compilation of international trade-in- services statistics in spain: itrs vs. enterprise survey

WTO, Geneva (Switzerland) 2-4 February 2011

Global Forum on Trade Statistics: Measuring Global Trade - Do we have the

right numbers ?

José A. Isanta Head of Unit (ITS Survey)e-mail: [email protected]

Business Statistics Directorate

Compilation of International Trade-in- Services Statistics in

Spain: ITRS vs. Enterprise Survey

www.ine.es



right numbers ?

Institutional set-up. General description of the BoP/ITS collection

system-Banco de España (BE) is responsible for compiling and disseminating BoP statistics in Spain

-BoP statistics are mainly based on ITRS and some direct reporting

-BoP item Other Services is currently estimated by ITRS. Future: INE’s ITS Survey??

-The ITS survey was jointly designed by INE and BE in 2004-2005 as a precaution against ITRS probable expiration in the future



right numbers ?

Institutional agreement INE-BE to estimate BoP-Other Services with a

survey-Gentlemen’s agreement to be formalised in near future when survey reliability is verified

-The survey is included in the National Statistical Plan and is fully financed by INE

-INE sends survey’s micro and macro data to BE to be compared to those obtained by ITRS -Survey results (levels) are not disseminated by INE, only indices and yearly variation rates



right numbers ?

INE-BE responsibilities for the survey

INE is responsible for,

- Building & maintaining business registers- Design, programming & printing all questionnaires- Sampling design- Fieldwork organisation- Training staff- Edition and imputation procs.- Grossing-up- Final Tabulations- Methods, studies and analysis (eg: response comparison, geographic breakdown)

BE is responsible for,

- Design questionnaires with INE- Sending quarterly ITRS reporters/figures on foreign receipts & payments (Other Services) to INE- Design the Survey’s Collection and Methods Manual with INE- Participate in training courses to INE’s fieldwork statisticians - Methods, studies and analysis (eg: microdata comparison)



right numbers ?

The Survey

Aim

Value of imports and exports of services by residents of Spain vis-à-vis non- residents.Travel and transactions through commercial presence are outside the scope of the survey

Scope

Population: Resident institutional units (enterprises or other organisations). Time scope (fequency of reporting): the calendar quarter



right numbers ?

Sampling Design(introduction)

-Lack of an administrative register or another source to play the role of a single population frame to select a representative sample.

-The information of reporters on foreign receipts and payments of Other services (ITRS) is a good starting point.

- Additionally, it was decided to use other populations coming from different Spanish institutions.



right numbers ?

Sampling Design(Sub-populations SP’s and Frames

F’s)Institution Sub-population (SP) Source availability/

agreed availabilityFrames (F)

Banco de España (BE)

SP1: Register of reporters on foreign receipts and payments on Other services (ITRS)

Monthly/Quarterly

F1: Stable units from SP1

Spanish Tax Agency (TA)

SP2: Register of Large enterprises’ VAT returns

Monthly/Monthly

F2.1:VAT returns on international transactions in goods or services?

F2.2: VAT returns on domestic transactions

Instituto Nacional de Estadística(INE)

SP3: Central Business Register

Yearly

F3: SP3 – enterprises with NACE: A, B, L, P, Q - enterprises with fewer than 10 employees



right numbers ?

Sampling Design

(Sampling procedure)

-Sampling technique: A classical stratified random sampling procedure on each frame with equal probability of selection, but selecting more of the sample in those strata with a higher number of enterprises trading in services with non-residents according to BE data.

-Stratification variables: principal economic activity at the 2-digit level of NACE rev.1 and enterprise size measured in number of employees (size intervals). Geographical dimension has not so far been used when stratifying



right numbers ?

Sample size and rates: 2005 vs. 2010

2005

N n n/N(%)

BE 4,126 4,126 100%

TA.1 12,094 1,581 13.07%

TA.2 9,370 1,102 11.76%

INE 146,402

3,495 2.39%

TOTAL 171,992

10,304

6%

2010 N n n/N(%)

# Strata

BE 5,193 5,193 100% 40

TA.1 14,773 1,453 9.84% 54

TA.2 13,306 982 7.38% 55

INE 161,452 2,987 1.85% 147

TOTAL 194,724 10,615 5.45% 296



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Questionnaire

Filter question: Did you export or import services during the reference quarter ?

