conference report - province of manitoba · president ralph groening closed the conference...

Conference Report

Table of Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 1

1. Keynote Addresses ........................................................................................................................ 3

2. Scene-Setting ................................................................................................................................. 4

3. Panel Discussion # 1: Coping with the New Normal: Emergency Management in a Changing

Climate ........................................................................................................................................... 7

4. Panel Discussion #2: Manitoba’s Changing Demographics and the Future of Emergency

Management ............................................................................................................................... 14

5. Closing Remarks........................................................................................................................... 19

6. Conclusions and Way Forward .................................................................................................... 20

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Executive Summary Creating a Vision for a Resilient Future: Emergency Management in Manitoba 2020 and Beyond was held on January 14, 2016 at Portage la Prairie. The event gathered community leaders, policy makers, scientists, emergency managers, and citizens to talk about climate change and changing demographics and how this will affect the policy and practice of emergency management in the province. There were 195 participants to the conference. A greater number (46%) were from municipalities across Manitoba, federal and provincial government (36%), businesses, crown corporations, and associations (13%), NGOs and academe (5%).

The conference was also transmitted via webcast to northern communities in Flin Flon, Leaf Rapids, Lynn Lake, Gillam and Thompson, as well as in Swan River and Mountain.

The program started with keynote addresses from Honourable Steve Ashton, Minister responsible for emergency measures, and Mayor Chris Goertzen, president of the Association of Manitoba Municipalities (AMM). Lee Spencer, Assistant Deputy Minister for Emergency Measures and Protected Services, set the scene for the discussion and gave his perspectives on how the risk environment is evolving and future directions for emergency mangement in Manitoba. Two panel discussions followed the scene-setting. Each panel began with a 20-minute presentation and every panel member was then given five minutes to react or share their insights about the topic. The moderated discussion and interaction with participants drew out these broad themes:

1. Hazards are becoming more complex and the risk environment is changing. This is expanding the scope of emergency management from responding to the immediate impact of emergencies to managing the risks causing these events.

2. The interdependence of critical infrastructures triggers cascading effects -- a disruption in one asset or process can trickle down, causing impacts that can cascade into other services that communities rely on for sustainability and economic prosperity. Resilient infrastructures must be a priority in order to manage cascading impacts.

Close to 200 participants attended the conference

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3. Climate change disrupts businesses. It is imperative to make businesses resilient so that the overall economy is not severely interrupted.

4. Resilience has a price tag, but the cost of doing nothing may prove more costly in terms of critical service interruptions and asset damages. Government, businesses and financial institutions need to start discussions on financing solutions towards resilience.

5. Understanding risks and prioritizing risks for mitigation are important elements of risk management. This is key to bringing change in people’s attitudes and in promoting open-mindedness, and in responding effectively to address those risks.

6. Effects of climate change can vary in each region. The challenge is to understand how impacts translate locally to critical infrastructure assets and then find solutions that fit.

7. Access and availability of local information is a critical first step in effective decision-making. There is no one size fits all solution for rural Manitoba so it is important to have the appropriate data for planning and decision-making. Tools are coming to support this step through resources such as the newly established Prairie Climate Centre at University of Winnipeg.

8. Local authorities and communities are responsible for emergency management and they should be empowered in that role.

Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation Deputy Minister Lance Vigfusson and AMM Vice-President Ralph Groening closed the conference highlighting a few key takeaways.

The conference was well-received, based on the tabulated results of the participants’ feedback

survey. The overall rating was 4.21, based on a five-point scale that measured the conference’s

design, content and results. Depending on future uptake and relevance, the conference can be

held biennially to tackle different themes.

