conflict termination trends, challenges (new approaches?) national defense college of the...
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Conflict Termination
Trends, challenges (new approaches?)
National Defense College of the Philippines, 14 April 2011
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Overview
• 1. Conciliation Resources • 2. Conflict termination• 3. Trends• 4. Challenge• (5. Approaches)
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Conciliation Resources
• Background• Approach• Areas of engagement:
1. Supporting peace processes (geographic areas)
2. Documenting best practice (Accord)3. Policy
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Protracted armed conflicts
• Some 20 armed conflicts/tensions have lasted more than 20 years.
• Limited media coverage.• Most cases take place in “democratic”
contexts.• Complexity increases with time: new
actors, new factors, increased grievances, culture of violence.
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Protracted peace processes
• Six negotiations started more than 20 years ago: NPA (23), Colombia (25), Cyprus (32), Spain (38), Nagaland (49), Kashmir (50).
• Oldest terminated conflicts: MNLF (21), Northern Ireland (25), Sri Lanka (26), Burundi (29).
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Conflict “termination”
• Peace agreement: 11 (>85 %)• Victory/defeat: 2 (Peru, Sri Lanka)• Comprehensive negotiations also take
place with militarily ‘weak’ rebel groups: URNG (Guatemala), GAM (Aceh).
• One of the strongest rebel movements in the world (LTTE) was defeated (2009).
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From bullets to ballots
• 75% of rebels turned political parties access government:South Africa (1994), Mindanao (1996), East Timor (2002), Aceh (2006), Northern Ireland (2007) Guatemala (2007), Nepal (2008), El Salvador (2009).
• Access to power most often happened shortly after the final peace agreement.
• It took longer time in Northern Ireland (9 years), Guatemala (11 years), and El Salvador (18 years).
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Trends: the ‘good’ news
• Less armed conflicts• Less battle deaths• COIN unsuccessful (Rand)• More negotiated terminations• Negotiations in most current conflicts• Better peace-support capacities• Less acceptance of violence: – less support to rebels (LTTE, ETA, FARC)– more peace support.
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Trends: the bad news
• Conflicts & peace process become protracted• Post-agreement violence• Conflict recurrence• New forms of violence• Resilience of power-holders• September 11: more asymmetry• Time now favors status quo (Palestine, WS)• Poor quality of peace agreements• Failed expectations
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Challenge
From quantity to quality of peace processes
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1. Re-assess assumptions
• Peace will be brokered by warriors• ‘Strong’ rebels can’t be defeated• ‘Weak’ rebels don’t have political power• Peace is made around one table• A peace agreement will bring peace • Spoilers will always put obstacles• People are doomed to be violent
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2. Welcome innovations
• “6 paths to peace” (1993)• Peace zones• Civilian peacekeeping (local and intnal.)• Early peace dividends: BDA• Capacity building to balance asymmetry:
BMIL• Sophisticated peace-support architecture:
ICG, IMT• All-women contingent (CPC)• Military - peace
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3. New concepts and methods
• Violence continuum: public-private• Peace process - peace negotiations• Manage expectations: increase time-frame• Victims: from objects to subjects• Explore stakeholder ‘cocktails’.
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4. Accept complexity
• Multiple situations overlap (conflict/post-)• Same factors produce different outcome at
different moments• Intuition over analysis• Identify and address the multiple layers of
conflict. • Challenges are both global and context-
specific: mutual learning
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5. Broaden perspectives
• From stopping violence to challenging violence:– Unmask the interests that justify violence
(economic and political dimensions).– Transform the structures that sustain
violence (institutional dimension).– De-construct the myths that foster violence
(cultural dimension).
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6. Women’s contributions
• From linear processes to circular metaphors• Challenging binary considerations:
– Good and bad – shared responsibilities– War and peace - violence continuum – Men and women – gendered roles
• From amnesty to accountability.• From elite-driven negotiations to inclusive
peace processes.• From W. liberal values and neo-colonial
attitudes to acknowledgement of local and indigenous capacities.
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