consumer confidenc e - nielsen · 2019. 5. 29. · consumer confidence a canadian perspective 1...
TRANSCRIPT
-
1CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: A CANADIAN PERSPECTIVE – Q1 2014 Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
CONSUMER CONFIDENCEA CANADIAN PERSPECTIVE Q1 2014
-
2 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: A CANADIAN PERSPECTIVE – Q1 2014
CONFIDENCE BOUNCES BACK TO PRE-RECESSIONARY LEVELS GLOBALLY, BUT HOLDS IN CANADA Despite rising consumer confidence levels in the world’s largest
economies, Canadian optimism remains flat.
The Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index measures views
about job prospects, personal finances and the ability and willingness
to spend. These economic indicators are captured in a consumer
confidence level. A score of 100 is considered neutral. Levels above and
below that number show degrees of optimism and pessimism.
At 99, Canada’s confidence level was just under that baseline. That’s
down just slightly from 100 in the final quarter of 2013.
The stagnant Canadian confidence level also comes at a time when
confidence levels are up elsewhere. Globally, consumer confidence
returned to pre-recession levels, with an index score of 96 in the first
quarter of 2014 – up three points from this time last year, while Canada
is down three points over that period.
The global confidence level is the highest in the Nielsen surveys since
Q1 2007. Exactly five years, in Q1 of 2009, the global index recorded its
lowest score of 77.
Across the world’s six biggest economies, five demonstrated consumer
confidence gains. The U.S. confidence level is up six points, and at 100
is now higher than Canada’s confidence level.
-
3CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: A CANADIAN PERSPECTIVE – Q1 2014 Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
CANADA GLOBAL
100
99
97
98
102
Q4 2013
Q1 2014 Q1 2014
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
94
96
94
94
93
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
“When it comes to consumer confidence, Canada’s in a bit of a holding
pattern while the majority of other countries take a step forward”, says
Carman Allison, vice president, Consumer Insights, Nielsen Canada.
Looking at many of the measures that make up the confidence index,
Canadian perceptions have actually remained steady. “Yet there are a
few warning bells,” explains Allison. “In the first quarter of the year, we
saw notable increases in the percentage of Canadians who feel we’re in a
recession, and who have changed their shopping patterns to save. At the
same time, when we look at what Canadians are doing with spare cash,
saving strategies are outpacing spending strategies.”
-
4 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: A CANADIAN PERSPECTIVE – Q1 2014
RECESSION FEARS RISEIn Q1, Canada showed an increase in the number of people who feel that
the country is in recession – 47%, which is up five percentage points but
back to the levels mid last year. That comes after a similar big swing,
downward, in recession perception in the final quarter of 2013.
In contrast, 55% of people globally say their country is still in recession,
and that’s down from 57%. While the recessionary mindset is back to
previous levels in Canada, it’s falling in the U.S. 63% of Americans now
say their country is in recession, down from 71%. The narrowing of the
gap between Canadian and American perceptions, despite the fact that
the U.S. economy was much harder hit, may be a temporary blip or a
troubling indicator.
CANADA
47%
47%42%
47%
49%
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q3 2013
DO YOU THINK YOUR COUNTRY IS IN AN ECONOMIC RECESSION AT THE MOMENT? (% ANSWERING YES)
-
5CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: A CANADIAN PERSPECTIVE – Q1 2014 Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
MORE CANADIANS TRY TO PINCH PENNIESIn looking at their household expenses, more Canadians are employing
cost-cutting strategies. More than 6 in 10 Canadians, 63%, say they’ve
changed their shopping patterns compared to this time last year. That’s well
up from both the 55% who said the same in Q4 2013, and the 59% who said
so in Q3 of 2014.
“The desires to save and cut expenses are fueling a number of fast-moving
consumer goods trends, with more consumers shopping discount retail
formats and buying on promotion at record levels,” says Allison. “Currently
36% of retail sales are sold with a price cut – an increase from 27% since
2008.”
Nielsen inquires about 15 savings habits. A high percentage of Canadians
recognize the bite of take-away meals. Cutting back in that category showed
the biggest increase by far, as 60% of people now say they are looking to
save there.
Except for that category, the top eight are in the same order (the percentage
change from the Q4 survey is in parentheses). Besides take-away meals, the
category with the biggest change is car usage. 26% of Canadians surveyed
say they use it less often, vs. 31% in the previous survey.
Cut down on take-away meals: 60% (+10)Try to save on gas and electricity: 54% (+3)Spend less on new clothes: 54% (/)Cut down on out-of-home entertainment: 50% (+1)Switch to cheaper grocery brands: 48% (/)Delay upgrading technology (PC, mobile, etc.): 32% (-3)Delay replacing major household items: 31% (-2)Cut down on holidays/short breaks: 30% (-3)Cut down on telephone expenses: 28% (/)Use my car less often: 26% (-5)Cut out annual vacation: 25% (+1)Cut down on at-home entertainment: 23% (-5)Look for better deals on home loans, insurance, credit cards, etc.: 20% (-4)Cut down on or buy cheaper brands of alcohol: 16% (-2)Cut down on smoking: 13% (+2)
-
6 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: A CANADIAN PERSPECTIVE – Q1 2014
GREATER FOCUS ON SAVINGS STRATEGIESNielsen routinely asks what people do with their money after covering
essential living expenses. Here, we see almost no movement in spending
strategies from Q4. On the savings side, however, more Canadians
are putting money towards their own financial well-being in three key
categories- paying off debt, more savings and investing.
“Canadians continue to be focused on repairing the household balance
sheet with saving strategies ranking higher than spending strategies,”
says Allison.
-
7CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: A CANADIAN PERSPECTIVE – Q1 2014 Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
WHAT DO YOU DO WITH YOUR SPARE CASH?