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1. Keynote Addresses

Mayor Chris Goertzen, President of the Association of Manitoba Municipalities, and Honourable Steve Ashton, Minister responsible for Emergency Measures, delivered the welcome remarks. Mayor Goertzen emphasized the role of municipalities in dealing with emergencies. Municipalities have comprehensive emergency preparedness plans designed to protect citizen’s safety, health, and environment and properties when emergencies strike. However, emergency preparedness is not static - the rise of climate-induced emergencies combined with changing rural demographics means we and our emergency plans must also change. He encouraged all to share their experience and the challenges that they are facing and the plans they have for them. As community leaders, the inputs of municipalities are essential to the success of the conference. Minister Ashton highlighted the importance of having a clear vision as a key to effective emergency management. He cited as one good example was the construction of the floodway which came out of the lessons from the 1950 flood. Despite challenges, it proved to be one of the greatest examples of flood mitigation, which has saved the province $38 billion worth of damage. The province continue to make strategic investments to mitigate flood, including the floodway expansion in Winnipeg, community ring dikes, work on the Lake Manitoba-Lake St. Martin. The Minister also brought attention to how climate change and the growing diversity of the province will bring new dimensions to emergency management. He also noted the two elements that are driving demographic changes in the province – immigration, and the growing aboriginal population, particularly the young population. First Nation communities are the most impacted and hardest hit communities during flood events in 2009, 2011 and 2014. Minister Ashton also acknowledged the degree of reliance to local authorities in dealing with emergencies, with the province serving as back up. In closing, Minister Ashton expressed hope that by bringing everyone together in this conference, we will be reminded of the true Manitoba spirit of learning from experience. In Manitoba, a key element of emergency management is having a vision that understands the importance of a changing environment – a vision that looks both at the climate and the human side of emergencies, he said.

Mayor Goertzen: Emergency preparedness is

not static – this means we and our emergency

plans must also change.

Minister Ashton: A vision that understands the

changing environment is key to effective

emergency management.

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2. Scene-Setting Lee Spencer, Assistant Deputy Minister for Emergency Measures and Protective Services

To set the stage for the panel discussions, Spencer described the current risk environment and how emergency management is traditionally approached in Manitoba. He also gave his perspectives on how the risk environment is evolving and future directions for emergency management in Manitoba.

Emergency Management in Manitoba Spencer observed that emergency management in Manitoba is characterized by the following:

focus on traditional emergencies such floods, fires and other high-frequency, low-impact events;

reactive to issues and opportunities arising from events that have occurred, and not identifying potential or emerging risks and opportunities;

tendency to consider emergencies as isolated event

rather than part of a cascading emergency;

strong focus on response, without equal attention to preparedness and mitigation. Mitigation is also focused on flood risks and is usually implemented post-disaster, which is effective in preventing a repeat of an event.

However, a review of disasters events the last 18 months across Canada and in Manitoba show the advent of “non-traditional” emergencies – train derailments, bombings, occupation of the Jenpeg dam, and tornadoes. These events highlight the importance of understanding the risk environment. The goal is to make sure municipalities, the province and even the private the sector have the capacity and resources needed to prepare appropriately based on the risk environment they operate. In 2008, a planning section was brought on board at Manitoba EMO following the global pandemic. Because of that forward-looking action, the province was able to get ready for the pandemic that occurred in 2009, and the avian influenza outbreak that occurred in 2010. The plans were tested, worked, and were improved based on lessons learned from those responses. It takes about 24 hours for a disease from Asia to get to downtown Winnipeg, and that is how long we have to react to an event like that, Spencer said. Emergency Management in 2020 and Beyond The future will be characterized by low-frequency, high impact events, or emergencies arising from large shifts such as climate change and demographic changes. Connectivity and interdependence of networks and systems will draw attention to the importance of resilient critical infrastructures. All these will require a more proactive approach to emergency management, with increased focus on preparedness and mitigation.

Spencer: Adapt today's environment for tomorrow

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In order to adapt to this kind of environment, Spencer suggested the following: 1. Place a higher priority on non-traditional emergencies

Understanding risks to low-frequency, high impact events such as rail disasters in urban areas, widespread utility outage, disruption of communication network through cyber attack, is equally important as floods and forest fires. Planning for these low-frequency high-impact events entails going beyond the current level of planning. Evacuation planning, for example, would have to consider scenarios for evacuating large urban centres such as Winnipeg. Emergency plans should also be made adaptable to multi-consequence events. The 2014 Otterburne pipe explosion, the Nigido bridge failure in Ontario or a prolonged snow storm illustrate this point. When the fire was contained after the pipe explosion, it cut access to natural gas for seven days which caused power outages in communities and deprived households of natural gas heating in -40 conditions. If the bridge shut down for several days, the flow of goods will be disrupted, breaking the supply chain. It could put pressure on businesses that provide critical services, cut the supply of fuel or even put pressure on the health care system.

2. Increase attention towards potential or developing emergencies arising from large-scale shifts in the environment, technology or society. This includes climate change and the pressures or opportunities arising from demographic shifts. A climate with more warm days can bring different challenge, such as drought and water security.

