confidence ratings: public officials and independent institutions
TRANSCRIPT
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SPEC Barometer: Performance RatingsPress Release: General Media
Prepared by: Ipsos
Release date: 27th May 2015
Current confidence ratings: Jubilee leadership Other senior government officials Government institutions Independent commissions Non-state actors
Trend analysis: Selected confidence ratings • Top government officials • IEBC
Performance comparison: Jubilee vs. Grand-coalition government in 13 policy areas Total, CORD vs. Jubilee supporters
Trend analysis: total combined positive vs. negative performance ratings
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Contents
Methodology
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Dates of polling 28th March - 7th April 2015
Sample Size 1,964
Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size)
Universe
Data collection methodology
Sampling error
Face-to-Face interviews at the household level
Poll funding Ipsos Limited
Kenyan adults, aged 18 and above living in Urban and Rural areas
+/-2.2% with a 95% confidence level(Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)
Sample Structure Statistics
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RegionSample Frame statistics
(April 2015)*Weighted data
% Population Census as at 2009
Adults (18 years +)%
Central 257 13 2,548,038 13
Coast 173 9 1,711,549 9
Eastern 293 15 2,907,293 15
Nairobi 206 10 2,042,770 10
North Eastern94* 5 929,158 5
Nyanza 257 13 2,547,980 13
Rift Valley484 25 4,795,482 25
Western 200 10 1,980,090 10
TOTAL 1,964 100 19,462,360 100
Quality Control Measures
For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout
Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at their households to confirm the interviews (i.e. back-checking).
After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos Server: an independent team then makes random phone calls to 40% of the respondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the said respondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks).
Mobile Data Collection Platform captures GPS location (latitudes and longitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of the interviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.
Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensure conformity to the sample’s statistical parameters.
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Ipsos employs quality control measures to ensure the highest possible integrity of obtained results/data
Catholic
Catholic Charismatic
Mainstream Protestant (ACK, Methodist, Presbyterian, AIC)
SDA
Evangelical
Other Christian
Muslim
Refused To Answer/None
No religion
Public Sector wages/salary
Private sector wages /salary
Gains from self employment/ Business owner/trader
Agriculture (own/household farm)
Livestock
Given money by others
Pension from previous employment
Other
Don’t Know
Refused To Answer
28%
2%
30%
8%
11%
9%
10%
1%
1%
9%
22%
28%
23%
4%
4%
2%
5%
1%
2%
Demographic Profile
Nairobi
Coast
Nyanza
Rift Valley
North Eastern
Eastern
Central
Western
Female
Male
18 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45+
Urban
Rural
Kenyans
10%
9%
13%
25%
5%
15%
13%
10%
51%
49%
28%
29%
18%
25%
37%
63%
100%
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Region
Gender
Age
Setting
Religion
Nationality
Source of Household Income
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
Demographic Profile
No formal education
Some primary education
Primary education completed
Some secondary education
Secondary education completed
Some middle level college (not university)
Completed mid-level college (Not University)
Some University education
University education completed
Post Graduate (Masters, MBA, PhD)
Less than 10,000
10,001 – 25,000
25,001 – 40,000
40,001 – 55,000
55,001 – 75,000
75,001 – 100,000
100,001 and above
Has No income
RTA/DK
4%
14%
19%
14%
26%
8%
7%
3%
3%
1%
42%
33%
11%
4%
1%
1%
0%
2%
7%
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Level of Education
Monthly Household Income (ALL members of the Household)
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
Demographic Profile
Self-Employed
Unemployed
Employed in the private sector
Peasant/herder (own farm/pasture)
Casual labour
Employed in the public sector
Student
Retired
Other
41%
18%
11%
10%
7%
5%
5%
2%
1%
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Employment Status
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
“How much confidence you have in each of the following institutions/public office holders. Do you have…?” (The Executive)(% for “some confidence” / “only a little confidence” not shown)
