Conflict, Rationality, and Hope

Psychology of Personal Decision-Making

Agenda

More TED! – Dan Gilbert▪ “Synthesizing Happiness”

Cognitive Conflict▪ Group Work

Rationality Hope

Cognitive Conflict

Cognitive Conflict = Importance x Uncertainty“Stress”

Bored/Inaction on a decision?

Create importance/urgency ▪ Think about risks involved▪ Imagine what happens if worst occurs?▪ “Lose” time

Create perceived uncertainty▪ …by getting creative about alternatives

Hyper-aware/paralyzed on a decision?

“Turn down heat” on importance/urgency ▪ Distancing▪ Put the problem in a friend’s shoes▪ Easier to see irrationality in others

▪ Schedule time for coffee/reflection▪ Time = better decisions

Combat complexity/uncertainty▪ …with cool tools you haven’t learned yet =(▪ External Memory▪ Heuristics▪ Decomposition

Focus on Process instead of outcomes

Group Activity

What types of decision problems in other’s lives…▪ Result in boredom and consequential inaction?▪ What’s for dinner?▪ Taxes?

“Routine” not routine Wasing dishes, cleaning Planning for the future (money) Stationary

▪ What to do about your examples?

▪ Result in panic/paralysis and consequential inaction?▪ Where to travel?▪ Marriage

Rationality

“Representational” Beliefs

▪ RATIONALLY Reduce Uncertainty▪ Factual evidence (OBSERVABLE)▪Represent reality in an unbiased way▪Photos, recordings, dates of happenings ▪X -> Y

▪ Accepted or Rejected based on observability

“Self-Enhancing” Beliefs

IRRATIONALLY reduce uncertainty Accepted or Rejected based on▪ Self Concept▪ Lifestyle▪ Feelings

Banjara Ford Pinto Example

Chief Banjara Made a Poor Decision

At risk of reducing uncertainty by:▪ Shifting responsibility▪ The researchers made me do it!

▪ Looking for biased info▪ Subscribes to Pinto Aficionado Magazine▪ Join the Pinto Club

▪ Weakening other alternatives▪ Decry Subaru’s as out of touch with tribal values

▪ Creating excess reasons▪ “Pintos are close to beans, fruit of the earth, also my tribe”▪ “I like to drive knowing I could die at any instant, I am truly

in god’s hands and feel closer to her”

▪ Seek social support▪ Find other tribe leaders with Pintos

Are you thinking Rationally?

▪ TEST #1: How do you respond to challenging information?▪ “No sense in talking about that any more”▪ “There’s no alternative”▪ “I find this terribly upsetting”▪ “We’ve been through that and there’s no use spending more time on it”

Are you thinking Rationally?

▪ TEST #2: Are you willing to put your beliefs to the test?

OBSERVABLE??

Falsifiable??

Are you thinking Rationally?

▪ TEST #3: How do you respond to:

“If an independent analysis were completed for my alternatives, would I be willing to commit to and actually follow the recommended course of action?”

If “no”, then hooray, you’ve got Hidden Values to explore!

Escalating Commitment

▪Unwillingness to admit initial decisions were bad▪ Sunk costs▪Affect our feelings of competence

Resolving Escalating Commitment

▪ Set commitment limits in advance▪ Inform others of maximum commitment level▪Discuss with others who have no involvement in alternative▪ Analyze from a competitors shoes▪ “The card player up $2000” ▪ Does casino want you to leave?

Hope? Er… “Hope!”

▪ Rational decisions require:▪Cognitive conflict (gasoline)▪Hope (steering wheel)

Hope Defined here is a little different:

“Belief that rational, unbiased approach to decision-making will result in best outcomes”

Getting “Hope!”

▪+ Problem solving skills▪+ Notes and resources▪+ Knowing how to break problems apart▪+ Developing good relationships▪+ Practice/Experience

The “decision experts”(Shanteau,

1988) :

▪Work with others▪Don’t have to be right on the first try▪Don’t have to be exactly right, even in the end▪Don’t have to think about everything at once▪ Can learn from our mistakes▪ Instead of defending ourselves▪…or making rationalizations