Cristina Madrid-Lopez

Center for industrial Ecology, Yale University.

DEALING WITH THE WATER-FOOD-ENERGY NEXUS

EMBRACING COMPLEXITY

(IN INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY)

THE CASE OF INDIAN PUNJAB (I)

Rural Population

5-9

15-19

25-29

35-39

50-59

70-79

1,000,000 0 1,000,000

RURAL

Million people

Age

Wo-men

Men

1,000,000 0 1,000,000

URBAN

Wo-men

Men

Country Agriculture

value added (% of GDP)

GDP (current

109 USD)

p.c. GDP

(current USD)

Life expectancy

at birth, (years)

Population,

106 people

Benin 32 6.6 690 58 9Rwanda 32 5.6 520 62 11

Togo 31 3.2 500 55 6Malawi 30 5.4 360 53 15

India 18 1,400 880 65 1,200Uttarakhand 10 12 1,200 -- 10

Punjab 31 42 1,500 72 28

Kerala 16 51 1,600 74 33

Strange Patterns

??

THE CASE OF INDIAN PUNJAB (II)

Oversized cereal production (4/27 mill ton)

1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Wheat Maize RiceGram Cotton GroundnutsSugar cane Rapeseed and mustard Barley

Mill

ion

ha

1980 1990 2000 20100.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0K2O

P2O5

N

Mill

ion

To

nn

es

0.0

1,000.0

2,000.0

3,000.0

4,000.0

5,000.0

Private canals

Other

Mill

ion

ha

0.0

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

Electric

DieselMill

ion

s

High Impact

Water

Energy

Land

?

COMPLEXITY IN IE

Complex

Adaptive

Metabolic

Socio-Ecosystems

Society

Technol. Networks

Social Networks

Ecosystem

Other

Other

Other

JIE April´09, April’15

Services, Emergy

Understanding of Complexity Expands the Reach of industrial Ecology (Ehrenfeld 2009. JIE)

Indu

stria

l Eco

logy

THE CHALLENGES OF THE NEXUS

Example of complex systems Degrees of complexity

3. Different Levels1. Delimiting Systems

Energy

FoodWater

n (Punjab)Hierarchical networks

2. Different Scales

$ m3

haton

h

THE CHALLENGES OF THE NEXUS

Hierarchical networks

n

n-2

n-2

n-2

n-2

n-2

n-1 (Agriculture) n-1 (Industry) n-1 (Households)

Example of complex systems Degrees of complexity

3. Different Levels1. Delimiting Systems

Energy

FoodWater

2. Different Scales

$ m3

haton

h

THE CHALLENGES OF THE NEXUS

Hierarchical networks

n n-1 n-1 n-1

n-2 Rice

n-2 Wheat

n-2 Tractor

n-2 HH

n-2 Pums

Example of complex systems Degrees of complexity

3. Different Levels1. Delimiting Systems

Energy

FoodWater

2. Different Scales

$ m3

haton

h

THE CHALLENGES OF THE NEXUS

Hierarchical networks

Example of complex systems Degrees of complexity

3. Different Levels1. Delimiting Systems

Energy

FoodWater

2. Different Scales

$ m3

haton

h

n

Nodes

Arcs

Georgescu-Roegen

FUNDS =

FLOWS =

A PROPOSALThe Framework:

MuSIASEM (Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism)

(Giampietro 2003)

(Giampietro et al 2009)

Nexus(Giampietro et al 2014)

Property/system Societal Metabolism(s-1, s, s-1, s-2)

Ecosystem Metabolism(e-1, e, e-1, e-2)

BiophysicalExchange (Flows)

Social Flows Ecosystem Flows

Organization (Funds) Societal Integrity Ecosystem Integrity

B

A

D

C

Georgescu-Roegen

FUNDS =

FLOWS =

Nodes

Arcs

A PROPOSAL

Property/system Societal Metabolism(s-1, s, s-1, s-2)

Ecosystem Metabolism(e-1, e, e-1, e-2)

BiophysicalExchange (Flows)

Social Flows Ecosystem Flows

Organization (Funds) Societal Integrity Ecosystem Integrity

B

A

D

C

Social/Technological

(Flow/Hour)

Technological

(Flow)

Techn/Ecosystem

(Flow/ha)

Social

Human Activity (hours, relations, etc)

Ecosystem

Ecosystem fund (ha, m3, etc)

The Framework:

MuSIASEM (Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism)

(Giampietro 2003)

(Giampietro et al 2009)

Nexus(Giampietro et al 2014)

RESULTS

HA 220 Gh

INTERNATIONAL s+2

INDIA s+1

PUNJAB s

109 USD

Agriculture Production (s-1)Households (s-1)Other Paid Work (s-1)

ELP 1.8 USD/hrELP 0.9 USD/hr

ECOSYSTEM e

hm3

SW GW Salt Nitr Fluor0%

50%100%

Imp...

