computer generations & complexity: the necessity for ... · computer generations &...

Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018

13

Computer Generations & Complexity:The Necessity for Collaboration

@GlenBrumbaugh

Glen Brumbaugh

Social Connections 13 Philadelphia, April 26-27 2018

13

Today’s Tapestry

A number of threads;

woven together to tell a story


Tapestry Threads

• Hardware & network communications evolution

• Software interaction (communications) evolution

• Hardware & Software communications are equivalent

• IT organizational changes

• Teamwork evolution

• Machines modeled after human understanding

✓All communication patterns are equivalent

• Collaboration infrastructure development


13

Generation I

1950s – 1960s


Generation I - Hardware

• Organizations had one computer✓ It filled a room✓ It was very expensive✓ Hardware costs dwarfed software & human costs

• Peripheral devices provided by vendor

• Beginning of Plug Compatible Machines✓ Initially, only IBM peripherals✓ Tape (1965 - Telex)✓ Disk (1968 – Memorex)

• Collaboration Technology✓ Zerox machine (1949)✓ IBM Selectric Typewriter (1961)


IBM X-20-8020 Flowcharting Template (1965)


Zerox 914 (1959)


Generation I - Software

• Operating Systems – OS/360✓$5B; half the cost of the Manhattan project

✓Second largest project of decade (Apollo Moon #1)

✓Required over 5,000 person years of development

• Programming Languages✓Fortran

✓COBOL


Generation I - Collaboration & Technology

• Roles✓ Business Analysts✓ Systems Analysts✓ Programmers✓ Typically small teams (handful of people)

• Communication Vehicles✓ Syntax Diagrams

▪ Backus Normal/Naur Form (BNF) – “Railroad tracks”✓ Hand drawn flowcharts✓ Software behavioral documentation

▪ Decision Tables▪ State Change diagrams


Generation I – State of Communications

• Communications established between computers and peripherals

• Standardization of peripheral connections limited to emulation

• Development of first Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC) processes

• Document driven, linear, hierarchical development✓ But we developed OS/360 and put a man on the moon


Generation I – Communication Sets


13

Generation II

1970s – 1980s


Generation II - Hardware

• Development of “Mini” computers✓ IBMI I (originally System 34)

✓ UNIX

✓ Tandem, etc.

• Development of “Micro” computers✓ DOS/Windows

✓ OS/2

✓ Apple

• Standardization of peripheral connections & protocols✓ VDU/CRT (3270, 5250, ADM-2, VT-100)

✓ Disk (SMD, SCSI)

• Standardization of computer-to-computer communications✓ LAN/WAN - Token Ring (IBM), Ethernet (IEEE)

✓ DARPA (IP)


Maestro I (1979)


Generation II - Collaboration & Technology

• Computers physically integrated, but not logically.

• Still largely paper based SDLC. E-mail not yet invented/widespread!

• The availability of computer terminals enabled the first generation of automated Project Management tools. ✓ 1975 – Softlab, Maestro (worlds first integrated software development environment)

✓ 1979 – VisiCorp, VisiCalc (worlds first spreadsheet software)

✓ 1985 – High Performance Systems, STELLA (visual programming for system dynamics)

• Increasing use of E-mail and electronic communications✓ 1980s – Bulletin Board Systems (BBS)

✓ 1986 - LISTSERV

• Increasing technical complexity of systems required larger development teams.

• Increasing number of roles led to increasing SDLC communications overhead

• Projects failing due to the SDLC scaling overhead.


Generation II - Software

• Continued evolution of mainframe OS

• New Operating Systems (UNIX, etc.)

• Foundational business software infrastructure✓ IMS✓ CICS✓ DB2✓ XA protocol (ACID transactions; Two-phase commit)

• OTS software✓ SAP✓ PeopleSoft


Generation II – State of Communications

• Peripheral connections standardized

• Computer-to-computer communication protocols standardized

• No standard software-to-software communication protocols or standards

• Human communication still primarily paper based.✓ Automation; beginning with Wang and ending with WordPerfect.


Generation II – Communication Sets


13

Generation III

1990s – 2000s


Generation III - Hardware

• Evolution and improvement of existing platforms✓ Mainframe, Midrange, Personal Computers

• Evolution and improvement of existing peripherals✓ Remember Floppy Disk storage?

✓ Remember 800 BAUD modems?

