comunicação | autor – 00/00/2005 - local lucf inventories and projections: portugal improving...

Comunicação | Autor – 00/00/2005 - Local

LUCF Inventories and Projections: PORTUGAL Improving the Quality of Community GHG Inventories and Projections for the LUCF SectorWorkshop under Working Groups I and II of the EU Climate Change CommitteeIspra, September 22-23, 2005

Vitor Gois – Teresa Costa-Pereira

Improving the Quality of EU GHG Inventories&Projections for the LUCF sector| Ispra – 19/09/2005

National Forest Inventory> Available Years of surveys

• 1st NFI 1965• 1st revision 68-80• 2nd revision 80-90• 3rd revision 90-99

– 90: first assessment– 95: aerial coverage, field work 97-98, results 2000

• 4rd revision– Data collection starting in 2005


National Forest Inventory

> Definitions> Forest (as TBFRA)

• forest trees (potential height >5 m)• >0.5 ha, >10% cover, >20 m width

> Methodology• aerial photos => interpretation => areas• uncertainties estimated for areas (5% )• forest types: 7 species, other species grouped in 2 (broadleaved,

coniferous)• stratified sampling: ground surveys (nº of plots proportional to

forest types distribution)



> Plots• now permanent (previously temporary)• marked on the photos (geo-referenced)• dimensions vary with species• total plots: 2211

> Plot(stand) level:• – Altitude• – Slope• – Origin of stand• – Regime• – Vegetation (shrubs)



> Tree level: • – all trees: dbh (dbh>7.5 cm)• – sampling trees: dbh, age, dbase (30 cm), ht, hc, bark thickness

(coniferous only)• – dominant trees: age, dbh, ht (=>hdom)• – small trees - nº (circles)• – Stem Volume

– function of dbh and ht – coefficients estimated for most forest types

• – Q. suber and Q. rotundifolia - different measurements: – not for wood production– cork production and vitality of stands– dbh, hc, crown diameter– UNFCCC reporting requires volume: estimates based on literature


SNIERPA> National System:

• Legal Framework:– Resolução do Conselho de Ministros n. 68/2005

> LULUCF Inventory• Institute for the Environment

> Focal Point• DGRF: General Directorate Forest Resources• IGP: Geographic Institute

> Entities• FPFP: Federation of Forest Producers

– Soil Survey Studies• CELPA: Paper producers Association

– Land Use Mapping– Expert Data


Future Plans

> LUC Estimate• CLC 2002

HECTARES NC_00

NC_90 Urbano Agricultura Agr. com Veg. Natural Floresta Vegetação Natural Outros Fogo Total

Urbano 168479 5 19 373 231 62 169170

Agricultura 32778 2981400 11559 28281 3866 2704 3060588

Agr.com Veg. Natural 12062 18970 1212515 32397 8509 1839 1286291

4_Floresta 20628 17554 10435 3236345 901 1024 20029 3306915

Vegetação Natural 4360 7535 5768 71607 768211 1195 10627 869303

Outros 384 251 13 11 866 154550 156075

Fogo 194 67 133 31949 11874 8 922 45146

Total 238886 3025780 1240442 3400962 794458 161382 31577 8893488

Source: IGP

TerritóriosArtificializados

Vegetaçãonatural

Agricultura comáreas naturais

AgriculturaFloresta

21 33

4

12

18

819

6

10 12

4

9

1

72

32

28


Future Plans

> Implementation of GPG IPCC 2003• Forest, Cropland, Grassland, Wetlands, Settlements, other• Land Use changes: FF; LF; FL

> Quantification of New Pools• Belowground Biomass• Dead wood+litter• Soil Carbon

