confounding and the language of experimentation
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Confounding and the Language of Experimentation. Part III – Statistical Significance. This video is designed to accompany pages 13-18 in Making Sense of Uncertainty Activities for Teaching Statistical Reasoning Van- Griner Publishing Company. Confounding Aside. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Confounding and the Language of ExperimentationPart III – Statistical Significance
This video is designed to accompany
pages 13-18in
Making Sense of UncertaintyActivities for Teaching Statistical
ReasoningVan-Griner Publishing Company
Confounding Aside
Even if confounding is not an issue …
There’s a larger challenge to the inferences that are being made.
Let’s look at an example.
Flibanserin
Randomized, Placebo Trial
The Flibanserin findings are based on the study of 1,378 premenopausal women who had been in a monogamous relationship for 10 years on average. The women were randomly assigned to take 100 mg of Flibanserin or a placebo daily and to record daily whether they had sex and whether it was satisfying. The women were screened for depression and other medical conditions, and all had a diagnosis of HSDD.
From : http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1939884,00.html#ixzz1rvoYBIax
Making a Credible Inference
Women in the Flibanserin group self-reported 2.8 sexually satisfying events in the four-week baseline period; in the final four weeks of the 24-week study period, those women reported 4.5 sexually satisfying events, a more than 50% increase. Women in the placebo group reported an increase from 2.7 events to 3.7.
From: http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1939884,00.html#ixzz1rvoYBIax
Was the Flibanserin treatment effective?
Statistical Significance
DefinitionStatistical Significance - A difference between treatments that is sufficiently large that it is unlikely to have occurred by chance alone.
This is a formal, probabilistic statement made possible by some of the wonderful mathematical science on which statistical science resides.
In this module we won’t address the mathematics, just the idea.
One-Sentence Reflection
Credible inferences from experimental data have to ultimately be held to a formal standard of statistical significance.