3. Consider emergencies in terms of their potential to create a set of cascading impacts requiring response, instead of isolated events. This means focusing on critical infrastructure resilience and the interdependencies between all networks and systems that are essential for the health, safety, security and economic well-being of citizens and communities. Lessons can be drawn from the 2014 Otterburne pipe explosion and the Nigido bridge failure.

4. Provide equal focus on preparedness and mitigation, not just response

Increased level of preparedness can be achieved through better training, public education

and communication.

Mitigation efforts can also be directed towards other hazards such as rail traffic in major

cities, environment emergencies, pandemics, and risks to potential emergencies that climate

change may bring, such as drought or water security. We can also start the dialogue on how

mitigation can be more anticipatory and establish a business case in investing in advance

and where to invest in advance.

The province has been laying the groundwork for advancing emergency management in 2020 and beyond. This includes:

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Enhancing the current training program for emergency management professionals, which includes increasing the number of provincial government staff familiar with incident command systems

Drafting a municipal emergency preparedness regulation in partnership with the Association of Manitoba Municipalities (AMM), that will clarify better the roles and responsibilities of the province and the municipality

Enhancing escalated decision-making structures in government to ensure effective and timely decision-making

Putting greater emphasis on non-structural and pre-disaster mitigation. This includes a flood mapping initiative using LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) and new modeling techniques to measure flood risks in communities at major rivers and drainage systems. A pilot project on risk assessment is also ongoing, that will provide better data on types and costs of impacts that can inform preparedness and mitigation programs

A multi-departmental business continuity program that will enable continuity of critical government services during an outage, whether due to a pandemic, network disruptions or power or communication outages

Initial groundwork on a regulation that will ensure business continuity of companies that provide critical services to government. An example is Public Safety Canada’s Critical Infrastructure Advisory Network, a cross-sectoral platform that implements a regional resilience assessment program that audits emergency, safety and security plans of critical service providers.

In closing, Spencer encouraged emergency management professionals and society’s leadership to spend time understanding these trends and look for opportunities to be ahead of the curve. “Adapt today’s environment for tomorrow, and my hope is today’s discussion is going to lead us there,” he said.

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3. Panel Discussion # 1: Coping with the New Normal: Emergency

Management in a Changing Climate

Speaker: Danny Blair, University of Winnipeg Moderator: Keith McCullough, 680 CJOB Radio Winnipeg Panel Members:

Chuck Davidson, Manitoba Chamber of Commerce

Brian Kayes, City of Brandon

Heather Mack, Insurance Bureau of Canada

Roger Rempel, Climate Resilience Systems Training The aim of the panel discussion was to identify potential challenges that emergency managers will face as a result of a warming climate. Danny Blair provided the springboard for discussion with a presentation on how Manitoba’s climate is changing:

Between 1971-2013, temperatures in Winnipeg increased at an average of: 1.2°in

spring, 1.7°in summer, 2.6°in fall, and 4.7°in winter.

Changes in Manitoba’s climate depend on projected global emissions and time period. By 2080, Under a Medium Carbon Scenario, summers in Winnipeg will be similar to the climate of Nebraska. Under a High Carbon Scenario, summers in Winnipeg will be similar to Oklahoma and northern Texas, while winters will be similar to Minnesota and Wisconsin. The climate in Churchill will be similar to Kenora.

There is variability in the range of projections developed based on scientific models. In general however, these changes will result to longer ice-free season, hotter summers, shorter and warmer winters, fewer blizzards and fewer cold snaps. These weather patterns will potentially cause heat waves, droughts, fires, storms, floods and invasive species. These will also have implications to winter roads, human health, insurance, and can cause extreme weather events, forest fires, and crop failures, among others. Planning for resilience is imperative.

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Each panel member gave their views on the topic.

