Constraining Fire Emissions UsingTropospheric CO Measurements

Prasad KasibhatlaDuke University

CollaboratorsAvelino Arellano, Louis Giglio, Jim Randerson,

Guido van der Werf, Jim Collatz

QUEST Fire MeetingOctober 28, 2005

Why Are We Interested in CO?

50

650

700

440110

30

800

Fossil Fuel Biomass Burning

Oceans Biogenic Oxidation

NMHC Oxid Industrial NMHC Oxid Biomass Burning

Methane Oxidation

BB

FF/BF

CH4

BIOG OC

NMHC• CO can provide insights into ‘intensities’ of certain anthropogenic activities

COCH4

RH

OH

OH

etcCOCH4

RH

OH

OH

etcCOCH4

RH

OH

OH

etcCOCH4

RH

OH

COCH4

RH

OH

COCH4

RHCOCH4

RHCOCH4

RH

OH

OH

etc

OH

etc

Remote Sensing Products

Biomass Burning C Emissions

Tropospheric CO

GFED

Bottom-upBottom-up InventoriesInventories

(a priori)(a priori)

Bottom-upBottom-up InventoriesInventories

(a priori)(a priori)

Global ChemicalGlobal ChemicalTransport ModelTransport Model

(forward)(forward)

Global ChemicalGlobal ChemicalTransport ModelTransport Model

(forward)(forward)

3D Model CO 3D Model CO ConcentrationsConcentrations

(response)(response)

3D Model CO 3D Model CO ConcentrationsConcentrations

(response)(response)

Top-down Top-down InventoriesInventories(a posteriori)(a posteriori)

Top-down Top-down InventoriesInventories(a posteriori)(a posteriori)

Statistical ModelStatistical Model(inverse)(inverse)

Statistical ModelStatistical Model(inverse)(inverse)

Atmospheric CO Atmospheric CO ObservationsObservations

(in-situ, remote-(in-situ, remote-sensed)sensed)

Atmospheric CO Atmospheric CO ObservationsObservations

(in-situ, remote-(in-situ, remote-sensed)sensed)

ErrorsErrorsErrorsErrors

Field Measurements/ Satellite Observations

Assimilated Meteorological Fields

Forward and Inverse Modeling

Inverse Emission Estimates

Tg CO/yr

black = priorred = post.

circles = obsblue = priorred = post

Comparison With CMDL Surface Measurements

CO and CO2 Anomalies Inverse Analysis Using CMDL Surface Measurements

Bayesian inversion: Prior scalar = 1 with 2-sigma error = 1.0

CO and CO2 Anomalies Inverse Analysis Using CMDL Surface Measurements

black = obs; blue = prior; red = posterior

CO Anomalies From MOPITT

Summary and Future Needs

• Satellite trop chem measurements have the potential for increasing our understanding of magnitude and variability of trace gas emissions

• For realizing this full potential

• Need to characterize biases (e.g. model transport, model chemistry, model a priori source patterns, measurements)

• Need to develop methods for using different types of measurements (e.g. surface, aircraft and satellite; multiple species) and of different species simultaneously