What are the most viable solutions to the airport capacity problems the UK government currently faces?

Project manager- Bethany Allard

Senior consultant- Kyle Taylor

Research analyst- Kurt Baker

Research analyst- Richard Moody What are the most viable solutions to the airport capacity problems the UK government currently faces?

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Hypothesis We believe the UK is facing a monumental aviation issue that needs radical and holistic solutions; to address the on going airport capacity problems , through delivering short term resolutions yet fostering opportunities to create a long term aviation legacy

As a consultancy we have constructed this presentation to forward across the importance of the aviation industry as issues the current problem it faces.3

The current issueHeathrow is the only airport in the UK with hub characteristics- currently at 98% capacity (www.telegraph.co.uk)

Imposes major problems- no room for new airlines, heavy traffic on runways, growth at a standstill

Lack of expansion- airlines are going elsewhere for growth

We are here to identify and recommend options for maintaining the UKs status as an international hub for aviation

The lack of expansion means that capacity has remained at a current level and many airlines have looked elsewhere for growth. 4

Why is UK aviation so important?

(www.frontier-economics.com)The growth of the aviation industry has increased road and rail connectivity in the UK- the expansion of these services can help rebalance regional economies

Economically, the aviation industry is pivotal to the UKs growth and employment opportunities

Good air connectivity is frequently cited as an important factor in business location decisions (www.shareweb.kent.gov.uk)

Plays crucial role in economic success of the UK

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20x

Industry trendsMore than half of trade say the South East needs greater airport capacity (www.wtmlondon.com)

One in three of the industry support Heathrow expansion (www.wtmlondon.com)Global predicted increase, to 3.6 billion travellers a year, by 2016(www.chapman-freeborn.com)(www.frontier-economics.com)

As many UK businesses trade with emerging markets that have a daily direct flight than those that do not

The 2012 World Travel Market released their report mid November based on consumer and trade opinions in regards to the UK airport capacity Issue. Here is what they said..

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Our trends

of all respondents associated London as the most recognised city in the UK

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Possible solutions- GatwickPositiveNegativeTransformation into an international hub. Need a second runway to be able to cope with an expected 30 % rise in passenger numbers over the next 20 years. (www.reuters.com)

Significantly lower environmental impact whilst adding significantly more capacity (www.reuters.com )

A new runway could increase annual passenger levels to more than 60 million a year (www.dailymail.co.uk)Closely surrounded by villages of Crawley, Horley and a historic Village of Charlswood- major impacts upon noise pollution with residents

A high-speed link between Gatwick and Heathrow would be a long-term project and expensive

Could take away its status of the busiest runway airport in the world

Gatwick is the world's largest single runway airport where more than half the flights are low cost. Approximately just one in 10 use Gatwick to transfer to other flights Recently Gatwick have proposed a plan to expand Gatwick by building a second runway to create a combined hub with Heathrow called Heathwick. 8

Possible solutions- BirminghamPositiveNegativeEncourage Regional Growth Relieves pressure of Heathrow

Relatively low costs of 65M(www.expressandstar.com)

Job creation- 20,000 new jobs could be created by the extension (www.airport-int.com)

High level transport links- the HS2 to London which takes around 49 minutes to travels from Birmingham to London (www.telegraph.co.uk) Unfamiliar destination

Congestion on the already busy motorways surrounding Birmingham

Confederation of British Industries are more focused on a one airport model

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Seizing the opportunity

We face 21st century challenges that the short term patching up of our aging infrastructure cannot overcome(Lord Foster, 2012)

As a consultancy we decided not to use these solutions as we feel there is an opportunity for the UK aviation industry to re establish itself by creating a new global leading icon.KYLE10

Our solution- Thames Estuary

London IS IconicLondon IS aspirationalLondon IS connected London IS sustainable

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Swot AnalysisStrengths Weaknesses Position the UK as The global gateway on a international scale

Purpose built infrastructure for the 21st Century and beyond

A multi purpose hub connecting London to the UK and Europe through integrated infrastructure ( www.architectsjournal.co.uk)

Reinforce the UKs political and economic powers to the worldHuge cost estimated at 50 billion for the airport and 30 billion by tax payers for infrastructure improvements (www.architectsjournal.co.uk)

Environmental damage caused by construction, especially the local flora and fauna ( www.shareweb.kent.gov.uk)

Large scale of the project and coloration of partners and companies

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Swot Analysis Opportunities ThreatsCould generate up to 150 billion in economic benefits (www.architectsjournal.co.uk)

Incorporate sustainable development such as a new Thames Barrier flood defence system and hydropower stations

Reduce airport emissions related deaths by 60-70%(lwww.lae.mit.edu) Become the largest infrastructure project the UK has recently seenOther European Hub-Airports experiencing growth (www.baa.com)

Estimated 10-15 years to construct (www.architectsjournal.co.uk)

46% of MPs support expansion of Heathrow (www.standard.co.uk)

Validity of the idea

Risk of inertia

Lack of overall support from society

117 related deaths a year are caused by pollution from Heathrow. Moving traffic to the Thames means the pollution would halm less people. Validity=Many ideas and concepts saying this could work etc, but how realistic is it. Time of ecomic down turn etc?