Mack focused on the cost of adaptation and risk financing. She noted upward trends in the amount of insurance payouts for property damage due to weather since 1995. Rempel presented on the linkages of climate change risks with emergency management, and how resilient infrastructures as a strategy to mitigate risks can be achieved. He highlighted the importance of understanding how shifts in climate translate to local impacts in order to develop appropriate responses. One tool is climate vulnerability assessment, using frameworks such as the Canadian PIEVC framework. Applying these frameworks can create results that support community dialogue about what impacts can be expected, which consequences are acceptable, what capacities are in place to manage these consequences, and what emergency management response is required and where. Davidson talked about how climate change is putting pressure on businesses. Businesses like certainty, and climate change is taking that certainty away, he said. A big challenge to the business community is understanding what that uncertainty brings, and having the proper plans and strategies in place in order to mitigate those impacts and to ensure that the economy is not severely interrupted. Kayes told a futuristic story set in 2100 about a future Manitoba with a desert-like climate. It described an environment where sudden and severe weather was the norm, and compounding incidents of extreme pollution, pandemics, environmental hazards, affected every aspect of the community. It was a future where emergency response was no longer good enough and emergency managers had to become big picture thinkers.

The moderated discussion and interaction with participants drew out these broad themes: Expanding scope of emergency management The panel brought to the fore how climate-induced emergencies affect the broader sphere of society – economy, infrastructure, health, public policy, businesses. This expands the scope of emergency management from responding to the immediate impact of events to managing the risks causing these events. Hazards are becoming more complex. Climate change is likely to trigger more droughts, more intense rain, tornadoes, ice storms. The probability of extreme events is creeping upwards as Blair said, but Rempel also cautioned that climate change may not always occur in slow and incremental changes. Manitoba is used to water-driven impacts like flood, but it is not set up for extreme high temperatures, extreme precipitation events, warmer nights, or droughts. The province is also not ready for cascading, multiple-location events, complicated by a growing population that is growing older, and infrastructure assets that are not resilient.

Emergency response is no longer

good enough; emergency managers

have to become big picture thinkers

- Kayes

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L-R: Danny Blair, Brian Kayes, Chuck Davidson, Roger Rempel, Heather Mack, Keith McCullough

Critical infrastructures and its cascading effects The presentation of Rempel highlighted the interdependence of infrastructures and the cascading impacts within these interdependencies. Disruption in one critical system can trickle down and cascade into other systems and services that communities rely on for sustainability and economic prosperity. Davidson gave a clear example: when Highway 75 shutdown for six weeks due to flooding, it cost businesses $100 million in lost revenues and additional expenses. For economic and community resilience to climate disruption, development of resilient infrastructure must be a priority. Infrastructure has to be designed and built based on future conditions for the region. There are challenges to achieving this goal, as Rempel identified:

Climate change has a wider range of operating conditions that goes beyond what current engineering codes and standards design for. Except for a handful of codes for northern communities, codes have not yet been changed to consider future conditions. Thus, engineers face two design realities: design to code based on historical conditions, or design for conditions expected in the future climate, especially for critical infrastructure assets built for longer service lives, as these assets will be expected to see many operating environment changes induced by the future climate. The gap between the two design approaches represents unmanaged risk.

Uncertainty in climate models exists, but continues to improve. This uncertainty should not prevent risk reduction planning, as engineers are fluent in designing for conditions of uncertainty (e.g. seismic engineering, water resources engineering).

Climate Change takes place over longer timescales than the usual timescales for emergency management planning.

Infrastructure procurement models based on lowest price selection encourage designs that will only meet current codes and standards (i.e. design to historical climate). Lowest price procurement effectively penalizes engineering bids that may be costlier at onset (for enhanced resiliency in design), but are less expensive over the asset’s life cycle. This approach effectively screens out engineering solutions that can offer resilience in favour of cheapest initial cost. Cheaper initial cost often translates to higher ongoing cost over the life cycle of the asset, and it locks in a design approach that only considers historical climate conditions.

Ownership of liabilities will also be an issue when code-compliant infrastructure fails due to risks induced by conditions that extend beyond historical climate.

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Rempel pointed out that climate change adaptation is the space where emergency management professionals, engineers, asset managers and the broader communities can work together on. This creates opportunities for emergency management:

to widen its focus from post-incident response to increase priority on adaptive strategies

to transfer knowledge, build capacities through collaboration and create a unified approach to adaptive strategies

to address pending risks by applying risk assessment tools and risk management strategies to create solutions

Making businesses resilient Climate change affects business on two fronts: it increases the cost of doing business, and it takes away certainty. Davidson explained that a big challenge for the business sector is to understand the new norm and how to deal with it. It is imperative to make businesses resilient so that the overall economy is not severely interrupted. Some actions towards this end may include:

integrating climate change in value chain analysis to inform decisions: how does a road closure due to flooding affect their supplier to deliver raw materials? When farmers can’t plant because of flooding in the past planting season, how will this affect their production output in the next cycle? Where can a company outsource a service when the workforce is affected?