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President Uhuru Kenyatta
Deputy President Ruto William
National Government in general
County Commissioners/Provincial Administration Officers
The Attorney-General Githu Muigai
The Cabinet Secretaries
Department of Immigration
48%
35%
19%
19%
18%
14%
10%
11%
22%
15%
18%
19%
25%
24%
A LOT NONE
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
Level of Confidence: The Executive % saying “a lot of confidence” by Jubilee Vs. CORD Supporters
Institution/Public Office HolderJubilee Supporters
(n=871)
CORD Supporters
(n=624)%
Difference
The President (Uhuru Kenyatta) 68% 22% -46%
The Deputy President (William Ruto) 55% 12% -43%
Cabinet Secretaries 18% 9% -9%
The Attorney General : Githu Muigai 25% 13% -12%
County Commissioners/Provincial Administration Officers
21% 19% -2%
Department of Immigration 10% 11% -1%
National Government in general 24% 13% -11%
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Level of Confidence -Trend Analysis: % saying “a lot of confidence”(% for “some confidence” ,“only a little confidence, ”no confidence at all” not shown)
November 2013
February 2014
May 2014 September 2014
*October 2014
November 2014
*December 2014
April 20150%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
53%
41%
32%
43%
71%
51%
67%
48%48%
38%
27%
38%
62%
42%
63%
35%
18%11% 11%
17%
42%
19% 14%
23%
14% 12%19%
48%
22%18%
The President (Uhuru Kenyatta) The Deputy President (William Ruto)
Cabinet Secretaries The Attorney General : Githu Muigai
**N/A
**N/A: Not Asked*CATI surveys
President’s ICC status conference
ICC case against the President withdrawn
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Level of Confidence -Trend Analysis: % saying “a lot of confidence”(% for “some confidence” ,“only a little confidence, ”no confidence at all” not shown)
Institution/Public Office Holder
November 2013
February 2014
May 2014
September 2014
October 2014
November 2014
December 2014 April 2015
The President (Uhuru Kenyatta) 53% 41% 32% 43% 71% 51% 67% 48%
The Deputy President (William Ruto) 48% 38% 27% 38% 62% 42% 63% 35%
Cabinet Secretaries 18% 11% 11% 17% 48% 19% - 14%
The Attorney General : Githu Muigai 23% 14% 12% 19% 42% 22% - 18%
County Commissioners/Provincial Administration Officers
- - - 14% - 19% - 19%
Department of Immigration 16% 7% 8% 10% - 12% - 10%
National Government in general - - - 27% - 26% - 19%
“How much confidence do you have in each of the following…?” County Governments(% for “some confidence", "only a little confidence” not shown)
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County Governments (in general)
Governors
Your County Assembly Representative (MCA)
Senators
22%
21%
20%
19%
14%
20%
22%
25%
A LOT NONE
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
“How much confidence do you have in each of the following…?”Security Services & the Judiciary(% for “some confidence” ,“only a little confidence” not shown)
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The Military/Kenya Defense Forces
Chief Justice Willy Mutunga
The Supreme Court
Judges of the Kenyan Courts
The Police
Inspector General of Police (Joseph Boinnet)
The Judiciary
Intelligence Service/National Intelligence Services
Other Courts
32%
22%
21%
16%
15%
15%
15%
15%
12%
9%
17%
14%
19%
31%
14%
20%
16%
15%
A LOT NONE
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
“How much confidence you have in each of the following …?” Current and Former Public Officials(% for “some confidence”, “only a little confidence” not shown)
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First Lady Margaret Kenyatta
CORD Principal Raila Odinga
Your Member of Parliament
Political Parties
CORD Principal Kalonzo Musyoka
CORD Principal Senator Moses Wetangula
Opposition
Majority Leader Aden Duale
Speaker of the National Assembly Justin Muturi
55%
29%
22%
19%
18%
18%
18%
15%
14%
8%
30%
20%
14%
32%
31%
23%
27%
23%
A LOT NONE
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
“How much confidence you have in each of the following …?” Civil Society/Independent Institutions(% for “some confidence”, “only a little confidence” not shown)
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The Media
Your religious leaders
Ipsos
Opinion Survey Firms
Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs)/Civil Society
Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC)
Communications Authority of Kenya (CA)
Director of Public Prosecutions Keriako Tobiko
Independent Police Oversight Authority (IPOA)
National Land Commission
Salaries and Remuneration Commission
Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission
46%
43%
33%
22%
21%
16%
13%
11%
11%
10%
10%
9%
4%
8%
4%
7%
6%
28%
19%
21%
15%
26%
21%
29%
