complexity & uncertainty in environmental indicators
DESCRIPTION
Here is a recording of an abbreviated version of the talk: http://bit.ly/enviroindicate Metrics are not just for eggheads anymore. The difference between complicated and complex is explored here with respect to environmental indicators. Best principles for environmental indicators are also proposed. The implications of use of environmental indicators is not necessarily that we can verify the success of management but provide guidelines and tools for people to better interact with the environment. Ultimately, we should be managing humans not resources.TRANSCRIPT
@cjlortie #enviroindicate
Metrics are not just for eggheads anymore.
Complexities and uncertainties: integrating environmental indicators.
human values tag cloud
@cjlortie #enviroindicate
E. coli transcriptional regulatory network
Most interesting networks of ideas, data, or challenges are complex.
Most interesting networks of ideas, data, or challenges are complex.
power relationship between nations
Most interesting networks of ideas, data, or challenges are complex.
products & manufacturing
Most interesting networks of ideas, data, or challenges are complex.
how we communicate
Most interesting networks of ideas, data, or challenges are complex.
truthfully, any aspect of you
Complexities kills, simplicity sells.
This is an outdated & incorrect view of complexity.
how we communicate
Complexities kills, simplicity sells.
Complexity is not complicated.
Complicated is made up of intricate parts or aspects that are difficult to understand or analyze.
dictionary.com
Complicated is made up of intricate parts or aspects that are difficult to understand or analyze.
difficult implies intractable.
Complexity is the description of a phenomena that emerge from a collection of interacting objects.
Johnson 2009. Simply complexity: A clear guide to complexity theory.
Complexity is the description of a phenomena that emerge from a collection of interacting objects.
Complexity is the description of a phenomena that emerge from a collection of interacting objects.
complicated complex
key: interactions
Solutions that embrace complexityoften include the following elements: 1. incorporate uncertainty 2. visualize 3. use big data 4. measure interactions
Berlow PNAS 2009
uncertainty decreases with network size and complexity
Solutions that embrace complexity 1. uncertainty 2. visualize 3. use big data 4. interactions
greater complexity simplifies predicting interaction strengths
food webs
600 networks 254,032 pair-wise interactions
video: http://www.ted.com/talks/eric_berlow_how_complexity_leads_to_simplicity
extensions to ‘greater complexity simplifies predicting interactions’ are profound & extensive
Solutions to complexity & uncertaintyin environmental measurement theory
certain uncertain
certain
uncertain
Boyd et al 1993 The Academy of Management Review
randomized envtw/ uncertainty
misperceived envt
Type I error
misperceived envt
Type II error
randomized envtw/ uncertainty
expected
observed divergence is inevitable
sources of divergence in metrics
Boyd et al 1993 The Academy of Management Review
data aggregation
correspondence
generalizability
reliability & variability
sources of variation
solution: consider mediating filters, i.e. the level that metricsdescribing complexity are needed/used
subject & audience effects
Particularly important for environmental indicators or three reasons.
1. Expert opinion. 2. Variety of processes we must manage. 3. Integration of ecological, economic, & social is challenging.
But, people love numbers & indicators.
These tools allow us to move the slider from complicated (why I am so tired?) to complex (interactions btwn
caffeine & exercise).
These tools can also be effective agents of change.
But, what are the tools for ecological & environmentalassessment & management?
Jørgensen & Nielsen 2012 Ecological Indicators
1. Define the problem. 2. Determine the ecosystems involved.3. Find and quantify the sources to the problem.4. Use diagnostics to study problem-source relations.5. Determine the tools we need to solve problem.6. Identify measures and take proper action.7. Follow the recovery process by a wide monitoring program.
Steps to integrated ecological–environmental management
ei
ei
Jørgensen & Nielsen 2012 Ecological Indicators
to tackle steps 1-4, we can use
ecological models ecological/environmental indicators ecosystem services
Jørgensen & Nielsen 2012 Ecological Indicators
1. Reductionistic 2. Semiholistic3. Holistic4. Super-holistic
classification of indicators
all levels of indicators push the slider to complexity
best solutions for integrative environmental indicatorsuse both models & services
ocean health index !
http://www.oceanhealthindex.org
super-holistic, complex, but integrative
visual & comparable
actionable & agent of change
audience appropriate: global
Brazil
audience appropriate: flexible
environmental performance index http://epi.yale.edu
holistic, complex, but integrative
visual & comparable
actionable & agent of change
transparent, issue-based, audience appropriate
9 issues & 20 indicators integrated
SNHI Sustainable Neighborhoods for Happiness Index
Cloutier et al 2014 Ecological Indicators
semiholistic, complex, & integrative
Cloutier et al 2014 Ecological Indicators
comparable & transparent
Cloutier et al 2014 Ecological Indicators
EBI ecosystem service bundle index
Van der Biest et al 2014 Ecological Indicators
reductionistic but integrative
Van der Biest et al 2014 Ecological Indicators
audience appropriate, scaleable, & comparable
Van der Biest et al 2014 Ecological Indicators
ei best principles
ei best principles
visual integrated quantitative transparent audience appropriate scalable & comparable interactive & accessible
implications for environmental assessment
to tackle environmental management we use !ecological models ecological/environmental indicators ecosystem services !Primary value is heuristic. !However, their real power lies in setting the future boundaries, barriers, incentives, and terms for positive environmental decisions.
Oreskes et al 2007 Science
Leong 2014 on uncertainty
Ultimately, we should be managing humans not resources.
inspired by Ludwig et al 1993 Science
resources
http://louisdietvorst.wordpress.com/tag/complexity/ http://www.nature.com/scitable/content/the-extreme-complexity-of-the-e-coli-14457504 http://blog.digital.telefonica.com/2013/02/18/tony-poulos-complexity-kills-simplicity-sells/ http://visualign.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/productspace.png http://www.smartinsights.com/digital-marketing-strategy/customer-acquisition-strategy/strategies-to-reach-and-engage-online-audiences/ http://harvardmagazine.com/2011/05/fathoming-metabolism#article-images http://www.smartinsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Microsoft-PowerPoint-13.png
primary TED talk on simplicity ocean health index Ecological Indicators journal
visuals
exercise: convert complicated into complex.
1. measure 2. visualize & map 3. integrate 4. implicate*
The 4 steps.
*correlation, causation, & statistical modelsuncertainty
exercise: convert complicated into complex.
Option A. Visualize a single day and assess impact.
activities
food
spending environmentalimpactlog relate
exercise: convert complicated into complex.
exercise: convert complicated into complex.
Option B. Calculate your footprint with & without one major driver.
exercise: convert complicated into complex.
my life with & without flights for research
www.myfootprint.org
exercise: convert complicated into complex.
Option C. Develop your own index for a personal issue.
exercise: convert complicated into complex.
Sleep Caffeine
Transportation Food
Impact