enabling companies to prepare and implement business continuity plans, making sure companies have safety nets in case of severe interruptions, e.g., running businesses off-site, sourcing alternative suppliers

educating the public on the new realities and presenting options on how to mitigate impacts in the long-term

Resilience has a price tag Disasters cost money. Mack shared data on insurance payouts showing that in Manitoba, the average payout for property damage due to weather is $220 million a year, double than in 1995. The DFAA claims reached $1 billion in 2010 and $1.4 billion in 2013. In 2015, 89% of insurance payouts for weather disasters across Canada came from Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta.

Panel #1 Q&A

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The cost of adaption or building resilience may even cost more. Under the current financial structure, taxpayers foot the bill either through insurance premiums or taxes. Canada is the only G7 country that has no national flood program. The private insurance markets are changing their products to be more responsive to needs, but it is not guaranteed to be accessible to the most vulnerable.

There is no question that resilience needs to be done, as the cost of doing nothing may equally be harmful. As Davidson illustrated, if Highway 75 was not raised to flood-proof stage and that road shuts down for six weeks every year, there will be severe impacts to the economy on an annual basis. Rempel said the cost effectiveness on whether to pull the trigger on investments for resilient infrastructures will boil down to how much resilience will be desired by the community. Resilience or lack of it will be a differentiating factor in attracting investments to a community, and in improving the livability and viability of the community. Mack suggested conversations need to evolve beyond how much resilience costs. Federal and provincial governments need to create an enabling environment where more money is given to municipalities, and taxpayers are less burdened in paying for it. There may be impetus as well to study how build-back-better initiatives can be covered in current financial assistance programs. Understanding risks, changing behaviors

Resilience is achieved not only through large infrastructure projects. A comment from the audience who was working on environmental health talked about building a resilient community that is not just about the infrastructure itself, but building a community that has infrastructure that protects health from climate change hazards. An important element of risk management is understanding and awareness of risks, and what it means to people and communities. This is key to bringing change in people’s attitudes and in promoting open-mindedness that Kayes was advocating for. He emphasized the importance of empowering people to look after themselves and be prepared for all possibilities, e.g., putting a tornado shelter in a new house just in case the next generation in the family needs it in the future. However, as Spencer raised in the Q&A, one of the challenges in advocating for change is “quantifiable, useable and understandable “So Whats?” Blair affirms; adding that efforts are being made to put data on people’s hands so they can properly, appropriately answer the question. Risk assessment tools, such as Engineers Canada’s Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) protocol, are available to build a better understanding of risks. The data and knowledge generated from applying a framework like PIEVC can lead to informed decisions and facilitate a dialogue among all stakeholders on what impacts are acceptable, what capacities are in place to cope with the impacts, and what actions are required. A good example on how results of the risk assessment led to informed decisions was the floodway expansion that Rempel talked about when he was responding to a question on whether current standards of building flood structures to withstand 100-year events will change given what the climate models are suggesting. The floodway expansion was

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conducted because original flood return periods used to design the original floodway have changed drastically in the decades since the Floodway was first built. Rempel explained that integrating better data and information as it becomes available is part of the ongoing effort that is essential for effective climate change adaptation. It is important to build in an understanding through continuous monitoring of what is changing and where it is changing, in order to respond effectively and concentrate resources on those emerging high priority risks. Learning from experience is also an important part of the process, and this includes looking at experience of other provinces and analyzing what may or may not work in Manitoba. Blair cited Alberta which recently created an advisory board on climate models, an idea that came out of the recent floods in the province. Mack cited the experiences of Medicine Hat, Okotoks, and the City of Edmonton that implemented innovative solutions to address their risks. Okotoks built storm drains that protected them from wild spread damage during the flood. The City of Edmonton built parks as deliberate flood zones where water can be diverted during flood events. Changing attitudes and behaviors is also facilitated by having clear goals that everyone understand and agree on. Kayes believe that this is a role for emergency managers – to help people work towards that goal to become a resilient community, in whatever way the communities define it.