• Emergence of mobile devices✓ Laptops

✓ Tablets

✓ Personal Data Assistants (PDA) - Palm

✓ Cellular phones


Generation III - Software

• Service Oriented Architecture (SOA)✓ Software-to-software communications

✓ SSL (Netscape 1995)

✓ Enterprise Service Bus (ESB); MQ & Message Broker

✓ Business Process Manager and BPEL

✓ Information Server

✓ WebSphere

✓ WebSphere Commerce Server, WebSphere Portal

• World Wide Web✓ Java

✓ HTTP connectivity

✓ Beginning of Internet of Things (IoT)

✓ IPv6 (3.4 x 1038 addresses)

• Software as a Service (SaaS)✓ Salesforce


Collaboration through Software


Generation III - Collaboration & Technology

• Larger teams✓ Increased IT/Business interaction

▪ Business-to-Consumer (B2C) applications

▪ GUI interfaces

✓ Increasing specialization

• Microsoft Office product suite

• Collaboration software ✓ 1989 – Lotus, Notes

✓ 1990 – Microsoft, Project (for Windows; previously DOS)

✓ 1990 – Free Software Foundation, CVS

✓ 1992 – Shapeware, Visio

✓ 1998 – IBM, Lotus Sametime

✓ 2000 – Open Source, Jabber

✓ 2001 – Microsoft, SharePoint

✓ 2005 – Linus Torvalds, Git

✓ 2007 – IBM, Lotus Connections

✓ 2008 – IBM, Rational Team Concert (Built on Jazz)


Generation III – State of Communications

• Intranet Software-to-Software communication mechanisms standardized (Messaging, HTTP)

• Digitalization of the development process✓ Source Code Management (SCM) systems✓ Electronic communications (Email & instant messaging)✓ Microsoft Office suite

• 2001 – Manifesto for Agile Software Development

• Electronic repositories for Office documents considered “State of the Art”✓ Microsoft Project, Visio, Excel, Word


Generation III Teams


13

Generation IV

2010s – 2020s


Generation IV - Hardware

• Evolution and improvement of existing platforms✓Mainframe, Midrange, Personal Computers

• Emergence of Internet of Thing devices✓RFID sensors

✓2013 - Google Glass

✓2015 - Apple watch

✓2016 – Facebook, Oculus Rift


Generation IV - Software

• Cloud Providers✓ IBM Cloud✓Amazon AWS✓Microsoft Azure

• Cloud Technologies✓Containerization (Docker, Kubernetes, Helm, Istio)✓Cloud Native (JavaScript, Ruby, Go)✓NoSQL (CouchDB, Cloudant, MongoDB)✓CI/CD (Urban Code, Jenkins)


Generation IV - Collaboration & Technology

• Rich vibrant market of collaboration offerings

• Collaboration products siloed by vendor/protocol

• In many ways, still a “formative” marketplace✓Didn’t Lotus come out 20 years ago?

• Collaboration software ✓2011 – Fog Creek Software, Trello✓2013 – Tiny Speck, Slack✓2016 – IBM, Watson Workspace


Generation IV Teams


Generation IV – State of Communications

• Internet Software-to-Software communication standardized (HTTP)

• SDLC processes in Flux✓ “Agile” methodologies✓ “Frozen” Agile (Fragile) methodologies✓ Lightweight PM tools (e.g. Trello)✓ Mixed bag of collaboration tools

• Competing Document Storage tools✓ Box, DropBox, Git, SharePoint, etc.

• Competing Instant Messaging tools✓ Previous set of vendors replaced by Social Media applications

• Competing Project Management & competing Collaboration tools


13

Recap

Teams – Getting Larger


Generation I Teams


Generation II Teams


Generation III Teams


Generation IV Teams


13

Recap

CommunicationsHardware, Software, Human-through-Software


Generation I – State of Communications

• Communications established between computers and peripherals

• Standardization of peripheral connections limited to emulation

• Development of first Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC) processes

• Document driven, linear, hierarchical development✓ But we developed OS/360 and put a man on the moon


Generation II – State of Communications

• Peripheral connections standardized

• Computer-to-computer communication protocols standardized

• No standard software-to-software communication protocols or standards

• Human communication still primarily paper based.✓ Automation; beginning with Wang and ending with WordPerfect.


