considerations for windfarm repowering new zealand wind … · 2017. 4. 23. · dnvgl-se-0263...
TRANSCRIPT
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DNV GL © 2017 12 April 2017 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENERDNV GL © 2017
Ungraded
12 April 2017
Dr. Avishek Kumar
ENERGY
Age considers; youth ventures:
1
Considerations for windfarm repowering
New Zealand Wind Energy Conference 2017
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DNV GL © 2017 12 April 201712 March 2017
Ungraded
2
NEW ZEALAND
SITUATION
LIFECYCLE
STRATEGY
UNIQUE
OPPORTUNITES
INTERNATIONAL
EXPERIENCE
! RISKS
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DNV GL © 2017 12 April 2017
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Cumulative Capacity (MW) Cumulative Units
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
The NZ opportunity
3
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DNV GL © 2017 12 April 2017
Post Construction Options
4
RIP
DECOMMISSION
LIFE OPTIMISATION
REPOWER
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DNV GL © 2017 12 April 2017
The Lifecycle Strategy Process
5
SITE SUITABILITY
ANALYSIS
LIFE ASSESSMENT
LIFECYCLE OPTIMIZATION
REMAININGLIFE
SUITABLE?
DECOMMISSION
MODIFY
NO
YES
YES
NO
POST CONSTRUCTIONPRE CONSTRUCTION
REPOWER
REPOWER?
NO
YES
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DNV GL © 2017 12 April 2017
The Lifecycle Strategy Process
6
Site Conditions
Operational Data
Turbine Design
Inspection Data
Basic
• Generic Turbine
• Met Data
Advanced
• SCADA
• Specific Turbine Model
• Probabilistic Analysis
SITE SUITABILITY
ANALYSIS
LIFE ASSESSMENT
LIFECYCLE OPTIMIZATION
REMAININGLIFE
SUITABLE?
DECOMMISSION
MODIFY
NO
YES
YES
NO
POST CONSTRUCTIONPRE CONSTRUCTION
REPOWER
REPOWER?
NO
YES
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DNV GL © 2017 12 April 2017
The Lifecycle Strategy Process
7
Economic Parameters
O&M Inputs
• Maintenance Strategy
• SCADA Data
• Probabilistic Analysis
• Turbine Specifications
Retrofits
Controller Upgrades
Windfarm Control
Targeted Inspections
Operational Modifications
Site specific upgrades
SITE SUITABILITY
ANALYSIS
LIFE ASSESSMENT
LIFECYCLE OPTIMIZATION
REMAININGLIFE
SUITABLE?
DECOMMISSION
MODIFY
NO
YES
YES
NO
POST CONSTRUCTIONPRE CONSTRUCTION
REPOWER
REPOWER?
NO
YES
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DNV GL © 2017 12 April 2017
Turbine life gauge
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FULL REPOWER
Complete decommission and
replacement
Includes foundation work
LIFE EXTENSION
Certification exercise
Keep running turbines
beyond life
PARTIAL REPOWER
OR RETROFIT
Replace specific parts
Increase gross power capture
Increase reliability
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DNV GL © 2017 12 April 2017
Opportunities
9
REPOWERED PROJECTS
Leverage productive sites
Improved site/operational knowledge
Re-use existing services
Second hand turbine market
NEW PROJECTS
Increased production per hectare
Advanced grid support features
Increased reliability
Reduced supply chain risk
Reduced noise
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DNV GL © 2017 12 April 2017
Opportunities
10
REPOWERED PROJECTS
Leverage productive sites
Improved site/operational knowledge
Re-use existing services
Second hand turbine market
NEW PROJECTS
Increased production per hectare
Advanced grid support features
Increased reliability
Reduced supply chain risk
Reduced noise
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DNV GL © 2017 12 April 2017
Opportunities
11
REPOWERED PROJECTS
Leverage productive sites
Improved site/operational knowledge
Re-use existing services
Second hand turbine market
NEW PROJECTS
Increased production per hectare
Advanced grid support features
Increased reliability
Reduced supply chain risk
Reduced noise
-
DNV GL © 2017 12 April 2017
Opportunities
12
REPOWERED PROJECTS