Finding solutions that fit Effects of climate change can vary in each region. The challenge, as Rempel suggested, is to understand how impacts translate locally and then find site-specific solutions that fit. What works as a solution in Canada’s north may not necessarily work as a solution for southern regions, he said. This idea loops back to the points raised in the previous section about decisions informed by examining risks. In the discussion about community shelters raised during the Q&A, Kayes touched on some factors and the thought processes involved in identifying appropriate measures to mitigate risks. The question was asked about using community shelters during a smoke event, particularly for hospital patients and elder care home. Kayes suggested looking at other options as it might be effective in the long run to design and build the care home to protect itself from a smoke event, rather than building community shelters that may have the appropriate facilities for the elderly. It is best to enable the community to look after themselves. Broad-based consultation among stakeholders is also a critical part of the process. Rempel made this point when he talked about the floodway expansion project. Part of the consultation process was allowing upstream and downstream stakeholders to express their concerns. In this process, a deliberate attempt was made to incorporate the impacts to stakeholders upstream and downstream of the project. The last thing you want to do, said Rempel, was to create solutions in one location that trigger undesirable impacts to people in another location. You must work to find an acceptable balance for a given region.

Understand how impacts translate

locally and then find solutions that fit -

Rempel

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Wrap up The discussion closed with these final messages from the panel:

Mack: Share information, involve insurers, think about all your risks, and think beyond your borders – even an earthquake in Vancouver can impact Manitoba Rempel: Resilience is the first priority; design the infrastructure based on future climate. Davidson: Be prepared; mitigate risks to lessen the impact on our overall economy Kayes: Learn from experience. Begin to think about how to look after yourself and your own family Blair: Forget about the past as a surrogate for the future; don’t think that what we have done in the past is good enough for the future. That is not how resilience is built.

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4. Panel Discussion #2: Manitoba’s Changing Demographics and the

Future of Emergency Management Speaker: Wilf Falk, Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Moderator: Laura Rance, Manitoba Co-Operator Panel members:

Brian Franklin, Southwest Emergency Management Group Richard Harder, Eastman Immigrant Services Cailin Hodder, Canadian Red Cross in Manitoba Jack Lindsay, Brandon University-Applied Disaster and Emergency Studies

The panel tackled the implications of demographic changes on planning for and responding to emergencies. Rance gave her observations on how rural Manitoba has or is changing. She emphasized the importance of connections and how these connections can be an asset or hold people back, especially when in welcoming new people to communities who are bringing new ideas and new values, and allowing those ideas to grow and become part of the community. She also threw a few concepts that can help frame the discussion:

Efficiency vs. Value. Efficiency, in the context of maintaining and building public infrastructures, looks at economic cost and benefits. Value looks at impact to people, which may change the kind of discussion or decisions made.

Responsibility. This connotes duty or obligation, but if broken down into two – Response and Ability – it becomes an opportunity, a choice, or something that people may be more willing to do

Sustainability, or maintaining things as they are, where what we will have in the future is only as good as what we have today, as against Resilience.

Survive, which defines whether we are the last person standing, as against Thrive, which implies we want to lead and look for solutions that benefit us all. In a rural context, is it good enough to compete for resources to be the last community standing? What may be a “win” is having a vision that looks beyond personal interests but looks at community as a whole.

Falk presented the latest trends and future directions of the population in Manitoba. He

covered a number of demographic areas, such as the latest provincial and regional outlook

on population and labor force levels, the age and gender dimension, and population

projections on First Nations and Metis communities.

Manitoba’s population will reach 1.4 million persons by 2020.

There will be more younger people (age 25-47) in the province, both male and females

There will be more persons in the older age group (age 55+)

There will be increase in the young age group (age 0-14)

There will be less in the “oldest of the old” (age 75+)

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Manitoba will grow an average of 1,700 persons per year. Much of this growth will happen in Winnipeg (78, 200 per year).

On a regional basis, Falk talked about his third rule of demographics, that demographic facts are not transferable from one region to another.

Higher percent growth will occur in South Central (Winkler, Morden, Altona; 12.2%), Southeast (Steinbach, Beausejour; 11.8%) and Winnipeg (10.9%). The southeast will show higher increase in the 20-24 and mid-40s age groups, but there are also differences within the region, such as between Steinbach and Beausejour.

There is negative growth expected in the Parklands area (Dauphin, Swan River). The region also have the oldest demographic in the province

Population in Interlake, North Central and the North will slightly increase.

First Nations and Metis communities are among the faster growing communities in the province, and are traditionally younger. First Nations have more younger and less older individuals than Metis.

