CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR DISASTER/CLIMATE RISK

MANAGEMENT

AVOIDING DISASTERS

Based on weather forecasts and near-real time information

Based on awareness of hazards, education indivuals and access to accurate hazard maps

PAGASA-WRF

Near-real time data

Near-real time data

Cagayan de Oro City

Operational Research

READY STORM SURGE HAZARD MAP

Evacuation Centers hit by Yolanda Storm

Surge

Evacuation Centers

PRE-YOLANDA (2010) DETERMINISTIC HAZARD MAP PROBABILISTIC

STORM SURGE HAZARD MAP

70 % of evacuation centers in Tacloban were hit by storm surges

Brgy Andap

566 people were placed in an evacuation center overwhelmed by debris flows (This picture) which is a

type of landslide

NO AMOUNT OF ACCURATE WARNING WILL WORK IF HAZARD MAPS ARE INAPPROPRIATE

What is Disaster Risk?

Risk = f (Hazard , Exposure , Vulnerability)

Disaster Risk “ ’

’ ”

- World Risk Index Report 2013

Probabilistic Multi-Scenario-based Multi Hazard Map

Landscape Storm surge Level 1

Storm surge Level 2 Storm surge Level 3

Storm surge Level 4

Landslide Hazard 5-year rain return Flood scenario 25-year rain return Flood scenario

100-year rain return Flood scenario Multi-Hazard Map Scenario Based

MGB susceptibility map based on interviews and expert opinion

Landscape model Contours Contours Boundaries Landuse 5 –year rain return flood

25 –year rain return flood

100 –year rain return flood

Scenario-based multi hazard maps for building evacution centers, Comprehensive Land Use Plans (CLUP) and Comprehensive Disaster Plans (CDP)

EXAMPLE FOR DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AND LOCATING EVACUATION CENTERS

Municipality of Alang Alang, Leyte

Interviews and expert opinion-based susceptibility map

Interviews and expert opinion-based susceptibility map

Multi-scenario-based probabilistic hazard maps

Why scenario-based maps are necessary

• While historical losses can explain the past, they do not necessarily provide a good guide to the future; most disasters that could happen have not happened yet (UNISDR, 2013). Probabilistic risk assessment simulates those future disasters which, based on scientific evidence, are likely to occur. (UNISDR, 2015).

THANK YOU!