Yes/No

Two main tables

- Services Filter Table to help respondents tick the correct service’s box

- Table to register import/export values and counterpart country for the services previously ticked

Questionnaire formats-Paper, electronic (e-questionnaire), website

and XML-web



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Questionnaire (Services filter table)

51 EBOPS sub-items



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Questionnaire (exports/imports table)

Exchange rate: quarterly average orMonthly average, last day of the quarter,last day of the month, transaction day, others

Literal descriptionof the ITS transactionaccording to the respondent

Service codeaccording to previousTable:’ Filter table’

Counterpartcountry

Monetary value in € for each transaction



right numbers ?

Other Services’ Exports (ITRS vs. Survey)

E XPORTS OTHE R S E RVIC E S :BoP (blue) VS . ITS S URVE Y (red)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

05T1 05T2 05T3 05T4 06T1 06T2 06T3 06T4 07T1 07T2 07T3 07T4 08T1 08T2 08T3 08T4 09T1 09T2 09T3 09T4 10T1 10T2

Mill

ion€



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Other Services’ Imports (ITRS vs. Survey)

IMPORTS : OTHE R S E RVIC E SBoP (blue) VS . ITS S URVE Y (red)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

05T1 05T2 05T3 05T4 06T1 06T2 06T3 06T4 07T1 07T2 07T3 07T4 08T1 08T2 08T3 08T4 09T1 09T2 09T3 09T4 10T1 10T2

Mill

ion€



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BoP-Other Services (ITRS) vs. ITS (Survey)

(Comparison by type of service)

Exports by Type of Service(2009)

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

Type of Service

mio€

BoP (ITRS)

ITS (Survey)

Imports by Type of Service (2009)

05.000

10.00015.00020.00025.000

Type of Service

mio€

BoP (ITRS)

ITS (Survey)



right numbers ?

Strengths and weaknesses of the ITS collection systems

ITRS strengths:

- Census of foreign receipts and payments on services transactions over threshold (50,000 EUR)

ITRS weaknesses:

- Threshold increases- EC and ECB Regulations on statistics and finance- Integration of bank settlements and netting/clearing settlements-Cash accounting principle

Survey strengths:

-Flexibility-Accrual accounting principle-Gross values-Improves services classification

Survey weaknesses:

- Sampling error- Incomplete reports-Manuals’ definitions may not be directly transferred to questionnaires



right numbers ?

Survey Response Rates

2009

Sub-populations

Sample size

Respondents (questionnaires

returned)Response rate (%)

Non-respondents

or null reporters

Real Non-response rate (%)

BE 5105 4806 94,14% 1408 27,58%TA.1 1488 1427 95,90% 805 54,10%TA.2 1006 958 95,23% 799 79,42%INE 3096 2841 91,76% 2682 86,63%

TA1+TA2+INE 5590 5226 93,49% 4286 76,67%TOTAL 10695 10032 93,80% 5694 53,24%

Survey's Response and non-response rates

Conclusion: More than 50% of surveyed units do not report exports or imports in the questionnaire. Do all null reporters cheat or don’t they really trade services at international level ?



right numbers ?

Matching units’ response rates

2009

Sub-populations

Matching units (ITRS & Survey)

Non-respondents or null reporters

Non-Response rate (%)

Null reporters

Null reporters rate (%)

BE 3738 737 19,72% 669 17,90%TA.1 501 175 34,93% 170 33,93%TA.2 209 95 45,45% 92 44,02%INE 188 71 37,77% 71 37,77%

TA1+TA2+INE 898 341 37,97% 333 37,08%TOTAL 4636 1078 23,25% 1002 21,61%

Response rate for matching units

Conclusion: More than 20% of total matching units are null reporters under suspicion. This rate for stable units reaches 18% (very high !!)



right numbers ?