Prevalence of disability is higher in the 70+ age bracket

Males are living longer. They have higher life expectancy at birth, although the gap between male and female is getting narrower.

The province will release a publication on January 18 that explores the impacts of

demographic changes happening in the province.

L-R: Wilf Falk, Jack Lindsay, Cailin Hodder, Richard Harder, Brian Franklin, Laura Rance

Each panel member gave their insights on the topic:

Franklin shared how the Southwest Emergency Management Group (SEMG) was able to address staffing and resource constraints for effective emergency response planning and coordination brought about by a declining and aging population. SEMG, formed in 2005, is a partnership between 11 municipalities. It was formed because it was getting to find community volunteers to act as Municipal Emergency Coordinators (MECs). With this set up, municipalities was able to combine resources, such as generators and sandbags. They are also able to meet provincial standards of hiring qualified MECs and bring uniformity in their emergency preparedness. Each municipality set yearly budget and contribute on a per capita basis. They share a full-time coordinator who works with individual emergency committees, make sure plans are current, organizes table top exercises and provides up-to-date information.

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Harder touched on immigration patterns in southeast Manitoba and the challenges that newcomers experience. One of the larger groups settling in the region are ethnic Germans from Russia who prefer to live in rural settings and like to have a little acreage for farming and growing livestock. This preference creates a distance in accessing emergency services, emergency vehicles. The second largest are Filipinos, who have created their own SoutheastMan community, and they are very well connected via social media. Harder observed immigrants tend to create their own private schools, which in a way creates disconnect with the broader community, but on the positive side, newcomers have a strong church community which facilitates sharing or disseminating information. Language is becoming less of a challenge, but it does not guarantee understanding of norms and practices. He cited as example one family who burned garbage in a contained barrel during the wildfire season. Harder suggests improving connections with new comers by hiring more newcomers, ensure stable internet and cell service especially in rural areas, produce more media programs that are relevant for this section of the population. Hodder talked about understanding and addressing vulnerabilities as a critical objective for emergency management – to what threat people are vulnerable, what makes them vulnerable, and how to counteract that vulnerability. This may mean finding ways to reduce the impacts of the hazard itself, building capacities to cope with the hazard, or tackling the root causes of vulnerability, such as poverty, discrimination, and inadequacy of resources. Cascading effects of disasters can be brought down to its impact to the individual – not having access to roads means disruption in employment or livelihood, or even displacement (evacuation). Hodder also advocated for community resilience by developing a strong network of relationships, engaging diverse communities, cultivating a strong volunteer base. Lindsay called for the need for emergency managers to “give up” and let the community be more engaged in emergency management. He explained that hazards are not only about extreme events, but about the people as well. Current emergency management approach “clings” to that hazard as belonging to emergency managers. Emergency managers come from professions where they get the job done, but during disasters, it is important to bring the whole community in – understand what the community’s roles can be, what they can do and what information they have. Communities did not become vulnerable on the day of the disaster, but they have coping capacities that cannot be taken aside during emergencies.

The moderated discussion and interaction with participants also drew out these broad themes: Access and availability of information

Falk emphasized the importance of having information at the appropriate level of geography depending on purpose. He proposed to view information as a corporate resource of the community, and encouraged investments on acquiring data to be less reliant on the federal system to supply local information needs. There is no one size fits all solution for rural

It’s time for emergency managers to

“give up” and bring the community in -

Lindsay

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Manitoba, as Rance pointed out, so it is important to have the appropriate data for making plans. Access and availability of information may be a challenge because of privacy concerns, as one participant shared during the Q&A. However, another participant explained provisions in the PHIA and FIPPA that allow disclosure of personal information if the disclosure is regarding the health and safety of the individual and the public. There are also alternative ways to get to get those information, including resource counsels, community organizations, or from hazard and vulnerability assessments. Empowering communities for emergency management Emergency management in Canada is founded on a community-first basis, where, as Spencer raised in the Q&A, everything revolves around the community. There is also expectation both from the provincial government and citizens that the municipality is capable and have the resources to respond to any crisis affecting the community. But will demographic shifts and other pressures allow communities to sustain this model? Demographic pressures, community size, resources, may change some of the approaches, but as Hodder pointed out, it is a strategic vision to see emergency management as a municipal responsibility because of its

