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Regulatory process
• Post final decision:
– Annual pricing
– Annual reporting
– Cost pass throughs
– Ongoing compliance, e.g. contingent projects
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Objectives of regulation
Our regulatory objectives are to promote
outcomes in the long term interest of
customers.
Revenue should reflect:
• Efficient costs, and
• An appropriate level of service quality
Various regulatory models could be used
to achieve these objectives.
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Building blocks
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Return on capital
(projected capital base × rate of return)
Regulatory depreciation
Operating expenditure
Corporate income tax
Capital costs
Incentive mechanism
(increment or decrement)
Total revenue
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Building block proportions
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52.8%
11.1%
29.9%
2.2% 4.0%
return on capital return of capitaloperating expenditure revenue adjustmentstax allowance
NSW Electricity DNSPs
Building Block Revenue (Real 2014-15)
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Building block model
Revenue requirement = opex + depreciation + tax + (WACC × Regulatory Asset Base)
• Requires forecasts for each year of the regulatory control period:– Regulatory Asset Base (RAB)
– Operating expenditure (opex)
– Capital expenditure (capex)
– Market conditions (e.g. demand, input costs)
– Financial conditions (e.g. interest rates, inflation)
– Other (incentive payments)10
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The regulatory asset base (RAB)
• The regulatory asset base (RAB) or capital
base is the record of all assets on which
service providers require returns
• The National Electricity Rules (NER)
prescribe that we update the RAB as
follows:
RABt = RABt-1 x (1+ Inflationt-1) +
Capext-1 ̶ Regulatory depreciationt-1
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The regulatory asset base (RAB)
• Regulatory Asset Base (RAB)
RABt = RABt-1 x (1+ Inflationt-1) + Capext –Depreciationt
Defines how the RAB rolls forward over time
• The size of the RAB affected by the size of capex and the rate of depreciation
• At the same time, the RAB impacts the size of the depreciation allowance and return on capital
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Capex: examples
• Design & negotiations
• Materials purchase and
transport
• Erection, testing and
connection
• Capital refurbishment
• Replacement (45-75
years later)13
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Capex: techniques
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– Economic benchmarking
– Trend analysis
– Category analysis
• Overall cost within each category of capex
• Unit costs across a range of activities
• Volumes across a range of activities
• Asset lives, across a range of asset classes which we use in assessing repex
– Predictive modelling
• The repex model
• The augex model
– Engineering review
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Regulatory depreciation
• Objective of regulatory depreciation – sunk
cost recovery – SL/DV
• Depreciation interacts with various building
blocks – often a ‘blunt instrument’
• Period of recovery matters – Economic life
• Profile of recovery matters
– NPV neutrality not efficiency
– Front or back loading or flat
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Regulatory depreciation
• Regulatory depreciation is based on straight line
depreciation, adjusted to offset double counting
of inflation that would otherwise arise from
multiplying a nominal rate of return by an indexed
RAB
• We could alternatively achieve identical
outcomes with an indexed RAB and a real
WACC.
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Inflation
• We measure inflation using CPI.
• In determinations, we use both forecast inflation
for revenue determinations, and actual inflation to
update the RAB from the last determination.
• We forecast inflation using an average of the
RBA’s two years of forward forecasts, and using
the midpoint of the target band (2.5 per cent) for
the remaining band.17
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Return on capital
• Return on capital = WACC × Regulatory
Asset Base
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Rate of Return (WACC)
• The rate of return is the estimated
percentage return for an investment of
similar risk
• It is a weighted average of:
– the required return on equity
– the required return on debt
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Return on equity
• We estimate the return on equity using a 7-step
process
• The ‘foundation model’ is a Sharpe-Lintner
CAPM:
Return on equity = Rf + β x MRP
• We also have regard to other sources of
evidence in forming aspects of our estimate
(DGMs, market broker estimates/commentary,
Black CAPM etc)
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Return on debt
• Estimating the return on debt involves a
number of different steps:
– establishing benchmark characteristics (term,
credit rating)
– establishing the approach to return on debt (on
the day vs trailing average, transition)
– establishing the approach to implement the
return on debt (choice of data series, annual
testing, extrapolation/interpolation, averaging
periods) 21
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Tax and ‘Gamma’
• Service providers are compensated for a
benchmark tax allowance
• However, under the imputation tax system,
eligible investors receive franking credits to
reduce their taxes to reflect prepayment of
personal tax at a company tax level
• So, to prevent ‘double compensation’, we
reduce the tax allowance to reflect the value of
imputation credits to investors
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Building Blocks - Opex
• Inspections
• Testing
• Vegetation clearance
• Preventative
maintenance
• Emergency maintenance
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Opex forecasts• Generally opex is largely recurrent, we estimate opex
using a ‘base-step-trend’ approach:
– Base: First, we determine an efficient base year as a starting point for the opex allowance. Often this is the third or fourth year of the previous period. We then undertake top-down benchmarking and qualitative assessment to determine whether the base year is efficient, and if not, what adjustments are necessary.