Water Land

Pressure106 Tone

ECOSYSTEM e

AG3%

PW*6%

HH91%

Wheat42%

Rice28%

Crops17%42006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0%

5%

10%

15%Remittances as % of GDP

PUNJAB s

Food (1015 J)

Energy (1015 J)

Water (109 m3)

GDP (109 USD)

800

300

200

Imports Internal supply Exports

?

?

Support PriceSubsidies

20

56,000hm3

RESULTS

HA 220 Gh

INTERNATIONAL s+2

INDIA s+1

PUNJAB s

109 USD

Agriculture Production (s-1)Households (s-1)Other Paid Work (s-1)

ELP 1.8 USD/hrELP 0.9 USD/hr

ECOSYSTEM e

hm3

SW GW Salt Nitr Fluor0%

50%100%

Imp...

Water Land

Pressure106 Tone

ECOSYSTEM e

AG3%

PW*6%

HH91%

Wheat42%

Rice28%

Crops17%42006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0%

5%

10%

15%Remittances as % of GDP

Support PriceSubsidies

20

56,000hm3

RESULTS

HA 220 Gh

INTERNATIONAL s+2

INDIA s+1

PUNJAB s

109 USD

Agriculture Production (s-1)Households (s-1)Other Paid Work (s-1)

ELP 1.8 USD/hrELP 0.9 USD/hr

ECOSYSTEM e

hm3

SW GW Salt Nitr Fluor0%

50%100%

Imp...

Water Land

Pressure106 Tone

AG3%

PW*6%

HH91%

Wheat42%

Rice28%

Crops17%42006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0%

5%

10%

15%Remittances as % of GDP

Support PriceSubsidies

20

56,000hm3

CONCLUSIONS

Including complexity in IEBetter delimitation of systemsHelp to locate and connect methodologies: LCA, IO, MFAIdentify relevant indicators and narratives

LCA

SociologicalStudies

MFA

GIS

IO Climatic Models

Nexus Fill Data Gaps “Sudoku Effect” Connect Water, Energy and other

Networks

n

n -1

n -1

Policy and Planning Identification on major constraints Complex definition of feasible options “Sit at the table”

Possibility of discussion

CREDITS

Giampietro et al. 2014. An Innovative Accounting Framework for the Food-Energy-Water Nexus. Application of the MuSIASEM approach to three case studies. (Environment and natural resources management WP, 53, FAO)

Giampietro et al. 2014. Resource Accounting for Sustainability Assessment. The nexus between energy, food, water, and land use. (Routledge)

Madrid et al. 2013. Water Use Sustainability in socioecological Systems. A multi-Scale Integrated Approach. Bioscience 63(1)

Madrid & Giampietro, in press. The water metabolism of socio-ecological systems: Reflections and a conceptual framework. Journal of Industrial Ecology.

Collaboration FAO

Center for Industrial Ecology

Further Research on the Nexus and fracking

IANEX (2015-2017). Integrated analysis of the nexus: the case of hydraulic fracturing

7FP Marie Curie Fellowship

EMBRACING COMPLEXITY: DEALING WITH THE WATER-FOOD-

ENERGY NEXUS

Cristina.MadridLopez@yale.educristinamadrid.wordpress.com ppt

Center for Industrial Ecology

Social (Punjab) Ecosystem (Watershed)

Water Exchange

Water Flows (2010) (30 year pattern) Water Flows

Organization

Societal Funds Ecosystem Funds

India

F 20·106 tonMI 0.2 USD/kg

Punjab SocietyHA 241·109hF 4·106 ton

Punjab Ecosystem

International Market

F 3·106 ton

Other functionsCereal Production

HA 3 %F 27·106 ton

HA 97%

WY 0.5 ton/m3

ClimateSupply 460 mm

Transboundary

Supply ?

Surface bodies

Soil

Aquifers

Appropriation:Erosion 45%

Appropriation:Ramsar in Danger 100%

Appropriation:Water table-1 m/year

Groundwater

Soil Moisture

Surface Water

Recharge21

Recharge21

Recharge?

WFL 31 km3

WFL 26 km3

WFL 1·km3

WFL 15·km3

Production Factor

Human rightCultural element

WMR 9·m3/h

WMR 3·m3/h

WMR 95 Lpd