consumer futures in tourism tmi conference, 15 october 2004 david geddes
TRANSCRIPT
Consumer Futures in Tourism
TMI Conference, 15 October 2004David Geddes
Socio-Demographic
Travel
Destinations
Expectations
Socio-Demographic
Travel
Destinations
Expectations
Going up…disposable incomeReal* Household Disposable Income per Head in the UK.
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
Note:Index (1971=100). *Adjusted to real terms using the expenditure deflator for the household sector. Source:Office for National Statistics 2002
Going up...spend on discretionary items
Source: Mintel, British Lifestyle 2002Note: £bn* - Gross Discretionary Spend
Long Term Household Expenditure Trends 1991 - 2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Food
Drinks
Toba
cco
Eatin
g Out
Out-o
f-Hom
e En
terta
inm
ent
Leisur
e Goo
ds
Holid
ays
Cloth
ing
Toile
tries
& M
edicin
e
Gross Discretionary Spend £bn
1991 2001 2006
Going up…the Middle Class
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
ABC1
C2DE
Note:Unweighted base. All persons aged 16 or over. Socio-economic group is based on the informants own job (or last job if not in employment). Excludes those in Armed forces or people who have never worked.. Source:Office for National Statistics 2002
Going up…older age groups
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64
1991 Census Population
2007 population projections
Note: Percentage of total UK population by age category. Projections based on 1991 census data.Source: CACI, 2001
“Silver Surfers”
Goin
g U
p
The PeterPan Generation
Goin
g U
p
Goin
g U
p The ConvenienceSociety
Socio-Demographic
Travel
Destinations
Expectations
Goin
g U
p
Going Places
Going up…no frills
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
20000
19971998
19992000
20012002
’00
0’s
pass
en
gers
EasyJetRyanair
Source: CAA/Ryanair.com/easyJet.com/Mintel
*
*Note: easyJet purchase of Go.
Going up...visiting friends and relatives
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Note: Domestic staying visits within the UK staying with friends or relatives (millions)Source: UKTS 1990-2002
Millions
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Millions
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002Note: Domestic staying visits within the UK for business purposes (millions)Source: UKTS 1995-2002, readjusted pre-2000
Going up...business tourism
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Going up…short breaks
Note: Domestic holidays of 1-3 nights within the UK (millions)Source: UKTS 1995-2002, readjusted pre-2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Millions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Going down…domestic long holidaysEngland and UK
Overseas
Note: UK residents long holidays (+4 nights) to England and abroad (millions )Source: Social Trends Dataset, BTA 1971–1998.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
* Change in data collection methodology
*Millions
Going down... overseas visitors (exc VFR)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Thousands
Going up... UK Tourism Balance of Payments Deficit - £13bn swing in 13 years!
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Source: IPS 2002
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Bill
ion
s
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Outbound Inbound Balance of payments
Socio-Demographic
Travel
Destinations
Expectations
Cities
Goin
g U
p
Traditional ResortsGoin
g D
ow
n
Still popular…trips to the sea sidePlaces visited for a day out in 2003
Source: BMRB/Mintel - Days Out - UK - April 2004
Seaside Resorts 53%
City / Town 35%
Retail Complex 33%
Beauty Spot 29%
Country Park 29%
Museum or Gallery 26%
Stately Homes 25%
Goin
g U
p
GettingAway from
Cars
Goin
g U
p
Hankering forthe Med lifestyle
- all yearround
Goin
g U
p
Homogeneity
Goin
g U
p
Desire to escapeHomogeneity
Goin
g U
p
Authenticity
Goin
g U
p
Being by Water
Goin
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p
Eating and drinkingby Water
Most Visitor AttractionsGoin
g D
ow
n
Goin
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p
Destinationsbased on inspiration
Brands
Goin
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p
Goin
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p
Budget Hotels - they have established a new
benchmark for minimum standards
Quality Independents
and “Boutiques”G
oin
g U
p
Casinos
Goin
g U
p
Socio-Demographic
Travel
Destinations
Expectations
Expectationsof Quality
Goin
g U
p
Learning about quality fromthe Competition
It is quicker and cheaper to get toDubrovnik thanto Windermerefrom London
Lots of tourists
(on short break
from London?)
Nice places to eat,
drink and
people watch
Nice places to
Shop
Nice toPromenade
Pedestrian Friendly
Quality from ground up
No GaudyFacia
QualityStreet
Furniture
Nice at night
Animated
Strong Cultural
Offer
ModernToilets
Lesson from the Competition
They Seem to Care More
The Qualitymatches modern
expectations
www.locum-destination.com
For copy of the presentation, please email dgeddes@locum-
destination.com