– Step: Step changes account for any material changes in opex compared to the base year. For example, this might reflect new regulatory obligations etc.
– Trend: The trend aspect impacts how the base year is increased (or decreased) over the regulatory period. It reflects factors such as forecast changes in labour or materials prices, growth in the size of the network etc.
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Incentive arrangements
•Provides for a fair sharing between NSPs and
network users of opex efficiency gains and
losses made during a regulatory control periodEBSS
•Provide incentives for NSPs to maintain and
improve service performanceSTPIS
•Provide incentives for DNSPs to implement
efficient non-network alternatives and manage
demandDMIS
•Allow for the benefits/costs of capex
underspends/overspends to be shared between
NSPs and their customersCESS
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EBSS - opex
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• Under the EBSS a service provider retains 30 per cent of the benefit or cost of an underspend or overspend, while consumers retain 70 per cent of the benefit or cost of an underspend or overspend.
• This provides a continuous incentive for a service provider to pursue efficiency improvements in its opex.
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CESS - capex• Under the CESS a service provider retains 30 per cent of
the benefit or cost of an underspend or overspend, while consumers retain 70 per cent of the benefit or cost of an underspend or overspend.
• This provides a continuous incentive to defer/avoid capex.
• In the absence of an incentive scheme cost reductions achieved in a single period would lead to level of revealed cost at commencement of next period.
• The incentive to pursue further efficiencies would be reduced or removed. Leading to potential for ‘cost padding’.
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Demand management incentives
• Demand management refers to any strategy to
address growth in demand and/or peak demand
• We currently allow a relatively small demand
management incentive allowance to encourage
service providers to implement efficient non-
network alternatives or to manage expect
demand in some other way.
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Service performance incentives
• Under normal arrangements, service providers
can profit by reducing expenditure on network
maintenance and replacement, leading to
blackouts
• The service target performance incentive
scheme (STPIS) addresses this potential
problem, by providing incentives linked to
reliability and service quality
• Applied during annual pricing process as
adjustment to MAR29
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Building block revenue
• Maximum Allowed Revenue (MAR)
MARt = RABt-1xWACC + Depreciationt + Opext +
Revenue adjustmentt
Defines how the maximum allowed revenue is set, based on the
RAB
• The assessment of building block costs may result in a
MAR that varies from year to year
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Revenue Smoothing
• An assessment of building blocks may result in a revenue stream that is lumpy (unsmoothed)
• Lumpiness or variability in revenues would ultimately translate to price variation
• To avoid significant price variation requires the path of revenue to be smoothed over time relative to the path of expenditure
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Revenue smoothing
• Revenue smoothing applied to unsmoothed revenue to reduce price volatility:
– Within a regulatory control period
– Between regulatory control periods
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Revenue smoothing
• To smooth revenues within period adjust
revenue in each year using CPI minus X
formula
• X factor represents the change in real
revenue/price from year-to-year
• X factor forms an input in the control
formula applied to revenues or prices in
annual pricing. It is updated annually for
change in cost of debt. 33
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Revenue smoothing example
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PTRM – X factors worksheet
Year 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
Revenue Cap Calculation ($m, Nominal)
Unsmoothed - Annual Revenue
Requirement 164.81 153.48 164.03 161.06 160.65 169.32 $643.91
NPV
(unsmoothed)
5.59
First year difference ($m)
4.04-
Final year
difference ($m)
3.6% First year difference (%) -2.4%
Final year
difference (%)
Smoothed - Expected Revenue 164.81 159.07 159.79 160.51 162.88 165.28 $643.91 NPV (smoothed)
X Factors P_0 X_02 X_03 X_04 X_05
positive P0, X imply real decrease
in price/ revenue constraint
5.83% 2.00% 2.00% 1.00% 1.00% $0.00
NPV difference
(smoothed vs
unsmoothed)
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Revenue smoothing example
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
Return on Capital Depreciation Opex Rev. Adj. Tax Previous Period Rev. Smoothed revenue
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CPI − X
• PTRM determines revenue on a nominal basis
• Nominal values are the prices paid by end users
or consumers
• CPI measures change in price level in general
economy
• X factor measures ‘real’ change in revenue or
prices of individual service provider based on
assessment of building blocks
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Revenue smoothing example
• X factors are set so that the NPV
smoothed revenue is equal to the NPV of
unsmoothed revenue
• Revenue are smoothed also to minimise
the difference in smoothed an unsmoothed
revenue in the final year of the regulatory
period
• This constraint helps reduce price
variation between periods37
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After the determination process
• Legal appeals
• Annual pricing and service standards
compliance
• Pass throughs and contingent projects
• Information gathering and reporting
• Guideline development
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Conclusion
• AER’s determination is to set revenues
based on the forecast benchmark efficient
costs of regulated business
• For further questions please contact:
– Michael Wydeveld
– Anton Tuomainen
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