Generation III – State of Communications

• Intranet Software-to-Software communication mechanisms standardized (Messaging, HTTP)

• Digitalization of the development process✓ Source Code Management (SCM) systems✓ Electronic communications (Email & instant messaging)✓ Microsoft Office suite

• 2001 – Manifesto for Agile Software Development

• Electronic repositories for Office documents considered “State of the Art”✓ Microsoft Project, Visio, Excel, Word


Generation IV – State of Communications

• Internet Software-to-Software communication standardized (HTTP)

• SDLC processes in Flux✓ “Agile” methodologies✓ “Frozen” Agile (Fragile) methodologies✓ Lightweight PM tools (e.g. Trello)✓ Mixed bag of collaboration tools

• Competing Document Storage tools✓ Box, DropBox, Git, SharePoint, etc.

• Competing Instant Messaging tools✓ Previous set of vendors replaced by Social Media applications

• Competing Project Management & competing Collaboration tools


13

Recap

Collaboration – Still getting started


IBM X-20-8020 Flowcharting Template (1965)


Zerox 914 (1959)


Maestro I (1979)


Collaboration through Software


Collaboration Software – Solution Silos

• Instant Messaging (i.e. Slack)

• Group Scheduling (i.e. Google Calendar)

• Document Sharing (i.e. DropBox)

• Content Management (i.e. IBM FileNet)

• Knowledge Management (i.e. Confluence)

• Project Management (i.e. Trello)

• Issue Tracking (i.e. Jira)

• Community Management (i.e. Higher Logic)


13

Summary

Conclusions & Predictions


Review

• Communication patterns are constant across hardware, software, and human interactions.

• Software-to-software integration dependent upon hardware-to-hardware integration. ✓ Hardware integration uses IP.

✓ Software integration uses HTTP.

✓ Software data integration will most likely be a small set of standards (e.g. JSON, XML).

• Human-to-software integration dependent upon software-to-software integration.

• Marketplace has consistently demonstrated a strong drive towards platform/protocol standardization.

• Marketplace has consistently demonstrated a strong drive towards Open Source solutions:✓ Price point

✓ Interoperability

• Prediction: A predominant single channel for human-thruough-software communication will emerge, most likely from the Open Source community.

• Prediction: A small number of object sharing technologies will be standardized on (Git, npm, Box, etc.) The ultimately winners will most likely be managed by the Open Source community.


Hardware Trends - I

• Increasing number of devices

• Massively increasing connection numbers

• Decreasing number of protocols✓Drive towards zero translations

• Bandwidth always consumed✓Brumbaugh’s 1st Law: Bandwidth is never enough

✓Brumbaugh’s 2nd Law: Ceteris paribus, data↑ = info↓


Hardware Trends - II

• Managing increasing communication loads✓ Peer processing (Horizontal scaling)

✓ Delegation (Hierarchical)

• One protocol family (IP)✓ Universal interoperability

✓ E Pluribus Unum (“Out of many, one”)

• Prediction: Everything will talk to everything!


Software Trends

• Collaboration software still at initial market phase✓ Multiple product silos (messaging, file sharing, workflow, PM, etc.)✓ Multiple vendor offerings within each silo✓ Limited inter-operation across silos✓ Limited inter-operation across vendor solutions

• Collaboration silos✓ Instant Messaging✓ Time Management (e.g. Calendars)✓ Document Sharing✓ Project Management & Work Flow✓ Communities

• Silo convergence


Overall Trends


Collaboration Predictions

• Prediction: Market will drive to a single Instant Messaging solution or universal interoperation (similar to Email today)!

• Prediction: Market will drive to a small number of document sharing solutions, possibly by adopting a common API.

• Prediction: The Project Management and/or Collaboration software that best integrates with other software will gain market dominance.

• Prediction: Some major Project Management and/or Collaboration solutions will fall by the wayside.

• Prediction: The Project Management and/or Collaboration solutions that prevail will most likely be Cloud friendly.


13


Your Presenter – Glen Brumbaugh

• Developer, Architect, Professor, Executive, Sailor.

• Services (Cloud & SOA) SME. MQ & Integration Bus

Subject Matter Expert.

• Educated in Computer Science, Economics, and

Business Administration. Professor of Computer

Science.

• Over 45 years of software development (over 5 million

lines of code), design, architecture, and

team/project/program leadership experience in the

financial, insurance, retail, government and other

industry sectors.

• Over two decades of Cloud, Middleware, ESB, and SOA

consulting experience. Part of the team that supported

the initial release of MQSeries and the evolution of SOA.

• First hand witness to numerous technology and process

revolutions; from punch cards to the IoT.

computer generations & complexity: the necessity for ... · computer generations &...

Documents