Conceptual Description –Next Generation of Regional Modeling

& Analysis Center

Workshop on Regional Emissions & Air Quality Modeling Studies

July 30, 2008

[Abbreviated] list ofRegional Emissions & Modeling Analysis Issues

• Timing and Deliverables for a wide variety of users• Project management• Computational resources• Data management• Scoping analyses for transport and source apportionment• Choosing a model(s) for air quality science and control analyses

– Process– End result in terms of effort to apply and maintain

• Prospective regional emissions models– Land use NH3– Windblown Dust– MEGAN– CONCEPT– Fire Emissions

• Meteorological models = MM5 vs. WRF• Source – Receptor relationships (global-international-regional-local)

WRAP Regional Modeling & Analysis Center

(WRAPMAC) Theme Areas • Science Upgrades/Data Updates

– Complete Emissions to 2006 through 2008 time frame– Develop Emissions projections considering CC and energy– Annual Meteorological data at 36/12 (4?) km– Fire– Ozone– Nitrogen sources and atmospheric chemistry– Related science – ammonia, dust, et cetera

• Air Quality planning support– NEPA EIS/EIR Cumulative Analysis– Regional Haze implementation– Ozone and PM2.5 NAAQS– Nitrogen and Mercury impacts

Conceptual Structure

• Fast-Track and WRAPMAC Activities– Emissions data preparation, processing, analysis,

storage/management, and distribution– Meteorological data preparation, processing, analysis,

storage/management, and distribution– Integrated analyses

• Develop and apply improved science – ozone, fire and secondary organics, et cetera

• Screening and scoping analyses – receptor, back-trajectories, et cetera• Gridded photochemical modeling with nesting in specific areas• Multiple/hybrid source-receptor apportionment analyses• Perform requested control strategy evaluations

• Delivery of results via interactive tools on web, reports, presentations

Fast-Track vs. WRAPMAC• Fast-Track

– 18 months (early 09 through mid-10)– Key air quality issues for specific clients for specific geographic areas– Fold into WRAPMAC– Deliverables for specific science and planning needs for specific users

• WRAPMAC– 2009-13– Regional modeling– 2009-11 – Science, tool and database development– 2001-13 – air quality planning support

• Scope & Staff– Both Fast-Track and WRAPMAC would rely upon contracted services through

WGA contract, as is currently the case for WRAP data analysis tools and systems– Fast-Track - tailored to individual State’s needs, State or other client agency works

with WRAP staff to determine schedule, deliverables, and milestones, as well as review and approve work products, WRAP staff to cover day-to-day project management and contract administration

– WRAPMAC Regional analysis center addressing goal and objectives of WRAP 2008-12 Strategic Plan, next generation of existing WRAP RMC, will be formed through competitive bid process in early 09

• WRAP Technical Analysis Forum will direct WRAP staff in managing schedule, deliverables, and milestones, TAF will review and approve work products, WRAP staff to cover day-to-day project management and contract administration