> Improve new CRF tables


Future Plans> Review Parameters

• Expansion Factors• Growth Rates• Belowground Biomass

Parâmetros

Growth Rates

Volume stem conversion factor into biomass above ground

Expansion Factors

Conversion Factors

(m3/ha/y) (t dm/m3) (t dm/m3)

total forestPinus pinaster 5.6 0.780 1.247 0.260

other softw ood 5.0 1.440 1.247 0.260Eucalyptus 9.5 0.700 1.237 0.522

Quercus suber 0.5 0.570 1.237 0.522Quercus ilex 0.5 0.570 1.237 0.522

other Quercus 0.5 0.570 1.237 0.522Castanea sativa 5.0 0.560 1.237 0.522other hardw ood 2.9 0.570 1.237 0.522

plantationsPinus pinaster 6.2 .. 1.00 0.200

other softw ood 5.0 .. 1.00 0.200Eucalyptus 10.9 .. 1.00 0.500

Quercus suber 0.6 .. 1.00 0.500Quercus ilex 0.6 .. 1.00 0.500

other Quercus 0.6 .. 1.00 0.500Castanea sativa .. .. 1.00 0.500other hardw ood 2.9 .. 1.00 0.500

Source: DGF; PNAC Jul.2003: fonte Santos Pereira et al, "Quantif icação dos sumidouros terrestres de

carbono em Portugal Continental", Julho 2002, ISA, UTL


Future Plans> Forest Fires

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

k t

on

dm

C

Total biomass removed in commercial harvest Estimated lost of biomass in wildfires

Above biomass losses in FiresForest: 45.6 t/haBush: 11.0 t/ha


Future Plans

> Uncertainty Analysis• Next submission

– Tier 1 & tier 2

• Activity Data: Reported in NFI• Parameters


» PROJECTIONS

National Plan for Climate Change

LUCF projections procedure

Basic assumptions for projections

Policies and measures considered

Projections for 2010


» National Plan for Climate Change

Work started in 2000, in close colaboration with economic agents, envolving different sectors of the Public Administration, having been submitted to 2 public consultation

aproved by a Council Resolution in July 2004

includes projections for 2010

update/revision of projections until 2020

under development results expected for the end of the year


» LUCF projections procedure

Scenarios considered Scenarios based on country demographic and macro-economic scenarios and sectoral scenarios until 2010

Sectoral scenarios based on: • forest production• paper and pulp industry• wood and furniture industry• cork industry

Low and High (higher economic growth) reference scenarios for With Measures and With Additional Measures projections

• Methodology Same approach as for LUCF inventories

• only above-ground biomass considered

• exception: projections consider bushland; inventories not (non-managed land)


» Basic assumptions for projections

Reference scenarios

Forest Area Expansion: annual average for new forest area Low: 0.7% (annual average for the 1980 –2000 period)

High: 1% (annual average for 1995-2000, based on EU funds and subsidies)

NEW FOREST AREA: 1990-2010 [550 000-650 000 ha]

• Deforestation annual net rate: 0.3% of forest area

• Harvest volume harvested [11500 – 13500 (1000 m3)]

• Forest Fires same probability of occurence during the 1990-2010 period

•


» Policies and measures considered National Policies and Measures for the Forestry Sector

P&M Name Objective GHG affectedType of

instrumentStatus

Implementing

Entity

2005 2010 2015 2020

CR1 Promote

the increase of

new forest

areas.

Increase of forest area. In national

terms, new forests (afforestation and

reforestation in accordance w ith

article 3.3 of the Ky oto Protocol) in

Mainland Portugal, since 1990 and

up to 2010 w ill amount up to

betw een 550 – 650 mil há

CO2

Regulatory Under

ImplementationMADRP (DGRF)

[High Scenario]

1,64

[Low Scenario]

1,54

MA1 Promote

CO2 removals

by the forest.

To include the adoption of new

management procedures aimed at

promoting the remov al of CO2, in

addition to the remov als in the

reference scenario.

CO2

EconomicUnder

Implementation

MADRP

(DGRF)

MAOTDR

[High Scenario]

0,80

[Low Scenario]

0,80

GHG emissions reduction (Mton CO2eq.)


» Projections for 2010

Low High

With Measures -1.54 -1.64 With Additional Measures -2.34 -2.44

Scenario

(Mton CO2 eq.)LUCF

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