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DWR Climate Change Program Consideration of Climate Change
in Water Resources Planning Elissa Lynn
DWR
California Water Commission January 20, 2016
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What does it mean for California?
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Earth’s Climate System
Ice Ocean Land
Sub-surface Earth
Atmosphere
Heat from Surface
Some sunlight reflected into space
Solar radiation
Greenhouse Gases
Sun
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Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
“Anthropogenic Climate Change”
Land
Sub-surface
Atmosphere Heat from Surface
Extract and burn fossil fuels add CO2 to atmosphere
More greenhouse gases, more radiation absorbed Additional
heat retained, higher surface temperatures
Ocean Ice
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What do models tell us?
Meehl et al. (2004)
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Meehl et al. (2004)
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California Climate Science and Data
for Water Resources Management
http://www.water.ca.gov/climatechange/docs/CA_Climate_Science_and_Data_Final_Release_June_2015.pdf
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Projected Climate Change Temperatures
• +3 to 6.5 oF by end of century
• Summer warming will be more significant than winter warming
• Inland areas will experience more warming than coastal areas
• Evening and nighttime warming more significant than daytime warming
Brochure, PAGE 13
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Observed Change
More rain, less snow Brochure, PAGE 3
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Projected Climate Change Snow Pack and Water Supply
Brochure, PAGE 5
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Observed Change Runoff Timing Earlier
Monthly Average / Sacramento River System
Brochure, PAGE 3
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Projected Climate Change
Brochure, PAGE 8
Sea Level Rise
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CA Regional Vulnerabilities
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Clim ate Adapta t ion Efforts by society or ecosystems to prepare for or adjust to changes in the climate
Protective – guarding against negative impacts of climate change Opportunistic – taking advantage of any beneficial effects of climate change
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Clim ate Mit iga t ion Efforts to reduce or prevent emission of greenhouse gases
Using new technologies and renewable energies, making older equipment more energy efficient, or changing management practices or consumer behavior
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Adaptation Strategies Safeguarding California
Implementation Plan 2016 Water Sector
Groundwater
Storage
Ecosystems Flood
Land Use Water Science Tools
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DWR’s Climate Action Plan (CAP)
Comprehensive Response to Climate Change
http://www.water.ca.gov/climatechange/CAP.cfm
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CAP Phase I Greenhouse Gas Reduction Plan
• 50% Emissions Reduction from 1990 levels by 2020
• 80% Emissions Reduction from 1990 levels by 2050
• Won National Climate
Leadership Award, 2015
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CAP Phase II Framework for Consistent Climate Change Handling
Goal: Improve standardization and quality in climate change analyses across all DWR programs
Climate Change Technical Advisory Group: Provided perspectives and guidance on climate change and “GCM” assessment
NEXT STEPS: Department-wide guidance for Climate Change
using “recommended” models/scenarios Provide “best science” to local water managers Engage with other State agencies to align with
our methodology (CEC – 4th Assessment)
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CAP Phase III DWR Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Plan
Goal: Assess risk levels & identify most vulnerable activities and develop adaptation goals & create a plan of action
People
Facilities
Programs
Potential Climate Change Impacts
Identify Vulnerabilities