constitutional reform in hong kong round three hong kong transition project june 2013
TRANSCRIPT
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Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong
ROUND THREE
HONG KONG TRANSITION PROJECT June 2013
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Survey Objectives:
• Establish baselines before next round on:– Views on current governance system– Public opinion on reform options– Views by party, identity, interests (occupation,
ownership) and demographics (age, sex, education, income, etc)
Part of Hong Kong Transition Project’s long term study of public policy and political development since 1982
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January 2013
• 920 permanent residents randomly contacted by telephone – +/- 3 points range of error at 95% confidence interval
• Research conducted by Hong Kong Transition Project, supported by a grant from the Community Development Initiative
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3 FUNDAMENTAL SHIFTS→ from circumstances of Rounds 1 (2005) & 2 (2010)
• Inter-generational Transfer Shift (1)– From Old > Young: Education/Healthcare– To Young> Old: Retirement/Geriatric care
• Identity Shift (2) as part of Generational Shift (3)– From Hong Kong person > Chinese/Chinese Hong
Konger– From Chinese = Patriotic Communist > Chinese =
National/Cultural Patriot• 1st Gen since 1841 to grow up in Hong Kong, China
—with no effective memory of foreign rule
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Generational Shift →
• 1 July 2013 marks 16 years from 1997 handover• 1 July 2014 (Occupy Central deadline for “genuine
democracy” reforms) = 17 years• 2017 Chief Executive election = 20 years• Few under age 30 remember pre-1997
circumstances as lived experience. It is “history” to them.
• Lived experience of this generation is: Bearing burden of the past, not enjoying its legacy nor believing in steady progress because they have seen it happen
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SOURCE: Carine Lai, Louisa Mitchell, Michael DeGolyer, The Changing Faces of Hong Kong: “A Graphical Summary
of Women’s Status, 1991-2011” (Feb 2013) The
Women’s Foundation/Civic Exchange
http://www.civic-exchange.org/wp/201302gender_en/
p.17
By 2031, % of population over 60 will rise from 13%
in 2011 to 26%+
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Low birthrate, high aging rate crisis
• Shifting burden of care is burdening families in new ways• New forms of stress/unequal forms of stress on families,
caregivers and rising generation. No parents = no stress. No children = not enough help. High stress on fewer children.
• “Family friendly” policy does not recognize “family” is no longer parents with children; it is children with parents
• Intervening variable on satisfaction and fairness of policy making questions
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Average Adjusted income for Ages 20-29, Census and By-census (1991, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011)
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Approximately what percentage of your personal income do you contribute to
your parents?
BY Generation
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Personal income to parents by Monthly Family Income
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Effect of SHIFTS on IDENTITY
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First Post-1997/Post-1841 Generation
< 30 year olds were <13 in 1997. Too young to understand colonial Hong Kong.First time over 60s and under 30s equal in a survey
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National Education Effect?“How would you describe yourself” by
Occupation
No student chose
“Chinese” ID
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Changes in identity
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Birthplace
Hong Kong for Hong Kong born, but means something different now
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ID by Generation
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Which of these do you consider the most important to you personally to
see protected and promoted?
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Most important to promote & protect BY Generation
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How does the celebration of 1st October National Day make you feel?
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National Day feelings BY ID
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Effect of SHIFTS on Political ID
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Which parties protect/represent best by Age
60:40 pro-democracy/pro-establishment split among voters NOW is not sustained among teenagers
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For the Establishment
• Demographics are running against the establishment parties
• Stalling reform does not improve their position
• Youth are stressed and highly volatile• Demographics and economics are raising that
stress and volatility UNLESS action is taken to address its sources
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Satisfaction with performance of CY Leung by Generational group
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How much do you believe CY Leung has:
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How much do you believe Leung has: Protected HK’s interest in national matters BY Generation
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How much do you believe Leung: Will implement a fair system of nomination and direct election for CE in 2017 BY Generation
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How much do you trust Chief Executive Leung to handle relations with:
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How much do you trust CE Leung to handle relations with: People like yourself BY
Generation
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How much do you trust CE Leung to handle relations with: People like yourself BY
Parental support paid
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Are you currently worried or not about these specific aspects affecting you, your family or
Hong Kong? (Jan 2013)
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In your view, what is the most urgent issue that should be addressed by the Chief Executive?
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Effect of Shifts on Reform
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System Reform . . .
• Is more than economics and elections• Political-Economic reform must achieve: – Effective shareholder input, – More widely owned decisions, – Efficient implementation of decisions, – followed by scientific evaluation and
independent monitoring, – subject to review and public feedback
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Reform Principles & Options
• For more effective input• Legitimating outcomes• Effectuating implementation• Monitoring governance
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Support/oppose directly electing the Chief Executive (Trend chart)
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Support/Oppose direct election of all Legco seats (10 Year Trend)
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Summary Table of Recoded support or opposition on reform options
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Would you support/oppose: Keep the CE Election Committee at 1200 members as
present and make it the nominating committee for candidates for direct elections in 2017?
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Would you support/oppose: Reform FCs by eliminating corporate voting and equalizing, as much as possible, the number of voters in
each constituency?
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Would you support/oppose: Abolish FCs for Legco but keep them for the CE Nominating
Committee
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Would you support/oppose the following: Abolish FCs completely in all forms?
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Do you currently support or oppose: Abolishing all FCs, both traditional and new DC FC seats
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Do you currently support or oppose: Abolishing only the traditional small circle 30 FC seats
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Do you currently support/oppose: Replacing the 30 small circle FC seats with 30 more seats elected by everyone like the 5 new DC seats
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Do you currently support/oppose: Abolishing the split voting system in Legco which requires majority
votes in both the FCs and GCs for a bill or amendment to pass
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If all FC seats are directly geographic elected, would you support or oppose: A minimum
required percentage of votes to get a seat, of say, 10%, like in Germany?
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Would you support/oppose: CE candidates be allowed to be members of a party?
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Which party represents best by Support/oppose CE candidates allowed to be
members of a party NO DIFFERENCE BY PARTY
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Which party represents best by How much do you believe CY Leung: Will implement a fair system of
nomination and direct election for CE in 2017
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Which party represents best by Support direct election of Chief Executive
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Which party represents best by Support direct election all Legco members
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Which party represents best by Abolish FCs completely in all forms
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Which party represents best by Abolish FCs for Legco, but keep for CE election
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Which party represents best by Keep present 1200 member CE Election Committee as Nominating
Committee, no change
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Which party represents best by Do you think gov makes policies fairly
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Fairness in policy making BY Generation
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Fairness of policy making BY Work Sector
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Research conducted by the Hong Kong Transition Project
Details of methods and earlier reports available at: http://www.hktp.org
Hong Kong Transition Project Research since 1988 has been funded by RGC grants, grants from National Democratic Institute for
International Affairs, Civic Exchange, The Women’s Foundation and many other local and international NGOs, and Community
Development Foundation
The Hong Kong Transition Project is a non-partisan, multi-disciplinary, multi-national academic research
project committed to good governance and the highest standard public policy research