knowledge about the communities, resources and the challenges that go with it. It may require a bold legislation that says disasters belong to the community and not to the disaster management part of the community, as Lindsay said, or mobilizing people in the community including younger ones, as suggested by Harder and Franklin. Local authorities and communities are responsible for emergency management and they should be empowered in that role. Ideas that support this include: - Fostering a community of “We” that breaks the culture of divide. Falk suggested better

civic engagement to counter a “cocooning” type of situation where neighbors do not know each other. Harder called for open-mindedness and initiating connections with newcomers to bring them out of isolation and be better integrated into society. Knowing the community better is also important, and this is where the importance of local information comes into play – who are living in the community, where, who needs special care. These information help in making better decisions about programs, resources, and in addressing vulnerabilities.

- Harnessing the exponential benefits in emergency preparedness and resilience. Hodder

introduced the concept of neighbors-helping-neighbors programs and advocated for

Panel #2 Q&A

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promoting preparedness education to be mandatory in schools. Support systems in the community should come out and enable individuals to be independent and able to support themselves during emergencies.

How do we get the public more community oriented? Lindsay explained that resources during disasters are limited, thus communities need to realize that being prepared and resilient stretches resources. Helping a neighbor be prepared also has personal benefit as it frees up resources that can help you because your neighbor is prepared already. Preparing together puts you in a better place yourself, Lindsay said.

- Promoting a culture of safety and preparedness. One participant commented that Manitoba is located in one of the safest places on the planet, where emergency events do not happen in a scale or intensity as in other places. This contributes to complacency and a government-will-save me attitude.

One of the ways to counter this attitude is to capitalize on and learn from disasters happening across the world. Hodder cited as an example the train derailment in Lac Megantic. “We need to take that in and make people understand the reality that can happen in Manitoba any moment. That will encourage more people to get prepared and use the concentric circle,” said Hodder. Lindsay also stressed the importance of reviewing past decisions made during emergencies and learning from them. For example, it may help to go back to council and review why a state of emergency has to be declared or what were the circumstances that led to that decision. It may lead to discoveries that “natural” disasters are not because of “natural” causes but by decisions 10 or 15 years ago that allow people to build homes in the flood plains. Those decisions need to be revisited to make sure mistakes from that decision are not repeated.

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L-R: MIT Deputy Lance Vigfusson, AMM Vice President Ralph Groening

5. Closing Remarks

MIT Deputy Minister Lance Vigfusson and AMM Vice President Ralph Groening summarized their key take aways from the program.

“What I hear loud and clear is that change is here and we have to be prepared and think differently so we are prepared for the future,” said Vigfusson. Groening recognized the value of the sessions to municipal leaders in further understanding climate change and changing demographics – its causes, its impact to communities, and the practical aspects of dealing with these issues. “As municipal leaders, we know the value of the community and the organizations out there, and all of these people working together,” said Groening.

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6. Conclusions and Way Forward The conference was able to bring together a diverse mix of participants and panel members which facilitated a healthy exchange of ideas on how climate change and demographics may impact on the policy and practice of emergency management in Manitoba. It highlighted the widening scope of emergency management to include natural and human-induced hazards as well as environmental, technological hazards and risks. The interdependence of critical infrastructures also brings a different dimension to emergencies and further emphasizes the need to consider emergencies as cascading instead of isolated events. All these calls for a shift of focus as well as strategy – from responding to the immediate impact of emergencies to managing the underlying risks causing these events. Achieving this requires collaboration across all sectors of society, or the “community of “we”” described in the afternoon panel. This may involve leveraging resources and expertise of emergency management organizations, government, business, professionals, and the community itself. Understanding risks is also important. Investing time and resources in a risk assessment exercise is a good first step. There are tools and methods available for this purpose but equally important is to have a systematic way of integrating data and information into our decision-making process. What was also emphasized in the discussions is the need to capture local knowledge and perceptions of communities in order to encourage change in people’s attitudes, behaviors, and in developing “solutions that fit” towards building resilience.

Based on the outcome of discussions and feedback from participants, the conference proved effective as a platform for consultation and dialogue. It has potential to be a regularly occurring event tackling different themes or topic. Future events may also consider suggestions from participants to focus on, among others, not only on the issues and problems but on how to address them. Improvements on the format also need to be done to lengthen conference days, increase networking opportunities and improve on the panel moderation to encourage more audience participation.

conference report - province of manitoba · president ralph groening closed the conference...

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