Leverage productive sites
Improved site/operational knowledge
Re-use existing services
Second hand turbine market
NEW PROJECTS
Increased production per hectare
Advanced grid support features
Increased reliability
Reduced supply chain risk
Reduced noise
-
DNV GL © 2017 12 April 2017
Opportunities
13
REPOWERED PROJECTS
Leverage productive sites
Improved site/operational knowledge
Re-use existing services
Second hand turbine market
NEW PROJECTS
Increased production per hectare
Advanced grid support features
Increased reliability
Reduced supply chain risk
Reduced noise
Nition1 at English Wikipedia
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DNV GL © 2017 12 April 2017
Opportunities
14
REPOWERED PROJECTS
Leverage productive sites
Improved site/operational knowledge
Re-use existing services
Second hand turbine market
NEW PROJECTS
Increased production per hectare
Advanced grid support features
Increased reliability
Reduced supply chain risk
Reduced noise
Nition1 at English Wikipedia
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DNV GL © 2017 12 April 2017
International Experience
15
DENMARK
Premium pricing
75 MW in 2014
1.3 GW goal (2012-2020)
USA
Possible PTC
75 MW in 2014
GERMANY
Incentives ended 2014
484 MW in 2015
(>1 GW in 2014)
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DNV GL © 2017 12 April 2017
International Experience
16
FOR
Policy incentives
Poor greenfield sites
Fast technology changes
Strong PPA
Rising O&M costs
High cost savings
Public support
AGAINST
Business as usual
Productive greenfield sites
Slow technology changes
Price taker
Stable O&M costs
Poor cost savings
Public opposition
DENMARK
Premium pricing
75 MW in 2014
1.3 GW goal (2012-2020)
USA
Possible PTC
75 MW in 2014
GERMANY
Incentives ended 2014
484 MW in 2015
(>1 GW in 2014)
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DNV GL © 2017 12 April 2017
Risks – Electrical Balance of Plant
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Collection System
Collector Substation
Transmission/
Tie in Line
Interconnection Facilities
CAPABILITY/
REMAINING LIFE
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DNV GL © 2017 12 April 2017
Risks
18
AVIAN
ISSUES
CAA
APPROVALS
COMMUNITY
IMPACTSOTHER
REGULATIONS
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DNV GL © 2017 12 April 2017
And for the future, optimise from Day 1
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RECORD KEEPING
Escrow design information
Create document preservation plan
ADVANCED MODELLING AND DESIGN
Site specific designs
Design Foundations and BOP for 30+
years
ADVANCED MONITORING
Add structural inspections to O&M
plans
Digital Twins
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DNV GL © 2017 12 April 201712 March 2017
Ungraded
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NZ’s first generation
of turbines reaching
end of design life
Leverage repowering
opportunities
! Plan early to avoid/overcome risk
Modern turbines
benefit from lifetime
optimisation
Full repowering
favours replacing
older technology
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DNV GL © 2017 12 April 2017
SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
www.dnvgl.com
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DNV GL © 2017 12 April 2017
References
▪ DNV GL White Paper on Technical and Contractual Considerations in Partial
Repowering of Wind Turbines. (2016)
▪ DNVGL-SE-0263 Certification of lifetime extension of wind turbines
▪ DNVGL-SE-0262 Lifetime extension of wind turbines
▪ Lantz et. al, Wind Power Project Repowering: Financial Feasibility, Decision
Drivers, and Supply Chain Effects. TP-6A20-60535. NREL. (2013)
▪ Global Wind Report: Annual Market Update. GWEC. (2016)
▪ Global Wind Report: Annual Market Update. GWEC. (2015)
▪ Global Wind Report: Annual Market Update. GWEC. (2014)
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