Quarterly Industrial Production %Change Year/YearUS + China + Eurozone + India + Japan + UK

61.7% of Global GDPQ408 2016:2

8 8

7 7

6 6

5 5

4 4

3 3

2 22011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Consensus Forecast

Quarterly Industrial Production %Change Year/YearUS, China + Eurozone + India + Japan + UK Consensus Forecast

61.7% of Global GDPQ504 2016:2

9 9

8 8

7 7

6 6

5 5

4 4

3 3

2 2

1 12011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

USex US

Global Industrial Production - %Change Year/YearPeriods of RISING Global IP Growth Shaded

Shaded Areas Represent Period of Accelerating Global Industrial ProductionM765 NOV 2014

15 15

10 10

5 5

0 0

-5 -5

-10 -10

-15 -1586 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

2.7

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond YieldPeriods of RISING Global IP Growth Shaded

Shaded Areas Represent Period of Accelerating Global Industrial ProductionM2515 JAN 2015

10 10

9 9

8 8

7 7

6 6

5 5

4 4

3 3

2 2

1 186 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

1.82

Cumulative Total Return in StocksDeflated by CPI

Shaded Areas Represent Period of Accelerating Global Industrial ProductionM57 NOV 2014

900 900

800 800

700 700

600 600

500 500

400 400

300 300

200 200

150 150

100 10086 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

S&P 500TSX Composite

TSX Composite P/E - Trailing Operating EarningsShaded Areas Identify Periods of Rising Global IP Momentum

Shaded Areas Represent Period of Accelerating Global Industrial ProductionM811 DEC 2014

40 40

35 35

30 30

25 25

20 20

15 15

10 10

5 586 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Median: 17.9

Average: 19.3

16.3

DXY: Trade Weighted Value of the U.S. Dollar

Shaded Areas Represent Period of Accelerating Global Industrial ProductionM556 JAN 2015

120 120

110 110

100 100

90 90

80 80

70 7086 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Industrial Commodity Prices

Shaded Areas Represent Period of Accelerating Global Industrial ProductionM560 DEC 2014

325 325

300 300

275 275

250 250

225 225

200 200

175 175

150 150

125 125

100 100

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Journal of Commerce (w/ Energy)CRB Spot Industrials (w/o Energy)

US Personal Savings Rate ( ,left)And %Change Qtr/Qtr Real Consumer Spending

M66 NOV 2014

5.4

5.2

5.0

4.8

4.6

4.4

4.2

4.0

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J

2013 2014

4.4

3.2

U.S. Retail Sales ex Gasoline Stations$Billions Monthly with Quarterly Averages

M2137 DEC 2014

405 405

400 400

395 395

390 390

385 385

380 380

375 375

370 370J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A

2013 2014 2015

Monthly+5.3% Yr/Yr

Inventory-to-Sales RatioU.S. Business Sector - Manufacturing + Wholesale + Retail

M2496 NOV 2014

1.50 1.50

1.45 1.45

1.40 1.40

1.35 1.35

1.30 1.30

1.25 1.25

1.20 1.2004 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Median: 1.28

Average: 1.29

1.31

U.S. Real Inventory Investment ( )And ISM PMI ( ,right)

M719 DEC 2014

100

80

60

40

20

0

60

58

56

54

52

50

482012 2013 2014 2015

Trade Weighted U.S. DollarDXY Major Currencies

Finex USDXD807 23 JAN 15

96 96

94 94

92 92

90 90

88 88

86 86

84 84

82 82

80 80

78 78Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2014 2015

94.8

S&P 500 Operating EarningsThomson Financial Bottom-Up Consensus

W190 23 JAN 15

150 150

145 145

140 140

135 135

130 130

125 125

120 120Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2014 2015

2015201612 Month Fwd

123.47

138.79

124.35

Three Month %Revision to S&P 500 Earnings EstimatesWeighted Average of Current and Next Year

Shaded Areas Represent U.S. Economic RecessionsW84 23 JAN 15

6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0

-2 -2

-4 -4

-6 -6

-8 -8

-10 -1094 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

-5.7

NonDefense Capital Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft$Billion Monthly Rate with Quarterly Average

M250 NOV 2014

74 74

72 72

70 70

68 68

66 66

64 64

62 62

60 602012 2013 2014 2015

+1.4% Yr/Yr

U.S. 10 Year TBond Yield less Real Return Bond YieldBreakeven Inflation Rate

D369 23 JAN 15

3.0 3.0

2.5 2.5

2.0 2.0

1.5 1.5

1.0 1.0

0.5 0.5

0.0 0.004 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Median: 2.31

Average: 2.22

1.60

US 5 Year Forward Breakeven Inflation ExpectationSource: Federal Reserve

D863 20 JAN 15

4.0 4.0

3.5 3.5

3.0 3.0

2.5 2.5

2.0 2.0

1.5 1.52008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1.78

U.S. 10 Year TBond Yield less Real Return Bond YieldBreakeven Inflation Rate

Breadth measured as cumulative advance/decline of 23 industrial commoditiesD887 23 JAN 15

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

1600

1550

1500

1450

1400

1350

1300

1250

1200

11502010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Commodity Price Breadth

1.60

Commodity PricesWith Fed Tightening Shaded

Shaded Areas Represent Periods of Fed TighteningD211 22 JAN 15

350 350

300 300

250 250

200 200

150 150

125 125

100 100

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

CRB Spot Industrials (w/o energy)Journal of Commerce (w/ energy)

JofC Industrial Commodity Prices ( )And the Monthly Average Fed Funds Rate ( )

M2113 DEC 1985

60

50

40

30

25

20

20

15

10

5

056 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84

U.S. Purchasing ManagersPrice Index

Shaded Areas Represent Periods of Fed TighteningM148 DEC 2014

100 100

90 90

80 80

70 70

60 60

50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 101980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

38.5

TD Yearend Targets

2014 2015 2016

S&P 500 Earnings * 119 123 136

7.8% 3.4% 10.6%

P/E 17.3 18.2 17.6

3.3% 5.3% -3.1%

Price 2059 2240 2400

11.4% 8.8% 7.1%

TSX Earnings * 900 900 1000

12.5% 0.0% 11.1%

P/E 16.3 17.8 17.5

-4.5% 9.3% -1.6%

Price 14632 16000 17500

7.4% 9.3% 9.4%

* TD operating earnings forecast for the calendar year.