19% 42%
40%
14%
18%
20%
22%
14%
20%
25%
15% 38%
38%
10%
15%
28%
23%
15%
22%
29%
20% 37%
38%
11%
15%
19%
21%
17%
19%
26%
18%18%
35%39%
39%41%
11%14%
18%17%
19%20%
19%19%
15%16%
17%18%
28%28%
SPENDING STRATEGIES SAVING STRATEGIES
OUT-OF-HOME ENTERTAINMENT
PAYING OFF DEBTS/ CREDIT CARDS/LOANS
PUTTING INTO SAVINGSNEW CLOTHES
NEW TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTS
INVESTING IN SHARES OF STOCK/MUTUAL FUNDS
HOME IMPROVEMENTS/ DECORATING
RETIREMENT FUND
I HAVE NO SPARE CASHHOLIDAYS/VACATIONS
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014
-
8 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: A CANADIAN PERSPECTIVE – Q1 2014
IS THIS A GOOD OR BAD TIME TO BUY?CANADA
EXCELLENT3%3%3%
5%4%
39%38%
37%39%
41%GOOD
39%41%42%
42%
44%
NOT GOOD
15%14%
13%13%
12%BAD
VIEWS ON FINANCES AND CLIMATE TO BUY STAY STATICWhat is holding Canadians back from loosening their pocketbooks?
Feelings about their finances and whether it’s a good time to buy aren’t
down – but they also aren’t improving.
Just about half of Canadians (51%) consider their finances to be good.
That has stayed the same for four consecutive quarters, but is down from
60% from the Q1 survey one year ago.
Likewise, when asked if it’s the right time to buy what they need and want,
considering their finances and costs, Canadians aren’t overly optimistic.
Over the past year, the percentage of people saying “yes” has gone down,
up, and now down again for two straight quarters. In Q1 2014, just over 4
in 10 (42%) agreed that this was a good or excellent time to buy.
Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014
-
9CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: A CANADIAN PERSPECTIVE – Q1 2014 Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
JOB PROSPECTS SEEN AS FLATCanadian attitudes towards job prospects also have barely moved in a
year. 52% rate job prospects as good or excellent. In the previous four
Nielsen surveys, the numbers were 52%, 51% or 50%.
In the first quarter of the year, Canada’s unemployment rate was 7%,
7% and 6.9% in January, February and March. Though Canada did gain
190,000 jobs from the end of Q1 2013 to the end of Q1 2014, Statistics
Canada reports that overall employment growth has been subdued since
August 2013. Despite that, job security has actually dropped on the list
of top Canadian concerns.
HOW DO YOU RATE
JOB PROSPECTS?
CANADA Q1
2013
CANADA Q2
2013
CANADA Q3
2013
CANADA Q4
2013
CANADA Q1
2014
Excellent 4% 4% 4% 5% 5%
Good 46% 47% 46% 47% 47%
Not good 38% 34% 37% 35% 35%
Bad 5% 7% 7% 7% 7%
-
10 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: A CANADIAN PERSPECTIVE – Q1 2014
WHAT IS YOUR BIGGEST
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
SIX MONTHS?
#1
CONCERN
#2
CONCERNTOTAL
Debt 16% 12% 28% (/)
The economy 14% 10% 24% (+4)
Increasing utility bills 8% 13% 21% (+2)
Health 12% 7% 19% (+1)
Job security 11% 8% 19% (-2)
Increasing food prices 6% 12% 18% (+1)
Work-life balance 9% 6% 15% (/)
DEBT IS STILL #1 WORRYWhile debt is still the top concern of Canadians, worries about the
economy in general showed the biggest increase.
This flies in the face of global outlooks, and indeed forecasts for Canada.
In April, the International Monetary Fund said the global economy is
strengthening, and increased its growth forecast for Canada. The IMF
suggested that Canada will benefit from a rebounding U.S. economy
through 2014. However, the IMF added that weaker than expected
exports, high household debt and high housing prices all pose economic
risks to Canada.
“The question on the minds of many consumers; Will the bubble burst?”
Here are the seven issues that Canadians are most worried about over
the next six months. The numbers in parentheses notes the percentage
change from the Q4 Nielsen survey.
“With consumer attitudes stuck in a holding pattern, fast-moving
consumer goods spending patterns in Canada continue to move
sideways,” says Allison. “That’s evident by nearly flat unit sales gains
of just 0.5% in the first quarter.”
-
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: A CANADIAN PERSPECTIVE – Q1 2014
ABOUT THE SURVEY The Nielsen Global Online Survey was conducted February 17 to March
4, 2014, and polled more than 30,000 consumers online in 60 countries
throughout Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa
and North America. The sample has quotas based on age and sex
for each country based on their Internet users, and is weighted to be
representative of Internet consumers and has a maximum margin of
error of ±0.6%.
This Nielsen survey is based on the behavior of respondents with online
access only. Internet penetration rates vary by country. Nielsen uses a
minimum reporting standard of 60 percent Internet penetration or 10M
online population for survey inclusion. The China Consumer Confidence
Index is compiled from a separate mixed methodology survey among
3,500 respondents in China. The Nielsen Global Survey, which includes
the Global Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions Survey, was
established in 2005.
ABOUT NIELSEN Nielsen Holdings N.V. (NYSE: NLSN) is a global information and
measurement company with leading market positions in marketing
and consumer information, television and other media measurement,
online intelligence and mobile measurement. Nielsen has a presence in
approximately 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA and
Diemen, the Netherlands.
For more information, visit www.nielsen.com.
Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Nielsen and
the Nielsen logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of CZT/ACN
Trademarks, L.L.C. Other product and service names are trademarks or
registered trademarks of their respective companies. 14/7750
-
12 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: A CANADIAN PERSPECTIVE – Q1 2014