(Matching units analysis)2009

Sub-populations

Total Exports

BoP

Exports Matching

units (Survey)

Exports Matching

units (ITRS)

Exports Non-respondents

or null reporters

(ITRS)% /

BoP

Total Imports

BoP

Imports Matching

units (Survey)

Imports Matching

units (ITRS)

Imports Non-respondents

or null reporters

(ITRS)% /

BoPBE 33684 31130 33684 3522 10,46% 32109 27749 32109 3246 10,11%

TA.1 - 943 803 165 - - 1212 1489 268 -TA.2 - 175 351 67 - - 275 251 74 -INE - 118 115 26 - - 101 261 133 -

TA1+TA2+INE 11317 1236 1269 259 2,29% 10633 1588 2001 475 4,47%TOTAL 45001 32366 34953 3781 8,40% 42742 29337 34109 3721 8,71%

Matching units exports (mio€) Matching units imports (mio€)

Conclusions:Due to ‘cheats’ or ‘lack of understanding’ the survey supposedly misses more than 8% of total BoP-Other services exports and imports. In the case of stable units it reaches 10%



right numbers ?


(Non-matching units analysis)

Conclusions: 1.Survey should include more ITRS reporters in the sample and 2. ITRS is missing some reporters captured randomly by the survey

2009 2009

BoP Total

ITRS reporters

not included in the Survey %

Survey Total

Survey units not reporting in ITRS

% / BoP Total

Survey units not

reporting in ITRS

(expanded)% / BoP

Total

# Reporters 21396 16760 78,33%# Sampled Units 10695 5829 27,24% - -

Exports (mio€) 45001 10047 22,33% Exports (mio€) 40496 1294 2,88% 3612 8,03%Imports (mio€) 42742 8632 20,20% Imports (mio€) 40310 1220 2,85% 4624 10,82%

BoP data from ITRS Data from ITS Survey



right numbers ?

Economic crisis and threshold raise effects on ITRS

Year

# Bop-Other Services reporters (ITRS)

Yearly variation rate (%)

Other- Services Receipts (mio€)


Other- Services Payments (mio€)


2002 49130

------------- --------------- --------------- --------------- --------------- --------------- ---------------2007 59229 52863 536982008 24811 -58,11% 52903 0,08% 51061 -4,91%2009 21396 -13,76% 45001 -14,94% 42742 -16,29%

BoP-Other Services reporters (ITRS), receipts and paymentsReporters Receipts Payments

Note: Reporting threshold up to 50,000 EUR came into effect in 2008 (Spain). In 2007, around 60% of reporters reported transaction values below 50,000 EUR



right numbers ?

High degree of concentration

Conclusion: On average, more than 3000 reporters were necessary in 1999-2002 to cover 80% of both exports and imports of services. In 2009 only 1245 reporters. Problem: Reporters volatility (10% decrease of receipts + payments between 2008 and 2009)

2009Coverage

degree Receipts Payments Both70% 497 435 59180% 1022 869 124590% 2416 2042 3080100% 14522 11850 21396

# BoP-Other Services reporters (ITRS)



right numbers ?

What’s next….- Regulation EC 924/2009 related to border payments in the Community and SEPA (ITRS expiration by law ??). -Joint decision BE-INE about the survey’s future:

* Sampling re-design, incorporating most of ITRS reporters into the sample? * Due to the high degree of concentration just have an Annual ITS Survey and a Quarterly

ITS Survey able to capture 80% of total exports and imports (UK model).*Study: Directives 2008/8/CE and 2008/9/CE related to the place of services provision and VAT returns

-Adoption of NACE 2009, 6BPM, MSITS and EBOPS 2010.-



right numbers ?

Thank you for your attention

For further contact:[email protected]

Do we have the right numbers?

No, we probably don’t, but we are getting closer and closer

compilation of international trade-in- services statistics in spain: itrs vs. enterprise survey

Documents

services itrs

services statistics

exports of services

itrs survey results

survey reliability

surveygentlemens agreement

itrs probable expiration

design questionnaires