Complexity in Public Policy: Metaphors and Methods

Philip Haynes

What do we mean by policy? Government action Linking of decisions Intervention – political power

What do we mean by policy? Implementation – management,

professionalism… Multidisciplinary

Policy Process Policy as a rational process

Many perspectives on policy

Making sense of it all?

Patterns Time and Space

Patterns

Action over time - policy trends

Spatial levels - global, national, local, organisation, team…

Policy systems

National Government

Local Government

Policy organisations

External Factors

External Factors

Complexity Theory Complex dynamic systems are constructed by

the interaction of instability and stability. Includes chaos theory, but goes beyond it

Instability

Stability

Edge of Chaos

Complex or complicated?

Some core metaphors1. Instability (chaos)2. Nested systems 3. Attractors (order in disorder)4. Interaction (not cause and effect)5. Self organisation (order from within)

Chaos and instability

Instability and chaos in policyPrivate residential social care homes, aged 65 and over, Eng.

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

Year

tota

ls

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

annual % change

Types of change

Instability

0

20

40

60

80

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

output over time

perc

enta

ge

change

Types of change

Complexity

0

1020

3040

50

6070

80

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

output over time

pe

rce

nta

ge

ch

an

ge

Policy and Time

Evolution of macro policy Which path does policy action take?

1. Path dependency

2. Punctuated equilibrium

3. Complex stability-instability

Some core metaphors Instability (chaos) Nested systems (fractals)

Nested systems

Local Government

Central Government Sub National

Government

Organisation AOrganisation BActor, 1., 2, 3, etc

-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Some core metaphors Instability (chaos) Nested systems (fractals) Attractors (order in the disorder)

Attractor UK inflation (t-1) 1987-2004

Attractor UK inflation 1987-1990

Attractor UK inflation 1990--1997

Attractor UK inflation 1997-2005

Attractor UK inflation 1987-2005

Attractors - qualitative

Kontoupolous – ‘competing logics in public policy’

Marketisation

Consumerism

User involvement

Professionalism

Managerialism

Citizenship

Bureaucratic rules

Some core metaphors Instability (chaos) Nested systems (fractals) Attractors (order in the disorder) Interaction (rather than cause and effect)

A

B

Feedb

ack

System Interaction

Some core metaphors Instability (chaos) Nested systems (fractals) Attractors (order in the disorder) Interaction (rather than cause and effect) Self organisation (Order from within)

Self organisation

Methods

How we can make sense of such complexity?

‘We maybe able to able to learn a lot about the kind of dynamics involved in the functioning of such systems…Complexity theory underscores the importance of contingent factors… No general model can capture these singularities.’

Cilliers, 2001, p.145

Qualitative Comparative MethodCharles Ragin Use of quantitative thresholds to make

qualitative judgements Better consideration of cases Multiple ‘complex’ paths to outcome

Single quantitative model

As complex patterns

QCA – truth tables

H W M S CH A AR Out id

0 1 1 0 0 0 0 C AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND

0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 GERMANY

0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 GB

0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 US

0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 AUSTRIA

0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 HUNG

0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 NOR,CAN

1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 POLAND

1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 JAPAN

1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 SPAIN

Logical Statements

Outcome 1 = higher expenditure on LTC policy

h * (M*s*ch) + (m*S*a)

N= (8) (5) + (3)

Country statements

h * m * S * ch * a * ar

(GB and USA)

Patterns – workflow diagrams

Clearing

Subject strength

Student services

Student stressSystem Stress(Info. Systems)Timetabling

Student InductionPublicity

Learning and Teaching delivery

Assessment

Personal tutoring

Research grants

Open days

Staff expertise

Staff turn over Research publications

Examination Boards

Progression

Awards and Graduation

Staff deployment

Higher Degree Recruitment

Staff stress

Student retention

Admissions

Indicator Dashboard

Student TargetsGrants awarded

StudentRetention

Publications cited

Budget

19.78 SSRs

Implications for practice

‘Decision makers should be content with setting minimum specifications, establishing boundaries and letting the system settle into a condition that satisfies the constraints placed on it.’ (Kernick 2004, p137)’

Airport paperback: five point summary Don’t micro manage Do both synthesis and analysis

(the big picture is an important as the detail) Celebrate positive feedback systems Some places are trapped in negative

feedback, consider intervening on a large scale.

Listen to local context and ‘stories’