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Blueprint

(www.architectsjournal.co.uk)(www.architectsjournal.co.uk)(www.architectsjournal.co.uk)(www.standard.co.uk)

KYLE14

Stakeholder Involvement

Nathan StowerParliamentary and external liaison manager (Virgin Atlantic)

Daniel MoylanCouncilman/ deputy chairman of Transport for London

Andy HoldingGovernmental and external affairs officer (Birmingham Airport)Infrastructure can be used as a key driver in the planning process of any expansion- starting from scratch means minimizing environmental impacts and moving the UK forward98% capacity, does not mean 98% efficiency. Why travel to a London airport, when regional airports can relive pressure and allow aviation to spread. We have the facilities to meet the demands of passengerswe just need the passengersWe are the 3rd largest airliner at Heathrow, yet only have 3% of the slots, whilst BA has 50%. A new airport hub would allow us the opportunity to expand and improve choice for passengers

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Short term recommendations

However- short term solution whilst development is underway: regional airports

Relieves pressure off Heathrow- lower their 98% capacity

Stimulating revival in regional areas- rebalancing economic growth within the UK

Chance for less popular UK airports to regain popularity in the skies

As the issue is very problematic and complex, we decided the best way to help solve the issue is to come out with a short term solution whilst the long term solution is in place. 16

Long term recommendationsThames Estuary

Iconic uniqueness of the infrastructure- seizing the opportunity

Regeneration- can be done

Multi purpose development

A sustainable start

For the Thames Estuary to become a viable solution to end the current problem, we suggestFor example, the airport could become an icon and visitor attraction in itself and enhancing the UKs modern image and brand. It could heighten attraction from domestic markets with UK residents Sustainability could be incorporated and implemented within the planning and building process of the Thames- will be a connected and efficient airport.Multi purpose- cohesion and use with other industries- for example, a bullring shopping mall (retail industry), hospitality industry Regeneration- The 2012 Olympic games saw the Stratford district completely regenerated- fuelling better lifestyles for residents and enhancing the image of London and the UK So arguably, the Thames could do the same- improve housing developments and the surrounding residential area and therefore enhancing the image of London and sustaining the legacy from the games.

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Project OverviewBased on research, stakeholder communication and consumer behaviour we have collectively provided a possible solutions for addressing the issue now and in the long term

All solutions are problematic - is the ideal solution truly viable

Based on our findings, the complexity of all stakeholders involved is the problem itself

However, until the government finalises their decision- the problem still remains

Could foster regeneration of near by areas- as seen in Stratford in the 2012 Olympic games. From our extensive research each airport has positive and negative impacts from expanding- Encourage a more detailed white paper from the government commission to allow a more specific decision to be made

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Thank you for listening. Any questions?Project manager- Bethany Allard

Senior consultant- Kyle Taylor

Research analyst- Kurt Baker

Research analyst- Richard Moody

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Express and Star. (2012). Birmingham Airport in 65m plan to allow expansion. Available: http://www.expressandstar.com/news/2012/03/19/birmingham-airport-in-65m-plan-to-allow-expansion/. [Last accessed 21st November 2012].

Chapman Freeborn. (2012). IATA predicts 3.6 billion global airline passengers by 2016. Available: http://www.chapman-freeborn.com/en/blog/iata-predicts-3-6-billion-global-airline-passengers-by-2016/#.UOjAX4mLLSE. Last accessed 06/01/2013.

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Frontier Economics. (2011). Connecting for growth: the role of Britains hub airport in economic recovery. Available: http://www.frontier-economics.com/_library/pdfs/Connecting%20for%20growth.pdf. [Last accessed 22nd November 2012].

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Kent County Council. (2012). Bold Steps For Aviation. Available: https://shareweb.kent.gov.uk/Documents/News/Bold%20Steps%20for%20Aviation%20May%202012.pdf. Last accessed 05/01/2013.

Maidment N. (2012). MORE REUTERS RESULTS FOR: Gatwick would need second runway to cope with an expected 30 percent rise in passenger numbers Available: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/17/uk-britain-gatwick-idUSLNE89G01E20121017. [Last accessed 4th Dec 2012].

Murphy, P. (2012). 46 per cent of MPs back third runway at Heathrow. Available: http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/46-per-cent-of-mps-back-third-runway-at-heathrow-8306615.html. Last accessed 05/01/2013.

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