A LOT NONE
Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
Level of Confidence -Trend Analysis: % saying “a lot of confidence”(% for “some confidence” ,“only a little confidence, ”no confidence at all” not shown)
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Institution/Public Office HolderNov. 2013 Feb. 2014 May 2014
Sept. 2014
Oct. 2014
Nov. 2014
Dec. 2014
April 2015
The President (Uhuru Kenyatta) 53% 41% 32% 43% 71% 51% 67% 48%
The Deputy President (William Ruto) 48% 38% 27% 38% 62% 42% 63% 35%
Cabinet Secretaries 18% 11% 11% 17% 48% 19% - 14%
The Attorney General : Githu Muigai 23% 14% 12% 19% 42% 22% - 18%
County Commissioners/Provincial Administration Officers - - - 14% - 18% - 19%
Department of Immigration 16% 7% 8% 10% - 12% - 10%
National Government in general - - - 27% - 26% - 19%
County Assembly Representatives (MCAs) - - - 21% - 20% - 20%
County Governments 28% 13% 13% 20% - 22% - 22%
Governors - - - 23% - 25% - 21%
Senators 21% 11% 13% 19% - 23% - 19%
The Media 68% 43% 31% 42% - 42% - 46%
Religious Leaders 50% 39% 36% 46% - 35% - 43%
Civil Society/NGOs - - - 18% - 28% 45% 21%
Opinion Survey Firms - - 20% 22% - 25% - 22%
Ipsos Limited (Kenya) - - - 33% - 34% - 33%
National Land Commission 16% 7% 9% 14% - 14% - 10%Salaries and Remuneration Commission (SRC) 23% 13% 12% 13% - 13% - 10%
Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) 30% 21% 16% 23% - 23% - 16%
Director of Public Prosecutions 32% 8% 10% 12% - 15% - 11%Ethics and Anti Corruption Commission (EACC) - - - - - 11% - 9%Independent Police Oversight Authority (IPOA) - - - - - - - 11%
Communications Authority of Kenya (CA) - - - - - - - 13%
Level of Confidence -Trend Analysis: % saying “a lot of confidence”(% for “some confidence” , “only a little confidence, "no confidence at all” not shown)
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Institution/Public Office HolderNov. 2013
Feb. 2014 May 2014
Sept. 2014
Oct. 2014
Nov. 2014
Dec. 2014
April 2015
The Police 20% 11% 11% 19% - 18% - 15%
Inspector-General of Police: David Kimaiyo 24% 12% 15% 19% - 19%
Inspector-General of Police: Joseph Boinnet - 15%
Cabinet Secretary for Interior: Joseph Nkaissery - - - - - - 48%
Intelligence Service/National Intelligence Services (NIS) 18% 10% 10% 16% - 16% - 15%
The Military/Kenya Defense Forces - - 27% 37% - 48% - 32%
The Judiciary - - 17% - 17% - 15%
The Supreme Court 28% 16% 16% 20% - 25% - 21%
Other Courts 21% 12% 9% 13% - 15% - 12%
The Chief Justice: Willy Mutunga 27% 16% 15% 24% - 27% - 22%
Judges of the Kenyan Courts - - - 16% - - - 16%
Political Parties - 7% 10% 22% - 19% - 19%
CORD Principal Raila Odinga 37% 25% 24% 28% - 24% - 29%
CORD Principal Kalonzo Musyoka - - - 20% - 16% - 18%
CORD Principal Senator Moses Wetangula - - - 19% - 15% - 18%
Retired President Kibaki - - - 27% - - - -
Retired President Moi - - - 26% - - - -
National Assembly /Parliament 15% - 15% - 11%
Speaker of the National Assembly: Justin Muturi 19% 12% 12% 16% - 15% - 14%
Majority Leader :Aden Duale - - - 16% - 18% - 15%
Your Member of Parliament /MPs 17% 9% 11% 23% - 22% - 22%
First Lady Margaret Kenyatta - - - 39% - 50% - 55%
The Opposition - - - - - 16% 42% 18%
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“Please tell me how much confidence you have in the IEBC…?” (Trend Analysis – Only shown for: “a lot of confidence” and “no confidence at all”)
February 2013
(n=5,971)
June 2013 (n=2,000)
November 2013
(n=2,060)
February 2014
(n=2,031)
May 2014 (n=2,059)
September 2014
(n=2,021)
November 2014
(n=2,005)
April 2015 (n=1,964)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
62%
32%
30%
21%16%
23% 23%
16%2%
22%
32%25%
29% 31%25% 28%
A lot of Confidence No Confidence at all
Jubilee vs. Grand Coalition Government Performance on 13 Policy Areas (By Total, Supporters of Main Political Parties/Coalitions)
26Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)
Jubilee: Policy Areas Better Worse % Difference Same Not Sure
Economic growth 38% 48% -10% 13% 1%
Cost of living 25% 63% -38% 12% 1%
Education 52% 30% +22% 17% 0%
Human rights 27% 44% -17% 26% 3%
Corruption 14% 73% -59% 12% 1%
Crime 13% 71% -58% 14% 2%
Terrorism 10% 79% -69% 10% 2%
Freedom to criticize the government 25% 44% -19% 27% 4%
Wildlife protection 29% 34% -5% 30% 7%
Land issues 20% 62% -42% 15% 2%
Environmental conservation 31% 33% -2% 30% 5%
Medical /Health Services 61% 24% +37% 15% 1%
Respect for the constitution/rule of law 27% 37% -10% 30% 7%
Total positive difference =59%Total negative difference =329%
For further information contact: Dr Tom WolfSocial Political [email protected]
Victor RatengProject Manager - Opinion Polls [email protected]
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